+[Okay, but where do the two types come from? The graph is just showing cause-and-effect, but if this were actually a Bayes net, there would be numbers representing a probability distribution, and I claim that the distribution clusters into two types]
+
+[The sexual orientation node increases femininity and decreases AGP, so those pathways are anti-correlated; however, the fact that straight AGP men also vary somewhat in their degree of femininity; some accounts have emphasized how masculine (even hypermasculine) AGPs are, but this seems wrong]
+
+[People who don't quite seem to fit the coarse taxonomy might still be explained by the graph and a threshold model]
+
+[Why do I believe this? All six arrows in the graph are something that I think we have a huge weight of evidence for, either formally, or just looking at the world]
+
+[Sexual orientation effect on femininity documented by Lippa and Bailey-Zucker]
+
+[femininity->transition would be obvious even if it weren't in th]
+
+[ETLE sexual orientation AGP v-structure, and effect of AGP on transition documented by Lawrence]
+
+[I don't have a good formal citation on cultural factors, but it seems really obvious if you've been paying attention for the last decade]
+
+[quantifying the two-type effect:
+Lippa 2000 "Gender-Related Traits in [...]"
+2.70 effect of femininity for gay vs. not-day and 1.07 for "any" vs. "no" attraction to men
+mean GD score for non-lesbian women as 0.31; mean score for gay men was 0.30!
+—oh, maybe I want to be using Study 2, which had a better sample of gays
+GD occupations in study 2
+gay men are at .48 (.14); straight women at .36 (.13); straight men at .68 (.12)
+that's d=–1.61 between gay and straight men
+a gay man only needs to be 1 standard deviation (.48-.36 = 0.12) more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight women
+whereas a straight man needs to be (.68-.36 = 0.32) 0.32/0.12=2.67 more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight woman—that's rarer, but not impossible
+]
+
+[okay, my inner Tailcalled is telling me I need to quantitatively model the joint effect of AGP and femininity to see if two types actually emerge]