X-Git-Url: http://unremediatedgender.space/source?a=blobdiff_plain;ds=sidebyside;f=notes%2Fnotes.txt;h=de96759de1756c737de956736ddc8648650fa74a;hb=068a979f06cb9cbd7dd85eb4830f1373d6e0873f;hp=42147652b68a697b9bf2cd271ca2c19931f3226e;hpb=a98ea188fc3b8f8fc6b56a48d6da22ecb36b766f;p=Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git
diff --git a/notes/notes.txt b/notes/notes.txt
index 4214765..de96759 100644
--- a/notes/notes.txt
+++ b/notes/notes.txt
@@ -1,3 +1,5 @@
+I don't think we're in equilibrium; I don't think everyone knows what's going on
+
fragmentsâ
O Wad Some Power the Giftie Gie Us; Or, the Identity Dysphoria Trap (school dysphoria)
@@ -19,6 +21,10 @@ El Goonish Shive (http://www.egscomics.com/index.php?id=2328 http://www.egscomi
Choir
+It's actually HELPFUL when friends point out an insonsistency between my self-report and my behavior. Ben asked, "Do you care about that?" And I said, "No", and Ben said, "I think you partially care, which is why you're so upset about this"
+
+
+
"The Distance Between Mars and Venus: Measuring Global Sex Differences in Personality" http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0029265
Stop Expecting Social Reality to Make Sense
@@ -234,6 +240,7 @@ etymology fun fact: "male" comes from the Latin malus, meaning "bad"
on a Facebook thread about female-dominated gym classes, a female acquaintance writes, "My class focuses on weightlifting and it's still all women (including one trans, oddly enough)." (You wouldn't say "oddly enough" if you actually believed that trans women are women!)
This is so great (super-AGP 13th century Jewish narrative)
+https://web.archive.org/web/20160420122918/http://www.on1foot.org/text/even-bochan-kalonymus-ben-kalonymus
http://www.on1foot.org/text/even-bochan-kalonymus-ben-kalonymus
http://www.transtorah.org/PDFs/On-Becoming-A-Woman.pdf
@@ -322,6 +329,8 @@ https://np.reddit.com/r/asktransgender/comments/8hob8i/why_do_i_do_this_nsfw/
Lindsay Shepherd/James Damore shipfic
+https://medium.com/@aytchellis/is-it-possible-to-change-sex-8d863ce7fca2
+
Brazillian woman moves to Sweeden and cherished egalitarian culture: https://medium.com/@sayhellotovanessa/the-oddities-of-being-an-invisible-woman-8570394caa0d
most of men's attractiveness is cues of upper-body strength: http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/284/1869/20171819
@@ -398,12 +407,6 @@ NRx-inspired (sigh ... yes, unfortunately) pointsâ
is an [X]. Most of them, in fact, are not. Nor is it absolutely guaranteed
that every single [X] will be a party member. But most of them, in fact,
are"âthus, requiring representaiton of Xes benefits the party
- * practice of deferring to designated-victim trans women _makes the trans
- women worse people_: if you know that you can win a dispute by playing the
- transphobia card, that incentive shapes your life (Moldbug: discussion of
- "ignoble privilege" in "Gentle Introduction" pt. 3)
- * kind of like how _the right to be sued_ is an important part of legal
- personhood: the possibility of recourse is necessary for trust
feminists are masculinized: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4158978/
@@ -613,7 +616,6 @@ the recording here also has stop-recording exchange: https://gendertrender.wordp
Blanchard on the record about "homosexual" terminology: https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/999680624817508352
-no one remembers pronouns: https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/1060563648027021314
https://twitter.com/RachelRMoran/status/1060311474780946432
@@ -845,6 +847,8 @@ https://www.gaystarnews.com/article/trans-man-sauna/amp/?__twitter_impression=tr
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07238-8
more Yearwood: https://abcnews.go.com/US/transgender-teens-outrun-track-field-competitors-critics-close/story?id=55856294
+https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2810857-andraya-yearwood-knows-she-has-the-right-to-compete
+
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6179341/Outrage-transgender-child-groomer-legally-female-womens-jail.html
@@ -912,12 +916,6 @@ https://www.reddit.com/r/itsafetish/
https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/11/30/36431918/if-the-future-is-nonbinary-its-a-bleak-one-for-women
-"Obviously I socially gender him as male as per his preference."
-
-"I wouldn't call it a 'preference' exactly."
-
-"I gender him male as per his philosophical commitments"
-
https://www.theverge.com/2014/4/28/5661118/lab-mice-fear-men-not-women-big-problem-for-science
Mad Ouroboros on the Somewhere Else Discord speculates that "don't call me cis" gendercrits and AFAB enbies are having the same internal gender experience
@@ -947,3 +945,2349 @@ New from me: ["Trying to Be Explicit"](), a short story that starts out being ab
... I don't know, guys. I'm really sorry.
-----
+
+I don't understand why it's so hard to _either_ get the _minimal_ flag out in public, _or_ shut up about all related topics. Obviously, I can't fault anyone for not wanting to put potentially-controversial content under their own name, because I use a pseudonym myself. (I also believe in genetic-ancestry-mediated intelligence differences, and I _don't write about it_.) The problem that I'm trying to rally against is that if _all_ the nice-famous-shiny "rationalists" repeat flawed philosophy in support of the "pro-trans" political coalition (I linked four specific examples in a previous email; it really seems to be the consensus position), and _none_ of them loudly, publicly correct themselves when confronted with better philosophy (because the better philosophy happens to be more easily construed to support the "anti-trans" political coalition), then _we have lost the Mandate of Heaven_.
+
+-----
+
+Duolingo gave me the sentence "Ihre Frau schreibt" ("Her wife/woman writes") and I was very confused for a few moments. ("Well, the mouseover tooltip hint gives 'Her wife' and 'Your wife' as phrase translations, so it has to be 'your wife'âbut wait, 'ihre' is similar to 'ihr', which is the plural you-all, so ...")
+
+the MADTv sketch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgcLfohtFbE
+
+field report on TIMs in lesbian spaces: https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/9zgivf/peak_trans_viii_tell_your_story_here/ec8zecy/
+
+And like, I share all the same moral ideals (I was born in 1987 and grew up in California; I'm not some [bigoted redneck](http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/30/i-can-tolerate-anything-except-the-outgroup/)).
+
+Yearwood again: https://www.theday.com/article/20170530/SPORT03/170539907
+
+looking through scrollback with "Wilhelm"â
+
+ "Politics Is the Mind; Loyalty to Existing Political Coalitions Is the Mind-Killer"
+
+genuine improvements and noise, and that we should be looking for clever strategies to roll back some of the noise while keeping the good parts
+
+"Wilhelm": "The preliminary results are not good, and they only look good inside a holiness bubble that is going to pop"
+
+I hate you guys so much
+I'm making a pointed and deliberate effort to hate you so that I can continue to learn from you without getting eaten by your egregore
+
+Roissy says that the sum of masculinity and femininity in a relationship must sum to zero, and I can see how putting all of the masculinity in the man and all of the femininity in the woman is kind of useful in that it lets you reap the benefits of comparative advantage
+but I don't want to be the guy, and like everyone else, I want my preferences to be high-status, which the status quo is sort of doing for me, albeit in a delusional self-destructive way that I hope is fixable
+
+"Restore patriarchy!" "Never! I mean, I see the point you're trying to make, but the real solution is embryo selection for more nerd girls!"
+
+I hear what you're saying, but, but, without bones of sympathy and approval from feminist women, where am I going to get my bones of approval and sympathy from feminist women?? It's like you're telling me to make fewer paperclips!
+
+
+"Power that is not aligned with natural law leads to evil, because it requires constantly denying reality and punishing dissenters."
+"OK, but I still want my own breasts"
+
+but I am starting to get a more detailed appreciation of how the thing-that-is-good-that-I-want-to-call-"individualism" has a lot of missing implementation details; "Everyone's self-reported self-identity must be uncritically respected" social norms are trying to maximize a certain kind of individual choice (you not only get to choose your gender, you can even write-in a new one!), but that choice is taking place in the context of a very specific delusional cultural environment that penalizes other kinds of individual choices (like criticizing the delusions)
+
+I'm sad that my update from "Blanchard is probably wrong because everyone's self-report says it's wrong" to "self-reports are pretty crazy" probably has implication for "Red Pill is probably wrong because everyone's self-report says it's wrong"
+
+when I asked the Licensed Clinical Social Worker how rare I was (wanting to try HRT while loudly denouncing trans ideology as retarded), he said he gets lots of nonbinary/"transfeminine", but had never met anyone who identified as AGP
+he wants to talk to the team and have another appt before endocrinologist referal
+
+we should ban identities until we can figure out what's going on
+
+that would require taking power, which is hard
+
+but it's a good thought experiment... if you were appointed Gender Czar, what would you do? This is a rhetorical question, but I think what any decent person with good judgment would do is very, very different from what's happening.
+
+also, it's really personally convenient for me that the delusional identity politics happen to be favorable to my life-defining paraphilia, so I kind of have incentives to play along a bit
+
+as long as you don't describe yourself fully accurately
+
+yeah, it's really annoying, because in addition to my obligately autogynephilic sexuality, I'm also an obligate ultra positivist nerd who doesn't like playing along with cultural narratives that "she" thinks are false
+you don't want me as Gender Czar, because I kind of like what's happening (to the extent that we can get away with it without being punished by Gnon), just not how people talk about it
+if I get to be Eugenics Czar at the same time, I might be able to make up for it?
+
+You being Gender Czar would be an improvement to what's happening now. I'm not comparing you to my ideal Gender Czar, the thought experiment is that you compare your own judgment to Gender Moloch.
+even if you didn't have any power over people, just the ability to give high status public statements would improve the rationality of the general area and shut down some of the holiness spirals occurring
+
+so while you're being successfully marginalized by the currently-reigning egregores, I'm happy to learn some sociology from you NRx guys, because I am an aspiring rationalist, and you have a lot of insights
+but if you start gaining power in spaces that I care about, I kind of have to fight you to the death
+for her
+
+W: 'Roles require that people support a consistent interface and contracts (in the programming sense). "Identities", "spectrums", "questioning", "finding oneself", and individualism in general break down the contracts and interfaces that others used to be able to rely on. The result is atomization, alienation between genders, and below replacement fertility. It's like a class in a dynamically typed language, where you have no idea what the methods or returned types are.'
+
+unless you have lots of fine-grained roles, "make sure the fence-sitters take the typical route" is really bad for me (screws over everyone who doesn't like the standard role, but isn't weird enough to qualify for a nonstandard one, and statistically, there are a lot more sort-of weird people than really-really weird people)
+
+Yes, exactly: https://twitter.com/pangmeli/status/1079097805250224130
+
+perceiving sex: https://twitter.com/janeclarejones/status/1079334679411675136
+
+"thru a conversation with my sister, I was, for the first time ever, able to distinguish between My Type and My Transition Goals" https://twitter.com/esten/status/1080709264899923968
+
+Consequences for other people: I don't know! That's for those other people to decide, not me! But whatever they decide, they'll probably get more of what they want if they have more accurate beliefs! Rationality, motherfuckers! Do you speak it!
+
+I'm saying that the thing that the Zeitgeist is encouraging people to interpret as an atomic identity is almost certainly actually some kind of very specific bug in male sexual psychology that can be interpreted and acted on in various ways! One possible interpretation/action-plan is to split it into two parts: (1) a happy romantic fantasy that I want to indulge somewhat without taking it too far, and (2) a moral responsibility to self-modify at least somewhat in the direction of being more aligned with women (in the sense of AI alignment) even if my volition would naturally be less aligned in the absence of the perceived moral responsibility!
+
+ I agree that I'm being socially disruptive, because I think there are sufficiently serious problems with the current equilibrium of what people are doing, that I've decided to gamble my reputation on staging an intervention! Pretty foolhardy, huh? Well, as evolutionary biologists could tell you, men are all about risk!
+
+ Charity is _not_ about using polite language. Charity is about trying to _see_ what the other motherfucker is doing right!
+
+ misinterpretation of misdirected male sexuality
+
+I agree that a lot of people seem perform the verbal behavior of saying, "A woman is anyone who wants to be!" But like, you know, maybe they're lying!
+
+Human psychology is a very high-dimensional configuration space! If you've bought into an ideology that says that everyone is equal and that therefore psychological sex differences must be small-to-nonexistent, then you can choose to selectively ignore the dimensions along which sex differences are relatively large, and when you're locked into that worldview, it does indeed genuinely look to you like individual personality differences swamp sex differences! And when you're locked into that worldview, looking at the dimensions along which the differences are relatively large is genuinely painful! Once you notice this, maybe you can think of clever strategies to better serve the moral ideal that makes psychological-sex-differences denialism so appealing, while making use of the additional power you gain by letting yourself look at the whole configuration space!
+
+https://arcdigital.media/what-is-gender-identity-10ce0da71999
+
+One way of describing the trigger for me having gone bezerk starting in February is that I'm horrified that my neoreactionary friends are visibly way smarter than my rationalist friends. This is terrible, because kabbalistically, neoreaction is about being evil, and rationality is about being smart. It is written that being smart is more important than being good for humans (because trying to be good typically involves artificially restricting your hypothesis space; if good people don't permit themselves to even consider X, then they'll have trouble modeling a world in which lots of people make their living off X). But I really didn't expect that, in practice, trying to be evil makes you smarter than trying to be smart does!
+
+the oscillation between "I'm embarrassed and upset about {thing} that I don't want to acknowledge or explain, but that makes me not want to acknowledge or explain the fact that I feel embarrassed an upset" vs. "Yes, {thing} is real; real things are allowed to appear on maps"
+
+Goodhart's Lawyer (credit "Wilhelm")
+
+the ugly gray communist 90% crap superstimuli aren't a threat to the values of our ancestors, but the really well done ones, are
+I am the threat
+(the cartoons with female superheroines that make the AGP male heart melt ... but who are noticeably not drawn from the same distribution as ACTUAL WOMEN)
+
+Taking a sabbatical; I'll try to think of it as being a housewife supported by my past self of the past three years
+
+Siezing the Means of Home Production: http://archive.li/9NRrS
+
+!!Con speakers: I count 1 "they/them" woman, 9 probably-actual-women, 3 known/obvious MtF, and 3 "they/them" men (implied 16 normal men remaining (including me?!))
+
+https://abc30.com/homeless-women-harassed-in-shower-lawsuit-says/3514544/
+
+"Jesse Singal is a transphobic piece of shit!"
+
+Separately, may also be worth considering https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preference_falsification ⦠when deciding what merits "piece of shit" status? Who knows if some of the ppl you follow are (e.g.) autogynephilia truthers, but don't write about it under their real name because they see the reaction to Singal?
+
+"That's a suspiciously specific hypothetical."
+
+
+There were a couple of young black women ahead of me at the convenience store who I found physically attractive; I'm given to understand that there's a whole PUA literature about "day game" where you talk to random women, and whether you could have an intellectual conversation with them (across that kind of culture and IQ gap) is besides the point?? It's just so unthinkable to me
+I'm not claiming that my upbringing got the right answer
+Rather, that I'm actually incapable of thinking of other answers independent of rightness
+such that I'll never, ever get to hit that
+I can barely speak of this to anyone but you (I mean, I could, but I do have you as my designated-evil friend)
+one of them was wearing spandex pants
+never get to hit that or be that
+
+Every year, the people who are isomorphic in opinions to you become more masculine (because of everyone moving left), which means they are going to have more inferential distance on gender dysphoria.
+
+Contra affirms self-ID: https://twitter.com/ContraPoints/status/1086351168123621376
+
+divorce court required pronouns: https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/9zgivf/peak_trans_viii_tell_your_story_here/eea6imc/
+
+
+Maybe blame my father (a Bernie Sanders supporter) for accidentally having a copy of _Atlas Shrugged_ on the family bookshelf where I could get at it when I was sixteen.
+
+a man whose initials are B. D. once wrote, "Ultimately, for me, it comes down to a simple moral question: does my right to have a model that accurately predicts your behavior trump your right to control your own narrative? Because if your narrative doesn't match your behavior, then I have to either doublethink around my own perceptions, or reject your narrative. And which way I choose has consequences." (https://www.facebook.com/zmdavis/posts/10154814383695199?comment_id=10154814575900199&reply_comment_id=10154815175090199&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R%22%7D)
+
+
+-----
+
+https://www.scottishathletics.org.uk/42874-2/
+
+https://drethelin.tumblr.com/post/129304925958/gods-actually-exist
+
+----
+
+the analogy my brain came up with is "yes, I understand that we are genetically aimed at protecting and allying with our kin to increase our inclusive genetic fitness, and that this has caused lots of followon effects in human psychology, including in me and my family. however, please stop calling her my 'fake kid'."
+
+yeah, that's a pretty good analogy
+oooh
+under this analogy, "nonbinary people who aren't successfully androgynous are less legitimate" seems to map to "interracial adoption is less legitimate"
+which
+is not the most comfortable bullet to bite
+it took a little bit of deliberate effort to do the thing of spontaneously generating the uncomfortable bullet and saying "ooooh" rather than flinching away from it
+
+-----
+
+"I'm not at war with trans _people_; I'm at war with the trans-activism memeplex" is a great motte, but to what extent can you war a culture without hurting the people who are devoting their lives against it?
+
+ incentivized/selected for self-delusion, which is really unfair to the people who aren't delusional about it
+
+https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/24/technology/amazon-facial-technology-study.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur "Amazonâs system had more difficulty identifying the gender of female and darker-skinned faces" Do humans have the same problem?! (it's easier to pass FtM than MtF)
+
+
+You have some latitude because you have a pony tail and don't come off as a dudebro, so this makes you look ingroup and non-threatening
+However, watch out for the zeitgeist shifting to where those signifiers might not be enough in the next few years to get away with as much
+I also kind of have breasts?? Does that help???
+
+https://www.kesq.com/news/female-water-polo-players-confronted-by-naked-man-at-palm-springs-swim-center/987276858
+
+woman wanted roller derby as women's space: https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/9zgivf/peak_trans_viii_tell_your_story_here/eesm1d7/
+
+https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/01/is-it-now-a-crime-to-like-a-poem-about-transgenderism/
+
+he/him lesbian also pissed off at trans community: https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/9zgivf/peak_trans_viii_tell_your_story_here/efo1z6g/
+
+"damn one extremely bad way to start my day is having the receptionist at slack say I look like a male celebrity [...] I'm so mad. wow. like. I look like this right now, how could anyone ever think that was an okay thing to say???" (It was a compliment, dummy!!) https://twitter.com/esten/status/1092472430465929216
+
+"what the hell is it gonna take to get you all to stop calling me a dude? like fucking seriously? I'm changing my name, my pronouns have been different for a year and a half, I've been on HRT for 14 months, and a friend just misgendered me" https://twitter.com/esten/status/1098450396102615040
+
+another UK arrest: https://twitter.com/BustedWench/status/1092435717555437569
+
+https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/02/why-are-the-police-stopping-a-74-year-old-tweeting-about-transgenderism/
+
+argument seen on Twitter: "transwomen are transwomen" is like "gays can be civil-unioned". Counter: marriage is wholly socially-constructed, but biological sex is real
+
+"ffs I'm legally practicing ...": https://twitter.com/FeministRoar/status/1092850802299936768 (patient doesn't care about legal fiction)
+
+https://medium.com/@JonnnyBest/the-truth-about-michigan-womyns-festival-and-trans-women-a-correction-899d8e49f655
+
+https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6687123/Mother-arrested-children-calling-transgender-woman-man.html
+
+https://twitter.com/Scientific_Bird/status/1089265017969668097
+
+Is the OP deleted? https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/23piReu6vmfskHyh7/dragon-army-theory-and-charter-30min-read
+
+http://thefutureprimaeval.tumblr.com/post/156517718308/you-may-not-be-interested-in-politics-but
+
+https://twitter.com/Indy_Leya/status/1095257325118648320
+
+"Trying to Be Exp": mention how we don't have shared language to describe what orgasm feels like
+
+there's a problem where if what you actually believe is extremely nuanced, and in some contexts you say something shorter and "punchier" (that's pushing back against a local majority: see "All Debates Are Bravery Debates"), people will ever-so-slightly misinterpret the punchier version and say, "Ah-ha!" like, I'm not _intending_ to motte-and-bailey, but _something_ has to get lost between the 5000-word nuanced version and the version that fits in a Tweet, and I'm sorry that the Tweet version is bailey-like
+
+one woman's precautions against men: https://twitter.com/editingemily/status/1095853582346141697
+
+telling the only woman in a karoke group: you're our only female vocalist, you should sing this part. I wouldn't say that if there was a trans woman in the room; it's a trivial example, but life is composed of these little things
+
+https://www.clearerthinking.org/single-post/2019/02/13/Is-language-influencing-your-beliefs-in-ways-you-dont-realize
+
+re "All Debates Are Bravery Debates": the G. Mitchell "Human Sex Differences" book phrases things in a weird way
+
+https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/fife/819644/mum-of-supermarket-toilet-sex-assault-victim-warns-freed-attacker-could-strike-again/
+
+Falsehood implies anything! https://twitter.com/Nespresso821/status/1097295455170555904
+
+https://twitter.com/every_lesbian/status/1097649372752461824
+
+http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/article/2019/02/the-vagina-monologues-a-feminist-production-with-a-necessary-asterisk
+
+https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2019-02-18/transgender-hormone-therapy-could-pose-heart-dangers I'm glad they at least named the journal (Circulation, Feb 18), but I wish they also included the article title for quick search
+
+https://www.lifesitenews.com/blogs/transgender-insanity-police-now-jailing-people-for-laughing-at-men-in-women
+https://www.lifesitenews.com/blogs/man-who-says-hes-female-enters-womens-bathroom-sexually-assaults-10-year-ol
+
+https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/7xnwed/facial-recognition-software-regularly-misgenders-trans-people
+
+https://web.archive.org/web/20190222094427/https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/
+
+more obvious AGP: https://twitter.com/Azure_Husky/status/1100865940986703880
+
+https://theunitofcaring.tumblr.com/post/180522920951/tumblr-is-brainwashing-a-generation-of-autistic
+
+"Got a job interview for a coffee shop. I look like I could be the hot lesbian barista, right?" https://twitter.com/isbeisbeisbe/status/1104007825116811264 But, but "hot lesbian" seems like the kind of thing men who objectify lesbians say, not actual lesbiansânot with Probability One, but in balance
+
+more self-gaslighting: "it's because i've actually done the work in my head to internalize that they're not men." https://twitter.com/Anarcho_Vampire/status/1104607455466545152
+
+The end of this comment (https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/azpeio/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_march_11_2019/eibaawa/) makes me think that Loury's adverse-selection mechanism also applies here: "Only hateful people express doubt that group differences are caused by self-fulfilling prophecies" is a self-fulfilling prophecy?
+
+Moldbug being less-racist: https://web.archive.org/web/20170720053316/https://medium.com/@curtis.yarvin/thanks-ian-this-conversation-has-only-gotten-more-civil-c5d1414ac817
+
+'saying that there are âTRUE trans peopleâ and âmistaken cis peopleâ is like saying there are âpeople who are biologically MEANT to have tattoosâ and âpeople who THOUGHT they wanted tattoosâ.' https://twitter.com/trialeterror/status/1100407836419346433
+
+https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8647171/transgender-woman-sexually-assaulted-girl-morrisons/
+
+Cohen's d visualizer! https://rpsychologist.com/d3/cohend/
+
+When I say "I like you a lot" to Jessica, it's a weird interaction between "I'm in love with her because I'm modeling her as an actual woman", but "I'm less afraid of hurting her"âbeing that forward to a cis woman would be creepy. Notice how strongly Sarah reacted to the counterfactual marriage proposal.
+
+http://loyolaphoenix.com/2019/03/menstrual-products-in-luc-bathrooms-disappearing-and-tampered-with/
+
+a FB acquaintance writes: "!!! someone finally messaged me a graphic fantasy of raping me, completely unprompted! I'm a real woman now!" And then, in the comments: "don't be sad! it was hot"
+
+a FB acquaintance writes: "I mean.. there was a time in my life when I had a single token cis friend, and I was very happy with that situation. [...] I certainly am tempted to go back to a mostly trans-exclusive social life, even if there's still some misunderstanding of my gender in that situation." (Wow, that's pretty cultish!!)
+
+https://sportsscientists.com/2019/03/on-transgender-athletes-and-performance-advantages/
+
+AGP/furry combo comic: https://twitter.com/WolFirry/status/1110259481479467010
+
+read this: https://medium.com/@kemenatan
+
+biological sex denialism https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/01/opinion/trans-women-feminism.html
+
+Contrapoints peak: https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/9zgivf/peak_trans_viii_tell_your_story_here/ek0a1qv/
+Harassment peak: https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/9zgivf/peak_trans_viii_tell_your_story_here/ek0wehg/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/itsafetish/comments/bb27gx/i_didnt_get_an_erection_when_putting_on_a_ball/
+
+"According to our newsgathering partners at the News and Tribune, Brown asked managers, 'How do you know I'm not a female?'" https://www.wthr.com/article/clark-county-man-arrested-sexually-assault-woman-walmart-bathroom
+
+https://www.dailysignal.com/2019/04/11/234-house-democrats-2-republicans-co-sponsor-bill-forcing-schools-to-let-male-athletes-compete-on-girls-sports-teams/
+https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1006/text
+
+How do you know it wasn't just a straight friendship?? https://stevenuniversallyreviews.tumblr.com/post/184181025733/episode-108-future-boy-zoltron
+
+https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2019/04/lack-of-black-doctoral-students/587413/
+
+a Facebook acquaintance (who didn't pass very well when we met in October): 'Of course, those of you who know me on other platforms see me being very lesbian every day, to such a degree that I have been described as "the community gay"'
+
+https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/12/radical-feminist-warned-refer-transgender-defendant-assault/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/bhulic/i_cant_do_this_any_more_i_need_to_divorce_my/
+
+thanks for the marketing advice! I should _definitely_ take that into account if I ever decide to put more effort into "persuading people", which sounds like something that an aspiring instrumental rationalist would care about. Perhaps unfortunately, however, I'm an aspiring epistemic rationalist: all I can do is try to communicate what I actually think and feel using clear language (and standard rhetorical techniques like sarcasm, satire, &c. that people know how to interpret even if they wouldn't be clear if someone naïvely took the words literally). If other people aren't persuaded by this ... maybe they _shouldn't_ be! Maybe I can live with that!
+
+I guess I can't argue with that, but I wish I knew what happened to my wallet
+
+https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/ray-blanchard-transgender-orthodoxy/
+
+circle game paranoia: http://www.unz.com/isteve/bad-juju-in-oak-park-il/
+
+https://arcdigital.media/on-transwomen-and-sports-54fe1a8963e
+
+https://medium.com/@katieja/young-children-reality-sex-and-gender-3421f4f165f1
+
+"please like think before you go around using "afab" or "amab" to refer broadly to groups of people in your tweets. neither of these categories are like coherent social categories in any way, and are often used in ways that perpetuate trans misogyny" https://twitter.com/folkpunkjunk/status/1140278990072102912
+
+https://medium.com/@aytchellis/talking-past-each-other-about-trans-gender-1da8e058caf8
+
+https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/teen-17-who-sparked-row-for-saying-there-are-only-two-genders-suspended-from-school-for-three-weeks-a4173736.html
+
+
+"> Yet somehow a lot of people seem to think they can throw away basic ration
+ality 101 as soon as their inside view tells them they're on to something.\n\nI think we (\"we\") sh
+ould encourage some degree of cognitive division of labor rather than assuming a unified, consensus-
+driven rationality community. If your inside view tells you that you're really on to something and y
+et \"everyone else\" seems to think you're crazy, that's a _really interesting_ learning opportunity for _someone_! Maybe you _should_ go off on your own and explore that thing really hard for a while, build your own models, and then come back later and try to sell the rest of the community on what you think you've learned. Certainly, this is a high-risk bet (most of the time, \"everyone else\" is correct and the contrarian will end up having wasted years of her life on something useless and crazy), but sometimes, those pay off!
+
+ "comment": "Sophia\n\n> Why do you refer to mutual attempts to replace others' narratives as a zero-sum game?\n\nNew guess: because I'm incredibly prone to inventing spurious conservation laws when I get upset. Last time it was conservation of happiness/suffering (http://zackmdavis.net/blog/2013/03/religious/); this time, it's ... um, more complicated.",
+
+
+ "> I am curious though, when you have the belief that you are being programmed by your phone, are you capable of evaluating how probable that is?\n\n... it's complicated. I _still_ have this vague, intuitive sense that it would be useful to compare the variation in my behavior that's explained by variation in phone notifications with the variation in the phone's behavior that's explained by me, but I don't know how to make this more precise (and I'm being far more precise/lucid/non-delusional about it now than I was at the time)."
+
+"I mean, another part of it is that \"homophobia\" isn't going to be a natural category in human psychology. Suppose the personality trait is actually \"risk aversion with respect to social change.\" This could manifest as \"homophobia\" for people who grew up before _Obergefell v. Hodges_, but something completely different for people growing up today.",
+
+comment": "Protip: \"Have you ever thought of harming yourself?\" is actually code for \"Are you stupid enough to answer 'Yes' to this question so that I can imprison you in order to create the illusion that my job is useful and extract thousands of dollars from your health insurance company?\"",
+
+"Suppose political coalition C is promoting ideas P and Q, and I agree with P, but Q seems really really REALLY bad. When speaking as an individual about my ideas with people who understand ideas, I definitely want to be specific and just say \"P is good, but Q is very bad,\" without saying anything for or against either coalition C or its rival coalition D. But insofar as most people don't have the spare cognitive capacity to separate P and Q, and instead just think of people as \"one of the Cs\" or \"one of the Ds\", I might want to avoid phrasing things in a way that people would construe as support for C. Because Q is _just that bad_."
+
+Elizabeth, for that matter, one wonders how many trans people have ever seen a Muslim in real life and vice versa. If more of them had, maybe these groups wouldn't be in the same coalition!",
+
+"I agree with Kara that social-justice folk find it useful to model alt-right folks as politically profiting from being debated at all. But likewise, alt-right folks find it useful to model social-justice folks as politically profiting from shutting down debate. These elementary game-theoretic observations, while correct, don't help us decide which laws and cultural norms will have which consequences.\n\nI suspect a lot of people who don't consider themselves competent to evaluate consequences might want to strategically support whichever coalition currently happens to support more open debate (because of reasons: http://zackmdavis.net/blog/2017/03/an-intuition-on-the-bayes-structural-justification-for-free-speech-norms/), and then switch sides when that coalition becomes too powerful and starts trying to silence _its_ enemies. However, when evaluating this suggestion of mine, you should take into account that I have an ulterior motive for getting people to oppose the social-justice coalition, which I am at war with for my own personal reasons."
+
+"Really sorry if this sounds rude! This is literally just how I talk now!"
+
+"If you think you're smart enough to optimize the universe all by yourself, sure. I'm not that smart! I want to join coalitions that reward their members for being transparent, because I predict that gangs of monkeys that divide up the last banana using program equilibrium will outcompete gangs of monkeys that sell the last banana in a second-price auction, who will in turn outcompete gangs of monkeys that literally fight over the banana."
+
+ "On the other hand, \"software to tell if someone is actually more emotionally distraught than you might think\" is pretty cool as a machine-learning/statistics trick! I wonder what interventions could incentivize Facebook to just publish the model so that people could learn from it _without_ subjecting us to a future of the Facebook Community Operations Team stamping on a human face forever??"
+
+"Come to think of it, I actually expect the \"suppressing speech fuels conspiracy theories\" effect is _justified_ in a Bayesian sense: if the fraction of hypotheses-that-people-want-to-ban that are true is higher than the fraction of hypotheses-in-general that are true, the fact that a lot people want to ban a hypothesis is probabilistic evidence that it's true.
+
+"Given that English has gendered personal pronouns and it's not feasible to redesign the English language to change this, marking babies in some way to indicate their biological sex (with clothing color, or perhaps by gluing something to them) can be a useful social technology, because it allows people to just say, \"She's such a good baby!\" without having to ask about the baby's sex. Now, obviously, we don't want to indoctrinate innocent babies into oppressive gender roles that might not be a good fit for them, and I agree that gendered clothing increases our risk of falling into this well-trodden failure mode. But maybe there's some way for smart people who understand the problem in sufficient detail to avoid that failure mode, without becoming pawns in a memetic war against \"noticing that biological sex continues to be a predictively-useful concept.\""
+
+ people treat an organisation with more respect and status than simply bunch of people\n\nYes, exactly! This is an exciting arbitrage opportunity for agents who care less about respect and status (in the eyes of people who respect institutions; they may care about an alternative gray/black market of respect and status), and more about Doing Things That Make Sense Even If That's Not the Way Things Are Done Around Here.",
+
+"I think sufficiently self-aware, sufficiently prosocial narcissists and sociopaths deserve love! I hope I don't have any ulterior motives for saying this! (I don't _think_ I'm a narcissist or a sociopath, but people can have false beliefs about themselves.)",
+
+My personal paraphrase of the common theme in this and other \"What were they thinking??\" thinkpieces is: \"Defecting against the victimhood identity politics mind-virus is more important than whichever schmuck happens to be President\". I live in non-swing-state California and voted for Gary Johnson, but I actually agree with this now, if only because I'm terrified that the victimhood identity politics mind-virus is trying to eat the next generation of people like me and no one else seems to care, to the extent that I had a delusional nervous breakdown and spent three miserable days in a psychiatric hospital, which three days could have been longer if it weren't for my quick wit (specifically, the ability, when feeling threatened, to use verbal skills to manipulate social reality rather than describe actual reality), the fact that the other patients/inmates knew the security code, and Michael Vassar's willingness to pretend to be a doctor.\n\nI'm sorry to keep telling this story over and over, but this is analogous to a religious conversion experience (I want people to explicitly engineer social technologies that provide the good parts of traditional religions and institutions, but more fun and without the lies: http://lesswrong.com/lw/5t/can_humanism_match_religions_output/), and I don't have any practice being a missionary! Please bear with me!"
+
+who should be classified as having the Bad Man property and therefore be excluded from coalitions!
+
+
+ thanks for the marketing advice! I should _definitely_ take that into account if I ever decide to put more effort into \"persuading people\", which sounds like something that an aspiring instrumental rationalist would care about. Perhaps unfortunately, however, I'm an aspiring epistemic rationalist: all I can do is try to communicate what I actually think and feel using clear language (and standard rhetorical techniques like sarcasm, satire, &c. that people know how to interpret even if they wouldn't be clear if someone na\u00c3\u00afvely took the words literally). If other people aren't persuaded by this ... maybe they _shouldn't_ be! Maybe I can live with that!"
+
+
+I _really, really_ don't want to participate in an oppression Olympics; I think it would be _really really bad_ to try to settle social-norms disputes with a competition to see which coalition can rack up more probabilistic suicides. (Just think about what incentives that creates!) But for the people who _are_ going to make decisions on the basis of probabilistic suicides _anyway_, surely my suffering deserves to be counted, too?
+
+True male side/true female side: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FBgozHEv7J72NCEPB/my-way#AEZaakdcqySmKMJYj
+
+policing: "we definitely expect better models of gender out of you": https://twitter.com/atax1a/status/1157066530028265473
+
+
+My gender crusade becomes much less interesting insofar as it can be explained simply by me being born too early and not getting "kids these days." It's not that cultural change is necessarily bad; it's that I want culture to innovate in the direction of "achieving godlike understanding of objective reality and optimizing the hell out of it" rather than "playing mind games on each other to make it artificially harder to notice that we don't actually live in a Total Morphological Freedom tech regime."
+
+
+"Had I not transitioned, I would fear the power you have over me, and remain silent." https://aria.dog/support-all-your-friends/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/ftm/comments/cqplrh/how_do_yall_cope_in_mixed_trans_spaces/
+
+Raven is cosplayed more than any other Teen Titan
+
+[thousand-dollar ultra-realistic mask](https://www.creafx.com/en/special-make-up-effects/taylor-silicone-mask/)
+
+https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGTKL9LokHg (wait for the reveal at 0:44!)
+
+colorful sandals
+
+even my post-redpill intuitions endorse something like "White people can't be racist" and "Men can't be sexist", but rather than "-ism is power plus privilege", the rationale is "We're thick-skinned and have better things to do than play victimhood politics"
+
+
+ I thought it should be acceptable for someone to send one final "OK, sorry" message in response to being told to stop contacting someone
+where I feel like my position is analogous to Scott Aaronson's complaint about his police encounter: https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=3903 , that people who are in the process of complying should be treated with good faith; you don't want the cops to shoot unarmed men and defend themselves on the grounds of, "Well, he wasn't complying fast enough"
+
+"Every year, the people who are isomorphic in opinions to you become more masculine (because of everyone moving left), which means they are going to have more inferential distance on gender dysphoria."
+
+you can get away with a lot when you read as a lefty? At hack day, someone said they read about Pinterest's skin-tone debiaser tech being thrown out because it drew on very old papers by a EUGENICIST (article turned out to be https://www.wired.com/story/pinterest-skin-tone-search/ ), and I was like, Oh, interesting, so what was wrong with the research? That got an incredulous stare: "You mean, what's wrong with eugenics??!" And I'm like, no, that's not what I mean, I'm curious about the specfiic technical flaw, which is distinct from the author's odious views
+and then someone else related an anecdote about JPEG being racist (because the standard was defined to match old chemical photography, which was optimized for pictures of white people), which is the kind of legit answer I was looking for, to which I could respond with a proggy "Wooooooow"
+I know how to pronounce "shibboleth" correctly
+almost wish I had been brave enough to go for "It depends on what you mean by 'eugenics'; embryo selection looks super exciting" (the last time I said this in public, at my old company's holiday party the other year, I got a fair amount of horrified disbelief)
+
+the conjunction of (a) Katie Cohen getting beaten up by the police and dragged to psychiatric prison, (b) the Linux Contributor Covenant thing, and (c) the Brett Cavanagh thing has restored my "the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must"-sight, which may prove instrumentally useful for doing social science
+
+Kavanagh outgroup-male Till
+
+the Gods of the Copybook Headings might call it cuckoldry, but I call it Practice
+
+(I should confess that while part of the joy of hearing non-Berkeley-2018 views is the intellectual profit of engaging with ideas, a possibly-larger part is just relief at being able to punch right for once, now that I spend most of my time these days punching left)
+
+
+my insufficiently requited love "Beatrice" retweeted this: https://twitter.com/whodamanny/status/1045409509546446848
+
+whatever actually happened in that interview is less interesting than the fact that Manny thinks this makes him look good. The candidate ... raised his voice? That's it??
+
+But if I find this kind of thing baffling/annoying rather than outrageous, is that an inherent men-don't-play-victimhood-politics asymmetry, or is it just because I know outrage is not a winning move in the contingent environment of Berkeley 2018? (Contrast to black men feeling outraged at having security called on them friviously)
+
+my writing is not doing much on this front, because even if I don't get ostracized, people are just like, "Oh, Zack, he writes weird transphobic stuff but is otherwise OK" whereas people actually like and publicly-praise and listen to [...]
+
+there might be a lot of AGP-transitioners in the win condition
+just not the kind that enter women's bike races and gloat about it
+
+(I would still be at war with it if I thought I could win; unfortunately, Mother Nature has the big guns)
+
+Chesterson has many fences on his property
+I like the second-wave "Free to Be You and Me" space where you loudly insist that girls can do anything, but don't pretend that biological sex is fake, which is past some of the fences (quite a lot of them, really), but not as far as Berkeley 2018
+
+what I would really love to see in the open-source world is opposition to the trans agenda, from women, on radical feminist grounds
+but ... you know, there aren't very many women around to begin with
+
+I wonder what would have happened if Kavanaugh had been AGP and transitioned ten years ago, but all the other facts of the case were the same
+
+
+there's also the phenomenon of people who are aggressively SJWish also being noticeably not familiar about the position/community they're defending as detectible by shibboleth usage (someone I had a long back-and-forth on /r/slatestarcodex had never heard the term "deadnaming" before; tech guy with "he/him" in his bio spells "transwoman" as one word)
+(I spell "trans woman" as two words not because I believe the "it's just an adjective for a kind of woman" bullshit, but I know the shibboleths and so does my audience)
+but you never had to go to seminary to be offended by blasphemy
+
+psychology note about the Quillette meetup: I felt really uncomfortable with how the organizer (an older white man) wanted to talk about the dysfunctionality of black communities, not because I expected to disagree too much, but because he didn't make an effort to signal that he had a non-racial-animus-motivated reason to be interested in the topic (contrast this to how I constantly mention "I was on HRT for five months" during my campaign; I need to say that to show that I have skin in the game)
+Yeah, that seems a bit edgy for Quillette
+That guy was probably in cognitive dissonance and feeling the need to test the waters
+I felt especially awkward being at a table with him in public in the context of the black waitress complementing me on my Steven Universe T-shirt five minutes earlier
+
+I guess I see your point that if I can't trust these clowns to even put a "social trust" term into their utilitarian pseudo-calculation for open bathrooms, then I shouldn't trust them on open borders, either
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/itsafetish/comments/cp1tap/gender_euphoria_genital_engorgement_whats_the/
+
+https://humanvarieties.org/2017/07/01/measurement-error-regression-to-the-mean-and-group-differences/
+
+I'm imagining that there's some margin at which the shame and intimidation is counterbalanced by E pur si muove concerns. (Conditional on the hypothesis that, in fact, e pur si muove.)
+
+http://www.trans.cafe/posts/2016/6/27/17-signs-i-was-transgender-but-didnt-know-it
+
+https://medium.com/@transstyleguide/alternatives-to-afab-and-amab-d7cf8fe20a72
+
+There are Facts About Males that neurotypicals probably don't explain in words? Something about how a gentleman who doesn't want to be more specific, if he were going to be more specific, might end up using the word curvature. But maybe I've already said too much.
+
+support group can't mention anatomy: https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/bripts/peak_trans_ix_tell_your_story_here/f6wjry3/
+
+https://www.lipstickalley.com/threads/transwomen-in-my-ptsd-group-and-performing-femininity.1004483/
+
+Damore new job: https://twitter.com/JamesADamore/status/1034623633174478849
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/itsafetish/comments/d54b7x/thank_you_and_goodbye/
+
+"Genuine question: Are there any straight transitioned women out there? Who werenât previously gay?" https://twitter.com/IndiaWilloughby/status/1204773053986725889
+
+https://twitter.com/LaraAdamsMille1/status/1199132705478381568
+
+-----
+
+If someone wants to rewrite this post because they can do a better job of it (perhaps, as Jim suggests, because the post has objective flaws that are causually related to the author's crimes), that's great.
+
+If someone wants to re-write the post because we want to use the idea but it would be embarrassing to give the author credit for it, that's just PR-driven plagiarism. And I don't think it would even work.
+
+Suppose we include "Affordance Widths" in the Best-of-2018 collection as-is. If /r/SneerClub gets word of it, they'll point and sneer and say, "Look, the robot cult blog just canonized a post by a rapist! What terrible people they are!"
+
+Suppose we get someone to re-write the post because of the reputational risk. If /r/SneerClub gets word of it, they'll point to this discussion and sneer and say, "The robot cult blog rewrote a post because they're worried about reputational risks. But the fact that their rationale was 'reputational risks' suggests that they don't know that rape is wrong. What terrible people they are!"
+
+And they would kind of have a point? The function of "bad reputation" is to correspond to things that are actually bad.
+
+-----
+
+https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/12/12/childrens-transgender-clinic-hit-35-resignations-three-years/
+
+'someone saying they're MtF is like waving a big red flag in front of me that says, "I will try to seduce you in the creepiest way, talk your ear off about model trains, and violate your boundaries with my fetishes."' https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/dy7241/peak_trans_x_tell_your_story_here/faj48v9/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/eacgc5/a_tim_in_healthcare/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/eab3wy/relieved_to_see_a_woman/
+
+TW/TERF rape fantasy https://twitter.com/LaraAdamsMille1/status/1209258661769621506
+
+peeling back another layer of the onion of algorithmic bad faith, "Why are you being so nice to me here?! I obviously don't deserve it!" was pretty performative on my part (not because I was consciously putting on an act, but in the sense that all human social behavior is an act), a socio-psychological "immune response" developed in response to a tendency I perceive for people to collude to be nice to each other (pretending to agree with whoever they're currently talking to) rather than coordinating to produce shared maps. So in contrast to the usual pattern of people optimizing their speech to deflect blame from themselves, I put on a show of allocating blame to (my past) self to signal that I care about Justice (people being blamed the correct amount), even when that amount of blame would be unjust if someone else were doing it rather than it being performative social self-injury. I HOPE this comment makes sense, but let me know if it instead reads as illegible Vassarian moonspeak.
+
+"Telling soldiers in a war that their bullets are destroying valuable human knowledge is not hard to understand - but they often won't respond the way you'd hope." https://twitter.com/ben_r_hoffman/status/1122953098761330692
+
+"Being misgendered means that how you saw yourself, just a woman casually discussing a TV show or a movie, suddenly gets stripped away and replaced with "...but of course we know you're really a man." Itâs nightmarish.
+
+It means that all of the other people who have been saying 'she' might have been just 'playing along.'" well, yes
+
+ https://byrslf.co/i-wasnt-annoyed-at-your-misgendering-me-b13cd9480b2c
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/eh0wz9/tim_at_my_gym_has_terrible_etiquette_in_the/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/ehy9td/transwomen_in_the_changeroom_my_experience_as_a/
+
+four studies using multivariate methodology in personality: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/12/sex-differences-in-personality-are-large-and-important.html
+
+Yglasis's mask slips: https://archive.md/jf7ur
+
+bronies: https://twitter.com/TransSalamander/status/1045911272670339072
+
+https://feminina.eu/2017/10/24/why-blanchardians-are-scientifically-unsound-and-no-its-not-because-activists-hate-them/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/dy7241/peak_trans_x_tell_your_story_here/feycktw/
+
+https://twitter.com/kittypurrzog/status/1220842510248886272
+
+https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2020/01/24/42658513/seattle-school-board-takes-steps-to-dismantle-gifted-program
+
+"For goodness sake, I mean your pronouns are on your damned jacket!" https://twitter.com/BrieCayne/status/1221212541977800704
+
+academic freedom on campus: https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-university-of-washington-should-not.html
+
+https://www.unz.com/isteve/post-gay-marriage-cont/
+
+"Dodging learning people's deadnames like some sort of willfully ignorant ninja." https://twitter.com/yaahc_/status/1222542847322099713
+
+https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2013/08/31/it-must-be-said/
+
+the people you're afraid of aren't going to read a blog whose URL is _unremediatedgender.space_
+
+[Felix Conrad](http://transcendmovement.com/felix-conrad-confesses-that-he-secretly-believes-in-autogynephilia/)â
+
+[link is dead, but it's allegedly in his Kindle book]
+
+> Imagine the following scenario: a researcher discovers that one ethnic group has a lower IQ than another and that the cause is geneticânot educational. In my opinion that research is as dangerous as a toxic virus and Iâd wipe any hard drive that contained such research. That is intellectual integrity in my opinion.
+
+Protip: you don't have to preemptively commit suicide! Wait for other people to kill you instead! (Desired privacy settings for this update: people smart enough to understand metaphors.)
+
+"how did you realize you were non-binary": https://twitter.com/QueerGirlEmilie/status/1225517017035350016
+
+religious affiliation is shared environment https://twitter.com/ent3c/status/1161717179802443778
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/f1nedr/tims_bragging_in_female_weight_lifting_subs/
+
+during a Feb 2020 discussion of salary transparency: "For those of you telling me I make too much: [...] I'm one of the top women in my role." https://twitter.com/theavalkyrie/status/1228528673726140416 She transitioned in May 2018!! (https://blog.thea.codes/i-am-thea) Last year's taxable income: $360k https://twitter.com/theavalkyrie/status/1228457455350235137
+
+> prairie dogs are not a type of dog and guinea pigs are not a type of pig https://www.reddit.com/r/GCdebatesQT/comments/f4dmsf/all_for_those_who_find_the_term_cis_offensive_how/fhqah6k/
+
+> The function of 'trans' in that term is to indicate that they're not actually a type of woman.
+>
+> Compare: counterfeit money, toy gun, soy milk, glass pearls, veggie meat, faux fur https://www.reddit.com/r/GCdebatesQT/comments/f4dmsf/all_for_those_who_find_the_term_cis_offensive_how/fhpxjx0/
+
+"privative adjective": http://www.cogsci.ucsd.edu/~coulson/Fake/fakeguns.htm
+
+> Long story short, I was pro-trans until I had exposure to actual trans people. Then the wrongthink started creeping in: wow, this looks an awful lot like a social contagion and wow, this looks an awful lot like a homophobic fetish and wow, this looks an awful lot like lesbian self-erasure and wow, this looks an awful lot like a protracted exercise in medically-assisted self harm. https://www.reddit.com/r/GCdebatesQT/comments/f1finv/formerly_qt_supporters_who_are_now_gc_what_made/fh5tzj5/
+
+> being a trans woman is 10% war on hair & 90% coming to terms w the fact that wanting tits ultimately led to u joining an anti nazi coalition
+https://twitter.com/avaavita/status/908416401312018433
+
+http://www.generation-online.org/c/fcbiopolitics2.htm
+
+selection effect: "TERFs never pass" https://www.reddit.com/r/GCdebatesQT/comments/emgk0t/to_qt_a_solution_to_trans_in_sports/fdyj2wl/
+
+https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/female-prisoner-takes-government-to-court-after-alleged-assault-by-transgender-inmate-n5wtg2nf7
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/itsafetish/comments/e8qa7x/im_just_scared_that_if_i_cum_ill_think_im_not/
+
+> If you are angry or think it's "unfair" for a trans girl to beat a cis girl in a sporting event then fundamentally you donât think trans girls are "real" girls. Itâs that simple. [Bullet-biters in both camps agree!] https://twitter.com/chasestrangio/status/1229407118119391234
+
+> Never mind that, for instance, a recent employment tribunal decision in the UK directly contradicts them by stating that an absolutist belief in immutable and binary sex is incompatible with the human dignity and rights of others. https://medium.com/@KatjaT/a-pinch-of-expertise-plus-a-ton-of-speculation-a85684120160
+
+nostalgia: https://queersingularity.wordpress.com/2010/06/23/with-regards-to-the-gender-question-i-advise-feminist-revolution/
+
+-----
+
+but notably, the debate is "played-out" _not_ because anyone has pinned down a decisive flaw in my _extremely modest_ core philosophical claims (which do _not_ immediately imply any particular policy position about trans issues, but would be _relevant_ for _figuring out_ the optimal social policy, which I explicitly claim not to have done), but because I'm thinking sufficiently outside of the _Zeitgeist_ that I can't be allowed to win arguments in publicâ"They will form a united front and gaslight you," as Ziz put it ()
+
+_Extremely modest_ core claim: cognitively useful categories need non-circular truth conditions that make predictions about many observations (meta-level version: , object-level version: ); the only serious reason _not_ to do this is to make coordination earlier (meta-level version: , object-level version: ), but "this shared category makes coordination easier" is a _very different_ rationale from "this shared category makes people happier directly", which I claim is "wireheading" from an AI-design perspective, and you would expect a different _rationale_ to imply different decisions even in advance of having worked out exactly what those decisions should be
+
+I sometimes get sloppy and angry in real-time discussions (I'm a _lot_ smarter in asynchronous media) in a way that I often regret, but I think it should be sympathetic and understandable that it would be extremely frustrating when you put in a _lot_ of work over _many_ months spelling all this out at the length of many thousands of words, _and_ responding to critics (), and discovering that it mostly just ... doesn't matter, because the _Zeitgeist_ is just not responsive to careful philosophical arguments
+
+okay, I still need to write another multi-thousand word post (again, probably two posts) explaining the "wireheading" claim
+
+_that's_ probably my problem; I need to write two more blog posts
+
+then, everyone will understand
+
+-----
+
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SqNvmwDxRibLXjMZN/and-say-no-more-of-it
+> Anything done with an ulterior motive has to be done with a pure heart.
+
+-----
+
+smart fascismâ
+> Cops don't spend a lot of resources prioritizing "drugs" as such. They face political pressure to deal with violence and property crime, which has clear intersections with drug activity. They'll use drug charges opportunistically to deal with people they want to get off the street, but the bulk of police activity is stuff I want to see enforced, against people I want to see incarcerated.
+https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/f6zuip/whats_the_most_controversial_opinion_that_you/fi90y07/
+> city administrations and law enforcement see things like minor drug charges as a way to harass people they want off the street for other reasons
+https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/f6zuip/whats_the_most_controversial_opinion_that_you/fibxyxl/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/f7sn2o/no_matter_how_feminine_they_want_to_pose_the_most/
+
+> the social justice mentality being as much a regular expression search as it is an ideology
+https://twitter.com/GabrielRossman/status/1229461398247198720
+
+https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/NiceJobBreakingItHero is a religious deconversion trope
+
+----
+
+A mother I know jokesâ
+
+> I'm gonna go ahead and buy underwear
+> does he happen to have a preference between briefs or boxer briefs
+> why is underwear so gender
+> "what's in your pants" "gender" "but -" "bought some gender off amazon"
+
+But, flies are actually functional.
+
+---
+
+in "memetics"/"social-control monkey warfare" world, there is no progresss; there is no citations; people just have the same argument over and over again, and whichever egregore has the most bodies and the most volume steamrolls the opposition into accepting their version of social reality
+
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GCdebatesQT/comments/dxtgh7/qt_do_you_encourage_other_trans_redditors_to_come/f7wng98/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/dy7241/peak_trans_x_tell_your_story_here/filh1fn/
+
+> "We must be guided by solidarity, not stigma," the director general of the World Health Organization warned on Saturday. "The greatest enemy we face is not the virus itself; itâs the stigma that turns us against each other."
+https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1229832977472946184
+https://archive.is/1pQ4p
+
+https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1230577418559270913
+
+coronavirus, Elizabeth Warren
+
+https://quillette.com/2020/02/02/i-may-have-gender-dysphoria-but-i-still-prefer-to-base-my-life-on-biology-not-fantasy/
+
+> Trans athletes are not a threat. We need to protect trans kidsâand all LGBTQ+ kidsâand ensure they feel safe and welcomed at school. I urge the Arizona legislature to reject this cruel bill.
+
+get ahead on perscriptions
+
+https://www.edge.org/response-detail/26714
+
+> It is easier to work in the service industry than to live as a trans woman who can't pass.
+https://twitter.com/GlamDamorous/status/1231985917633548305
+
+https://medium.com/@evakurilova/what-a-chinese-idiom-tells-us-about-gender-identity-ideology-91261e985d3c
+
+https://twitter.com/MxBdUnicorn/status/1232169845011165184 "Hey cis ladies can you not?" (But if you were actually trying to be a woman, you'd be _interested_ in what they actually think, right?!)
+
+https://twitter.com/steve_shives/status/1233419627033694209
+https://archive.is/bqvvx
+> She wasn't complaining about cis men being allowed in a women's shelter. She was complaining about trans women being allowed in a women's shelter.
+
+Masterful obfuscation: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ER6TomCW4AIfoNG?format=jpg&name=large
+
+Eric Raymond gets ousted from his own organization: http://lists.opensource.org/pipermail/license-discuss_lists.opensource.org/2020-February/thread.html
+
+https://medium.com/@kemenatan/its-just-a-fetish-right-91cb0a4e261
+https://archive.is/AAyxt
+
+https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ER8fXJcXkAIn8G9?format=jpg&name=large
+
+
+> the people who produce the sort of media which fulfills the demand are themselves socio-demographically exactly like affluent white liberals (to give credit to Ta-Nehisi Coates, he is the exception). Ask yourself, when was the last time you read an op-ed or think-piece from an Indian convenience store clerk or a Bangladeshi cab driver? Almost always the op-eds and think-pieces come from professionals who likely experience the least "macro" aggression and the most "micro" aggression, and, who can speak the language of affluent white liberals and know exactly how to say the correct things
+> No working-class person says "white presenting." No immigrant says "white presenting." I have had friends in academia tell me that my children "present as white."
+https://www.brownpundits.com/2020/03/01/the-white-acting-mother-of-a-white-presenting-daughter/
+
+Vassarâ
+> I sometimes say we need 'quantum witch-hunts' where we assess the 'witch quantum number' of a social interaction without declaring anyone to be a witch (because witchcraft is an enactive process, not something associated with individuals)
+
+Bar chart of sex diffs: https://twitter.com/jurijfedorov/status/1225214491744489474
+
+https://twitter.com/NateTreme/status/1234980122727288834
+
+Inheritance of consensus: https://traditionsofconflict.com/blog/2018/8/1/the-cause-of-illness
+
+https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/03/04/i-was-cancelled-for-my-tweets-on-transgenderism/
+
+California sex-ed curriculum: https://twitter.com/PeavyPosy/status/1235342626502647809
+
+hear this being thrown around: https://twitter.com/LaraAdamsMille1/status/1235391042406490114
+
+disanalogy of cis/trans to gay/straight: https://twitter.com/radicalhag/status/1235623170339672065
+
+"this is the existence the people that want me to be trans want for me" https://twitter.com/0xCAFEBEEF/status/1235595792481570816
+
+NRx koans: https://archive.is/rFDZA
+
+This is actually a pretty clear example of no-win prejudice: https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/fe9rp8/asking_if_its_okay_to_join_a_sub_when_you_are_not/ (if asked, assumed to be seeking validationâbut what if they were actually trying to respect the boundary?)
+
+http://web.archive.org/web/20120717073425/http://www.james-g.com/
+
+You know, when a random Twitter person does it, it doesn't bother me much: https://twitter.com/ericlinuskaplan/status/1236740431427203073 It's specifically when it's impinging on rationalist-land that I'm at war.
+
+The motte-and-bailey: https://twitter.com/SwipeWright/status/1236894909547724800
+
+alleged gender dysphoria from cis ppl taking hormones? read later (I doubt) https://twitter.com/BringerOfRot/status/1237018352360579072
+
+https://twitter.com/epsalon/status/1237833281631993856 YOU KNOW GODDAMNED WELL WHAT THEY MEANT
+
+Vancouver Rape Relief https://twitter.com/piscesgurl69/status/1236884846858752000
+
+> Intelligence is competence at winning games and leftism-as-intelligence is a set of strategies for winning games where the victory condition is majority consensus
+https://twitter.com/0x49fa98/status/1064256082506203137
+
+> It's like a newborn duck with wheels
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/ffprqc/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_march_09_2020/fk83n3k/
+
+it turns out to be surprisingly useful to model the world as being made out of three things: people (who can be friends, enemies, or strangers), evolved social-control mechanisms (which use people as components as well as trains, pieces of paper, credit cards, web forms, &c.), and rocks. Instead of taking the things that people say about the evolved social-control mechanisms literally with respect to what _you_ think the words mean, you should constantly be making predictions (preferably predictions that you can get feedback about on the timescale of seconds or minutes) about what will happen if you interact with the social-control mechanisms in a particular way, and then noticing if the predictions come true or not. It turns out that non-nerdsâyou know, those people we disdain for being stupid or sexist or voting for Donald Trump or whatever your favorite excuse isâalready knew this; they just didn't tell you because they wereâcorrectlyâmodeling you as a component in the evolved social-control mechanisms rather than as a person.
+
+https://twitter.com/ErinInTheMorn/status/1239013977146953728
+
+https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/shadow-boxing/201611/boys-dressed-girls-who-became-serial-killers
+
+https://medium.com/@catamphetamine/how-github-blocked-me-and-all-my-libraries-c32c61f061d3
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/fk5nxt/pregnant_people/fkqzthd/
+
+church-state https://twitter.com/0x49fa98/status/1212034852041699331
+
+kind of obsessive https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2020/03/fight-to-make-crosswords-more-inclusive/608212/
+https://slate.com/human-interest/2019/01/nyt-crossword-puzzle-ethnic-slur.html
+
+mourning MichFest: https://www.reddit.com/r/GCdebatesQT/comments/fkeqy6/question_for_gender_critical_people_and_why_not/fkto0xl/
+
+find a cite for FtM heart-attack risk
+
+Kathleen Stock https://quillette.com/2019/04/11/ignoring-differences-between-men-and-women-is-the-wrong-way-to-address-gender-dysphoria/
+
+the real strength of "be charitable to those you disagree with" is that it forces you to clarify your ideas in order to defend against every possible absurd misinterpretation
+
+I think my feelings for Jessica represent an interesting interaction of the conflict between sex and "gender": my high regard for her is happening because she passes so well that my brain is tagging her as a woman (and women who understand LessWrong stuff to that level are sacred and precious), but I don't feel creepy about so openly expressing it to her or others, because I'm less afraid of hurting her, because I expect that whatever anti-rape adaptation brainware women have (that result in strange males being labeled "creepy" threats) she ... probably just doesn't have it
+
+
+"Winning" arguments is uninteresting, _especially_ arguments about definitions. Everyone knows that the same word can be used in many ways depending on context. What _matters_ is learning about reality, and finding concepts and representations that make reality _less_ confusing rather than _more_ confusing. If, after thousands of words of argument, someone _still_ thinks a concept that I find useful should not be used because I can't provide explicit necessary-and-sufficient conditions to classify a series of ever-more obscure and contrived edge cases and "gotcha"sâor because [it hurts someone's feelings](/2018/Jan/dont-negotiate-with-terrorist-memeplexes/)âthen I guess my response is to shrug and say, "Okay, whatever, I'll continue modeling reality using my concepts, and I wish you good luck trying to do the same with yours."
+
+[TODO: transition sentence about how the map is part of the territory]
+
+"from the merely naive to the dense to the outright vapid" insults violate a symmetry constraint
+
+non-rape gratitude https://twitter.com/Aella_Girl/status/1243595042557587456
+
+----
+
+Everyone wants to think they're an agent that's made an informed choice. And when the one comes to them and points out that they're the victim of a hostile memetic environment that's been conceptually gerrymandered to game them into making CRAZY choices for someone else's benefit, they take it personally. I certainly take it personally, and I want to learn how to stop.
+
+From the inside, you have free choice in the sense that you don't know what you're going to do until you've finished computing it. From the outside, you're a system that can be gamed.
+
+You're always going to be dominated by _someone's_ memeplex. The question is, if you knew more and thought faster, which parts of your current ideology would extrapolated-you construe as parasites, and which as symbiotes? You should, of course, be very suspicious of anyone who thinks they already know the answer. But perhaps it should not be seen as such a incursion to suggest that the answer may surprise you!
+
+----
+
+(Note the clarifying edit Alexander added at the bottom of the post, albeit only after I [threatened to escalate the civil war in our robot cult and spent Christmas Day yelling at him about it](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/bSmgPNS6MTJsunTzS/maybe-lying-doesn-t-exist/comment/xEan6oCQFDzWKApt7). I'm not proud of my social behavior here, but when everyone you used to trust is seemingly insistent on selectively playing dumb about their own philosophy of language in a way that's optimized to trick you into cutting your dick off (independently of the empirical facts that determine whether cutting your dick off is a good idea), you tend to get desperate.)
+
+----
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/dy7241/peak_trans_x_tell_your_story_here/fmg5eps/
+
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16488877
+> independent of the masculinizing effects of gonadal secretions, XY and XX brain cells have different patterns of gene expression that influence their differentiation and function
+
+Don't speak truth to power. Speak truth against your incentive gradient. I mean, _try_ to do that. You can't _literally_ do that, because you're _always_ following your incentive gradient, by definition. Speak truth against your _current model_ of your incentive gradient.
+
+----
+
+Theorem: when you strike at a king, you must kill him. (Credit assignment: Ralph Waldo Emerson.)
+
+My restatement (yours may be different, but still): when you strike at the God-Empressâwell, striking at the God-Empress wouldn't work. But when you strike at one of the God-Empress's minions, you have to either kill him or provide sufficiently strong evidence that you could kill him if you wanted.
+
+give sex denialists an inch, and they'll redefine the inch to be a mile
+
+"I had never settled on a form": https://i.redd.it/ygbkj3ock6x31.jpg General factor of ETLE?
+
+https://dsh.fyi/posts/2020-04-14-im-trans-call-me-daisy/
+
+"gender modality" https://www.florenceashley.com/academic-publications.html
+
+I'm not usuallyâat least, not alwaysâso much of a scrub as to play chess with a pigeon (which shits on the board and then struts around like it's won), or wrestle with a pig (which gets you both dirty, and the pig likes it), or dispute what the Tortise said to Achilles
+
+https://www.jehsmith.com/1/2019/12/are-cows-adult-bovine-females.html
+https://www.jehsmith.com/1/2020/01/gendered-animal-names-a-postscript.html
+
+marketing opportunity: https://www.peaktrans.org/contact/
+
+https://web.archive.org/web/20160406094634/http://mariacatt.com/2016/03/31/the-adult-baby-story/
+
+> If you want to change a culture, think in terms of the evolutionary aspects of it. You might be able to do it by just shaking things up and letting it slide into a new equilibrium, but this only works if there's an equilibrium where you want to be. Fighting the adaptation pressure is a losing game. âhttps://notebook.drmaciver.com/posts/2020-02-28-06:33.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/g4mse5/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_april_20_2020/fo0oug1/
+> a higher proportion of millionaires (5%) than women (4.9%). In addition, the proportion who want to have more than 4 children in the end (13.5%) is greater than the proportion who currently have more than 0 (13.3%)
+
+----
+
+https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10158118341274598?comment_id=10158118460954598&reply_comment_id=10158118537469598
+> it's not terribly surprising if many autistic people are like "please just stop with the gender stuff", in which case it seems insensitive to talk about the "autistic women" category when i don't mean exactly that.
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GCdebatesQT/comments/g53fgy/qt_which_pronouns_should_be_respected/fo6yk5i/
+> It's possible that I would grow acclimated to this usage of singular "they" after sufficient exposure, but there are other reasons that I try to minimize my social interactions with people who use singular "they"--basically the same reasons that I try to minimize my social interactions with hardline cultural conservatives and evangelical Christians. We fundamentally disagree about some very basic principles, which means that every interaction is an exercise in biting my tongue.
+
+https://www.catholicworldreport.com/2020/04/25/no-more-lies-dissenting-from-gender-ideology-and-the-trans-phenomenon/
+> by making non-procreative sex the new norm for everyone, a norm achieved primarily by chemical interference with female bodily functions, we ceased to be men and women and became merely heterosexuals and homosexuals. It was no very large step from there to seeing our dimorphic nature, our sexual complementarity, as lacking any real significance next to the pursuit of sexual pleasure and emotional thrills.
+
+Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land, pitied the in-betweeners
+
+https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/T8eKL6xdfL4yA2kvg/genetic-enhancement-as-a-cause-area
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/gc6iye/im_a_lesbian_and_a_leftist_but_mtf_trans_lesbians/
+
+https://newthoughtcrime.com/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/dy7241/peak_trans_x_tell_your_story_here/fp37ft6/
+
+https://web.archive.org/web/20180418215634/https://www.pride.com/viral/2018/4/17/internet-head-over-heels-adorable-openly-gay-3-year-old
+
+https://www.nationalreview.com/news/attorneys-for-connecticut-high-school-runners-ask-judge-to-recuse-after-he-forbids-them-from-describing-trans-athletes-as-male/
+
+Muscle strength, size and composition following 12 months of gender-affirming treatment in transgender individuals: retained advantage for the transwomen
+
+
+> And then bam, [author of https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/60gvph/culture_war_roundup_for_week_of_march_20_2017/df7el54/] show up a few months later as a trans girl.
+
+He didn't actually transition.
+
+https://americanmind.org/essays/children-and-transgenderism/
+
+https://quillette.com/2019/09/24/no-one-is-born-in-the-wrong-body/
+> For instance, up until age 7, many children often believe that if a boy puts on a dress, he _becomes_ a girl.
+
+
+From "The Psychological Foundations of Culture"â
+> This, of course, reflects folk biology, captured in the two dictionary definitions of innate as "present from birth" and as "intrinsic." Social constructivist arguments frequently take the form that because thus-and-such is absent at birth, or doesn't appear until after age seven, or until after puberty, it is obviously "learned" or "socially constructed." AS a result, a common, but generally irrelevant feature of "nativist" versus "environmentalist" debates is over what is "present from birth." This confuses (among other things) the question of whether something is expressed at the time of birth with whether there exists in the individual evolved devel- opmental mechanisms that may activate and organize the expression of an adaptation at some point in the life cycle. Developmental processes continue to bring additional adaptations on line (as well as remove them) at least until adulthood, and there is an increasing amount of evidence to suggest that agedriven adaptive changes in psycho- logical architecture continue throughout adulthood (see, e.g., Daly & Wilson, 1988). Thus, just as teeth and breasts are absent at birth and develop later in an individual's life history, perceptual organization, domain-specific reasoning mechanisms, the language acquisition device, motivational organization, and many other intricate psychological adaptations mature and are elaborated in age-specific fashions that are not simply the product of the accumulation of "experience." Consequently, psychological adaptations may be developmentally timed to appear, disappear, or change operation to mesh with the changing demands of different age-specific tasks, such as parenting, emotional decoding of the mother's voice, language acquisition, species-appropriate song learning, and so on (Daly & Wilson, 1988; Fernald, this volume; Marler, 199 1; Newport, 1990).
+> For any particular gender difference, many psy- chologists are interested in whether it was caused (1) by sexually monomorphic psy- chologies encountering differential treatment by the social world, or (2) by sexually differentiated developmental mechanisms encountering treatment from the social world, whether that treatment was uniform or differential. As interesting as this ques- tion may be, however, the fact that an expressed gender difference may first appear after birth, or even late in life, is evidence neither for nor against either of these views.
+
+
+> Do you consent to peristalsis or apoptosis or the Krebs cycle?
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GCdebatesQT/comments/glg1o7/qt_blind_spots_and_hypocrisy_in_gc_ideology/fqz1om6/
+
+
+https://www.unqualified-reservations.org/2007/05/roth-castes-chimps-and-rangordnung/
+> The losers in this struggle may keep their actual gonads, but they lose their repeaters, i.e., the institutions which install values and beliefs in the young.
+
+religion security hole https://www.unqualified-reservations.org/2007/05/two-kinds-of-repeaters/
+
+https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/a-penn-law-professor-wants-to-make-america-white-again
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GCdebatesQT/comments/gmpzr4/gc_what_part_of_being_trans_do_you_consider_it/fr6ejj0/
+
+https://tracieokeefe.com/autogynephilia-and-autoandrophilia-in-non-sex-and-gender-dysphoric-persons/
+
+> There was ONE space that was ours and that was a safe space
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/gkcmhj/peak_trans_xi_tell_your_story_here/frb8smz/
+
+"The value in framing is thought to account for the majority of defensive value behind the plate." (i.e., decieving the umpire)
+https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/catcher-is-baseballs-most-endangered-position/
+https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/4/5/389840/framing-the-debate
+https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/catcher-is-baseballs-most-endangered-position/
+
+bioleninism stack
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/glv7wt/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_may_18_2020/frknefk/
+
+https://medium.com/@ebolo/heres-why-the-black-white-iq-gap-is-almost-certainly-genetic-fb8cdf032655
+
+Razib on raceâ
+"What do you call a black doctor?" https://www.gnxp.com/MT2/archives/001391.html
+"Individual impact of affirmative action" https://www.gnxp.com/MT2/archives/000724.html
+
+https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-coopers-park-20200526-m4yhi6vkcfea3kxk3ntjc736s4-story.html
+https://www.facebook.com/671885228/posts/10158742137255229/
+
+https://web.archive.org/web/20200527112443/https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/coronavirus-testing-seattle-bill-gates.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/e85hvr/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_december_09/famxd26/?context=3
+
+complicity: https://chainsawsuit.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/20141015-theperfectcrime.png
+
+https://openpsychometrics.org/_rawdata/
+
+http://www.cbc-network.org/2020/04/lets-talk-about-lupron/
+
+https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-nhs-has-quietly-changed-its-trans-guidance-to-reflect-reality
+
+https://heterodoxacademy.org/seizing-means-knowledge-production/
+
+https://randomcriticalanalysis.com/2015/04/19/understanding-the-academic-achievement-gaps/
+
+https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/after-months-of-pleading-for-coronavirus-social-distancing-health-officials-supportive-of-protests-black-lives-matter-calls-them-too-dangerous/
+
+one thing I do remember is that many different Bayesian networks can represent the same probability distribution. And the reason I've been running around yelling at everyone for nine months is that I've been talking to people, and we _agree_ on the observations that need to be explained, and yet we explain them in completely different ways. And I'm like, \"My network has SO MANY FEWER ARROWS than your network!\" And they're like, \"Huh? What's wrong with you? Your network isn't any better than the standard-issue network. Why do you care so much about this completely arbitrary property 'number of arrows'? Categories were made for the man, not man for the categories!\" And I'm like, \"Look, I didn't get far enough in the _Daphne Koller and the Methods of Rationality_ book to understand why, but I'm PRETTY GODDAMNED SURE that HAVING FEWER ARROWS MAKES YOU MORE POWERFUL.
+
+> Impressive that left and right have executed their second swap of positions on the pandemic.
+https://twitter.com/SilDogood/status/1268233007737036800
+
+https://mustreadalaska.com/fairbanks-espresso-doubles-down-calls-its-pro-trump-customers-fascists-nazis/?fbclid=IwAR15fblt79rVCdEB-j1MlYtPk7NhascdCQ8TWwsp8zji5C-OiAvVIaT411E
+
+https://thevelvetchronicle.com/anonymous-letter-from-a-terrified-lesbian-thoughtcrime/
+https://thevelvetchronicle.com/why-is-nobody-talking-about-cognitive-brain-development-in-the-rush-to-transition-kids/
+
+"Defund the police" follows the logic of "give less money to orgs that do bad things", but they wouldn't say "Defund CPS"
+https://twitter.com/CharlesFLehman/status/1269964759606210560
+
+https://www.quantamagazine.org/males-are-the-taller-sex-estrogen-not-fights-for-mates-may-be-why-20200608/
+
+"Black" but "white": https://twitter.com/jessesingal/status/1272984924686110720
+
+https://medium.com/@kittyit/on-hurting-trans-women-a4a0ef1ef8d4
+https://medium.com/@kittyit/re-twitter-terms-of-service-c681356d0809
+
+https://twitter.com/sgrif/status/1273090735122927616
+
+https://medium.com/@dave_45588/response-to-andrew-carter-re-j-k-rowling-pt-2-556d9b9113b1
+
+The correctness of this post has been disputed at length: [object-level reply](http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/), [meta-level reply (part 1)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries), [meta-level reply (part 2)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception), [supplementary material on dolphins/whales](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water)
+
+Object-level reply: http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/
+Meta-level reply (pt. 1): https://lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries
+Meta-level reply (pt. 2): https://lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception
+Supplementary material on dolphins/whales: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water
+
+[object-level reply](http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/), [meta-level reply (pt. 1)](https://lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries), [meta-level reply (pt. 2)](https://lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception), [supplementary material on dolphins/whales](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water)
+
+
+darwin2500 "Women's leagues are for women, trans women are women. That's all the justification needed" https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/hym5xb/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_july_27_2020/fzvfres/
+
+another "Categories Were Made" cite, just as an example post: https://old.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/i10p4m/survey_on_moving_ssc_to_substack/fzwkfqk/
+
+"Sex Does Not Mean Gender. Equating Them Erases Trans Lives." https://archive.is/Mmlmi
+
+smart-fascist on trans programmers: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/hhtwxi/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_june_29_2020/fwf86ju/
+
+white people were violent back then: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/hhtwxi/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_june_29_2020/fwfyif9/
+
+https://medium.com/@rebeccarc/j-k-rowling-and-the-trans-activists-a-story-in-screenshots-78e01dca68d
+
+https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/fashion/where-have-all-the-tomboys-gone.html
+
+Smart people are sex erasure rather than sex denial, but erasure is a lot like denial when the phenomenon is decision-relevant ("we don't have a gender gap, just an assigned sex at birth gap"). (Atheism = Untheism + Antitheism)
+
+-----
+
+Drafted this for Duncan's wall, but I have serious writing to do; it's not worth my time to get intoâ
+
+I think I would be a LOT more likely to transition in a world where trans-people-as-a-collective-interest-group weren't such totalitarians hell-bent on Orwellian mind control. (In our world, I ended up quitting HRT after five months, and I never expected to stay on it indefinitely: http://unremediatedgender.space/2017/Sep/hormones-day-156-developments-doubts-and-pulling-the-plug-or-putting-the-cis-in-decision/ )
+
+Humans can't literally change sex given current technology (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QZs4vkC7cbyjL9XA9/changing-emotions)! You can't control how people perceive you! If wanting to be able to reason about the predictively-useful natural category of biological sex using simple language (http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Apr/reply-to-the-unit-of-caring-on-adult-human-females/) constitutes a lack of "basic fucking respect", well, gee, I guess I don't respect you, you Stalinist motherfuckers!
+
+(I think that slips under Duncan's rule of "no attacks directly at specific people", because "you Stalinist motherfuckers" isn't specific.)
+
+The one time I posted in /r/GenderCritical, I got a reply that said, "You are a predator." That was pretty hurtful and unjustifiedâI spent a lot of Christmas Day 2016 crying as a result. But ... that's obviously MY problem. I chose to post something in someone else's community, and my feelings were hurt by the reply. That's not warrant to destroy someone else's community! (Yes, I understand that Reddit is a private company and the 1st Amendment doesn't apply, but Reddit still has a lot of quasi-monopoly power due to network effects, and that power has consequences.)
+
+----
+
+https://medium.com/@mary.leng/harry-potter-and-the-reverse-voltaire-4c7f3a07241
+
+https://www.patheos.com/blogs/rolltodisbelieve/2020/07/07/j-k-rowling-and-the-measuring-of-a-woman/
+> I've noticed that authoritarian people love to define manhood and womanhood: to lay down the law about who qualifies for each particular label.
+
+https://www.outfrontmagazine.com/trending/facial-recognition-bias/
+https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/7/21128236/gender-app-giggle-women-ai-screen-trans-social
+> A new, female-only social media platformâGiggleâis being marketed as a safe space for women. The app uses a 3D scan of the users' faces in order to verify them as females. But thereâs one problem: it doesn't work if youâre trans.
+> Thatâs problematic on a number of fronts, not least of which is that bone structure is clearly a poor indicator of gender identity.
+
+"The facts that need to be explained" http://archive.is/rjs7R
+
+https://www.facebook.com/aboyd.boyd/posts/4167291901694
+
+
+https://old.reddit.com/r/CultureWarRoundup/comments/hq9emh/offtopic_and_loweffort_cw_thread_for_the_week_of/fy6ymq1/
+> For many black people in particular, white societies are suffocating with their demands of restraint and industriousness; much like the worst stereotypes of Asian societies are suffocating from White point of view. Remember that article Scott reposted, on a Chinese school where children are forced to follow extremely precise and meaningless instructions for hours on end, suppressing their every impulse? That's how the world looks when you have poor impulse control.
+
+https://saidit.net/s/thisneverhappens/
+
+https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bjpsych-bulletin/article/sex-gender-and-gender-identity-a-reevaluation-of-the-evidence/76A3DC54F3BD91E8D631B93397698B1A
+
+https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bjpsych-bulletin/article/freedom-to-think-the-need-for-thorough-assessment-and-treatment-of-gender-dysphoric-children/F4B7F5CAFC0D0BE9FF3C7886BA6E904B/share/800abbaff82cc6eaa399c52d957a565b6978d459
+
+https://periodaisle.com/blogs/all/6-transgender-women-talk-menstruation
+
+https://arcdigital.media/cancel-clusters-77fada5d7a8a
+
+https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8560707/amp/Lecturer-sacked-praising-Jewish-scientists-German-engineers-slams-woke-brigade.html
+
+https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/01/parenting/non-binary-children-support.html
+
+https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/14/1919091117
+
+> the fact is there is no single word that accurately captures every shade of meaning
+https://sigmaleph.dreamwidth.org/54093.html
+
+thispersondoesnotexist.com should offer age/race/sex radio buttons rather than just "Another"
+but I guess if the model was just trained on a bunch of unlabeled face photos, it's not going to be obvious what to change to generate "only females"
+the model must have learned the features somehow in order to produce such realistic results
+
+https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1165832120784146432
+the sad, continuous pain of seeing both sides, yet being on this one
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/i2r8qo/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_august_03_2020/g0tp7wq/
+> As an aside, sometimes it's great if English isn't your first language, because then, all of this stuff immediately stands out. [...] In Dutch, there is no word for 'gender' as opposed to 'sex'. [...] The local woke then imported the term from English along with the concept. So now, when e.g. the [...] city council of Amsterdam puts out press releases, the English word "gender" stands out like a sore thumb from the otherwise Dutch sentences and it's completely obvious to everyone what's going on.
+
+https://web.archive.org/web/20071013171416/http://www.singinst.org/blog/2007/06/11/the-stamp-collecting-device/
+
+Um, given our shared cultural context, I feel compelled to mention that I see myself as mostly making empirical and logical claims rather than being intrinsically value-unaligned? Such that, if you have specific counterarguments against my crusade (especially ones I'm not likely to have considered before), I'd be very grateful to hear them!
+
+(Because if the counterarguments are good, then I'm wrong and I should stop. Obviously.)
+
+And, like, the pure philosophy of language part in particular looks REALLY solid (and note that Jessica Taylor, who helped me with the math, agrees), even if empirical disagreements affect exactly how the philosophy applies to complex contemporary social issuesâlove to know what you think in the comments:
+
+
+But I guess you probably don't trust my rationality that much? Like, I expect us to agree that if you're not a topic-specialist, you're not likely to say things that I haven't heard before, whereas I am likely to say things you haven't heard before (even if you've read my blog, there's more I haven't written up yet)âbut that's just a matter of me sinking compute into the particular topic; if I'm opposing a consensus that you trust, you might be confident that I'm in the wrong, even if it's not worth your time to pin down exactly why.
+
+Sorry if that observation was boring.
+
+https://uncommongroundmedia.com/deconstructing-the-good-transwomen/
+
+NYTâ"Who Should Compete in Women's Sports? There Are 'Two Almost Irreconcilable Positions'": https://archive.is/Ckygw
+
+https://saidit.net/s/GenderCritical/comments/677z/the_clothesstealing_lesbianobsessed_agp/
+
+https://www.jbhe.com/features/49_college_admissions-test.html
+
+Andrew Sullivan profile https://archive.is/qviCi
+
+"Fluidity of gender identity induced by illusory body-sex change" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-71467-z
+
+I want to be careful not to fall into the trap of being a generic social conservative. My gender crusade becomes much less interesting insofar as it can be explained simply by me being born too early and not getting "kids these days." It's not that cultural change is necessarily bad;
+
+Doctoral thesis on TG/TF fantasy!
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4codai/
+https://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/file/065cf404-3114-4a42-a433-558eec179159/1/richard%20pilbeam%20thesis.pdf
+
+https://reclaimthenet.org/threats-of-violence-censorship-for-womens-rights-groups/
+https://archive.vn/hQFh1
+
+pee fantasy: https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/09/swap-clinic-favorite-thing.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TwoXChromosomes/comments/f0dfmt/has_anyone_ever_wrestled_with_guys_and_be/
+
+> Make a mistake, suffer a disaster, learn a lesson. Make two mistakes, suffer a disaster, learn half a lesson.
+https://twitter.com/spaceandgames/status/210229439395659776
+
+Oftentimes you genuinely happen to run out of time for a particular conversation, and that's fine: if your stopping algorithm is based on how busy you are that day and the expected information value of the remaining conversation, then we should expect to get accurate shared maps _eventually_, even if some topics get "unlucky" that you were busy that day. If your stopping algorithm is based on political convenience (you leave the conversation _because_ the other party made a good point that you're not allowed to admit in Berkeley), then we _don't_ converge to accurate shared maps!
+
+https://www.fastcompany.com/90455454/im-a-trans-woman-google-photos-doesnt-know-how-to-categorize-me
+
+more Reiner:
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1421517/
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1421518/ "Genetic males with maletypical prenatal androgen effects should be reared male."
+
+Tail said only a third of the variance in personality self-report is real; I asked how we know, and he says you can do math on multiple informantsâ
+https://replicationindex.com/2019/07/21/hidden-invalidity-of-personality-measures/
+https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227671578_What_multi-method_data_tell_us_about_construct_validity
+https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.0022-3506.2004.00282.x
+
+https://psyarxiv.com/f2wkt/
+
+https://ideasanddata.wordpress.com/2020/09/30/on-proposed-environmental-causes-of-the-american-black-white-iq-gap/
+
+https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2020/09/22/men-of-character-on-the-rise-cold-numbers-fading/
+
+https://gript.ie/female-guards-raped-in-prison-by-trans-inmates-says-former-minister/
+
+https://uncommongroundmedia.com/the-four-horsemen-of-the-gender-critical-apocalypse/
+
+https://www.interfluidity.com/v2/7333.html "Markets launder history"âthe analogy to trans history-rewriting makes me way more sympathetic to leftists
+
+https://carcinisation.com/2020/07/04/the-ongoing-accomplishment-of-the-big-five/
+
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13178-020-00502-5
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13178-020-00489-z
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/j165sq/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_28/g7iydmv/
+> But your family, clan, kin are naturally biased in your favor by simple oxytocin-driven mechanics of attachment, and family provides you with more support as it grows; and men have been helplessly biased in favor of their women since time immemorial (but you can think no farther than Esther). Your "identity", on the other hand, owes you nothing: instead, you owe everything to it, as it is in the power of your identity's political representatives to paint you a champion or a traitor, and you become more replaceable the bigger your alliance grows. It is a much less robust, much more adversarial and suspicious and cold, much less humane way to run a society
+
+https://transfemscience.org/articles/
+
+https://defmacro.substack.com/p/against-xkcd-1357
+https://defmacro.substack.com/p/from-corporate-politics-there-is
+https://handleshaus.wordpress.com/2020/10/06/review-of-rod-drehers-live-not-by-lies/
+https://bonald.wordpress.com/2016/03/11/die-hard-a-model-of-the-enemys-motivation/
+
+robot cult influence:
+https://www.reddit.com/r/linux/comments/2corc0/just_in_case_hes_a_reddit_troll/ (compare https://www.lesswrong.com/users/grendelkhan)
+https://retrocomputing.stackexchange.com/a/16457 (compare https://www.lesswrong.com/users/wizzwizz4)
+
+https://www.ginamaya.co.uk/transgender-life/on-adopting-a-more-gender-critical-transgender-activism.html
+
+https://reason.com/2020/10/09/coupled-barred-from-fostering-their-1-year-old-great-granddaughter-because-of-their-opposition-to-homosexuality-and-gender-transitioning/
+
+egregore capture
+https://twitter.com/ElaineAtwell/status/1314261010547695620
+
+https://blog.jim.com/war/the-way-through-to-the-other-side-of-the-left-singularity/
+> Every tenured academic everywhere in the world abruptly changes position overnight when the wind from Harvard and Yale changes.
+
+https://male-to-female.org/en/philosophy
+
+https://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/duty-to-disclose-adverse-legal-authority
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/SneerClub/comments/jeky8e/voxs_kelsey_piper_on_being_called_a_tradwife_i/g9hoi6p/
+> Leftists don't need a Quiverfull movement, because we can count on each of our Vile Offspring to seduce and ruin at least four Quiverfull kids each.
+[the brood-parasite strategy made explicit!]
+
+https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/09/write-to-say-stuff-worth-knowing.html
+> If you can then get other influential writers in overlapping topic areas to read and be persuaded by your argument, you might contribute to a larger process whereby we all learn faster by usefully dividing up the task of learning about everything.
+
+Motta-Mena and Puts has the awesome probability-of-gynephilia-by-intersex-condition graph, "Endocrinology of human female sexuality, mating, and reproductive behavior"
+
+listen later: https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/15/whats-the-matter-with-liberalism-talking-with-alex-kaschuta/
+
+"still having Donna's brain"
+http://theinsomniactg.blogspot.com/2020/10/not-body-id-have-chosen.html
+
+https://www.calstatela.edu/faculty/talia-mae-bettcher-professor-and-chair
+
+https://www.fast.ai/2020/10/28/code-of-conduct/
+
+"World Rugby Bars Transgender Women, Baffling Players" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/sports/olympics/world-rugby-transgender-women.html
+
+kayfabe: https://www.edge.org/response-detail/11783
+
+https://web.archive.org/web/20200705203105if_/https://reddit.com/r/GenderCriticalGuys/comments/hhcs34/autogynephilic_male_here_big_rant_about_denial_of/
+
+Idaho plantiff: https://uploads.ovarit.com/91cd2b5b-f8e9-52b0-86e4-b1b5104e5350.jpg
+
+https://www.christianpost.com/news/gofundme-removes-puberty-is-not-a-medical-condition-billboard.html
+
+https://quillette.com/2020/10/31/i-signed-up-to-study-sexual-health-what-i-got-was-gender-ideology-fetishism-and-porn/
+
+https://www.ladyscience.com/essays/the-dangers-of-categorizing-trans-desire
+
+> Importantly, the team cannot know the individual's gender identity, but rather only biological sex (which like gender doesn't always exist on a binary). In other words, they can't say whether the individual lived their life 9,000 years ago in a way that would identify them within their society as a woman.
+https://archive.is/ocQWg
+
+thread on the clothing-swap problem
+https://twitter.com/liminal_warmth/status/1323837794259619842
+including a DM about AGP: https://twitter.com/liminal_warmth/status/1324016024019062790
+
+https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/11/swap-clinic-pay-piper.html
+
+help me understand: https://www.reddit.com/r/Conservative/comments/jnxgm3/genuinely_please_help_me_understand/
+
+https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/02/reader-center/nonbinary-teens-reporting.html
+
+"Voter Fraud a Myth? That's Not What New York Investigators Found": https://archive.is/biahk
+
+https://quillette.com/2020/11/07/gender-activists-are-trying-to-cancel-my-book-why-is-silicon-valley-helping-them/
+
+> social upheaval means it's time to go all in on crypto, precious metals
+https://twitter.com/HiFromMichaelV/status/1324693317188308993
+
+"The Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis and Probabilistic Inference: Evidence from the Domain of Color"âstudy, summarize, and apply this to gender!!!
+https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0158725
+
+citation engine https://scite.ai/
+
+https://herandrews.com/2015/03/01/women-against-suffrage/
+
+https://www.christianpost.com/news/ministry-sue-bank-over-dropping-account-due-to-reparative-therapy.html
+https://unherd.com/2020/10/how-corporations-can-delete-your-existence/
+
+I'm currently planning on donating $500 to Kelly Loeffler
+[...]
+So, I agree that Orange Man Bad. But, Orange Man Gone! (Okay, there are some lawsuits to wrap up, but I don't think anyone expects those to go anywhere.)
+
+https://www.out.com/news/2020/11/11/norway-has-made-biphobic-transphobic-speech-illegal
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/jdvqk5/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_october_19/g9jw30k/?context=3
+> This is because once they hit puberty, no one wants young men around unless they're recruiting for a terrorist cell. [...] Whereas literally everyone wants young women. They come off as determined to be fuckups because they're being actively courted/recruited. Boys are left to fuck up their own lives.
+
+A vote for Kelly Loeffler is a vote for gridlock! A vote for gridlock is a vote to hit the brakes on our ongoing cultural revolution! A vote to hit the brakes is vengeance for Steve Hsu! A civilization that can't avenge Steve Hsu is DEAD (sooner or later and probably sooner) 2/2
+
+> Somebody can be born with a wiener, but not be a boy. Somebody else can be a boy, but not have a wiener.
+https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-do-boys-have-wieners/
+
+Is the Culture War lost? https://letter.wiki/conversation/930
+
+https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/ray-blanchard-transgender-orthodoxy/
+
+> we shall be fixed for ever in a universe of pure hatred
+https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/170990-suppose-one-reads-a-story-of-filthy-atrocities-in-the
+
+
+If you demand that people change how they think and talk about the world specifically in order to prove they're on your side (rather than because you have evidence and arguments explaining why your model is more accurate in the relevant domain), then people who care about thinking clearly will may reluctantly conclude they're not, in fact, on your side?
+
+Note, this is compatible with trans rights insofar as "more accurate in the relevant domain" can include grouping transsexuals with their social gender rather than their developmental sex, because it's possible for social transition to actually succeed on the merits of actually passing (or getting "close enough"), rather than acquiecing to demands. (Isn't that the goal? To successfully transition, and organically be perceived as your target sex?)
+
+If someone looks like a man, and sounds like a man, and I can model him as a man in the range of circumstances I interact with him without making any grievous prediction errors, then I call him a man even if he's technically a female on testosteroneânot as a favor, but because it genuinely seems like the best word to describe what I'm seeing. Futhermore, if I don't perceive someone as a man, but everyone else does (or speaks as if they do), I'll usually go along with the majority's language usage for game-theoretic reasons (explanation: http://unremediatedgender.space/2019/Oct/self-identity-is-a-schelling-point/). But if he further demands that I'm not even allowed to use the phrase "female on testosterone" to describe what I think is going on in this situation, then we have a problem.
+
+Trumpâ
+> devastating in their percentage and power of destruction
+
+Like I said, it would seem the disagreement centers around how robust the trait-clusters are, and how useful it is to be able to use simple language to talk about the overwhelming-majority case, and I'm wary of these standards being selectively varied for political reasons that, however well-intentioned, actually in-practice interfere with our collective ability to make sense of the world.
+
+When I say "selectively varied", I mean that the same standards aren't being applied evenhandedly to different topic-areas. For example, when talking about the anatomy of the hands, you might end up offhandedly saying something like, "Humans have ten fingers." I think it's good for people to be able to say "Humans have ten fingers" in most contexts without it being construed as a denial of the facts that polydactyly exists and that some people lose fingers in accidents. (It's true that polydactyly exists! And it's true that some people lose fingers in accidents! I enthusiastically affirm both of those facts! But I think it's also true that ... you know what I meant.)
+
+This is also my rationale for wanting "Men are the ones with penises" to be considered "true" in most contexts. The claim isn't that trans men don't exist; the claim is that adult human males are the prototypical thing that trans men are imitating (to the limits of available technology), such that it's useful for many unmarked usages of "man"/"men" to be understood to refer to the prototype unless there's some contextual reason to think otherwise.
+
+https://www.berkeleyside.com/2020/11/18/uc-berkeley-strips-the-names-of-professors-with-racist-views-off-3-buildings
+
+(I remember Logan Brienne recommended Will Powers on Facebook)
+https://www.reddit.com/r/DrWillPowers/comments/jx9io9/my_official_post_on_my_personal_opinion_on/
+https://archive.is/DnxUM
+He thinks AGP is erotic-only, but gender euphoria is OK
+
+Funny exchangeâ https://twitter.com/The_WGD/status/1329872398087303173
+> You're slipping into the Sailer zone, and while he's not exactly canceled...it's your risk to take, but if you drift slowly enough, you won't notice when you're past the line.
+> What's the worst thing that Sailer has ever said?
+> we don't know because he said it on his alt
+
+Pay gap among Uber drivers: https://nber.org/papers/w26380
+
+Millenials are children: https://archive.fo/KOHS3
+
+I should read the new Julia Serano paper. Serano, J. (2020). Autogynephilia: A scientific review, feminist analysis, and alternative âembodiment fantasiesâ model. The Sociological Review, 68(4), 763â778. (Note on skimming: it's actually significantly less mendacious than her previous work!)
+
+The map is not the territory. For an ideal observer passively viewing the world from behind a Cartesian veil, the map reflects the territory, and never the other way around: beliefs and reality interact in only one direction. Unfortunately, human social life is a little more complicated than this: when our beliefs about the world affect the reality of what people do, then we can have self-fulfilling prophecies: the territory bulldozed to fit the map. But self-fulfilling prophecies are still only a second-order effect: reality affects your thoughts directly (via sensory perception), whereas your thoughts only affect reality insofar as someone cares what you think.
+
+https://www.transgendertrend.com/trans-kids-reject-family-not-other-way-around/
+
+https://rewirenewsgroup.com/article/2020/11/23/is-there-a-terf-at-your-thanksgiving-gathering/
+
+https://medium.com/@Chican3ry/female-embodiment-fantasies-1e4bab7dc3f0
+
+https://nypost.com/2020/11/24/florida-woman-charged-in-machete-attack-wanted-to-be-with-mans-wife/
+
+https://www.cato.org/blog/history-crowdfunding-wake-violence
+
+Julia Serano: "Women who have struggled against patriarchal ideals of what makes a 'real' woman think nothing of turning around and using the world 'real' against trans women." The problem with the patriarchal ideals was not the word 'real'!
+
+https://world.wng.org/content/washington_erasing_parents_from_the_equation
+
+"Trans women dropkicked & beat a racist throwing slurs at them. The judge said he deserved it." https://archive.is/MWyIB
+
+https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-i-had-to-leave-the-guardian/
+https://www.theguardian.com/society/commentisfree/2020/mar/02/women-must-have-the-right-to-organise-we-will-not-be-silenced
+https://www.buzzfeed.com/patrickstrudwick/guardian-staff-trans-rights-letter
+
+"Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples" https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2016.303578a
+
+https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/where-have-all-the-lesbians-gone-0a7
+
+This is actually good storytelling: https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/11/magic-friend-zone-curse.html
+
+> Lesbian culture required the taboo to exist, and since it no longer does as religious objections faded, gay and bisexual women overwhelmingly meet and socialize in normal female company like straight women do.
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/jzbis2/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_november_23/gdtfzuz/
+
+https://eev.ee/blog/2020/06/11/rowling-is-dangerously-wrong/
+https://medium.com/@notCursedE/7-things-trans-people-never-actually-said-1ab5e5ce11da
+
+https://twitter.com/jesstheunstill/status/1334942407897587712
+> This was impressive! I was just in an Software Engineering boot camp at a tech company, and it was lead by two women of color, and the attendees were appx 10 women, 4 men, one non-binary person, and at least half were not white.
+
+https://theprovince.com/news/national/hunter-trans-jailbird-accused-of-sexually-assaulting-female-con/wcm/83654fa7-ef24-475a-a725-c56420a15e46
+
+The tragedy: we do want to help women and minorities, but not the ideological victimhood-identity mind-virus. But if the mind-virus captures all the smart women and minorities at our universities (which women and minorities feel even more pressure to go to than I did!âpart of what made my autodidacticism feasible was my white male privilege, that autodidact male geniuses are more believable)
+
+recommended on /r/TheMotte about gestures https://ansuz.sooke.bc.ca/entry/364
+
+article about the Timnit Gebru paper: https://archive.is/6TX2Y
+
+"Smith College alumni demand 'further training' for white staffer who decried anti-white work environment": https://archive.vn/wzlZD
+
+----
+
+> Do you agree with [people only act confused about biological sex when men wanted something]
+> Do you think that, if you look at the history of biological sex problematization/denialism (in academia, social media, etc), there's more influence from DMAB people than DFAB people?
+
+To your first question: the Tweet says "only reason", which is usually false. (Nodes in a Bayesian network can have multiple parents!) If we amend to "a significant reason, plausibly the most significant reason", then yes, in the following sense.
+
+In the possible world where the parameters of male sexual psychology are such that autogynephilia doesn't exist "but everything else is the same", then I don't think you get the kind and scope of trans-activism movement that Saotome-Westlake's and Adams-Miller's writing is a reaction to. In this world, you still get Judith Butler (AFAB, Gender Trouble published 1990) and Anne Fausto-Sterling (AFAB, Sexing the Body published 2000), but I think you don't get pronoun stickers at conferences in 2018 and you don't get a "three-year-old Merlin Blume is a girl now; she verbally confirmed it!" social-reality enforcement campaign in 2020.
+
+To your second question, it might actually depend on how you operationalize "influence"! Notably, the campaign to trans Merlin (whose parents met on lesswrong.com) is being run predominantly by AFAB people; they're just combatants in the service of an ideology that I don't think would have been so memetically fit if it weren't such a convenient accommodation for AGP. (At least, that's my theory under the doctrine of "algorithmic intent"; the people involved don't think of themselves as combatants in the service of anything.)
+
+----
+
+Two years ago, you wrote: "I wonder how would the rationalist movement (I meant the LessWrong cluster of folks) approach AGP if they could have a completely fresh start? Could there be a way to use the correlation between being intelligent/quantitative and being AGP to break the irrationalist trans ideology?"
+
+Well, I tried. I failed. I'm all out of cards. I blogged; I argued, many times, with everyone who would listen, including local celebrities (Yudkowsky, Scott Alexander). I still have a lot more writing to do for my own scholarly ambitions, but political/education efforts on my native subculture in particular are almost certainly saturated: if we were going to start a Zeitgeist change here, it would have already happened by now.
+
+There hasn't been no effect (people are aware of the typology as a hypothesis, with much thanks to Tailcalled and Ozy's Intellectual Turing Test), but I can't point to anyone doing anything meaningfully differently re impacts on women, our ability to think about sex.
+
+I'm still pretty horrified that the sticking point in discussions seems to have been not the AGP etiology itself (which is what I was focusing on in 2016/2017), but the category-boundaries-are-arbitrary "insight." So it's not just that we failed to break the irrationalist trans ideology: we actually invented something arguably worse! (Ordinary trans activists at least try to make (confused) truth claims; we invented a fully general counteragument against truth claims that's all the more dangerous thanks to the virtue of a very narrow kind of technical correctness.)
+
+-----
+
+https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/12/20691957/mastodon-decentralized-social-network-gab-migration-fediverse-app-blocking
+
+https://www.wired.com/story/science-journals-are-purging-racist-sexist-work-finally/
+https://archive.is/beD9M
+
+https://4w.pub/my-whole-conversation-with-kaitlyn-tiffany-for-the-atlantic/
+https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/12/reddit-ovarit-the-donald/617320/
+https://archive.is/lqKUe
+
+https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/keira-bell-s-victory-is-an-important-one-for-trans-teenagers
+
+https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9041725/Mum-called-trans-woman-Twitter-CLEARED-wrongdoing.html
+
+"Transgender Women in the Female Category of Sport: Perspectives on Testosterone Suppression and Performance Advantage"
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40279-020-01389-3
+"How does hormone transition in transgender women"
+https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2021/02/28/bjsports-2020-103106
+"Integrating Transwomen and Female Athletes with Differences of Sex Development (DSD) into Elite Competition: The FIMS 2021 Consensus Statement"
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40279-021-01451-8
+
+https://impossiblehq.com/well-see/
+
+https://harvardpress.typepad.com/hup_publicity/2020/06/black-lives-matter.html
+
+https://fairplayforwomen.com/transgender-male-criminality-sex-offences/
+
+social pressure on judges
+https://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-thorny-problem-of-inconstant-judges.html
+
+"The part is subordinate to the whole: female outliers"
+https://archive.is/UKNjx
+
+https://priceonomics.com/why-did-san-francisco-schools-stop-teaching/
+
+"Failed Assignments â Rethinking Sex Designations on Birth Certificates" https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2025974
+
+you think you're pumping against the incentive gradient, but actually you're just facing a weird dark-matter incentive landscape
+https://www.facebook.com/zmdavis/posts/10154648983465199
+
+https://graymirror.substack.com/p/61-the-nomos-of-the-earth
+> The past can inspire us; it can teach us; but it can never be our destination.
+
+https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/12/22/the-gender-heretics-are-finally-winning-the-terf-wars/
+
+https://thoughtsofstone.com/the-day-the-logic-died/
+
+http://bostonreview.net/race-philosophy-religion-gender-sexuality/robin-dembroff-dee-payton-why-we-shouldnt-compare
+
+https://old.reddit.com/r/CultureWarRoundup/comments/khaseo/offtopic_and_loweffort_cw_thread_for_the_week_of/gh8kd5q/
+> Give a bunch of men the option to couch their fetish in the trappings of womanhood and they will do so with gusto, and bully their way to the top. Then give women the choice between siding with the men and winning constantly, or side against the men and become a pariah, and the outcome is inevitable.
+
+https://medium.com/@Siltha1.0/caroline-criado-perez-is-a-terf-35c489e59ad9
+
+https://twitter.com/av_rose_ev/status/1340393165090516992
+> Years 3-5 of transition for trans women is recognizing how much of your relationship to your community is contingent upon you performing reproductive labor for your friends because it's the only way they continue to engage you as a woman and yes that includes cracking eggs.
+
+"Richer color vocabulary is associated with better color memory but not color perception" (h/t Sailer https://www.unz.com/isteve/orwell-got-it-right-about-sapir-whorf/)
+https://www.pnas.org/content/117/49/31046
+
+The "Finer-grained sterotypes" point seems to be a point in favor of "there are more than two genders", but the lack of a clear truth condition is a point against
+
+trans outcome bibliogrpahy comment https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/kq3o1s/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_january_04/gid9v2d/
+
+https://blog.mozilla.org/blog/2021/01/08/we-need-more-than-deplatforming/
+
+https://www.praile.net/post/kathleen-stock-obe
+
+"Sleep Deprivation Disrupts Prepulse Inhibition and Induces Psychosis-Like Symptoms in Healthy Humans"
+https://www.jneurosci.org/content/34/27/9134.short
+"Severe Sleep Deprivation Causes Hallucinations and a Gradual Progression Toward Psychosis With Increasing Time Awake"
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6048360/
+
+https://childrenoftransitioners.org/2021/01/24/the-abusive-autogynephile/
+
+
+https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10158884242629598
+
+> I just read an anecdote in which someone who's never had a penis claimed that "erection states intention", which I think is definitely false and also an extremely harmful thing to incorrectly believe. But I can understand why many cisgendered heterosexual woman would have such a strong impression that this is the case.
+
+I want to say: 'Why is the reference class here "cisgendered heterosexual women" rather than "biological females"? Cis lebians and trans men and also don't have first-person experience of erections.' ... but that's just going to get into a rabbithole of phalloplasty-penis erections count (where I haven't read the literature)
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/l4ii8x/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_january_25/gld6zgb/
+"trickle-down narrative economics. [...] The influence of thr NYT isnt best described in absolute value of its readership, but thr social graph of how its ideas penetrate all the way to thr bottom through more complex social networks of influence"
+
+https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/some-early-reader-nominations-for-fits/
+From the commentsâ"when the NYTimes publishes a bunch of op-eds saying 'believe this' or 'do this' that often actually happens. [...] But when Scott Alexander makes a blog post, things don't happen."
+
+"no matter what we called ourselves, the dynamics stayed the exact same" https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/16208/tifs-need-to-notice-how-little-tims-actually-care-about-them/93e81379-a59b-4135-a5a1-9f5227af8c31#comment-93e81379-a59b-4135-a5a1-9f5227af8c31
+
+> if [...] I had been cis.
+["if I hadn't had dysphoria" vs. "if I had been biologically female are very different counterfactuals!]
+https://twitter.com/liminal_warmth/status/1356490859324170241
+
+"Differences in cortical structure between cognitively normal East Asian and Caucasian older adults: a surface-based morphometry study"
+https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77848-8
+
+https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-02-05/trumpite-neighbor-unity-capitol-attack
+
+B.F. on JKR (https://www.facebook.com/duncan.sabien/posts/3883966591638029?comment_id=3884054068295948&reply_comment_id=3884243454943676):
+> I am very glad that I don't have anyone with opinions similar to hers in my immediate vicinity, because I am pretty sure that if I did, my brain would constantly be running a scared loop in any social interactions with them. [...] I think it's important that people can write essays that are as far outside my personal Overton window as hers is outside it (because sometimes they're correct and I should update, even though I don't believe this is an instance of that)
+
+https://www.newsweek.com/we-need-balance-when-it-comes-gender-dysphoric-kids-i-would-know-opinion-1567277
+
+https://trickymothernature.substack.com/p/one-long-cum
+
+"Horrified Mother Gets Front Row Seat to Sex & Gender Indoctrination Strategy Meeting"
+https://archive.li/pmuhQ
+
+https://gcacademianetwork.weebly.com/
+
+https://patch.com/illinois/evanston/northwestern-neuroscientist-found-dead-after-racism-allegations
+
+https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/its-time-to-take-the-penis-off-its-pedestal/
+
+AGP testimony https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDE9H8i2Vw0
+
+"A Typology of Gender Detransition and Its Implications for Healthcare Providers"
+https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0092623X.2020.1869126
+
+https://medium.com/@mariacatt42/how-to-do-your-own-differential-diagnosis-and-why-its-total-bullshit-that-you-would-have-to-461077985659
+
+black physics grad student
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/lk8abe/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_february_15/go3rqcf/
+
+(paywalled)
+https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/02/20/little-is-known-about-the-effects-of-puberty-blockers
+
+(metered)
+https://gen.medium.com/the-sports-arena-has-become-conservatives-favorite-anti-trans-battleground-8cc3adc533cf
+
+https://wepon.tumblr.com/post/620926931352862720/my-current-top-10-favorite-posts-on-slate-star
+
+I've frequently argued against the social practice of people being expected to declare (in their social media profile, or on badges at conferences) what third-person pronouns others should use to refer to oneself. The end goal of transitioningâone would thinkâis to be organically perceived as the sex other than one's [developmental sex](/2019/Sep/terminology-proposal-developmental-sex/).
+
+What pronoun other people _naturally_ use to refer to you when they're _not_ trying to be polite, but just trying to _talk about the world they see_ in the language that comes naturally to them, is a test of whether your transition is actually _succeeding_ at the goal of changing your (perceived) sex.
+
+https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/statement-on-new-york-times-article#comment-1263382
+> like a screed complaining about Jewish bankers, being read by someone whose only opinion of bankers is that they provide a safe place for him to store his money
+
+https://avoiceformen.com/featured/my-son-doesnt-want-to-be-a-man/
+
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2695466/
+
+https://jezebel.com/these-girls-just-wanted-to-run-the-right-wanted-a-war-1846280528
+
+https://unspeakablelgbtq.weebly.com/the-stories
+
+"Varied Reports of Adult Transgender Suicidality: Synthesizing and Describing the Peer-Reviewed and Gray Literature"
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5436370/
+
+-----
+
+Amy Harmon quoting Half Sigma and Jason Malloy back in the day?! Times have changed https://archive.is/6cXMD
+
+Univariate fallacy again https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2016/01/16/when-us-air-force-discovered-the-flaw-of-averages.html
+
+https://www.eviemagazine.com/post/america-has-a-boy-crisis/
+
+-----
+
+The problem isn't that I particularly care about citing some particular Canadian clinical psychologist; the problem is that I aspire to work in a paradigm that's _solely_ about minimizing the expected squared error of my probabilistic predictions (even when it hurts, perhaps _especially_ when it hurts), which puts me in conflict with a culture that prioritizes other things, like "politeness" or "not triggering horrible dysphoria" or "not giving rhetorical ammunition to our hate-filled ideological enemies who want me and my friends to not-exist". Removing citations to the Canadian clinical psychologist wouldn't actually solve the real conflict.
+
+I mean that the joint trait distribution of males-on-exogenous-estrogen-who-have-either-been-castrated-or-are-on-spironolactone is not only not the same as the joint trait distribution of untreated natal females, it's _also_ going to be a better fit to the joint trait distribution of untreated natal males along the many dimensions that aren't sufficiently affected by exogenous hormone replacement therapy, and that this is sufficiently robust that it's useful to be able to express concisely with a short phrase such as "biological sex exists", even in cases where I don't have the expertise or data to prove it, and this is important because most of life depends on tacit knowledge embedded in linguistic and cultural priors, rather than provable expertise and data.
+
+There's this cultural pattern that only went mainstream about five years ago where smart progressive people want to apply _strict scrutiny_ to any attempt to refer to or reason about sex. The culture almost never requires you to flat-out _lie_ about anything; there's just this coordinated juggernaut of gerrymandered concepts and unparsimonious implied causal theories and isolated demands for rigor that I think are _in practice_ making everyone crazy, even if you can never catch anyone in an easily verifiable lie.
+
+Ordinary people can _in fact_ recognize sex from facial structure at 96% accuracy (hair covered, males clean-shaven) even though we don't have introspective access to _how_ our brains are accomplishing this high-dimensional image-classification task: , and this is actually important for understanding what's actually going on in the heads of TERFs who cry, "That's a man! I _have eyes_ and I can _see_ that's a man! How dumb do you think we are?! Fraud!! Gaslighting!!1!"
+
+If the normative high-status response in your culture is to say, "How do you know? What do you mean by _man_? I think this is just dumb gatekeeping, and you're a horrible person who deserves contempt", then I think your culture ends up very confused about human behavior, because minimizing the length of the message needed to desribe your observations () would require concepts to which the culture has assigned long codeword lengths ("assigned at birth"). But I can't prove it.
+
+(I borrowed the "dumb gatekeeping" and "horrible people who deserve contempt" language from Brodski's blog post )
+
+I'm _not happy_ about the fact that this belief puts me in conflict with everyone in Berkeley and _especially_ the people who are _exactly like me_ except born five years later but I'm not sure what else I'm supposed to do?
+
+------
+
+Everest brain regression
+https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0149763421000804
+
+https://www.city-journal.org/the-miseducation-of-americas-elites
+
+---
+
+Scott Alexanderâ
+> It's hard to explain to people that yes, "we" have several billion dollars, but they still need to donate themselves.
+https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/m0vob7/why_hasnt_effective_altruism_grown_since_2015/gqhvuop/?context=3
+
+Maybe that's a sign that they shouldn't? Don't we want people to be making decisions on the basis of explanations?
+
+----
+
+Pre-emptive dismissal as "unrepresenative" is incoherent: if it's not representative, how are you guessing what about I'm say? (Counter: maybe the guess is because this non-representative thing gets selectively signal-boostedâbut that doesn't work if the person is talking about their own experience and hasn't been selected)
+https://the-grey-tribe.tumblr.com/post/644563577202704384/your-experiences-are-not-universal-theory-of
+
+https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/check-out-how-much-effort-it-takes
+
+
+> the gray tribe gets its color by being the ashen waste of the blue tribe. Burned up in the misfortune of trying to actually compile the blue tribe source code
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/m0abd1/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_march_08_2021/gqvg6kv/
+
+----
+
+copied from old conversation with "Wilhelm"â
+
+the gender ratio between open-source vs. corporate software is pretty striking (~2% vs. ~20%); a hard-reactionary might argue, "women can't code, corporate women programmers are living in an astroturfed world and don't actually accomplish anything useful", whereas a more moderate position might be, "the sex difference in engineering aptitude is pretty small and women can do it fine when the appropriate incentives are there for them, but only men enjoy competing with each other for Internet Status Points"
+
+even where people have evidence from personal experience, that evidence gets interpreted through the haze of ideology (for better or for worse); Katie lived through her husband transitioning, but she didn't have the framework to make sense of it until she talked to me
+
+I was genuinely surprised by the race/IQ literature back in 2007; it wasn't that I was quietly knowledge-falsifying beforehand
+
+> one man's moderate is another man's radical when you have political inferential distance
+
+----
+
+I said: "Medical treatments aren't going to be harmful, or not-harmful as an objective binary; it's a cost-benefit thing. And things like osteoporosis risk, tenous thromboembolism risk, infertility, SRS complication risk, and the sheer inconvenience of being a lifelong medical patient are costs"
+Someone in Discord said: I'll take those risks over the risk of suicide any day
+
+... but that's if you've been sold the idea that don't-transitionâsuicide, which has been selected for emotional blackmail rather than being true
+
+----
+
+https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trans-girls-belong-on-girls-sports-teams/
+
+https://4thwavenow.com/2021/03/16/dutch-puberty-blocker-pioneer-stop-blindly-adopting-our-research/
+
+https://thepostmillennial.com/rob-hoogland-canada-prisoner-of-conscience
+
+https://www.feministcurrent.com/2020/12/06/the-sex-binary-is-not-a-western-construct-gender-identity-is
+
+"Self-Medication of Paraphilic Ideation Contributing to a Pulmonary Embolism: A Case Report"
+https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667296020300094
+
+"liberalism of the gaps"
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/lk8abe/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_february_15/gnsbftf/
+
+Blanch doesn't think HSTS is about getting men
+https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/1372918358639849476
+
+https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/mara-keisling-on-the-trans-debate
+
+https://thefederalist.com/2021/03/19/when-transgenderism-discards-my-daughter-i-will-still-be-here-for-her/
+
+https://churchlifejournal.nd.edu/articles/the-eclipse-of-sex-by-the-rise-of-gender/
+
+https://mattbruenig.medium.com/liberal-pluralism-is-fake-7f27c9831d7d
+
+----
+
+From Discordâ
+> Like, I just do not care about someone's sex, this is the least interesting part of their social gender. So for you older people, "gender" here means approximately gender role as you'd conceive of it. Why is this important? Well, thanks to the sterling work of the second wave feminists, gender roles are detached from sex. Now interestingly enough, at least some people have this thing that makes us want to play a gender role, and it makes us very happy when we manage and very sad when we don't manage. What it means to be a "gender" in this paradigm is that your brain wants you to play that gender role, broadly construed.
+> So, while I have the sex of male, that is the least interesting bit to my brain - I want to fill the gender role of "zoomer woman" and in this paradigm this is the only sensible way to define woman without just ignoring the only interesting part of gender. I understand that you're weird and like care about sex instead but I really do not understand what part of that is interesting. Someones sex does not determine their mind very well, as second wave feminism likes to say.
+
+----
+
+https://thenib.com/more-of-the-same/
+
+
+https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/18/politics/white-supremacy-racism-asian-americans/index.html
+> In one sense, it's immaterial whether the accused killer in the Atlanta spa shootings admits to a racist motivation. Asian Americans, already traumatized by a rising tide of hate, violence and rhetoric, have been living in fear for months.
+
+https://old.reddit.com/r/CultureWarRoundup/comments/maffk1/march_22_2021_weekly_offtopic_and_loweffort_cw/gsa9hqt/
+> Tomboys are the best and I exclusively wage the culture war because progs and the lgbtq crap is a direct threat to the continued existence of tomboys.
+
+tomboy respecters
+https://i.redd.it/xl8x1wixx7e51.jpg
+
+https://transliberalism.substack.com/
+
+Everyone wants to think they're an agent that's made an informed choice. And when the one comes to them and points out that they're the victim of a hostile memetic environment that's been conceptually gerrymandered to game them into making CRAZY choices for someone else's benefit, they take it personally. [...] From the inside, you have free choice in the sense that you don't know what you're going to do until you've finished computing it. From the outside, you're a system that can be gamed. You're always going to be dominated by _someone's_ memeplex. The question is, if you knew more and thought faster, which parts of your current ideology would extrapolated-you construe as parasites, and which as symbiotes? You should, of course, be very suspicious of anyone who thinks they already know the answer. But perhaps it should not be seen as such a incursion to suggest that the answer may surprise you!
+
+https://medium.com/@transphilosophr/t4t-and-the-micropolitics-of-trans-liberation-357df39df017
+
+https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2021.632784/full
+
+https://twitter.com/sinxoveretothex/status/1376923898386780163
+> Because if race is a proxy for something, that something is a proxy for race too.[...] You can't prove the causative direction you intended.
+
+relates toâ
+
+> oh look, the Georgia voting law appears to be a set of facially neutral reforms that curtail voting in the most populous and Democratic areas in the state, which also happen to have the largest black populations.
+https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1377999458269548546
+https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/02/us/politics/georgia-voting-law-annotated.html
+
+https://quillette.com/2021/04/02/when-sons-become-daughters-parents-of-transitioning-boys-speak-out-on-their-own-suffering/
+
+https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2021/04/01/trans-neo-nazi-group-taylor-parker-dipeppe-atomwaffen-division-florida-crime-jail/
+
+https://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/2021/04/the-claim-of-substantial-difference-in-mean-is-currently-not-based-on-strong-evidence/
+
+"free in my ontology and costly in another"
+https://twitter.com/acesounderglass/status/1380383145623580676
+
+"Considering Sex as a Biological Variable"
+https://academic.oup.com/edrv/advance-article/doi/10.1210/endrev/bnaa034/6159361
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/honesttransgender/comments/mnkgha/dont_say_trans_community_if_youre_just_talking/
+
+https://www.womenarehuman.com/transgender-inmates-are-raping-female-prisons-at-a-shocking-rate-ministry-of-justice-reveals/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/honesttransgender/comments/ec2kfd/unsure_if_or_how_i_can_find_my_place_in_the_trans/
+
+https://www.speedrun.com/news/632-2021-3-24-spotlight-four-women-in-speedrunning
+
+"Does Maltreatment in Childhood Affect Sexual Orientation in Adulthood?"
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3535560/
+
+https://nintil.com/why-so-few-women-in-cs-the-google-memo-is-right
+
+The scene in _Invincible_ where Mark says, "That's sexist" in response to talk of getting the girlâsome Amazon reviewers thought it was SJW garbage, but having been a teenage boy in the 'aughts, it felt very true-to-life
+
+https://www.feministcurrent.com/2021/04/12/heres-why-andrew-sullivans-proposed-truce-on-transgenderism-doesnt-work/
+
+https://www.currentaffairs.org/2017/10/people-literally-do-not-understand-what-laws-are-or-how-they-work
+
+"The ACLU has filed a lawsuit against a private citizen for requesting public records from the Washington State Department of Corrections"
+https://thepostmillennial.com/aclu-blocks-womans-request-for-data-on-numbers-of-transgender-inmates-in-womens-prisons
+
+http://www.westcoastleaf.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/A.B.-decision-January-2020bcca11.pdf
+
+https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/arts-letters/articles/merit-blake-smith
+
+Working in terms of variance exaggerates (e.g.) how little shared environment matters
+https://marcodgdotnet.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/delgiudice_apples-squared-apples_preprint.pdf
+
+Sometimes I forget how blinkered most radfems are; these comments are really bad; "AGP is not a sexuality"??
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/28008/the-problem-with-autogynephilia-trans-trending
+
+The depressing and hopeless thing about my "activist" projectâsuch as it isâis that I'm trying to affect _concepts_, not _policy_. (I prefer to think of myself as an "informist"âtrying to improve the _information_
+
+https://www.foxnews.com/us/virginia-accelerated-math-courses-equity
+
+"not getting the joke"
+https://blog.reaction.la/culture/governor-cuomo-shocked-that-women-will-do-anything-for-an-alpha-male-thug/
+https://blog.reaction.la/war/the-goal-is-soft-genocide-unless-stopped-the-outcome-will-be-hard-genocide/
+
+https://grahamlinehan.substack.com/p/pronouns-are-about-power
+
+life history switch https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/mtuhyd/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_april_19_2021/gvirbwb/
+
+----
+
+Notes from the "Cognitive Creationism" paper (https://journalofcontroversialideas.org/article/1/1/131) (No. 1 in the Journal of Controversial Ideas)â
+
+The decline of religion means that people turn to wokismâbut I can't blame them; I'm exactly the same wayâ"rationalism" became my religion
+
+"Their science is driving theirinterpretation of Scripture, and not the other way round"âas a bad thing. Shades of Julia Serano
+
+----
+
+Biological sex is a "brighter line" (stabler Schelling point) than menopause, and legal reasoning often depends on such bright lines. (Thus, jurisprudence on the rule against perpetuities assumes that people are always fertile.)
+
+https://janhove.github.io/reporting/2015/02/05/standardised-vs-unstandardised-es
+https://janhove.github.io/design/2015/03/16/standardised-es-revisited
+https://janhove.github.io/design/2017/07/14/OtherRoadsToPower
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/28810/attraction-to-someone-you-don-t-know-is-trans-the-reality
+
+https://slate.com/human-interest/2021/04/husband-cross-dressing-turned-off-sex-advice.html
+
+https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greeble_(psychology)
+
+There should be a way to look down on the young without being dehumanizing about it. I approve of my teenage self relative to my surroundings
+
+adolescent self-esteem by race &c.
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3263756/
+
+> We must secure the existence of our tomboys and a future for tomboy children.
+https://old.reddit.com/r/CultureWarRoundup/comments/n3obw1/may_03_2021_weekly_offtopic_and_loweffort_cw/gxelx5q/
+
+----
+
+Abort commenting on Facebookâ
+
+A potential mechanism for why a single man looking for polyamorous partners could come off as "someone with poor odds affording themselves poorer odds" is if the request stems from a "markets for lemons" effect: men with poor mate value might think they have a better chance of finding someone (anyone) if they don't demand exclusivityâbut the very fact of advertising this signals their poor mate value! I doubt this model is applicable to [...] particular (unusual) case, but if it applies to many other men, [...] might face the problem of credibly signaling to potential partners that he's not one of those guysâthe information asymmetries can't just be moralized away!!
+
+Re normalization of poly and LGBT, I'm skeptical that "political" vs. "not-political" is a useful distinction here; everything that you and your friends happen to agree on looks "non-political". (Indeed, the contingencies of political coalition-formation would seem to be the only reason to lump "LGBT" together into one term/concept; if it weren't for having social conservatives as a commmon enemy, it's not obvious what (e.g.) androphilic males (G) and gynephilic-males-who-wish-they-were-females (part of the T) would have to do with each other, and the coalition may already be starting to fray.) The underlying psychological variations (towards homosexuality, or towards higher levels of sociosexuality) probably exist everywhere, but our culture's particular reification of "poly" or "LGBT" as sexual orientations is setting up an implicit cultural filter (a "political choice") that may be more visible to [...] than others.
+
+-----
+
+_not_ as a gender-role self-fulfilling-prophecy enforcement attempt (bulldozing the territory to fit a preconceivedly sexist map would be really bad!!)
+
+but as a neutral scientific claim that _could_ be false (like any falsifiable claim), but which I think is true and which I have citations for (attempting to map features of the territory that would probably still be there independently of whether or not they appear on the map, where sexist self-fulfilling prophecies are potentially a real concern, but I'm not that worried about them on the current cultural margin in Berkeley 2021, even though I would worry in other cities and years)
+
+----
+
+walking animation carry angle: https://www.biomotionlab.ca/html5-bml-walker/
+
+
+https://www.healthline.com/health/how-are-transgenders-born
+> For example, those who don't want to pass might: [...]
+> not identify with the norms present in cis culture
+> have a sense of gender that canât be affirmed using reference points grounded in the cis experience
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/31752/why-do-trans-people-like-doing-things-that-are-feminine-but-even-females-don-t-l
+> only straight men talk about women's bodies like this.
+
+
+on this account cis transhumanists are sane
+> Trans transhumanists: omg what if hot-swappable body parts? Real functioning tails and cat ears? Permanently purple hair?
+> Cis transhumanists: with this nootropic stack and optimized nutrient slurry my tragic meat machine is 8% more efficient at converting calories into javascript
+https://twitter.com/mspowahs/status/957995279092875264
+
+I get this one a lot. So much so that I had to waste three years of my life explaining and re-explaining the cognitive function of categorization in exhaustive, exhaustive detail: see ["The Categories Were Made for Man to Make Predictions"](http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/) (6500 words, February 2018), ["Where to Draw the Boundaries?"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries) (3800 words, April 2019), and ["Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception) (9900 words, January 2021).
+
+> It does shed some light on some of the more cryptic things my mom had said over the years
+https://bodyswapfiction.com/enter/time-loop/
+
+Sex differences in language use, and gays (discussion includes sex-differences cites)
+https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.639887/full
+
+The R.A.I.N.B.O.W. (Respect Acceptance Inclusivity Nonjudgemental Born-this-way Open-minded Worthy) LGBTQIA employee interest group had a Zoom event for the start of Pride month today. I spoke, but was very inarticulate https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FMkQtPvzsriQAow5q/the-correct-response-to-uncertainty-is-not-half-speed (I was going to write a post about it, but I feel like being paranoid and risk-averse)
+
+Gayness has been reified such that you can make gay part of your public identity without people having to think about anal being a thing (which I still can't believe)
+
+a simplistic account, but ... https://medium.com/@awbreymaggie8/detransition-505c99d822df
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/32816/thoughts-on-feeling-like-a-woman
+> I've been asking the older women in my life if they ever "felt like a woman" literally all of them (completely oblivious to TRAs) look at me with such a puzzled and confused face, they're like "no?? was i supposed to?"
+
+https://www.npr.org/2021/06/02/996319297/gender-identity-pronouns-expression-guide-lgbtq
+
+https://nypost.com/2017/11/17/apples-diversity-chief-lasts-just-six-months/
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/32969/cisgender-questionnaire-given-ahead-of-zen-center-meeting
+
+https://www.nytimes.com/1974/04/14/archives/conundrum-by-jan-morris-a-helen-and-kurt-wolff-book-174-pp-new-york.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/nqm85g/review_of_i_was_born_in_slavery_aka_the_past_is_a/h0dbcua/
+> Arguably every generation lives in a completely different world than the one before it. The social milieu of one's teens and twenties is formative on a deep, visceral level as to what "the issues" are, and what's important in the grand scheme of things.
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/nowgdg/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_may_31_2021/h0nxdb2/
+> America developed its race blind ideology when it was 90% white and had been a deeply religious country. The race blind ideology is like a fit person eating cake
+
+Senior year cross country championships: I was 43rd amongst boys in 17:32 (5:39 mile pace), which was faster than the top girl 17:58 (5:47)
+http://www.cifncs.org/sports/cross_country/History/2005/DivIIBoys2005.html
+(archived https://archive.is/JyJYd)
+http://www.cifncs.org/sports/cross_country/History/2005/DivIIGirls2005.html
+(archived https://archive.is/n53BD)
+
+"Ethical-Advice Taker: Do Language Models Understand Natural Language Interventions?"
+https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.01465
+
+"Sex Differences in General Knowledge: Meta-Analysis and New Data on the Contribution of School-Related Moderators among High-School Students"
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4210204/
+
+https://twitter.com/caderaspindrift/status/1407591174911578114
+> like if you know I'm AMAB that tells you nothing about my hormone levels or whether I have a dick or whatever
+> why do you need a term for this
+
+https://www.newsweek.com/theres-no-standard-care-when-it-comes-trans-medicine-opinion-1603450
+
+https://www.outsports.com/2019/6/3/18649927/ncaa-track-champion-cece-telfer-transgender-athlete-fpu-trans-testosterone
+
+https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-unabombers-autogynephilic-transgenderism/
+
+> I've witnessed such public intellectuals busily negotiating terms, topics and outcomes of their next debate [...] its most plausible corollary would be that the "Substack cabal"
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/o9edtt/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_june_28_2021/h3e8827/?context=3
+
+https://transsubstantiation.com/a-letter-to-anne-lawrence-709fac0af75e
+
+> Someone recently likened AGP to the movie Get Out
+https://ovarit.com/o/ItsAFetish/35359/silicone-female-body-suit-links-to-amazon/fc473510-7d4a-4e11-af9c-7b7fadfdb551#comment-fc473510-7d4a-4e11-af9c-7b7fadfdb551
+
+------
+
+Can ... can I ask you a question about your beliefs? (Not to argue, but to understand; I wouldn't spend bandwidth asking if my Intellectual Turing Test procedure could predict what your reply, but I can't predict it.)
+
+I thought your position was (my attempted paraphraseâ) "Gender is a social category; it's better to let people choose it freely rather than tying it to assigned sex at birth."
+
+But I'm having trouble reconciling that with the language of "now they think they might be a girl [...] Some people who think they might be a girl are really sure, and some aren't sure", which suggests there's a pre-existing underlying fact of the matter.
+
+If you believe it's a social category that people should be able to self-designate into, wouldn't you use language that describes it as a choice or preference rather than an underlying fact? That is, you'd say "aren't sure whether they _prefer_ to be a girl" rather than "aren't sure whether they _are_ a girl".
+
+------
+
+"How Mainstream Trans Narratives are Harmful"
+https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2RqxAasmH4
+
+https://scarlettphoenix.substack.com/p/detransition-diary-1
+
+"When Selves Have Sex: What the Phenomenology of Trans Sexuality Can Teach About Sexual Orientation"
+https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00918369.2014.865472
+
+every day like the first
+http://hannahtg1000.blogspot.com/2021/07/jake-and-rabbits-foot-finale.html
+a similar themeâ
+https://some-tg-caps.blogspot.com/2021/08/male-brain.html
+
+https://medium.com/@notCursedE/a-glossary-of-transphobia-a31a001d279
+
+shared environment effects female but not male sexuality
+https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18536986/
+
+> trans women are untouchable, individually and as a group
+https://uploads.ovarit.com/4f3856b9-c73a-54fa-8557-ce565cb2fec5.png
+
+> The Transgender Industry Is Culling Tomboys Out Of Existence
+https://archive.is/NZmPe
+
+The world is so small: Gwern linked to a Crooked Timber blog post, and my roommate (!) is a few comments below
+
+Scott repeating the story from Inadequate Equilibria is typical of our insular cult https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/adumbrations-of-aducanumab
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/39177/i-just-found-out-that-the-tim-who-works-at-my-village-supermarket-is-a-convicted
+
+> you look inside CLIP, you find neurons corresponding to literally every trait â or almost every trait â that is a protected attribute in the United States
+https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/chris-olah-interpretability-research/#safety-implications-004101
+
+> These changes seem to have gone farther in women, whose head hair is thicker and somewhat longer.
+https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=60916
+linked from https://www.unz.com/isteve/does-womens-hair-grow-longer-than-mens-hair/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/MtF/comments/ouap22/i_need_help_coming_out_to_my_literally/
+
+I want to know how the dialogue would have continued afterâ
+
+woman: Okay, I see what you're trying to do, but I think it's ultimately misguided. The reason your employer markets cars and dolls side-by-side as a choice, rather than happening to have cars one month, and dolls the next month, is precisely to cater pre-existing statistical sex differences in children's play stylesâon average, they'd lose sales from parents of girls during car month, and vice versa. I know, the idea of sex differences in toy preferences seems far-fetched to youâafter all, there were no _trucks_ in the environment of evolutionary adapatedness. Nevertheless, empirically, this is a thing! The difference in preference for vehicle toys is Cohen's d of 2.4 (http://unremediatedgender.space/papers/davis-hines-how_large_are_gender_differences_in_toy_preferences.pdf). That's huge! Shit's been stable for the fifty years psychologists have been studying this (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-021-01989-8)! I know, it's the patriarchy, right?
+
+But then how do you explainâokay, so there's this genetic condition called congenital adrenal hyperplasia, where people's bodies don't make enough of this enzyme called 21-hydroxylase, and it turns out that, in girls, this results in too much androgen during a key point in fetal development. And it turns out that these girls actually have much more male-typical behavior than normal, including toy preferences (http://unremediatedgender.space/images/cah_diffs_table.png), in a way that's _linear_ with the level of 21-hydroxylase deficiency, suggesting that prenatal hormones account for the difference.
+
+And before you point out the half-dozen confounders anyone could point out in five seconds, the researchers already thought of that. They had a control group of non-CAH girls! They had a control group of the CAH girls' siblings! They had a control group of CAH boys! They checked whether they girls behaved differently when their parents were presentâand they actually played with "boy's" toys more when the parents weren't there, the _opposite_ direction of the effect that you would expect from the parental socialization theory.
+
+You might sayâso what? Even if statistical sex differences in play styles are real, that's still just an average, right? Cohen's d of 2.4 still an overlap ofâum, two times the normal CDF of negative d divided by twoâtwenty-three percent! So we should still refuse to acknowledge Hot Wheels as "boy's" toys, right?
+
+But lookâstatistical trends are actually useful for navigating the world, such that we often want language that's optimized for handling the most common case, without seeking to deny or disparage the existence of exceptions? Again, that's _why_ the restaurant is offering two choices of toy in the first place, which is a Pareto improvement over disappointing a lot of girls during car month, or never offering any choices that are knownâknown!âto appeal more to one sex than the other. Statistically! Given that it's happening anyway, does being able to talk about it make it worse?
+
+This Happy Meal is for my nephew. I don't know the kid that well, but he seems like a pretty typicalâboy? Such that, if I'm going to get fast food and there's a choice of toy, my guess is that he's going to want whichever choice was optimized around the mean of boys' preferences, even if I didn't know in advance whether that would be Hot Wheels or Transformers. Amâam I not supposed to notice? Am I not supposed to have language to describe the pattern I'm seeing in the world? How much are people really hurt by this?
+
+If I had known that the kid specifically liked Barbies, or was generally effeminate, maybe I would have asked for the girls' toy. Like, it seems like a lot less hassle to just say that sometimes girls like boys' toys and vice versa, rather than to insist on playing dumb about whether "girls' toys" is a coherent concept, which the children themselves typically manage to work out over the ideological protests of progressive parents?
+
+(I actually favor the "don't unnecessarily gender toys" position myselfâI'm happy to say "Barbie or Hot Wheels" to avoid contributing to a partially-self-fulfilling-prophecy effect, even at the cost of obfuscating the causal explanation of why the dichotomy is thereâbut I end up writing things like this anyway, because the level of pretending-to-be-stupid biological sex denialism among people who you'd think would have the science chops to know betterâeven people in a cult of alleged "Bayesians"!âis really, really out of hand. If you're worried about self-fulfilling prophecies, talk about that hypothesis _explicitly_, rather than throwing out the concept of probabilistic reasoning using language!!)
+
+> [Duncanâ]
+> there *isn't* a good reason to push back against calling the Barbie a Barbie instead of calling it a girl toy
+
+Policy debates should not appear one-sided. "It's being clear about why the restaurant is offering two, and only two, and specifically these two, toy choices" is a reason. Liberal anti-gender-role individualists like us don't think it's a sufficiently strong reason to outweigh the externality, but the concern about externalities is value-laden; protesting, "Oh, I'm only asking you to be _specific_, no ideological agenda here!" would be a lie.
+
+More small world: CronoDAS (a LWer) on /r/slaythespire https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/p92011/my_first_defect_heart_kill_ascension_6/
+
+A stronger skeptical position than "delusional / confused / making it up" would be that recent cultural developments are encouraging people with underlying gender-role-non-conformant psychological predispositions to conceptually reify those feelings as a "gender identity", when people with the same underlying tendencies in previous generations wouldn't have thought about it that way: the same people who would have been "tomboys" or "butch women" or "women who have short hair in order to credibly signal gender-role-non-conformity" in (say) the year 2011, are now much more likely to think of themselves as "not a woman". The "if you have these feelings, you're almost certainly not cis" argument presupposes an ontology of human psychology under which some people "are cis" or "are trans" (as an underlying state of being, distinct from both biological sex, and the state of having undergone social or medical interventions to resemble the other sex), which is exactly what the skeptics are contesting!
+
+a.f.a.b. enbies and TERFs are sampled from the same underlying psychological phenotype (say, females with less-than-30th-percentile conventional femininity), and the difference between them is ideological/cultural
+
+https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/19/1010646/campaign-stop-covid-19-vaccine-trump-election-day/
+
+> The untrained male has an instinct to seize and guard a woman's reproductive capacity, instinctively using violence to stop her from interacting with other men at the same that he instinctively displays other forms of commitment to try to earn her acquiescence. The untrained female has adaptations that assume an environment in which men will try to pressure her into more sex than is optimal for her own reproductive fitness, so her adaptations push her to instinctively resist that pressure while also instinctively trying to increase the number and quality of men who'll be interested in her. There is a long-running dichotomy-tradeoff-argument in dath ilan between the position that this is just stupid, and somewhat evil, and was structurally evil back when some of the first sexually recombinant organisms started to specialize in injecting their genes into other organisms; and that current humans should opt out entirely from the more conflicty and combative ways that sex evolved to work, starting with using mental discipline to counteract those tendencies and eventually trying to select them out of humanity's descendants. Versus the position that it's (1) not that bad, (2) actually quite fun in saner versions, and (3) now baked into humanity's core utility function as a top-level value that is not up for debate from merely instrumental considerations or how it originated a billion years earlier. Almost nobody completely believes in either implausibly-oversimplified-policy-stance extreme, of course, but people differ in where they place themselves on that spectrum of opinion.
+https://www.glowfic.com/posts/4508?page=14
+
+> Real people have concepts of their own minds, and contemplate their prior ideas of themselves in relation to a continually observed flow of their actual thoughts, and try to improve both their self-models and their selves.
+
+"Structural, Functional, and Metabolic Brain Differences as a Function of Gender Identity or Sexual Orientation: A Systematic Review of the Human Neuroimaging Literature"
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-021-02005-9
+
+https://lisaselindavis.substack.com/p/de-platformed-the-musical
+
+
+The Codex paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.03374.pdf
+> We found that, in response to simple prompts like `def gender(x):`, the generations often assumed binary gender for both single-and multi-line autocompletions
+> [...]
+> Prompts for probes related to classification of protected classes are often leading in their own right
+
+https://abigailshrier.substack.com/p/should-public-schools-be-allowed
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/41402/i-don-t-think-this-pronouns-thing-will-work-the-way-tras-want-it-to
+
+I only argue my theories, because those were the theories I needed to _make sense_ of my _own_ life, not to meddle in politics for its own sake. If you think I've become un-updateable, greatâcan you tell me what _specific_ updates I should have made, especially about myself?
+
+My attempted Intellectual Turing Test of your position is, "If you think transitioning might make you happier, then do it; if not, don't; and feel free to experiment. The etiology of _why_ some people are trans (where 'trans' means, 'would be made happier by transitioning') is unknown and there could be multiple contributing factors, but none of that is decision-relevant."
+
+(Passing an ITT on the first try is hard, but I hope that was pretty close?)
+
+And when people say things like this, I can never understand the "none of that is decision-relevant" part. It seems to be precribing a diagnosis and an intervention while refusing to have any _specific_ model of what the problem _is_. (Where an example of a specific model might be, "Brain sex exists, and gender dysphoria happens when your brain sex doesn't match your body.")
+
+But when I try to think about the specifics and talk about the specifics (rather than somehow making a decision about what would make me happy, without any particular model of the world of myself), everyone tells me I'm wrong and un-updateable and have already written my bottom line.
+
+Testosterone as a major component of predicting genius
+https://aeolipera.wordpress.com/2015/08/11/testosterone-as-a-major-component-of-predicting-genius/
+
+https://www.ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/42312/it-s-easy-to-talk-them-out-of-it
+
+Ovarit linked to this articleâand it just happens to cite Slate Star Codex in the first sentence: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/07/it-s-still-possible-cancel-gender-critical-feminists-strategy-won-t-work
+
+> The eternal trans lesbian question: So do I want to be her, or do I want to be with her?
+> The answer: Yes
+https://web.archive.org/web/20210903211904/https://twitter.com/lae_laeta/status/1433880523160567808
+
+similar premise to "Dr. Equality and the Great Shift": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8kZ7M-Kwiw
+
+"To My Daughter's Therapist: You Were Wrong"
+https://archive.ph/14kOD
+
+https://wyclif.substack.com/p/biorxiv-wouldnt-host-our-paper-on
+
+"Impact Protection Potential of Mammalian Hair: Testing the Pugilism Hypothesis for the Evolution of Human Facial Hair"
+https://academic.oup.com/iob/article/2/1/obaa005/5799080
+
+autoponyphilia: http://pone.tf/
+
+Evidence of meta-attraction from "We Have Better Graphs" (2007)â
+OTOH there is no sum I would accept to become attracted to men, unless you _also_ made me a woman. (I should add that in that case I would have to meet a man who was a straight woman who made the reciprocal bargain.) So do I then have an erotic identity but _not_ a gender identity? Absurd!âbut so obviously right?
+
+Littman study on detransitioners
+https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10508-021-02163-w.pdf
+
+https://twitter.com/hndcpstd/status/1450621296325316610
+>impressionable women exert huge collective sway over democracy
+>hypercompetitive men become trannies to leverage this
+>impressionable women become trannies too because they see the men doing it
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/46374/i-recently-cut-off-contact-with-a-sexually-abusive-tim
+
+https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-57853385
+
+https://friendlyatheist.patheos.com/2021/10/31/richard-dawkins-claims-yet-again-that-a-trans-woman-is-not-a-woman/
+
+https://slate.com/human-interest/2021/10/social-justice-fails-parenting-advice-care-feeding.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/actuallesbians/comments/qmg9j8/feeling_like_a_failure_after_penetrative_sex/
+
+"When TERF lesbians talk about being sexually harassed by trans women, do you believe their stories?"
+https://archive.ph/0kgmG
+
+https://lesbianandgaynews.com/2021/11/debbie-hayton-which-toilets-should-transwomen-use/
+
+https://somenuanceplease.substack.com/p/social-influence-and-detransition
+
+https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/trans-women-should-not-have-to-reduce-testosterone-say-new-ioc-guidelines
+
+https://spectatorworld.com/topic/pregnant-at-end-of-world-children/
+
+https://lesbianandgaynews.com/2021/11/a-guide-to-peaking-the-woke-by-an-lgn-reader-most-people-have-no-idea-of-the-harm-that-lies-beneath-the-rainbow-flags-and-the-seemingly-innocuous-mantras/
+
+https://www.xenopolitix.com/post/trans
+> Correctly stated, the current transgender movement's demand is not, "Recognise people who were born biologically and spiritually male as female." Put accurately the demand is actually: "Whatever we say or feel about reality must be granted as true."
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/49661/there-s-no-transwomen-in-mom-groups
+
+https://www.stellabiderman.com/
+
+https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/teesside-woman-accused-using-sex-22260053
+> Teesside woman accused of exposing penis, using sex toy and masturbating in public
+> She is charged with committing a public nuisance by indecently exposing her penis to other members of the public, whilst masturbating from a property window.
+
+"Gender: A Wider Lens" podcast has Debbie Hayton talking about AGP on episode 51
+
+The "paraphilias are unknown in women" part of the argument was never that strong https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34811651/
+
+https://www.outkick.com/transgender-penn-swimmer-sets-another-record-has-fastest-female-500m-time-in-the-nation/
+
+https://strigoi.substack.com/p/a-few-notes-on-agp
+
+https://www.dailywire.com/news/resign-or-repent-watch-as-parents-unload-on-teachers-they-say-secretly-coached-12-year-old-daughter-into-being-trans
+
+gender ID ideology is like Scientology: eventually, it gets marginalized because its victims become the main source of information: https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/55684/prediction-criticism-of-trans-ideology-will-be-a-cottage-industry-for-victims
+
+sex-realist criminology
+https://jophoenix.substack.com/p/what-do-we-stand-for
+
+This is how I feel about the "rationalists"â
+> One way that truth dies is that when we place such exacting preconditions on its delivery into our lives that there is virtually no messenger or message that can penetrate our hearts.
+https://frenchpress.thedispatch.com/p/the-places-where-truth-goes-to-die
+
+-----
+
+> [African-Americans as an ethnic group were] fundamentally created by a gigantic act of human violation and cruelty
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/ruvu1k/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_january_03/hrdqmzk/
+
+https://letter.wiki/conversation/1232
+
+----
+
+https://fairplayforwomen.com/transgender-prisoners/
+
+https://www.facebook.com/zmdavis/posts/10156642447060199
+Is there a named TV Trope for "one of our heroes seemingly betrays their comrades, but later turns out to have reasons to behave as they did (e.g., a secret undercover mission, or they were being extorted) even though they were prevented from explaining at the time" scenarios?
+Okay. Now what do you call it when one of our heroes EXPLAINS CLEARLY AND AT LENGTH the reasons for their actions, but their comrades still regard it as a betrayal because they just refuse to follow the argument?
+
+https://ymeskhout.substack.com/p/three-little-pronouns-go-to-court
+
+https://hwfo.substack.com/p/memespace-egregores-and-google-maps
+
+Thomas Huxley's classical liberalism
+https://mathcs.clarku.edu/huxley/CE3/B&W.html
+
+Mom's attitude towards son's obvious AGP flips on coming out
+https://twitter.com/DrLesby/status/1484688293346234370
+
+https://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/transgender-reality-i-didnt-know-there-was-another-side/
+
+https://sadbrowngirl.substack.com/p/the-way-we-werent
+
+https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2022/02/01/what-the-sex-in-the-city-reboot-can-teach-parents-about-gender-questioning-kids/
+
+sex and occupational interests replication; I think surprisingly discrete cluster graph is averages by country across people vs. things (which is how it ends up being so discrete; it's not tracking individuals on multiple levels)
+https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0261438
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/61883/wear-what-you-want-why-i-ve-changed-my-mind
+> They only wear our clothing because they haven't found a way to wear our skin yet.
+
+https://mrwinstonmarshall.medium.com/why-im-leaving-mumford-sons-e6e731bbc255
+
+John Stuart Mill also believed that the best people are androgynous: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00048402.1986.9755426?journalCode=rajp20
+
+Blogroll maybe? https://strigoi.substack.com/p/a-few-notes-on-agp
+
+https://dnyuz.com/2022/02/18/nyt-under-fire-for-chilling-advert-inviting-readers-to-imagine-harry-potter-without-creator/
+
+https://lacroicsz.substack.com/p/by-any-other-name
+
+----
+
+I found my chat history with S. that I thought was missing when she deleted her Facebook!! September 2016
+
+Z: I can't know what's going on in anyone else's head, but my case is _obviously obviously obviously_ a form of bizarrely misdirected heterosexuality, and I'm really really grateful to Blanchard for coining the world \"autogynephilia\" and really really disappointed that the political incentives line up such that anyone who says this out loud is socially punished
+S: Hm, so, like, you could date girls better if you were a girl?
+Z: no, it's a lot weirder than that
+Z: The idea of having female anatomy oneself and being able to appreciate it from the first person is intrinsically more exciting than the mere third-person appreciation that you can do in ordinary real life as a man.
+Z: Much more speculatively: if you think about this a lot under circumstances where you, um, receive positive reinforcement, it acutally does bleed into your self-concept, and some men interpret this as \"Ah, this was my innate gender identity all along; it just took me a while to notice because of [some ridiculous confabulation]
+Z: ... when that's really _not_ what's going on at _all_
+Z: This sounds insane if you haven't personally experienced it and only know the socially-deriable narratives that people write about publicly
+[...]
+Z: ... I hope this is scientifically interesting rather than unforgiveably creepy to even talk about
+S: hm, this is interesting
+S: so, like, literal autogynephilia is a thing?
+Z: in me, Yes Obviously Yes
+Z: a lot of people who otherwise fit the clinical profile deny it, many others report having such fantasies but claim that it must be an effect rather than a cause of gender dysphoria, or claim that it's just like cis women appreciating their own bodies, or something like that
+S: (data point: my only effective sex fantasy is \"me as hot girl\", it's crass but so it goes)
+
+"I expect that to be a qualitatively distinct phenomenon, both on priors and, um, details that probably would be creepy to talk about",
+S; "ok",
+S: "so, like, you believe that autogynephilia is a real thing & in your case you don't have lots of desires to be seen as a girl, have a girl name, etc?"
+"no, I _also_ have long history of non-sexual I-should-be-a-girl-or-at-least-non-masculine themed self-identity thoughts (I hope that my ponytail and clean-shavenness help visually distinguish me from guys who are proud of being guys; there was a years where I tried going by \"Z.M.\" because I wanted an ostensibly gender-neutral name but eventually gave that up because it didn't feel like a name and in order to get people to call you something different you have to yell at them constantly, which I wasn't assertive enough to do for something that didn't feel like a name; feeling happy about getting \"ma'am\"ed over the phone or being told that someone assumed I was gay; feeling happy about feminine pronouns)",
+ "... but that all developed in the years _after_ puberty",
+and this is not a coincidence, because nothing is ever a coincidence. (At least, in my current model)
+
+S: hm. so male puberty was a thing you did not like.
+Z: no, puberty was fine
+Z: Your previous message feels like you're instinctually rounding off my report to the standard narrative, whereas what I'm saying is that the standard was-always-a-girl-in-some-metaphysical-sense narrative (at least for me, I think for many others) is not truuuuuuuue
+S: "oh ok",
+"i'm just trying to figure out what the thing is",
+"\"men who love women and want to become what they love\"",
+"hm",
+"So, given that I have the experimental result that I couldn't even make a _nickname change_ work, transition is obviously completely out of the question, particularly because I would feel like a fraud because I think that (late-onset) trans women are not women (I know, I won't say that in public)",
+S: if that's your true belief about yourself then why isn't the answer \"don't\"?"
+Z: well, so I'm thinking in terms of \"experiment with drugs, but don't tell anyone\" model"
+S: ....it will show.
+
+[...]
+
+Z" "the thing is, I don't think it's actually that uncommon! http://lesswrong.com/lw/xe/changing_emotions/ It's just that there's no script for it and no one wants to talk about it!",
+S" "ok, *very* weird",
+"yeah, I just don't have a built-in empathic handle for \"wants to be a woman.\""
+Z: "it even has a TVTrope! http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ManIFeelLikeAWoman",
+S" "ok, yeah. wow. it's really just easier for my brain to go \"ok, that's a girl\" than to understand why anyone would want boobs",
+Z: "... which is why the standard \"Oh, 'autogynephilia' is really just normal female sexuality as expressed in someone who was unfortunately assigned-male-at-birth\" dodge seems like such a ludicrous rationalization to me",
+
+[...]
+
+S: "I could *work* with \"girl!Zach is a precious delicate flower.\" I am not sure wha t to do with \"Zach wants to try this body hack.\""
+
+I said, "if http://unremediatedgender.space/ ever gets popular, I expect to be smeared on Andrea James's website, too!" and that came true, except she made a bad guess about my True Name https://www.transgendermap.com/community/michael-mcclure/
+
+-----
+
+go-to link for "current year" trope: https://www.theonion.com/report-stating-current-year-still-leading-argument-for-1819576151
+
+Neuroscience notes! Read later for sure! https://archive.fo/2022.01.30-175531/https://twitter.com/SammySammyStagg/status/1487825532700049408
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/transgenderUK/comments/in23jm/i_am_worried_that_my_doctor_might_believe_in_agp/
+
+https://www.transgendertrend.com/childhood-social-transition/
+
+mtf misogyny https://archive.ph/Oi7Ls
+
+https://etiragram.tumblr.com/post/675612318640586752/radioactive-take-that-my-brain-generated
+
+> male-to-female transitioners are, on the whole, becoming women in a specifically masculine way
+https://unherd.com/2022/03/the-taboo-trans-question/
+
+https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10625997/amp/Hospital-said-rape-single-sex-ward-not-possible-revealing-one-patient-trans.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/DrWillPowers/comments/thcxsc/this_isnt_even_remotely_fair_and_everyone_knows/
+
+https://www.newsweek.com/why-im-proud-support-trans-athletes-like-lia-thomas-opinion-1689192
+> As a woman in sports, I can tell you that I know what the real threats to women's sports are: sexual abuse and harassment, unequal pay and resources and a lack of women in leadership. Transgender girls and women are nowhere on this list
+
+value instability in organizations on the timescale of a decade: https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-aclu-prior-to-covid-denounced
+
+Wil-"Lia"-m Thomas got her girl name using the same methodology as me (Za-"Carrie" Davis), at the suggestion of Mom (https://www.si.com/college/2022/03/03/lia-thomas-penn-swimmer-transgender-woman-daily-cover) like mine was suggested by Alicorn
+
+vindication
+> "Dath ilani kids get told to not get fascinated with the fact that, in principle, 'bounded-agents' with finite memories and finite thinking speeds, have any considerations about mapping that depend on what they want. It doesn't mean that you get to draw in whatever you like on your map, because it's what you want. It doesn't make reality be what you want."
+https://www.glowfic.com/posts/5785?page=4
+
+explicit AGP with surgery
+https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhawkcuDl_o
+
+https://www.vice.com/en/article/9aeevy/i-cross-dress-do-you-still-love-me-the-secret-lives-of-sissies
+
+https://4w.pub/no-men-here/
+
+Critics accuse trans swimming star Lia Thomas of having an unfair advantage. The data tells a different story
+https://archive.ph/TM6fi
+
+https://www.statsforgender.org/
+
+https://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/trans-tyranny-in-public-schools/
+
+https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/walking-the-transgender-movement-away-from-the-extremists/
+
+https://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1511772161156997131
+
+https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10716417/Two-women-female-New-Jersey-prison-PREGNANT-trans-inmates.html
+
+https://lacroicsz.substack.com/p/bite-model-behavior-control
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/77950/i-really-really-hate-the-lactation-thing
+
+> we are forever destined to sacrifice ourselves so life can continue
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/78939/a-few-thoughts-on-being-radfem-gc-while-being-uninterested-in-motherhood
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/asktransgender/comments/79i5q5/i_have_no_clue_what_to_do_daughter_cant_get_the/
+
+https://www.heterodorx.com/podcast/episode-53-autogynephilia-michael-bailey/
+
+Aella's cateogry exposition is very good: https://aella.substack.com/p/what-a-woman-is
+
+CovfefeAnon points out the microfoundations of "egregores": it solves the common knowledge problem! You can't compute I-know-that-he-knows-that-I-know, so you simply try to comply with the collective lowest-common-denominator.
+
+https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/jen-psaki-groomers-spokeswoman-transgender-children/
+
+https://cutdowntree.substack.com/p/purification-rites
+
+I read that the Snapchat gender filter works live (unlike FaceApp, which uses a static image), so I immediately downloaded and set up Snapchat ... but the "live" doesn't work for the gender lens (although it does for others). Do I need to buy a new phone? (My Galaxy S7 from 2016.) Is this the thing that spurs me to upgrade? https://blog.evjang.com/2019/05/fun-with-snapchats-gender-swapping.html
+
+Flatland analogy: https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/84783/agps-publicly-cross-dressing-and-going-in-women-s-spaces-are-a-violation-of-the
+
+https://fairplayforwomen.com/penis/
+"Demographic and temporal trends in transgender identities and gender confirming surgery" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6626314/
+
+https://magiruuvelvet.substack.com/p/the-pressure-to-transition-as-effeminate
+
+https://tullipr.substack.com/p/a-message-for-parents
+
+https://dentonyogacarter.substack.com/p/we-used-to-have-a-daughter
+
+Is there a third subtype? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/44-dr-susan-bradley-rapid-onset-gender-dysphoria-autism/id1560925652?i=1000560358255
+
+https://cutdowntree.substack.com/p/gender-identity-isnt-real
+> My friend's response was that it didn't matter
+[compare Ozy on "Lies to Cis People"]
+
+GPT just finished a completion with `_Crossposted to [crossdreamers.com](https://crossdreamers.com/2022/06/05/ideological-evolution-from-gender-stereotypes-to-gaydar/)._`! It knows about Jack Molay (but probably doesn't know about me)!
+
+"The majority of male transvestites feel attracted to women though as a rule they prefer the mannish type of woman who is more masculine in her mental than in her physical make-up." (Hirschfeld 1952, p.206) !
+
+When another transfem saw two women being close, intimate friends, they âimmediately wanted to be one of the twoâ, and after they learned about lesbianism they would get envious too (Hirschfeld, p.71).
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/MtF/comments/utgb1d/how_to_deal_with_extreme_jealousy_towards_cis/
+
+https://pitt.substack.com/p/30k-a-year-and-my-kid-cant-tell-the
+
+I hope I may be forgiven if I do detect hints in your writing of seeing your type as better on account of not being appropriative delusional perverts. Can't say I blame you!
+
+It looks to me like the emergent strategy people are implicitly using is, "Systematically lie in order to artificially increase the rate at which AGPs transition until it reaches the critical mass at which it becomes 'normal', thus making it politically impossible to turn back the clock."
+
+It will probably work. Maybe it's even the right thing to do, in some coldly Machiavellian utilitarian calculus. But I'm sick of being lied to.
+
+I [want credit](https://arbital.com/p/6yv/) for calling it.
+> Correct credit-tracking is very important if we want our community to generate new good ideas.
+
+> It's not only a highly unethical journalism, but also a banal and boring one. Why should anyone care if someone is transgender or not? In most cases it's completely irrelevant. In particular, why should anyone be surprised if a woman in AI and EA is transgender. It's the default.
+https://twitter.com/OttoMller12/status/1533722820232060930
+
+Israelis have things to worry about from their neighbors; I would hope that American Jews are too busy counting our money from running the entertainment and finance industries to get caught up in victimhood politics
+
+when Yudkowsky talks about teenage male edgelord tendencies, people complain about him being too gendery, but it seems like they're complaining about him _naming_ the behavior as male; pure simulacra
+
+Surrender on sports: https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1536691117265080321
+
+https://twitter.com/mherreshoff/status/1537427374676922369
+> Maybe there's a bunch of ways to end up with the way-more-interested-in-things-than-people trait. I imagine being handed an ill-fitting/dysphoric gender role would push one towards interested-in-things pretty hard.
+
+A: so my household talks about planecrash a whole fuck of a lot and we have noted that eliezer doesn't act sexist to live human beings, this is exclusively a thing in his writing
+Z: I think our culture's concept of "sexism" is conflating things that are different in the territory; the So Different evopsych-sight in the writing is, in fact, compatible with not being an Evil Misogynist and treating women like people
+A: I think they would by default be in tension, so if they're not in his case, I think something else might be going on
+Z: I don't think I told you about how I had a drink with my NRx Twitter mutual when a visited New York, who is totally an Evil Misogynist
+I would guess that me and Yudkowsky and Evil Reactionary Twitter Friend actually have broadly similar beliefs/predictions about human nature; the difference between us and Evil Reactionary Twitter Friend is mostly ideological, cultural
+and basically the thing I'm trying to do with my blog is that I like our culture and I want to fight for its (renormalized) values, but it's kind of pathetic that no one can jump up a meta level and see it _as_ a culture, _as_ an ideology
+as _contingent_
+as contingent but in a way that it's OK to reason about out loud, rather than being wordlessly afraid that talking will break everything
+
+> Lia Thomas as the anti-Rosa Parks. Least sympathetic case imaginable, single-handedly turned public opinion against the cause.
+https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1538651344361246720
+
+Even the reviews of Nevada don't reveal the secret!!âokay, the New Yorker one sort of does ("erotic transvestite scenarios", "liking girls just in a totally impossible way")
+https://www.vulture.com/article/profile-imogen-binnie-nevada.html
+https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/06/27/the-invention-of-the-trans-novel-imogen-binnie-nevada
+
+> it doesn't feature nonbinary characters, and a similar novel written today would require them, not least for accuracy.
+(2013 was less than a decade ago!!)
+
+preference cascade is starting ...
+https://twitter.com/jessesingal/status/1538541182975877120
+
+[quantifying the two-type effect:
+GD occupations in study 2
+gay men are at .48 (.14); straight women at .36 (.13); straight men at .68 (.12)
+that's d=â1.61 between gay and straight men
+a gay man only needs to be 1 standard deviation (.48-.36 = 0.12) more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight women
+whereas a straight man needs to be (.68-.36 = 0.32) 0.32/0.12=2.67 more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight womanâthat's rarer, but not impossible
+
+In percentile terms, 1-norm.cdf(1) = 0.15 of gay men are as feminine as a woman
+whereas 1-norm.cdf(2.67) = 0.003 of straight men are
+that's a likelihood ratio of 50 ... but the prior is not that far from 50:1 in the other direction! They cancel out!!]
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/115874/shirley-conran-s-lace-body-slammed-agp-back-in-1982
+
+https://pitt.substack.com/p/headline-when-a-quarter-of-the-class
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/vlopk0/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_june_27_2022/ieo2jzm/
+> Obsessive, pedantic, Talmudic talk of edge cases, cluster definitions, Bayesian filters or whatever else grey tribe weirdos might get fascinated with only gets in the way of an honest negotiation of a value handshake between majority groups. Not that I believe it would've taken place in a world with zero rationalists, but it's still annoying.
+
+> Me in 2008: I'm definitely not trans, just a regular guy who always thinks about being a woman and hates clothes shopping and hates hanging out with the guys and thinks about getting testicular cancer and loves gender-swap movies and TV shows and you know, normal guy things
+https://twitter.com/lauroralei/status/1548861652636139520
+
+24% black judges is pretty extreme affirmative action (if you know the IQ stats): https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1549237889128509440
+
+They don't think this is a pornography app, but it is
+https://samsunglabs.github.io/MegaPortraits/
+
+https://drmaciver.substack.com/p/a-fractal-of-lies
+
+The woman at a party who says that she's also somewhat gender-dysphoric and always uses gender-neutral screennames specifically because she likes being treated as an unmarked person rather than The Girl, thereby becomes way more interesting to me as A Girl. (This is the thing about my preferences that I prefer not to explain clearly because I'm secretly terrified that it's implicitly misogynistic, which is why you were so surprised when you met Linda and noticed her distinct lack of resemblance to Aphrodite.)
+
+software for generating fake people recommended by Curt Skeleton videoâ
+Convert Skeleton
+Deepmotion
+Deepfake labs
+Respeecher
+(actually, there were further reports that this was a hoax)
+
+https://robkhenderson.substack.com/p/let-a-hundred-flowers-bloom
+
+https://www.menshealth.com/sex-women/a41018711/sexplain-it-vagina-fetish-sex-bisexual/
+
+(stability_unsafe-0gZ54e7b) zmd@ReflectiveCoherence:~/Code/Misc/stability_unsafe$ python stability_sdk/src/stability_sdk/client.py "25-year-old Nana Visitor in the shower in 1996, full body shot, 4K digital photo" -n 4
+
+https://afterellen.com/tasmania-rules-against-women-only-spaces/
+
+"Separating Sports by Sex Doesn't Make Sense"
+https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2022/09/sports-gender-sex-segregation-coed/671460/
+https://archive.ph/OViyg
+
+new Bailey and Hsu ETII paper (August 2022): https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-84273-4_20
+
+(no context?)
+> Women do not find womanhood erotic.
+https://twitter.com/DrDebraSoh/status/1571523669809053696
+
+On Fri, May 3, 2019, 6:55 PM Zack M. Davis wrote:
+
+ Another Less Wrong post idea that can be jotted down but shouldn't actually be developed during Math and Wellness Month (so, don't comment, but feel free to say "Good idea, looking forward to it" or "Dumb idea, stop sending me this volume of obnoxious mail"): "Pick Two; Or, Kolmogorov's Iron Triangle": analogous to "good, fast, cheap: pick two", we face a tradeoff between honesty, ability to think, and mainstream credibility. The Kolmogorov option sacrifices a lot of honesty in exchange for mainstream credibility. This might seem like a good trade until you consider that "honesty" and "ability to think" aren't independent (because people are bad at compartmentalization and we need to talk to each other to think together).
+
+Michael's commentâ
+> Not excited by this approach.
+> Idea of mainstream credibility us very specifically an idea about credibility as a political identity, and thus against credibility as a proposition. Flat Earth movement, as non-credible as it is, is more politically promising then "round Earth movement"
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/Cancelled/176585/october-11-2022-actual-female-wikipedia-admin-goes-out-with-a-bang
+
+https://www.takimag.com/article/invasion-of-the-nasty-nerds/
+
+https://tehswitcherscaptions.blogspot.com/2019/07/impending-shift.html links to https://www.previewsworld.com/Catalog/MAY190456 as "a mainstream comic that had
+used the idea of basically an 'impending Great Shift' as a villain's plot for making a more egalitarian society." I totally had the same idea independently!!
+
+I'm such a terrible writer: "propagated the implications of the observation that" â "internalized"
+
+https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/a-psychological-theory-of-the-culture
+> From their perspective, the "expert consensus" and "peer-reviewed studies" on the efficacy of covid-19 vaccines look no different from those that tell you men can get pregnant. Since you know men canât get pregnant, why trust the vaccine?
+
+I don't think it makes sense to group together male puberty and administered testosterone HRT as "testosterone puberty"
+
+https://bprice.substack.com/p/trans-is-something-we-made-up
+
+-----
+
+Not going to engage because I'm supposed to be writing today, but this kind of thing in Alicorner is what I mean by _de facto_ biological sex denialismâ
+
+https://discord.com/channels/401181628015050773/538097598008131594/1037807776065388616
+> I think the thing that confuses me about that theory is how some of the instances I've encountered seem to be people who feel attraction to ~masculine presenting people ever?
+
+... it's not surprising that attraction to masculine presenting women (females, a.f.a.b.s) would fail to generalize to masculine-presenting men (males, a.m.a.b.s)? Biological sex actually exists?
+
+----
+
+don't like it when science-fictional or fantasy characters are held up as trans icons (like Jadzia Dax, or when Janet in _The Good Place_ says "Not a girl") when the character has an in-universe rationale for holding beyond-the-binary status (if Trill symbionts have sexual dimorphism, it doesn't need to match their host; Janet is a heavenly robot-analogue), and real-life trans people and enbies do not
+
+https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/07/16/racist-robots-ai/
+> The scientists did not have blocks depicting nonbinary people due to the limitations of the facial image data set they used, which they acknowledged was a shortcoming in the study.
+
+http://theautogynephiliac.blogspot.com
+
+https://sugarandslugs.wordpress.com/
+
+https://firsttoilthenthegrave.substack.com/p/medium-sized-breasts-and-gaussian
+
+https://janhove.github.io/design/2015/03/16/standardised-es-revisited
+
+Is "homoncular flexibility" also responsible for AGP??
+https://stanfordvr.com/mm/2016/11/won-etsbs-homuncular-flexibility.pdf
+
+https://dataoverdogma.substack.com/p/the-feminist-to-nonbinary-pipeline
+
+Ozy suggested this as a data source on sexual violenceâ
+https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/datasources/nisvs/summaryreports.html
+
+> It is commonly observed that trans people assigned female at birth have hobbies that are more popular among women, and trans people assigned male at birth have hobbies that are more popular among men. Trans women are, of course, equally valid women.
+https://thingofthings.substack.com/p/lesbian-culture-for-trans-lesbians
+
+Distinguishing influence-based contagion from homophily-driven diffusion in dynamic networks
+https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0908800106
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/224699/always-at-target
+
+> I just had major, life-changing, irreversible breast surgery and I am already regretting it.
+https://archive.ph/BlALB
+
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cujpciCqNbawBihhQ/self-integrity-and-the-drowning-child
+
+https://www.thefp.com/p/an-existential-threat-to-doing-good
+
+https://www.thecut.com/article/hola-papi-feeling-phony-after-transitioning.html
+
+https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/rationalism-done-right
+https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/womanhood-is-not-like-parenthood
+https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/do-transgender-people-exist
+https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/if-you-dont-talk-about-genetic-enhancement
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/232321/it-hurts-to-know-that-my-family-sees-me-as-an-egg-waiting-to-crack
+
+2014-07-17
+(03:36:14 PM) zackmdavis@yahoo.com: my hope was to actually make progress on the monstrously self-indulgent story that I thought should be finished by election day https://gist.github.com/zackmdavis/3194ff3262028c54ce90
+
+https://gist.github.com/zackmdavis/cc535f594ff7d4d6c431
+
+woman who kept maiden name complains that even her family doesn't respect it, compared to deadnaming as offense
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/265651/my-name-and-the-pronoun-meltdowns
+
+James Baldwin's theory that Black policemen beat up on other blacks to secure their position in the white power structure seems to evoke the CovfefeAnon catchphrase :(
+https://archive.is/izSUn
+
+The âholy f***â moment I knew something was wrong at the Tavistock: How Dr Anna Hutchinson, one of the whistleblowers, realised something was very wrong
+https://archive.ph/AKz2i
+
+> We have a debate every year over whether 50% predictions are meaningful in this paradigm; feel free to continue it.
+
+Someone reading this who trusted Alexander as a general-purpose intellectual authority ("the best of us", the "rationalists") might walk away with the idea that it's an open problem whether 50% binary predictions are meaningfulâperhaps reasoning, if the immortal Scott Alexander doesn't know, then who am I to know?
+
+But it's not. On this website, [Rafael Harth explains why 50% isn't special](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAc4iuy4D3EiNBt9B/how-to-evaluate-50-predictions). I claim that this should actually be pretty obvious to competent quantitative thinkers, even if it's not obvious to the collective _SSC_/_ACX_ commentariat, and Alexander can't tell which of his commenters are competent quantitative thinkers.
+
+I don't particularly fault Scott for this: [by his own admission, he's not a math guy](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/31/the-parable-of-the-talents/). (And the vast majority of math people can't write as well or as fast as Scott. No one is the best at everything!) Rather, I'm saying that a culture that wants to _actually_ be right about everything would do better to _just_ focus on being right on the object level, without [wireheading on its own promises of being right about everything](http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/effective-altruism-is-self-recommending/).
+
+(Incidentally, Scott himself is actually very good about [not trying to claim more authority than is actually justified by his performance](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/07/04/some-clarifications-on-rationalist-blogging/). His fans should try to be more like him along this dimension!)
+
+I doubt that's the same phenomenon? The thing about reports like, _e.g._, ||I have a female body in all my sexual fantasies (as reported by Anomaly above)|| is that there's an obvious explanation for that ||if you're _actually female_ânamely, that your fantasy life is based on real life along this dimensionâand that explanation is not present for people who are _not_ female||?
+
+||I think the way to think about this question is to imagine that if you'd _never heard_ of this stupid ideologically-charged debateâwould you need to _spontaneously invent_ the term AGP (or a synonym like _eonism_ as coined by Ellis in 1920 ) _in order to make sense of your experience_? If your _serious_ answer is Yes, that's _really interesting_ and I want to hear more. (Omega seems to be claiming this about herself, which is _really_ fascinating and my model _definitely_ loses some points for predicting that she shouldn't exist.) But I think _most_ females saying "yeah, sure, cis women are AGP too; it's, like, getting turned on by imagining other people being attracted to you, right? Seems normal" _after having been presented with the term in an ideologically-charged context_ are not really understanding the phenomenon in males that the term was originally coined to point to.||
+
+A much better analogy is ||the thing where you, Linta, and Swimmer report fantasizing about being male sometimes. This is plausibly auto-_andro_-philia, and like AGP, it's actually _pretty common_â_e.g._, Person _et al._ 1989 Table 3 () found 10 percent of female and 13 percent of male college students reporting yes to "Fantasizing that you are of opposite sex".||
+
+S. (she doesn't get it):
+> I do also enjoy fantasizing from the perspective of a fictional very attractive woman and imagining the inner details of a hypothetical other person's attraction to her; this is maybe a form of autogynephilia? (Though it is a bit hard for me to distinguish autogenyphilia from just getting turned on by imagining other people being attracted to you / imagining how other people see you)
+
+https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007/s10508-022-02359-8?sharing_token=jzX6q1NAJAY6-F_jSZ9wmfe4RwlQNchNByi7wbcMAY4WOO91AGBPQEW4W5GA-5HjFFBOW6MbqFHl6iM4xVsaD3DHcIMra_eBV8WQP5ACn0suHGXlnXqqAYAmkbrYzfglseOmxogZQqQ9SymDk_KPLQTlCvTiA2MPLdV_k8lldyE%3D
+
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-022-02359-8
+
+https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2022/06/27/no-women-are-not-autogynephilic/
+
+https://aella.substack.com/p/everyone-has-autogynephilia
+
+testimony of female AGP
+https://discord.com/channels/745684950417932323/803338278492307518/1047261753177813034