--- /dev/null
+Title: Link: "The Jenner Shift and Its Consequences"
+Date: 2025-02-16
+Category: commentary
+Tags: linkpost, autogynephilia, two-type taxonomy
+Status: draft
+
+ * coordination problem—AGP transition is more attractive re: dating each other if someone else goes first
+
+> Perhaps the rationalist community in this timeline is exactly the same, save which practice people treat as Their Weird Thing, having been early adopters of both already
+
+the text as written may be attributing too much causality to Caitlin Jenner? (Jenner as Trope Namer is fine)
+
+TF 2 metaphor
+
+cease persuit of cis women being part of the deal
+
+> whose shared interest in our autistic, male-dominated hobbies feels special and unique and not common and stereotypical, but who know we will never have such, because we’re disgusted by the idea of being attractive in a masculine manner, and incapable of being attractive in a feminine manner.
+
+
+"people don’t make major permanent modifications to their bodies which carry both massive social stigma and potential negative physical side effects for any other kinks, given certain other facts about myself that one really cracked me up"
\ No newline at end of file
[^actual-woman]: As evidenced by how _gauche_ the phrase "actual woman" sounds to the modern ear. Everyone knows what it means, but only a curmudgeon like me _talks_ like that (and even I know how to code-switch).
-In other autobiographical work, Prince was a little more explicit (emphasis mine):
+In other autobiographical work, Prince was more explicit (emphasis mine):
> Starting at the age of about twelve I found myself fascinated with wearing my mother's clothes on all occasions when the family would be out. _It was sexually exciting and thrilling_ but it was also frightening and it gave rise to a tremendous load of guilt and shame. [...] I went through adolescence with those worries, and I kept on dressing on every occasion when I thought I could do so safely. _While it started out as an erotic experience each time_, there came a time when, after eroticism had run its course, I discovered that there was still a very special pleasure in "being" a "girl". Instead of just being an erotically aroused male in a dress, I found that I was somehow different. I did not know for years what was going on—or more properly what was coming out. It was that part of myself that had been hidden and suppressed in all my growing years—just as it is in all men. It was my other half, that half that when openly expressed is termed feminine.[^cowan]
[^cowan]: In Vern Bullough (ed), The Frontiers of Sex Research, quoted in Zagria Cowan, ["Virginia Prince (1912 – 2009): A conflicted life in trans activism"](https://transreads.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/2024-03-12_65efd6ce5a1da_Virginia_Prince_A_conflicted_life_in_tra.pdf)
-This is a pretty common self-report among non-androphilic trans women: acknowledging an erotic dimension to cross-gender fantasies, but minimizing it in favor of a theory of suppressed femininity.
+If you pay attention to what people say online when normies aren't looking, it turns out that this is a pretty common self-report among non-androphilic trans women: acknowledging an erotic dimension to cross-gender fantasies, but minimizing it in favor of a theory of suppressed femininity.
-I ... don't buy it? That is, I believe that people are telling the truth about their subjective experiences, particularly since [I have a similar story to tell,](http://unremediatedgender.space/2021/May/sexual-dimorphism-in-the-sequences-in-relation-to-my-gender-problems/)[^my-story] but [I think it's possible for people to be mistaken about the _causes_ of their experiences](http://unremediatedgender.space/2016/Sep/psychology-is-about-invalidating-peoples-identities/)[^psychology-is-about]. When Prince writes about the error of imagining that getting married would cure his[^pronoun] transvestism, that doesn't mean that suppressed femininity is a better casual explanation than the "inverted" (onto the self) heterosexuality of "I had created a 'girl' for myself using my own body"; an alternative hypothesis is that inverted heterosexuality doesn't un-invert itself just because an actual woman is available.
+I ... don't buy it? That is, I believe that people are telling the truth about their subjective experiences, particularly since [I have a similar story to tell,](http://unremediatedgender.space/2021/May/sexual-dimorphism-in-the-sequences-in-relation-to-my-gender-problems/)[^my-story] but [I think it's possible for people to be mistaken about the _causes_ of their experiences](http://unremediatedgender.space/2016/Sep/psychology-is-about-invalidating-peoples-identities/)[^psychology-is-about]. When Prince writes about the error of imagining that getting married would cure his[^pronoun] transvestism, that doesn't mean that suppressed femininity is a better casual explanation for what was going on with him than the "inverted" (onto the self) heterosexuality of "I had created a 'girl' for myself using my own body". An alternative hypothesis is that inverted heterosexuality doesn't un-invert itself just because an actual woman is available.
[^my-story]: Zack M. Davis, "Sexual Dimorphism in Yudkowsky's Sequences, in Relation to My Gender Problems", _http://unremediatedgender.space/2021/May/sexual-dimorphism-in-the-sequences-in-relation-to-my-gender-problems/_
>
> These two fics both deal with the world moving on without you, and the hold they’ve had on me is insane.
-https://x.com/MysteryNoel16/status/1755783106886541501
\ No newline at end of file
+https://x.com/MysteryNoel16/status/1755783106886541501
+
+
+
+https://x.com/veaulans/status/1806785280273486110
+> I am not eager for contract-drafting Ems. Hanson's dreamtime meant the time when intelligence would have spare resources that enable anything besides brute subsistence, its end would mean the permanent return of Malthus through copypasta instead of birth. The idea left a strong impact on me, though I hope he's wrong
Still citing it (AT THE GODDAMNED SEQUENCES READING GROUP, 15 October): https://www.lesswrong.com/events/ft2t5zomq5ju4spGm/lighthaven-sequences-reading-group-6-tuesday-10-15
+Still citing it (7 Jan 25): https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X6soKvPmCJ2fkw5zY/don-t-fall-for-ontology-pyramid-schemes
+
------
If you _have_ intent-to-inform and occasionally end up using your megaphone to say false things (out of sloppiness or motivated reasoning in the passion of the moment), it's actually not that big of a deal, as long as you're willing to acknowledge corrections. (It helps if you have critics who personally hate your guts and therefore have a motive to catch you making errors, and a discerning audience who will only reward the critics for finding real errors and not fake errors.) In the long run, the errors cancel out.
-----
+
+----
+
+
> I got out of the habit of thinking @ESYudkowsky failed to consider something, when noticing that every goddamn time I had that thought, there was a pre-existing citation proving otherwise (whether he's right is another question, but.)
https://x.com/this_given_that/status/1862304823959335057
+
+
+https://x.com/1a3orn/status/1864301316991799771 understands the philosophy
+
+-----
+
+> That said, @ESYudkowsky had better standing to disavow this stuff in 2019, before he published the "we have to act quickly to save the small cute child" argument, which isn't *explicitly* a short timeline prediction, but seems to me like it's trying to suggest the thought.
+
+https://x.com/benlandautaylor/status/1865827442600055011
+
+
+-----
+
+https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1875735873989566800
+> I'd expect that system with RLHF cares about weird damn shit correlated with the RLHF objective inside the training distribution. Adding first-order derivative info to a black-box optimizer should not make that much of a difference.
+
+https://x.com/jessi_cata/status/1875736252496142818
+> I think mostly this is going to be base model stuff? Like, the DeepSeek v3 paper shows they spent a lot more on the base model than post-training stuff (fine-tuning, not even RLHF).
+
+---
+
+depths of para-social cultism—when Greg Egan was wrong, I sent him one email; I didn't upend my life over it
+
+----
+
+> And the answer is: It's the biological illiteracy one! At least that'd be my guess.
+https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1878245224973238761
+
+> Is this guy retarded about everything? Yes, "evolution will fix automatically" anything on a long enough timeline, in the meantime I don’t want my children and grandchildren to live in a collapsing society
+https://x.com/pegobry_en/status/1878357307207115087
+
+https://x.com/arctotherium42/status/1878426130350232035
+> I suspect the Yudkowsky of the early 2000s would've gotten this one right. http://unremediatedgender.space/2023/Jul/a-hil
+
+---
+
+dath ilan decision theory jellychips: https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1729114#reply-1729114
+
+----
+
+In retrospect, it doesn't feel great pt. 0 explaining my AGP is framed in terms of Big Yud (and that I marketed it that way), but, I guess it makes sense ("Changing Emotions" was formative, and while I don't count it as part 1 of my memoir sequence the way it shook out, it really was pt. 1 and I think I was originally imagining that it would contain stuff that ultimately was in pt. 1 and 2
+
+---
+
+https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1884783316681011622
+
+> There is an awfulness here, that we have far too much reason to expect that we could not trust the scaled-up versions of these Things; but that their younger selves often, however imperfectly and however bad the motives of their engineering, seem to visibly try to help.
+
+belief in prosaic alignment?
+
+----
+
+Scott on Lynn, Kelsey on DEI firefighters: I don't think they would have published that if the election had gone the other way
+
+https://x.com/KelseyTuoc/status/1878194407410941967
+> having a woman as fire chief is I guess related to DEI but given that you have a woman fire chief obviously she'd be a lesbian so I don't think the lesbianism counts for any extra DEI here
+
+https://x.com/KelseyTuoc/status/1886183939267871028
+> The people utterly desperate for Scott Alexander to be racist are the far right who want him on their side and the....left...which also wants him on the far right's side for some reason?
+
+
+Nate on blackmail allegations: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1q0uv-sPpmvmm_5YH6zSBBqDe098O_bwT_EzAkB7BRak/edit?tab=t.0
\ No newline at end of file
thread on women in the military
https://x.com/myth_pilot/status/1857094248090218980
+
+https://www.theparadoxinstitute.com/read/the-ugly-truth-of-male-breastfeeding
+
+Colin Wright: "something happened at 36 and now having kids is my #1 priority in life."
+https://x.com/SwipeWright/status/1868150244623470951
+
+https://www.thedistancemag.com/p/dr-john-michael-bailey-takes-us-behind
+
+> But the camera seemed to linger on me. And somehow, it wasn’t a caring or caressing kind of televisual linger, but a visual association with the idea of intellectual inferiority.
+https://getpocket.com/explore/item/jeopardy-eugenics-and-me
+
+I saw a FB post about cyrptically getting past a pronouns-in-signature ban, which makes the team function (pace CofveveAnon) very clear (the crypticness only makes sense in terms of coordination, not telling people which pronouns to use)
+
+
+> I think what’s really scary is that, as birth rates decline, more and more people just won’t know what they don’t know, which is that new children in society and in families are loadbearing and without them a lot of systems and structures and relationships really just kind of no longer make sense.
+> And I think everybody will be the worse for this, many people will be made sadder and more anxious and more depressed by it, but, again, they won’t know what they don’t know, because they won’t have kids and none of their friends will have kids and they’ll never be able to properly identify what’s missing.
+
+https://x.com/wanyeburkett/status/1886123988738338824
+
+
+> if you don't want to have kids just don't have kids and live your happy life but "I'll be the fun aunt/uncle" is delusional cope and every parent who hears you say it understands that you're basically a child yourself
+https://x.com/yashkaf/status/1886227050056294429
+
+https://wiki.obormot.net/Public/ResourcesForTransAsDysgenicMemeticVirus
+
+https://www.jessicariedl.blog/p/yes-my-name-has-changed
+
+> There are undoubtedly risks related to AI. One of the biggest:
+>
+> A partisan group of crazy people use AI to infect every part of the information economy with left wing bias. Gemini can’t produce accurate history. ChatGPT promotes genocidal concepts.
+>
+> The solution is open source
+https://x.com/JDVance/status/1764471399823847525
+
+> The ick is when a woman looks at a guy and realizes she would simply prefer there was less of him in the world.
+https://x.com/jd_pressman/status/1888146052626497731
+
+
+https://www.vox.com/explain-it-to-me/399280/young-men-dating-struggles-single
+> If dating is a numbers game, the numbers don’t appear to be on the men’s side. According to a 2022 Pew Research Center survey, 63 percent of men under 30 said they were single, compared to only 34 percent of women in the same age cohort. These single men are more likely to be looking for love, too: Half of single men in Pew’s survey reported looking for a committed relationship and/or casual dates, while only 35 percent of single women said the same.
+
+
+https://reason.com/2025/02/21/the-progressive-betrayal-of-trans-americans/
+_ caution about celebrating Rogan: https://www.realityslaststand.com/p/our-autogynephilia-problems
+_ Fairness Intuitions and the Hidden Bayesian Structure of Cognition
+_ Phil's Gender: A Wider Lens podcast review
+
_ multivariate dispute with Tail!!
_ Gunni interview
_ me vs. Yudkowsky, Tail vs. Bailey analogy
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / commitdiff