Sunday redemption block 4: mostly re-reading Lippa and extracting stats

diff --git a/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md b/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
index d579ff2..5771060 100644 (file)
--- a/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
+++ b/content/drafts/the-two-type-taxonomy-is-a-useful-approximation-for-a-more-detailed-causal-model.md
@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ With a _sufficiently_ detailed causal story, you could even dispense with the hi
 
 -----
 
-In the case of male-to-female transsexualism, we notice a pattern where androphilic and non-androphilic trans women seem to be different from each other—not just in their sexuality, but also in their age of dysphoria onset, interests, and personality. Many authors have noticed this clustering of traits under various names, [while disagreeing about the underlying causality](/2021/Feb/you-are-right-and-i-was-wrong-reply-to-tailcalled-on-causality/).
+In the case of male-to-female transsexualism, we notice a pattern where androphilic and non-androphilic trans women seem to be different from each other—not just in their sexuality, but also in their age of dysphoria onset, interests, and personality. Many authors have noticed this bimodal clustering of traits under various names, [while disagreeing about the underlying causality](/2021/Feb/you-are-right-and-i-was-wrong-reply-to-tailcalled-on-causality/).
 
 [Blanchard]
 
@@ -42,13 +42,11 @@ In the language of [causal graphs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_graph) (
 
 Let me explain. 
 
-What are the reasons a male-to-female transition might seem like a good idea to someone? Why would a male be interested in living socially as a woman?
+What are the reasons a male-to-female transition might seem like a good idea to someone? Why would a male be interested in living socially as a woman? I see three prominent reasons, depicted as the parents of the transition node in a graph.
 
-I see three prominent reasons, depicted as the nodes 
+First and most obviously, femininity: if you happen to be a male with female-typical psychological traits, then [...]
 
-[1. actually being really feminine]
-
-[2. beautiful pure self-identity thing related to AGP]
+Second—second is hard to explain if you're not already familiar with the phenomenon, but basically, [...]
 
 [3. cultural/ideological factors]
 
@@ -62,7 +60,7 @@ I see three prominent reasons, depicted as the nodes
 
 [Why do I believe this? All six arrows in the graph are something that I think we have a huge weight of evidence for, either formally, or just looking at the world]
 
-[Sexual orientation effect on femininity documented by Lippa]
+[Sexual orientation effect on femininity documented by Lippa and Bailey-Zucker]
 
 [femininity->transition would be obvious even if it weren't in th]
 
@@ -70,7 +68,19 @@ I see three prominent reasons, depicted as the nodes
 
 [I don't have a good formal citation on cultural factors, but it seems really obvious if you've been paying attention for the last decade]
 
-[quantifying the two-type effect: Lippa]
+[quantifying the two-type effect:
+Lippa 2000 "Gender-Related Traits in [...]"
+2.70 effect of femininity for gay vs. not-day  and 1.07 for "any" vs. "no" attraction to men
+mean GD score for non-lesbian women as 0.31; mean score for gay men was 0.30!
+—oh, maybe I want to be using Study 2, which had a better sample of gays
+GD occupations in study 2
+gay men are at .48 (.14); straight women at .36 (.13); straight men at .68 (.12)
+that's d=–1.61 between gay and straight men
+a gay man only needs to be 1 standard deviation (.48-.36 = 0.12) more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight women
+whereas a straight man needs to be (.68-.36 = 0.32) 0.32/0.12=2.67 more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight woman—that's rarer, but not impossible
+]
+
+[okay, my inner Tailcalled is telling me I need to quantitatively model the joint effect of AGP and femininity to see if two types actually emerge]
 
 [further implications: as cultural factors increase, the late-onset type becomes more of a "NOS" rather than AGP type]