But can I take this _literally_ as the _exact_ statement of a moral principle? _Technically?_—no! That's actually not how epistemology works! The proposed principle derives its moral force from the case of complete information: if you _know for a fact_ that I have moral property P, then it would be monstrously unjust to treat me differently just because other people who look like me mostly don't have moral property P. But in the real world, we often—usually—don't _have_ complete information about people, [or even about ourselves](/2016/Sep/psychology-is-about-invalidating-peoples-identities/).
-Bayes's theorem (just [a few inferential steps away from the definition of conditional probability itself](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem#Derivation), barely worthy of being called a "theorem") states that for hypothesis H and evidence E, P(H|E) = P(E|H)P(H)/P(E). This is [the fundamental equation](http://yudkowsky.net/rational/bayes) [that governs](http://yudkowsky.net/rational/technical/) [all thought](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QrhAeKBkm2WsdRYao/searching-for-bayes-structure). When you think you see a tree, that's really just your brain computing a high value for the probability of your sensory experiences given the hypothesis that there is a tree multiplied by the prior probability that there is a tree, as a fraction of all the possible worlds that could be generating your sensory experiences.
+Bayes's theorem (just [a few inferential steps away from the definition of conditional probability itself](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem#Derivation), barely worthy of being called a "theorem") states that for hypothesis H and evidence E, P(H|E) = P(E|H)P(H)/P(E). This is [the fundamental equation](https://www.readthesequences.com/An-Intuitive-Explanation-Of-Bayess-Theorem) [that governs](https://www.readthesequences.com/A-Technical-Explanation-Of-Technical-Explanation) [all thought](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QrhAeKBkm2WsdRYao/searching-for-bayes-structure). When you think you see a tree, that's really just your brain computing a high value for the probability of your sensory experiences given the hypothesis that there is a tree multiplied by the prior probability that there is a tree, as a fraction of all the possible worlds that could be generating your sensory experiences.
What goes for seeing trees, goes the same for "treating individuals as individuals": the _process_ of getting to know someone as an individual, involves exploiting the statistical relationships between what you observe, and what you're trying to learn about. If you see someone wearing an Emacs tee-shirt, you're going to assume that they _probably_ use Emacs, and asking them about their [dot-emacs file](https://www.gnu.org/software/emacs/manual/html_node/emacs/Init-File.html) is going to seem like a better casual conversation-starter compared to the base rate of people wearing non-Emacs shirts. Not _with certainty_—maybe they just found the shirt in a thrift store and thought it looked cool—but the shirt _shifts the probabilities_ implied by your decisionmaking.
Of course, statistical discrimination on demographic features is only epistemically justified to exactly the extent that it helps _get the right answer_. Renormalized-egalitarians can still be unhappy about the monstrous tragedies where I have moral property P but I _can't prove it to you_, so you instead guess _incorrectly_ that I don't just because other people who look like me mostly don't, and you don't have any better information to go on. Nelson _et al._ also found that when the people in the photographs were pictured sitting down, then judgements of height depended much more on sex than when the photo-subjects were standing. This also makes Bayesian sense:
+["more likelihood ratios is a _different_ moral than "don't descriminate"]
+
[the other thing the ball-hiders can't get right: actually, IQ is morally valuable]
Apropos of absolutely nothing—and would I lie to you about that?!—I've been thinking a lot lately about Hrunkner Unnerby, one of the characters in the ["B"](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/PlotThreads) [story](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/TwoLinesNoWaiting) of Vernor Vinge's _A Deepness in the Sky_.
-Our protagonists, Sherkaner Underhill (mad scientist extraordinaire), Gen. Victory Smith (military prodigy, and Underhill's wife), and Sgt. Hrunkner Unnerby (an engineer, and Underhill and Smith's friend and comrade from the Great War) are spider-like nonhuman aliens native to a planet whose star mysteriously "turns off" for [TODO] years out of every [TODO].
+Our protagonists are spider-like nonhuman aliens native to a planet whose star mysteriously "turns off" for [TODO] years out of every [TODO].
+
+
+Sherkaner Underhill (mad scientist extraordinaire), Gen. Victory Smith (military prodigy, and Underhill's wife), and Sgt. Hrunkner Unnerby (an engineer, and Underhill and Smith's friend and comrade from the Great War)
rapidly-industrializing civilization is entering its Information Age—
-Title: Sexual Dimorphism, Yudkowsky's Sequences, and Me
+Title: Sexual Dimorphism in Yudkowsky's Sequences, in Relation to My Gender Problems
Date: 2021-01-01
Category: other
Tags: autogynephilia, epistemic horror, my robot cult, personal, sex differences
* need to talk about individual differences being non-threatening
* need to define "cognitive repetioires" earlier because I mention it later
* work what I mean by "renormalize" earlier because I use it later
-
+* it's actually a _selective_ blank slate (Winegard)
* work in "Can Race Be Erased" result
"I realize I am writing in an LGBT era when some argue that 63 distinct genders have been identified," Murray writes at the beginning of Appendix 2. But this is failing to pass the [Ideological Turing Test](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2011/06/the_ideological.html).
Theorem: when you strike at a king, you must kill him. (Credit assignment: Ralph Waldo Emerson.)
My restatement (yours may be different, but still): when you strike at the God-Empress—well, striking at the God-Empress wouldn't work. But when you strike at one of the God-Empress's minions, you have to either kill him or provide sufficiently strong evidence that you could kill him if you wanted.
+
+give sex denialists an inch, and they'll redefine the inch to be a mile
+
+"I had never settled on a form": https://i.redd.it/ygbkj3ock6x31.jpg General factor of ETLE?
+
X Teleology
_ Book Review: Charles Murray's Human Diversity
_ Hrunkner Unnerby and the Shallowness of Progress
-
_ Peering Through Reverent Fingers
-_ Reply to Ozymandias on Lesbians and on Single-Sex Spaces
-_ Elision _vs_. Choice (working title)
_ The Feeling Is Mutual
+
_ Travis's Trilemma: Creepy, Crazy, or Protected-Class (working title)
+_ Elision _vs_. Choice (working title)
+_ Reply to Ozymandias on Lesbians and on Single-Sex Spaces
_ Friendship Practices of the Secret-Sharing Plain Speech Valley Squirrels
_ Phenotypic Identity and Memetic Capture
_ Sexual Dimorphism, Yudkowsky's Sequences, and Me
LW/aAL—
-_ Intrumental Categories, Wireheading, and War (LW)
_ Algorithmic Intent: A Hansonian Generalized Anti-Zombie Principle (LW)
+_ Zoom vs. EMH (LW)
+_ Intrumental Categories, Wireheading, and War (LW)
_ Contra Scott Alexander on Mental Illness; Or, Oh God, Please Don't (aAL/LW)
_ Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization—marginally neglected truths are more
_ Selective Reporting and Clustering
-
+_ Social Construction is an Embedded Agency Problem
it's important to have language for psychology because you can't point to pictures
+master Isso and Recent comments
rework footnotes plugin!? (Markdown footnote format is better than [ref][/ref] tags)
+store Reddit icon in theme directory
self-host a copy of Source Sans Pro (I'm annoyed that my devserver preview fonts are ugly when I've killed my network connection so I can focus for once)
-comments?! https://github.com/posativ/isso/
bigger click-target pagination links
verify my domain with Search Console so that I can see search keywords
restrict "fiction" to "longform" (not dialogues) (I made the opposite call at some point, and I think I want to reverse it)
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / commitdiff