+OUTLINE OF POINTS TO HIT—
+
+ * probability theory only cares about theories that predict the data
+ * don't care about predictions vs. retrodictions
+ * don't care about "jumping to conclusions" if those conclusions later turn
+ out to be correct (if the reasoning process _were_ merely jumping to
+ conclusions, then they _wouldn't_ be correct (with overwhelming
+ probability))
+ * suppose you asked aliens to explain why some humans males trans
+ * obvious hypothesis: they're really psychologically feminine due to brain intersex
+ * suppose you further said that some subset of MtTs doesn't fit this profile; what would be the next guess?
+ * Something to do with males are usually obsessed with female bodies maybe??
+
+