check in

diff --git a/content/drafts/book-review-facing-reality.md b/content/drafts/book-review-facing-reality.md
index 360388b..5b435ae 100644 (file)
--- a/content/drafts/book-review-facing-reality.md
+++ b/content/drafts/book-review-facing-reality.md
@@ -284,3 +284,5 @@ Prof under investigation after making comments about race and IQ in class
 https://archive.ph/d5Hks
 
 https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/inconvenient-truths/?utm_source=pocket_mylist
+
+https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/10292/predicting-polygenic-selection-for-iq/

diff --git a/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md b/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
index f783106..1357c32 100644 (file)
--- a/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
+++ b/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
@@ -8,7 +8,13 @@ A lot of people tend to balk when first hearing about the [two-type taxonomy of
 
 In some ways, it's a fair complaint! Psychology is _complicated_; every human is their own unique snowflake. But it would be impossible to navigate the world using the "every human is their own unique _maximum-entropy_ snowflake" theory. In order to [compress our observations](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mB95aqTSJLNR9YyjH/message-length) of the world we see, we end up distilling our observations into categories, clusters, diagnoses, taxons: no one matches any particular clinical-profile stereotype _exactly_, but [the world makes more sense when you have language for theoretical abstractions](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions) like ["comas"](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/11/does-the-glasgow-coma-scale-exist-do-comas/) or "depression" or "bipolar disorder"—or "autogynephilia".
 
-Concepts and theories are good to the extent that they can "pay for" their complexity by making more accurate predictions. How much complexity is worth how much accuracy? Arguably, it depends! General relativity has superceded Newtonian classical mechanics as the ultimate theory of how gravity works, but if you're not dealing with velocities approaching the speed of light, Newton still makes _very good_ predictions: it's pretty reasonable to still talk about Newtonian gravitation being true if it makes the math easier on you, and the more complicated math doesn't give appreciably different answers to the problems you're interested in. Moreover, if relativity hasn't been invented yet, it makes sense to stick with Newtonian gravity as the _best_ theory you have _so far_, even if there are a few anomalies [like the precession of Mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_general_relativity#Perihelion_precession_of_Mercury) that it struggles to explain.
+Concepts and theories are good to the extent that they can "pay for" their complexity by making more accurate predictions. How much complexity is worth how much accuracy? Arguably, it depends! General relativity has superceded Newtonian classical mechanics as the ultimate theory of how gravity works, but if you're not dealing with velocities approaching the speed of light, Newton still makes _very good_ predictions: it's pretty reasonable to still talk about Newtonian gravitation being true if it makes the math easier on you, and the more complicated math doesn't give appreciably different answers to the problems you're interested in.
+
+Moreover, if relativity hasn't been invented yet, it makes sense to stick with Newtonian gravity as the _best_ theory you have _so far_, even if there are a few anomalies [like the precession of Mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tests_of_general_relativity#Perihelion_precession_of_Mercury) that it struggles to explain.
+
+The same general principles of reasoning apply to psychological theories—although, tragically, 
+
+
 
 
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_graph

diff --git a/notes/a-hill-of-validity-sections.md b/notes/a-hill-of-validity-sections.md
index 18c9ae1..df84c9c 100644 (file)
--- a/notes/a-hill-of-validity-sections.md
+++ b/notes/a-hill-of-validity-sections.md
@@ -680,3 +680,5 @@ postyud
 Scott has the power to set narratives, as evidenced by his attack on Michael hijacking Jessica's thread
 
 maybe he should have some sympathy for Stephen J. Gould's intellectual crimes
+
+Feb. 2016 happy price schedule https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10153956696609228

diff --git a/notes/notes.txt b/notes/notes.txt
index 030a9a2..7f671f0 100644 (file)
--- a/notes/notes.txt
+++ b/notes/notes.txt
@@ -3064,3 +3064,16 @@ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhawkcuDl_o
 https://www.vice.com/en/article/9aeevy/i-cross-dress-do-you-still-love-me-the-secret-lives-of-sissies
 
 https://4w.pub/no-men-here/
+
+In a discussion on criticism of EA by outsiders, Lorelei spontaneously (not prompted by me) mentioned the difference between when fellow trans women called themselves AGP, vs. actual Blanchardians. This is a conspiracy!! (The ingroup is allowed to notice things, but when other people notice, deny everything. Compare Michael Anton on "celebration parallax."
+
+Critics accuse trans swimming star Lia Thomas of having an unfair advantage. The data tells a different story
+https://archive.ph/TM6fi
+
+https://www.statsforgender.org/
+
+https://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/trans-tyranny-in-public-schools/
+
+https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/walking-the-transgender-movement-away-from-the-extremists/
+
+https://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1511772161156997131

diff --git a/notes/post_ideas.txt b/notes/post_ideas.txt
index 83bc9ac..b957802 100644 (file)
--- a/notes/post_ideas.txt
+++ b/notes/post_ideas.txt
@@ -6,13 +6,15 @@ _ Trans Kids on the Margin, and Harms From Misleading Training Data
 
 
 Minor—
-_ The Two-Type Taxonomy Is a Useful Approximation for ...
 _ Student Dysphoria, and a Previous Life's War
+_ my medianworld: https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1619639#reply-1619639
+_ The Two-Type Taxonomy Is a Useful Approximation for ...
+
+
 _ Happy Meal
 _ Link: "On Transitions, Freedom of Form, [...]"
 _ Reply to Scott Alexander on Autogenderphilia
 
-
 _ https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WikzbCsFjpLTRQmXn/declustering-reclustering-and-filling-in-thingspace
 _ Subspatial Distribution Overlap and Cancellable Stereotypes
 _ "But I'm Not Quite Sure What That Means": Costs of Nonbinary Gender as a Social Technology
@@ -55,6 +57,7 @@ _ Link: Quillette on Sons Becoming Daughters
 _ Link: Babylon Bee "It's a Good Life" parody https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20ALZgd6_Ek
 
 LW—
+_ reply to David Silver on AI motivations: https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/SbAgRYo8tkHwhd9Qx/deepmind-the-podcast-excerpts-on-agi#David_Silver_on_it_being_okay_to_have_AGIs_with_different_goals_____
 _ Conflict Theory of Bounded Distrust: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bounded-distrust
 _ Steering Towards Agreement Is Like Discouraging Betting
 _ Generic Consequentialists Are Liars