-LW/aAL—
-_ You and What Army? Or, The Wisdom to Know the Difference
-_ different ways of factoring a Bayes net of the same data make different predictions about interventions
-_ COVID life-years (rather than deaths)
-_ Signals, Deception, and the Precession of Simulacra (LW)
-_ Contra Scott Alexander on Mental Illness; Or, Oh God, Please Don't (aAL/LW)
-_ Comment on Wireheading /r/rational
-_ Second Derivative (Paul Christiano on growth timelines)
-_ Selective Reporting and Clustering
-_ Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization—marginally neglected truths are more
-_ Explicit Disjunction vs. Contradictory Arguments from a Bottom Line
-_ How they Pin It Down: Equal Environments Assumption Edition https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cXzTpSiCrNGzeoRAz/conjunction-controversy-or-how-they-nail-it-down
-_ Social Construction is an Embedded Agency Problem
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