>
> If that starts to scale up, we might see a really, really interesting moral panic in 5–10 years or so. I mean, if you thought gay marriage was causing a moral panic, you just wait and see what comes next ...
-Indeed—here we are over seven years later, and I am panicking.[^panic] (As 2007–9 Sequences-era Yudkowsky [taught me](https://www.yudkowsky.net/other/fiction/the-sword-of-good), and 2016 Facebook-shitposting-era Yudkowsky seemed to ignore, the thing that makes a moral panic really interesting is how hard it is to know you're on the right side of it—and the importance of [panicking](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/erGipespbbzdG5zYb/the-third-alternative) [sideways](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/policy_tugowar.html) in cases like this, where the "maximize the number of trans people" and "minimize the number of trans people" coalitions are both wrong.
+Indeed—here we are over seven years later, and I am panicking.[^panic] As 2007–9 Sequences-era Yudkowsky [taught me](https://www.yudkowsky.net/other/fiction/the-sword-of-good), and 2016 Facebook-shitposting-era Yudkowsky seemed to ignore, the thing that makes a moral panic really interesting is how hard it is to know you're on the right side of it—and the importance of [panicking](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/erGipespbbzdG5zYb/the-third-alternative) [sideways](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/policy_tugowar.html) in cases like this, where the "maximize the number of trans people" and "minimize the number of trans people" coalitions are both wrong.
[^panic]: Or rather, I _did_ panic from mid-2016 to mid-2021, and this and the following posts are a memoir telling the Whole Dumb Story, written in the ashes of my defeat.
Actually, lots. To arbitrarily pick one exhibit, in April 2018, the [/r/MtF subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/MtF/), which then had over 28,000 subscribers, [posted a link to a poll: "Did you have a gender/body swap/transformation 'fetish' (or similar) before you realized you were trans?"](https://archive.is/uswsz). The [results](https://archive.is/lm4ro): [82% of over 2000 respondents said Yes](/images/did_you_have-reddit_poll.png). [Top comment in the thread](https://archive.is/c7YFG), with over 230 karma: "I spent a long time in the 'it's probably just a fetish' camp."
-Certainly, 82% is not 100%. Certainly, you could argue that Reddit has a sampling bias such that poll results and karma scores from /r/MtF fail to match the distribution of opinion among real-world MtFs. But if you don't take the gender-identity story as an axiom and [actually look](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SA79JMXKWke32A3hG/original-seeing) at what people say and do, these kinds of observations are not hard to find. You could [fill an entire subreddit with them](https://archive.is/ezENv) (and then move it to [independent](https://ovarit.com/o/ItsAFetish/) [platforms](https://saidit.net/s/itsafetish/) when the original gets [banned for "promoting hate"](https://www.reddit.com/r/itsafetish/)).
+Certainly, 82% is not 100%. Certainly, you could argue that Reddit has a sampling bias such that poll results and karma scores from /r/MtF fail to match the distribution of opinion among real-world MtFs. But if you don't take the gender-identity story as an axiom and [actually look](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SA79JMXKWke32A3hG/original-seeing) at what people say and do, these kinds of observations are not hard to find. You could [fill an entire subreddit with them](https://archive.is/ezENv) (and then move it to [independent](https://ovarit.com/o/ItsAFetish) [platforms](https://saidit.net/s/itsafetish/) when the original gets [banned for "promoting hate"](https://www.reddit.com/r/itsafetish/)).
Reddit isn't scientific enough for you? Fine. The scientific literature says the same thing. [Blanchard 1985](/papers/blanchard-typology_of_mtf_transsexualism.pdf): 73% of not exclusively androphilic transsexuals acknowledged some history of erotic cross-dressing. (A lot of the classic studies specifically asked about cross-_dressing_, but the underlying desire isn't about clothes; Jack Molay coined the term [_crossdreaming_](https://www.crossdreamers.com/), which seems more apt.) [Lawrence 2005](/papers/lawrence-sexuality_before_and_after_mtf_srs.pdf): of trans women who had female partners before sexual reassignment surgery, 90% reported a history of autogynephilic arousal. [Smith _et al._ 2005](/papers/smith_et_al-transsexual_subtypes_clinical_and_theoretical_significance.pdf): 64% of non-homosexual MtFs (excluding the "missing" and "N/A" responses) reported arousal while cross-dressing during adolescence. (A lot of the classic literature says "non-homosexual", which is with respect to natal sex; the idea is that self-identified bisexuals are still in the late-onset taxon.) [Nuttbrock _et al._ 2011](/papers/nuttbrock_et_al-a_further_assessment.pdf): lifetime prevalence of transvestic fetishism among non-homosexual MtFs was 69%. (For a more detailed literature review, see [Kay Brown's blog](https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/faq-on-the-science/), Phil Illy's book [_Autoheterosexual: Attracted to Being the Opposite Sex_](https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0C62L2GJW), or the first two chapters of [Anne Lawrence's _Men Trapped in Men's Bodies: Narratives of Autogynephilic Transsexualism_](https://surveyanon.files.wordpress.com/2017/07/men-trapped-in-mens-bodies_book.pdf).)
Someone I met at the Berkeley _Less Wrong_ meetup who went by Ziz[^ziz-privacy] denied experiencing autogynephilia at all, and I believe her—but it seems worth noting that Ziz was unusual along a lot of dimensions. Again, I don't think a psychological theory needs to predict _every_ case to be broadly useful for understanding the world.
-[^ziz-privacy]: Ziz [wrote about her interactions with me in _her_ memoir](https://sinceriously.fyi/intersex-brains-and-conceptual-warfare/) and explicitly confirmed with me on 5 November 2019 that we weren't under any confidentiality agreements with each other, so it seems fine for me to name her here.
+[^ziz-privacy]: Ziz [wrote about her interactions with me in _her_ memoir](https://web.archive.org/web/20230601044116/https://sinceriously.fyi/intersex-brains-and-conceptual-warfare/) and explicitly confirmed with me on 5 November 2019 that we weren't under any confidentiality agreements with each other, so it seems fine for me to name her here.
In contrast, many of the people I talked to seemed to report similar experiences to me (at least, to the low resolution of the conversation; I wasn't going to press people for the specific details of their sexual fantasies) but seemed to me to be either pretty delusional, or privately pretty sane but oddly indifferent to the state of public knowledge.
[^koller-and-friedman-ii]: Daphne Koller and Nir Friedman, _Probabilistic Graphical Models: Principles and Techniques_, §18.3.5: "Understanding the Bayesian Score".
-It was as if the part of people that talked didn't have a problem representing their knowledged using a graph generated from a variable ordering that put "biological sex" closer to last than first. I didn't think that was what the True Causal Graph looked like.
+It was as if the part of people that talked didn't have a problem representing their knowledge using a graph generated from a variable ordering that put "biological sex" closer to last than first. I didn't think that was what the True Causal Graph looked like.
-----
-near editing tier—
-✓ scan through "far editing tier" list and scoot anything applicable to the near editing tier
-✓ explain that "A Human's Guide to Words" / 37 Ways are the same text
-✓ explain the title
-✓ happy price subject line in pt. 1
-✓ incentives of gatekeeping and system-mandated lies
-✓ explain back in the _Overcoming Bias_ era
-✓ smooth out "still had his email" callback
-✓ better summary of Littman
-✓ clarify that I'm not a sex work prohibitionist
-✓ Autoheterosexual as secondary literature
-
_ scan through pt. 1½ and extract highlights to include
-pt. 1—
-_ say more about why omit pt. 1½
-_ "Margaret" discussion needs to cover the part where I'd cause less disruption if I transitioned
-_ so embarrassed after the Singularity
-_ mention HRT pause / stop in pt. 1 end
-
-pt. 2—
+pt. 2 near editing tier—
_ explain Michael's gaslighting charge, using the "bowels of Christ" language
_ the function of privacy norms is to protect you from people who want to selectively reveal information to hurt you, so it makes sense that I'm particularly careful about Yudkowsky's privacy and not Scott's, because I totally am trying to hurt Yudkowsky (this also protects me from the charge that by granting more privacy to Yudkowsky than Scott, I'm implying that Yudkowsky said something more incriminating; the difference in treatment is about _me_ and my expectations, rather than what they may or may not have said when I tried emailing them); I want it to be clear that I'm attacking him but not betraying him
_ mention my "trembling hand" history with secrets, not just that I don't like it
_ Eric Weinstein, who was not making this mistake
_ "A Hill": I claim that I'm not doing much psychologizing because implausible to be simultaenously savvy enough to say this, and naive enough to not be doing so knowingly
+to send (Discord) only needed for pt. 2—
+_ Alicorn
+
------
_ mention "special simulator attention" in cxn with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ideas_of_reference_and_delusions_of_reference
_ better explanation of posse formation
_ explain why I'm not being charitable in 2018 thread analysis, that at the time, I thought it had to be a mistake
-
-
-people to consult specifically before pt. 1–3:
-sent, need approval for pt. 1-2—
-✓ Tail (AGP discussion)
-✓ Anna
-✓ Ben/Jessica (Michael)
-✓ "Riley"
-✓ Scott
-- professional editor
-- "Thomas"
-- "Rebecca"
-- Sarah
-
-to write—
-_ Sophia
-_ "Margaret"
-
-
-to send (Discord) only needed for pt. 2—
-_ Alicorn
-
-
----------------
_ "Lenore" psychiatric disaster
------
With internet available—
-_ define ersatz
-_ link to my Facebook post for Coming Out Day
_ "All You Zombies"
_ links to PA hospitals
_ link to my Facebook posts on Azkaban, prematuring conceding the bet, and correcting the bet record
> No I think there's a case for this approach. Like you see the argument for why you might want to be laboriously fair to Yud because it's important that no one dismiss your complaints on the grounds of "I dunno, doesn't seem fair enough for me".
> Whereas doing that for every random person you mention would be a lot of work.
-
I never got an answer to why it was wrong for me to talk to Scott!! And the contradiction between that, and Ben's emphasis on privacy being unjust!
It would have been a lot simpler if you could _just_ make object-level criticisms: "'yelling' is a tendentious description, from our perspective we were arguing passionately"—rather than first
If someone ran over a pedestrian in their car, at the trial you would actually argue about how culpable they are (if they were drunk, it would be worse than if it could be proven to be a freak accident), and "The victim is so much worse off than you!!" isn't actually an argument relevant to determination of culpability
+
+
+When I mentioned re-reading Moldbug on "ignoble privilege", "Thomas" said that it was a reason not to feel the need to seek the approval of women, who had not been ennobled by living in an astroturfed world where the traditional (_i.e._, evolutionarily stable) strategies of relating had been relabeled as oppression. The chip-on-her-shoulder effect was amplified in androgynous women. (Unfortunately, the sort of women I particularly liked.)
+
+He advised me that if I did find an androgynous woman I was into, I shouldn't treat her as a moral authority. Doing what most sensitive men thought of as equality degenerated into female moral superiority, which wrecks the relationship in a feedback loop of testing and resentment. (Women want to win arguments in the moment, but don't actually want to lead the relationship.) Thus, a strange conclusion: to have an egalitarian heterosexual relationship, the man needs to lead the relationship _into_ equality; a dab of patriarchy works better than none.
06/27/2023,116226,0\r
06/28/2023,116226,0\r
06/29/2023,116416,190\r
-06/30/2023,,\r
+06/30/2023,116416,0\r
+07/01/2023,116355,-61\r
+07/02/2023,115949,-406\r
+07/03/2023,115758,-191\r
+07/04/2023,115758,0\r
+07/05/2023,115758,0\r
+07/06/2023,115585,-173\r
+07/07/2023,115058,-527\r
+07/08/2023,115051,-7\r
+07/09/2023,,\r
Cool someday project—use GPT tech to summarize the whole blog: https://matthagy.substack.com/p/hierarchical-categorization-using
replying to Gowers: https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1290407470452547584
+
+In the 1990 U.S. Census, _Davis_ was the 6th most common surname at 0.48%, and _Zachary_ the 181st most common male first name at 0.10%.
+
+the younger son also claiming broke suspension of disbelief
+https://lgbtcouragecoalition.substack.com/p/true-believer
1970 2016/joined.md
1977 2018/dont-negotiate-with-terrorist-memeplexes.md
2059 2020/book-review-the-origins-of-unfairness.md
- 2068 2018/untitled-metablogging-26-december-2018.md
+ 2069 2018/untitled-metablogging-26-december-2018.md
2107 2022/backlog-metablogging-april-2022.md
2144 2019/reply-to-ozymandias-on-fully-consensual-gender.md
2322 2022/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
2774 2017/memoirs-of-my-recent-madness-part-i-the-unanswerable-words.md
3682 2022/comment-on-a-scene-from-planecrash-crisis-of-faith.md
3760 2018/reply-to-the-unit-of-caring-on-adult-human-females.md
- 4046 2022/context-is-for-queens.md
- 6523 2018/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions.md
+ 4049 2022/context-is-for-queens.md
+ 6525 2018/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions.md
11014 2020/book-review-human-diversity.md
12011 2022/challenges-to-yudkowskys-pronoun-reform-proposal.md
- 15737 2021/sexual-dimorphism-in-the-sequences-in-relation-to-my-gender-problems.md
-131288 total
-
+ 15738 2021/sexual-dimorphism-in-the-sequences-in-relation-to-my-gender-problems.md
+ 21485 2023/blanchards-dangerous-idea-and-the-plight-of-the-lucid-crossdreamer.md
+155267 total
1491 algorithms_of_deception.md
1552 endogenous_epistemic_factionalization.md
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / commitdiff