From: Zack M. Davis Date: Tue, 27 May 2025 22:50:06 +0000 (-0700) Subject: check in X-Git-Url: http://unremediatedgender.space/source?a=commitdiff_plain;h=12f0713bf3cfbfe170c563bb0f9af20880a9f6d5;p=Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git check in --- diff --git a/content/drafts/book-review-facing-reality.md b/content/drafts/book-review-facing-reality.md index ced91ff..1f53b82 100644 --- a/content/drafts/book-review-facing-reality.md +++ b/content/drafts/book-review-facing-reality.md @@ -298,3 +298,7 @@ https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/inconvenient-truths/?utm_source=pocket_mylist https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/10292/predicting-polygenic-selection-for-iq/ https://www.unz.com/isteve/justice-sotomayor-intelligent-well-informed-reasonable-minded-people-must-be-banned-from-capital-case-juries/ + +https://www.josephbronski.com/p/are-we-smart-enough-for-eugenics + +https://www.josephbronski.com/p/estimating-mutational-pressure-on diff --git a/notes/critical_acclaim.md b/notes/critical_acclaim.md index 63905b7..f57ef3c 100644 --- a/notes/critical_acclaim.md +++ b/notes/critical_acclaim.md @@ -265,10 +265,20 @@ https://x.com/veaulans/status/1806785280273486110 https://x.com/MysteryNoel16/status/1755783106886541501 - - https://x.com/veaulans/status/1806785280273486110 > I am not eager for contract-drafting Ems. Hanson's dreamtime meant the time when intelligence would have spare resources that enable anything besides brute subsistence, its end would mean the permanent return of Malthus through copypasta instead of birth. The idea left a strong impact on me, though I hope he's wrong AGP explainer links me https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php/topic,13215.msg638164.html#msg638164 + +2025 /r/slatestarcodex link (removed for Culture War), but someone is still reading/sharing +https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1j6wv11/the_categories_were_made_for_man_to_make/ + +Zinnia Jones actually dug through my commit messages +https://x.com/ZJemptv/status/1915835863059337323 +https://bsky.app/profile/zinniajones.com/post/3ln7qylht7s2h + +> What the fuck is a '140 IQ Society'? YIKES +https://bsky.app/profile/zinniajones.com/post/3lmpqhj3wqc2c + +https://www.tumblr.com/liskantope/778735685191516160/i-dont-think-a-person-whose-conclusion-about diff --git a/notes/memoir-sections.md b/notes/memoir-sections.md index 5506440..210720e 100644 --- a/notes/memoir-sections.md +++ b/notes/memoir-sections.md @@ -3027,6 +3027,8 @@ https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1848752983028433148 At first I said to myself that I'm not taking the bait because I don't think my point compresses into Twitter format; I have other things to do ... but I decided to take the bait on 24 October: https://x.com/zackmdavis/status/1849697535331336469 https://x.com/eigenrobot/status/1850313045039358262 +> strategically manipulating consensus ontologies and corrupting empirical models has, beyond its advantage in favorably reshaping political terrain, the drawback of worsening everyone's comprehension of reality, including everyone in the immediately advantaged group + --- @@ -3082,6 +3084,7 @@ which, again, could be totally wrong, but at least it's not _&c._ ----- +the time at Less Online 2024 when we were talking about the superbabies talk, and Kelsey mentioned it would be useful for Cimorene making gametes without having to go through male puberty, and Eliezer and I exchanged a look ---- @@ -3157,3 +3160,134 @@ being snippy towards "EAs" even though the described "I think we have had some e 6 March: Yudkowksy describes "AGI" as a dumb term while calling out goalpost-moving, which I think is itself history rewriting + + +> honestly I mostly expect his attitude about the baby to depend on the sex. he's got two sisters and is rooting really hard for a boy even though we've explained we have no power over this. 8yo explained to me the other day that it wouldn't be fair to have another girl +https://x.com/KelseyTuoc/status/1910194663086326049 + + +Kelsey's reply got a quick retweet from Big Yud +https://x.com/KelseyTuoc/status/1911127559959695411 +> I personally wish I had been more aggressive about picking fights that might have gotten me fired/would have made my life a lot worse, but I would still have been selective about which fights I picked. + +Another note for the Kelsey podcast: +> treating people as people, not racial category members +> +> that every person deserves to be evaluated as an individual and not as a member of a group. +Does she think that way internally, or is it a conscious simplification for Twitter? I'm OK with the simplification for people who don't know math + +I don't think this is a super-abstract difficult idea (Hunter's version has 256 Likes) +> There is no such thing as treating someone as an individual. You are always treating them as a member of a group, you just refine the group over time. “People who scored 1500+ on the SAT” is a group. “People who have committed murder” is a group. Everything is statistical. +https://x.com/ArtemisConsort/status/1910902597760029037 + +DSL on KP: https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php/topic,4106.0.html + + +There was another Yudkowsky Twitter post about how trans stuff works on dath ilan, can't immediately find it now + + +https://x.com/KelseyTuoc/status/1911490312306147385 +> my impression of 'hereditarian' stuff is that it's a major part of the right-wing radicalization pipeline, and I want to figure out how to fix that. I had a long post about this in my drafts which basically argues in extremely melodramatic terms that the Libs Won't TelL You - +> that the people of Massachusetts are intrinsically better and worthier and smarter than the people of New Mexico, look at all the proof from test scores and graduation rates and representation in various contexts. The thing I was vaguely hoping was that seeing lots of other claims for which there is a comparable degree of 'proof', but which are clearly both absurd and destructive would be a good way to lift some people out of the glue trap of obsessing over this stuff as a secret truth. +> But it'd be a major project and also I'm slightly worried about just convincing a bunch of edgelords to be New Mexico haters. + +https://www.mississippifirst.org/blog/contextualizing-mississippis-2024-naep-scores/ + +https://x.com/KelseyTuoc/status/1915986507665445371 +> Do you think that being raised religious shatters the integrity of the minds of millions of children? This seems incredibly hysterical and melodramatic to me +> The overwhelming majority of everybody who has ever existed was told as a child that their membership in the human community depended on a bunch of rejections of reality. (This is the case even if you think one religion is in fact true.) + +> Apparently there's an other-side, and I feel obliged to post it too. +> +> I'm not a fan of acclimating right-leaning citizens to denialism using this sucession of gradual disputable cases. So it's very important to get every nuance correct, even if you dislike "nuances". +.... +"The 9th virtue is perfectionism / The 10th virtue is precision" was a lot more appealing + +Hanania retweet relapse—29 April: I'm not proud of the relapse of impotent hatred. It's good to take actions to call out dishonesty, but I should be calm and methodical and confident about it. Emotion is OK insofar as it motivates me to take action, but the action should be methodological + + +Section Title: Groundhog Day (reference Jessica's Tweet) + +https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/groups + +RadGeek covering Scott and Kelsey—total "rationalist" victory + +Cori Cohn on yet another Yudkowsky retweet +https://x.com/heterodorx/status/1921589145555587166 + + +----- + +another tidbit for Kelsey interview— + +like it's _really interesting_ to contrast your self-report ("No I would not have [made a unwoke-coded joke if Harris had won the election]") with Scott's claim that + +> The "vibe shift" against wokeness is as far as I can tell a genuine autochthonous liberal victory that predates anything Trump II was doing +https://x.com/slatestarcodex/status/1921765932130848901 + +Scott is just lying here, right? + +https://www.richardhanania.com/p/why-gender-ideology-cant-survive + +https://x.com/ohabryka/status/1918185949126902259 +> I think EA has many flaws but “helping elect Trump” was not one of them. My guess is the EA community had a reasonably large-ish effect on the Bay Area being less right leaning than it could have been, and very strong majority belief within the community was/is anti Trump. + + +other anti-cultism interventions: message Towards Keeperhood, Laithion + +provide short itemized grievances to lc + +respond to comment about pay-for-counterargumetns scheme pointing out his history of dishonesty + +What's even in it for him? + + +you really wonder how the history of the site would have been different if [The Correct Contrarian Cluster](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9KvefburLia7ptEE3/the-correct-contrarian-cluster) has included "Racial difference in intelligence: Yes" + +mention that during my first round of fighting with the Eliezerfic server, I was in a hotel room to try on my bodysuit; that's a great detail + + +I should edit pt. 2 with a footnote to include Nate's argument that they didn't get extorted by Louie + + +In person at LessOnline 2, tell him that I'm not expecting him to misgender anyone; I'm asking him to not misrepresent the reasons someone else might have for misgendering + + +Why are you still mischaracterizing what gender identity skeptics believe as recently as October 2024 and May 2025? I don't even understand how this benefits you. If you're going to be this shamelessly dishonest about something so trivially checkable, then no one should trust you to sell them a used car. + +Are you going to clarify this in public, or am I going to spend the rest of our lives doing it? + +I know you know this because I learned it from you + +I made a major tactical mistake by tagging in Michael ... or maybe not (if he's so self-servingly delusional to attribute my rage to Michael in this timeline, then if I had always been alone, he'd just write me off as a lone crackpot) + +When I criticize you, I specifically quote your writing; when you criticize me, you just make shit up + +ask Kelsey to clarify what she meant about soul-searching about doing more to fight illiberalism, then clarify without namedropping Yudkowsky that ignoring counterarguments is worse than consistently "No comment"-ing + + +in the most recent Eliezerfic discussion, when people pointed out that I was mischaracterizing my interlocutors' beliefs, I credited the people who pointed that out: "I think I see what I was doing wrong [...] regret the misallocated wordcount. " + + +I think is the line: "Sir, since we happen to be in the same room, I should like to mention that I continue to be dsigusted by your shameless intellectual dishonesty. Would you like to try talking about it again, or should I just continue to publically denounce you at the top of my lungs for the rest of our lives?" + +(I don't think that's a decision-theoretic threat because that's what I was going to do anyway) + +memory for pt. 5: at the 2022 Smallpox Eradication Day party, people including EY were playing with DALL-E and tried to type in an "Eliezer Yudkowsky prompting DALL-E" prompt (or something like that; I think the spirit was being meta rather than being hero-worshippy), and someone (or he) said, "It doesn't know who he is" or "who I am" (don't remember)—that was me trying to be normal rather than ragey + + +life can be so much better and so much dumber than you imagined starting out + +Turkish PhD student— Rumeysa Ozturk +https://x.com/KelseyTuoc/status/1904990518330974452 + + +I know you know this because I learned it from you, and if you still gave a shit about human rationality and intellectual honesty, you would want Richard Hanania to know it, too. + +And if you don't give a shit about intellectual honesty because we're all about to die, then I think that's shortsighed, because when people notice, they have no reason to believe your doomsday warnings + +He previously said it's not a crime to stay silent and not make public confusions worse, but retweeting Hanania is making it worse + +Milder: "By the way, since we happen to be in the same room, I have some more denunciations of you for intellectual dishonesty that I have not published yet. Do you want to try talking about it again, or should I just continue publicly denoucing you?" + +January 2025 gendertropes in dath ilan: https://x.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1884735897096384919 diff --git a/notes/notes.txt b/notes/notes.txt index 48cf90d..d425548 100644 --- a/notes/notes.txt +++ b/notes/notes.txt @@ -3469,6 +3469,8 @@ Weirdly selective gender socialization: when Cimorene does super boy-typical thi Tempted to say, "(missed opportunity to use properly blinded methodology: you could have done the Cartesian product of [4/8] [boy/girl] searches and shown the children all four result-sets without telling them the search queries)" +don't have hard textual evidence for this one, but it would have been late 2024 when I talked to Mike Blume about how Cimorene was recently spontaneously telling people she's a biological boy + millenial marriage: https://x.com/TopoPino3/status/1831402029857828873 https://x.com/BriannaWu/status/1831687141505802411 @@ -3566,3 +3568,111 @@ hope re: my marriagability? https://x.com/sashachapin/status/1894163584340693490 https://x.com/aretae/status/1896303713394041188 > The best women in my classes reliably do exactly what I said perfectly. The best men in my classes reliably ignore my instructions and do something better than what I asked for. + +https://www.orthodoxroad.com/impossible-dreams-a-trans-story/ + +https://danmackinlay.name/contact + +https://www.sebjenseb.net/p/sex-differences-in-intelligence + +https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/08/books/review/stag-dance-torrey-peters.html + +"just have prediction markets on who's most likely to masturbate in a bathroom" +https://x.com/TrueMattEdwards/status/1899921052731662355 + + +> Biological sex erased from official data on health, crime and education +https://www.thetimes.com/article/7c7de375-4919-40d3-8127-c8eaadc94671?shareToken=e90ccec371c73a3cbfe41d96b9d3aee8 + +https://www.reddit.com/r/BodySwapMemes/comments/1jlu2kl/does_anyone_actually_enjoy_fm_plots_they_are/ + +https://optimismmommy.substack.com/p/my-body-your-choice + +https://nicholasdecker.substack.com/p/why-your-children-shouldnt-be-your + +https://x.com/Austen/status/1906540533956137275 +> I asked my wife how often she uses an LLM. +> +> She didn’t know what that meant. +If she doesn't know what you do, what do you talk about? + +> Men's struggle is to be *valuable* +> Women's struggle is to not be *replaceable* +https://x.com/CovfefeAnon/status/1907246273389789209 + +—maybe that's an angle on Rebecca's school-hatred? + +---- + +@.neonblue have you ever tried much peer activism in the other direction? Like, instead of telling people on /r/MtF that they're delusional perverts, tell people on /r/genderotica that many real transsexuals are actually guys like them? (I bet a lot of them still don't know!) Tail can't even object to this (putative magical third type TW can't call it Blanchardian gaslighting because it's hitting _known_ AGPs with the _known_ fact that "many", not necesarily "all", non-homosexual MtF are AGP) + +An intermediate case was when someone on /r/BodySwapMemes mentioned having recently figured out they were trans. The denial rationalization hamster probably has to work harder _given the venue_ + + +https://x.com/0x49fa98/status/1907549763723259958 +> None of this should be controversial in the slightest, but the widespread denial of these plain truths leads to all manner of absurdities, most of all to the negrolatry of the PWLC, whose Holy Grail is to find an African woman who is psychologically and behaviorally and indistinguishable from an English man. To the PWCL, such a person would be god made flesh, because she is a radical vindication of his belief in the primacy of story over monkey. + + +https://x.com/wolftivy/status/1908359329834819748 +> Why does everybody whine about low fertility and eugenics and stuff but then not have any kids? I don't get it. + +https://aeon.co/essays/a-psychologist-and-biologist-debate-the-significance-of-testosterone + +https://www.reddit.com/r/asktransgender/comments/1b0vetg/is_there_a_way_to_transition_medically_mtf/ + + +Fertility preservation: is there a model for gender-dysphoric youth? +https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/endocrinology/articles/10.3389/fendo.2025.1386716/full + +https://arctotherium.substack.com/p/progress-studies-and-feminization + + +https://aella.substack.com/p/the-difficulty-in-dating-good-men + +chart on trans identification over time +https://x.com/KirkegaardEmil/status/1913922299247423703 + +https://thecritic.co.uk/did-women-in-academia-cause-wokeness/ + +https://denovo.substack.com/p/sex-development-puberty-and-transgender + +https://x.com/captgouda24/status/1916922088713048554 +> I fear for trans rights, because the issue is fundamentally one of children’s rights. Do minors have the right to choose what they do with their body? America has never shown a compunction about denying the freedom of children. And it matters, because puberty is forever. + +https://benthams.substack.com/p/why-i-think-trans-women-are-women + +https://x.com/Scientific_Bird/status/1918084227750609039 + +https://www.reddit.com/r/BodySwapMemes/comments/1kclj0e/i_have_to_tell_you_something_strange_i_actually/ + +Hanania REAL ID deception: https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1918393017788186943 +He's obviously doing a bit: https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1925957570868449392 + +Men not wanting intellectual wives being specifically a lower-class thing is a good example of what Tail is complaining about, about observations in a distribution not generalizing to the true structure +https://x.com/autumnpard/status/1918466673188761939 + + +> "A couple months ago I realized I was a trans woman" +https://www.reddit.com/r/TheDigitalCircus/comments/1kdzyo7/why_fast_food_masquerade_is_one_of_my_favorite/ + +https://www.theojaffee.com/p/the-enlightened-centrist-manifesto?r=1jzsbf&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web +(see also Scott's comment) + +The world is so small: I was having a silly conversation with o3 about math and moral goodness and escalated to "Teichmüller" was bluffing, and one of the search references it found was https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/teichmuller.html (who likes my work and I'm in a groupchat with) + +male detransitioner's story: https://x.com/Dani_Activist/status/1920749553474482349 + +> Since redpills break 80/20 our way, of those who take more and those who spit them out—anyone to the left of us, but is dispensing redpills, is a friend +> +> But they'll break one way or the other soon anyway. So when you speak to them, it's not to *them*, but to their audience +https://x.com/zackmdavis/status/1329834529733836808 +> But if Truth only breaks 80/20 towards being more-easily-construed-to-favor-your-side, why is the goal to get people on your "side"? Wouldn't you rather just right about everything (even if that means not supporting the team 20% of the time)? + +https://usefulfictions.substack.com/p/i-used-to-be-a-high-performing-robot + +https://x.com/cr1ng3yy/status/1922861276687974445 +> I’ve been on HRT for almost 3 years and I still don’t look like a woman, strangers never see me as a woman. Never actually experienced what it’s like to be a woman. I’m always in pain every day. I wanna feel something that makes me feel good about myself and gives me purpose. + +In S1E17 of Gravity Falls, at the beginning, Wendy agrees with a dismissive comment about "girls" (showing her gender non-conformity and can make probabilistic inferences from that), and at the end she makes a comment about "guys" (showing that she's still female and can make probabilistic inferences from that) + +There's a version of this that's true, but this was lower quality than I expected/hoped: https://www.transvitae.com/biological-reality-isnt-science-its-just-nostalgia/ diff --git a/notes/post_ideas.txt b/notes/post_ideas.txt index 2b87798..f12f43e 100644 --- a/notes/post_ideas.txt +++ b/notes/post_ideas.txt @@ -1,22 +1,35 @@ +_ A Proud Wells Fargo Customer +_ Morphological Freedom +_ Still The Dump Stat (vibe shift didn't last, Hanania) +_ Gaines +_ conversation with Claude about the LLM ChangeMyView paper +_ Elision vs. Choice +_ more details on my sexuality (escorts, gen AI usage); open with awkwardness of having a sexuality blog and not wanting to talk about sex + + +https://goldengatexpress.org/111139/campus/riley-gaines-return-to-sfsu-draws-minor-protest/ + +near— +_ interlude about social influence on preference and identity development _ "Cut From the Same Cloth" sampling issue -_ Bosch linkpost _ caution about celebrating Rogan: https://www.realityslaststand.com/p/our-autogynephilia-problems +big— +_ Guess I'll Die +_ Book Review: Charles Murray's Facing Reality: Two Truths About Race in America (with coda) +_ No Match + + + +----- _ Ranma 1/2 review _ multivariate dispute with Tail!! _ Gunni interview _ me vs. Yudkowsky, Tail vs. Bailey analogy - _ minimal theory (Harry Benjamin recognized pseudo-transsexualism, which would do for my purposes) _ dialogue on "hate" ------ - -_ Guess I'll Die - -------- - _ On the Public Anti-Epistemology of dath ilan _ Standing Under the Same Sky (September–December 2022) @@ -38,8 +51,6 @@ _ Beckett Mariner Is Trans https://www.reddit.com/r/DaystromInstitute/comments/i ------- Big posts— -_ Thoughts on Being Single and Childless at 35 (working title) -_ Book Review: Charles Murray's Facing Reality: Two Truths About Race in America (with coda) -------