[Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git] / notes / post_ideas.txt

2021 significant posts—

_ Book Review: Charles Murray's Facing Reality: Two Truths About Race in America (June)
_ Blanchard's Dangerous Idea and the Plight of the Lucid Crossdreamer
_ Trans Kids on the Margin, and Harms From Misleading Training Data
_ A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning

Minor queue—
_ I Don't Do Policy
_ Student Dysphoria, and a Previous Life's War
_ Subspatial Distribution Overlap and Cancellable Stereotypes

_ Elision _vs_. Choice
_ "But I'm Not Quite Sure What That Means": Costs of Nonbinary Gender as a Social Technology
_ "Assigned at Birth" Is a Schelling Point (If You Live in an Insane Dystopia Where the Concept of Sex Is Somehow Controversial) 

More minor or Needs Development—

_ Correct Diagnosis as Common Interest: ideological detrans as a mirror of ideological trans: https://reclaimingtrans.wordpress.com/
_ "Your Politics Are Interesting" as Worst Compliment
_ I Wish You Well
_ Gaydar Jamming (L.B. and R.H.)
_ Friendship Practices of the Secret-Sharing Plain Speech Valley Squirrels
_ Hrunkner Unnerby and the Shallowness of Progress
_ Book Review: Kathleen Stock's Material Girls: Why Reality Matters for Feminism  (May)
_ Book Review: Kathryn Paige Harden's The Genetic Lottery: Why DNA Matters for Social Equality (September)

Filler links—
_ Link: Halifax Pride: https://www.halifaxpride.com/news/2021/5/28/halifax-public-library-response
_ Link: You're Kidding, Right?
_ Link: Lease Bound comic
_ Link: Quillette on Sons Becoming Daughters
_ Link: Babylon Bee "It's a Good Life" parody https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20ALZgd6_Ek

LW—
_ Feature Selection
_ Angelic Irony
_ "You'll Never Persuade Anyone"
_ Good Bad Faith
_ Cromwell's Rule Is About Physical Symmetry, Not Fairness
_ The Motte-and-Bailey Doctrine as Compression Artifact
_ The Kolmogorov Option Is Incompatible with Rationality as the Common Interest of Many Causes
_ Simulationist Headcanon for Ontologically Basic Train Show
_ "Rationalists" Don't Exist (But Rationality Does)
- And the Wisdom to Know the Difference
_ importance of getting the direction of causality right
_ Memetics vs. Discourse
_ Multi-Level Moloch; Or, Technically, the Holocaust Was a Coordination Success
_ Reasons to Go On
_ Phenotypic Identity and Memetic Capture (working title)
_ How do unwind one's "rationalist" social identity?
_ Daniel C. Dennett on Near-Term Alignment Problems

_ Honesty Is Activism

_ agents with different learning algorithms would find it hard to agree on words?

Trading Political Favors Doesn't Build True Maps, But Correcting Errors Your Yourself Made, Does

(Rationalists don't exist)
> how to be a strong rationalist
https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/4thPHxgBCvteQjLv6/against-context-free-integrity

_ A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning / Casuistry Is Unbecoming: Replies to Eliezer Yudkowsky (I don't know how to do this) 

_ E.Y. as case study on unconscious-lying and self-report ("their verbal theories contradict their own datapoints" https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10159408250519228?comment_id=10159411435619228&reply_comment_id=10159411567794228)


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zersetzung and the GPT-3 neuron about Trump: imagine a short story, where you suddenly become more villainous in the eyes of the narrative, and it's because a greater fraction of your measure is in simulations written based on an unfavorable view of your legacy (you're only aware of this because the GPT-descendant is smart enough to try to correct for it)

philosophy-of-language replies, 

Marketing channels—
_ Reddit: /r/philosophy, /r/TheMotte, /r/theschism, /r/SneerClub
_ tags: "The SF Bay Area", "Criticisms of the Rationalist Movement", "Postmortems & Retrospectives"

_ "Cis" is like "gentile"
_ The Sex/Gender Distinction Was a Mistake
_ Complicity (how do reasonable people cooperate with each other instead of dumb people in their own coalition)
_ reinterpretting all of Hannah Montana album lyrics as an AGP narrative
_ Stereotypes are weak probabilistic inferences (Agreeableness d~0.5), category-membership is strong inference, the same word/signal hits both, but stereotypes are (or should be) easy to cancel; shifting default meaning onto stereotypes in order to suit trans (while still having the word attach to something) is a bad trade
_ Taxometrics and the Fallacy of the Insufficiently Relevant, Insufficiently Multivariate Experiment
_ Beyond the Binary
_ https://www.facebook.com/duncan.sabien/posts/3936528276381860 "Natural does not always mean good." — natural does not always mean good, but at our current tech level, that's actually a really good prior
_ Novemember 2020 Political Notes; Or, Sen. Kelly Loeffler Is Mostly Living in a Simulation Now
_ Phenotypic Identity and Memetic Capture

_ I, Too, Dislike It

_ Yardstick abolition pessimism https://culturallyboundgender.wordpress.com/2018/11/13/gender-identity-isnt-a-box-its-a-yardstick/
_ reductionist rebuttal to "so you think lesbians aren't women"
_ Principles  (transhumanism, and sanity)
_ reply to https://azdoine.tumblr.com/post/173995599942/a-reply-to-unremediatedgenderspace-on-reply-to http://archive.is/JSSNi
_ reply to https://deathisbadblog.com/the-real-transphobes-are-the-ones-we-made-along-the-way/
_ Beckett Mariner Is Trans https://www.reddit.com/r/DaystromInstitute/comments/in3g92/was_mariner_a_teenager_on_the_enterprised/
_ Cynical Theories review
_ Persongen/univariate fallacy/typical set
_ reply on psych prison https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4uvgb4/?context=3
_ Irreversible Damage review
_ Jessica/wiz AGP defense
_ Trans Kids on the Margin, and Harms From Misleading Training Data prior: https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2019/07/19/how-many-trans-folk-are-there-really/ https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2017/04/16/getting-lost-in-the-crowd/
_ "More Than We Can Say": High-Dimensional Social Science and the Conjunction of Small Effect Sizes
_ Comment on "Towards decolonising computational sciences" https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.14258
_ My Identity Has a Better Brier Score Than Your Identity
_ TV Review: "The Trouble With Edward"
_ Comment on "One Size Does Not Fit All: In Support of Psychotherapy for Gender Dysphoria" https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-020-01844-2 (tag: `review (paper)`)
_ the scapegoating dynamic
_ review of "What's the Big Secret?" (acknowledges gender-role conventions which are more salient when people are wearing clothes, but then tells the real answer)
_ reply to https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2020/11/16/hermeneutical-injustice-not-gaslighting/
_ Comment on "On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots" https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/k77sxz/d_timnit_gebru_and_google_megathread/gepcliq/ https://doxa.substack.com/p/googles-colosseum
 - Amy Wax linkpost
- The Causality of Ethnic Differences in COVID-19 Outcomes Is an Open
_ follow to "Point Man": prosletyzing religion
_ Larmarckian Transmission of FtM?!

strict scrutiny

This is the same mechanism as "Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception"!!
> journalism is usually trustworthy because trustworthiness is the carrier vehicle. It's occasionally corrupt, because corruption is the payload.
https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/lje3nu/statement_on_new_york_times_article/gnfrprx/?context=3

optimized to confuse and intimidate people trying to use language to reason about the concept of biological sex, even if your conscious verbal narrative never says 'and now I will confuse and intimidate people who want to use language to reason about the concept of biological sex'!"

I should email caption bliggers and ask if they know about AGP
https://www.imagefap.com/profile/rickbennett
https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/03/swap-clinic-testimonial-i-can-work-with.html
https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/10/swap-clinic-win-win-win.html

reverse Wason selection task: https://twitter.com/ThetaGrunberg/status/1305296703088545792

I'm not usually—at least, not always—so much of a scrub as to play chess with a pigeon (which shits on the board and then struts around like it's won), or wrestle with a pig (which gets you both dirty, and the pig likes it), or dispute what the Tortise said to Achilles

(This needs to go into my "Motivations and Political Context")
Transitioning is easy if you project into the subspace spanned by "given name" and "preferred pronouns" and "frequency of wearing dresses." The problem is that it's not psychologically realistic to expect everyone else to just throw away all the other dimensions—people were using those dimensions!

(for Elision vs. Choice)
Speakers of my generation are more likely to say "person" when sex isn't relevant, whereas older works (pre-second wave feminism?) would actually say "man" (or "woman"—see how anachronistic it feels to put the female option second and in parentheses?), presumably not because human nature has changed that much, but because of shifting cultural priorities about when sex is "relevant." (Modern speakers similarly frown on mentioning race (https://agentultra.com/blog/the-black-man-stopped-me/) when it's not relevant.)

This is completely discrediting!!!
https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/11/12/book-review-the-body-keeps-the-score/
> they're not necessarily rejecting the seriousness of child abuse, only saying it’s not the kind of thing they build their categories around.

(My Identity Has a Better Brier Score)
I'm skeptical of "ace"—I think it's just an identity label that can be successfully marketed to otherwise-ordinary people in the bottom-quartile of libido, by an ideology that wants to sell people identity labels to get them to join the coalition of sexual minorities
You might reply: "But you identify as AGP, and attach emotional weight to that—isn't that just another identity label?"
but the thing about AGP is that, I actually have reason to believe it "fits" the territory of the underlying psychological variation
it's an expression of the theory that trans women (left-coded) and the subjects of that old Atlantic article about (right-coded) married crossdressers ("Conservative Men in Conservative Dresses") are the same thing
invariant under the cultural coding


_ Eugenics Is Actually Good, You Worthless Cowards
_ The One Where I Try to Be A Little More Explicit About What 'Autogynephilia' Actually Entails
_ No One Actually Wants to Change "Gender"
_ Ideology Is the General Case (working title)
_ Boundary Violations and Territory
_ three views on partisanship: "Hierarchy and Wings" "Bioleninism" "Democracy Cis and Trans"
_ Link: "AGPs! GROW A PAIR AND POLICE YOUR OWN COMMUNITY!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_qFxtJ7pxw   Karen Davis
_ Gay + Trans = Straight
_ Too Big to Fail 
_ Orc-ham's Razor
_ Walker correspondence
_ 30 Years of the Blank Slate (Cosmides-Tooby/Pinker/Murray)
_ "I Hope You're Happy, California"
_ Travis's Trilemma: Creepy, Crazy, or Protected-Class (working title)
_ Reply to Ozymandias on Lesbians and on Single-Sex Spaces
_ Answers on Great Divides: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/08/questions-for-great-divides.html
_ Film Review: Your Name
_ World of Masks https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1228093035042541569
_ glomerular filtration rate https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/gq50mo/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_may_25_2020/frvrhwg/
_ I Am Very Bad at Keeping Secrets and Am Therefore Very Reluctant to Offer Confidentiality Promises

_ starting to lose sympathy for my crazy past-self

"You're conflating sex and gender"—the problem is, Does anyone actually want to change "gender"?—they're bundled for a reason

LW/aAL—
_ You and What Army? Or, The Wisdom to Know the Difference
_ different ways of factoring a Bayes net of the same data make different predictions about interventions
_ COVID life-years (rather than deaths)
_ Signals, Deception, and the Precession of Simulacra (LW)
_ Contra Scott Alexander on Mental Illness; Or, Oh God, Please Don't (aAL/LW)
_ Comment on Wireheading /r/rational
_ Second Derivative (Paul Christiano on growth timelines)
_ Selective Reporting and Clustering
_ Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization—marginally neglected truths are more 
_ Explicit Disjunction vs. Contradictory Arguments from a Bottom Line
_ How they Pin It Down: Equal Environments Assumption Edition https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cXzTpSiCrNGzeoRAz/conjunction-controversy-or-how-they-nail-it-down
_ Social Construction is an Embedded Agency Problem

it's important to have language for psychology because you can't point to pictures

Training Data—"get used" to the new definitions, in time

"You can follow people you disagree with!" makes sense if you think of 

"gay and trans"

if pro-reality trans people are allied with more numerous anti-reality trans people, that incentivizes me to join an anti-trans coalition, when what I actually (should) want is to cherry-pick the pro-reality people

another thing keeping me from trans-IDing: trans is "marked"; choosing it would mean associating with the crazy. Normal Society (with men named Zack) has its own madnesses and crimes, but 


Vocabulary as Capital Investment

_ Challenges of Mounting an Ideological Crusade

B.F. being smart-but-dense

how taxonomy/typology emerges from Bayesian networks

_ On Being Stereotyped Badly (working title)

Angelic Irony

https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/trvFowBfiKiYi7spb/open-thread-july-2019/comment/RYhKrKAxiQxY3FcHa
> I think sometimes I talk in a way that makes me seem more politically naïve than I actually am, because I feel as if the “naïve” attitude is in some way normative? (“You really think someone would do that? Just go on the internet and tell lies?”)


The Wisdom of Nature (I like the idea of transhumanism, but in practice, biology is just too complicated) https://nickbostrom.com/evolution.pdf


_ Product Review: FaceApp

_ The Strategy of "Apartment Patty" — the outrage strategy only works if you have a coalition to back you up. Deterrent: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/05/case-social-media-mobs/612202/  Another example: https://twitter.com/jaimetoons/status/1271300265170186240

Psychiatrist's response to me is kind of case-in-point https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4valma/

you regress to your group's mean—but that depends on how you draw the category boundaries around group membership! This could be a good math post!! https://humanvarieties.org/2017/07/01/measurement-error-regression-to-the-mean-and-group-differences/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agalmatophilia "An important fantasy for some individuals is being transformed into the preferred object (such as a statue) and experiencing an associated state of immobility or paralysis."

address accusation that I conflate "passing" and biosex

-----

Positioning (don't want to prematurely alienate people you're trying to rescue)

conservatives complain about low-time preference ppl having too many kids—but from a evolutionary perspective, they're more evolutionarily fit

A Science Fiction Story Idea I'm Not Skilled Enough to Write

Names and Genders Are Not Relevantly Analogous

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agalmatophilia didn't make it into Lawrence's erotic target location paper, did it?

PR-driven plagiarism

Anne Lawrence on AGP Teen Transition
Anne Lawrence on Unapologetic Autogynephilic Transsexualism

Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization

One-Way Trolls

explain my blunder in https://twitter.com/jessi_cata/status/1188567229987577856

reply to https://surveyanon.wordpress.com/2019/10/27/the-mathematical-consequences-of-a-toy-model-of-gender-transition/

testimony on trans girl periods: http://www.onwednesdays.net/trans-girl-periods/




Reading Comprehension Is Rape Culture

Reply to David R. MacIver on Gendering

Trying to Be Explicit

Instrumental Categories, and War

(lit-search strategy: go through the del Guidice "Multivariate Misgivings" article and its citations; the Archer paper also mentioned this)

Commentary on "Blegg Mode" 

Faster Than Science (Transgender Edition)

(https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GEJzPwY8JedcNX2qz/blegg-mode)

karaoke, celebrity, cognitive load; I don't want people to do that for me

Option<String>?! https://web.archive.org/web/20160731010249/https://qntm.org/gay


_ "Lies to Cis People", a.k.a., "Lies"
_ I Mean, Yes, I Agree That Man Should Allocate Some More Categories, But


https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ZvJab25tDebB8FGE/you-have-about-five-words : well, that explains the TWAW mantra

The Parable of the Good Witch

First-Offender Models and the Unilateralist's Blessing
The Parable of the Faithful Man and the Cowardly Priest

Game Theory of "Apartment Patty"

Virtue Signaling Is Costly and Honest
 (in response to Kosoy's objection)

Servants of the Egregore (write-up of egregore theory as told by "Wilhelm")

Kolmogorov's Iron Triangle; Or, the Not-Being-a-Worthless-Coward Option (epigraph quote: Raleigh's "The Lie")—(include analogy: the fear that atheism would lead to immortality given that ppl don't have to fear Hell, wouldn't have seemed obviously absurd at the time) — honesty, ability to think, and mainstream credibility. The Kolmogorov option sacrifices a lot of honesty in exchange for mainstream credibility. This might seem like a good trade until you consider that "honesty" and "ability to think" aren't independent (because people are bad at compartmentalization and we need to talk to each other to think together).

Research Question: Complicity


Where to Segment a Conversation When There's Stuff You Won't Touch, Without Violating the Virtue of Evenness
In Praise of Cartesianism (you need to _really_ understand "A Human's Guide to Words" before you can do high-grade good-faith social constructionism)

Sex Differences and Commonsense Priors (I have parsimony intuitions that make "AGP is caused by pollution" or "AGP is normal in cis women" or "hormone receptors distributions are the same" seem not worth considering)

In the Presence of Mimickry, Extension and Intension Simplicity Trade-Off

Objectivity as a Rhetorical Strategy: probability, words, morality
Focus on the Simple Case (accurate maps can have bad effects, but that's a weird second-order analysis)
It Was a Complement!
Willie McCovington
A Human's Abridged Guide to Gender Words



in a world where we _actually had_ sex change technology, self-identity doctrine _wouldn't even occur to anyone_

Operationalization of Bad Faith: if people make reasoning errors that they wouldn't make with another topic having the same underlying structure



The Charity Convergence Trap

butterflies

the thing to deny

Laser 13

a big essay about Batesian mimickry


_ Codes of Convergence; Or, Smile More

_ "I Will Fight [...]": LGBT Patriotism and the Moral Fine-Tuning Objection

_ ℝ40


_ 

_ The View From Nowhere

game theory pain

_ reply to Ozy on https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/08/03/rapid-onset-gender-dysphoria-is-bad-science/ (when marketing in Culture War thread, maybe hat tip https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/9cir3w/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_03/e5c1h2c/ )
_ Q An Infovist's Advisory; Or, Standing Athwart History ...
_ 5150
apartment patty


✓ Interlude XVII (not all men)

can the comment on "Bit Players" actually fit on this blog (I didn't empathize with offense at fake physics, but I can take offense at maximum-entropy psychology): epigraph quote, "It's Only a Paper Moon"

Q As Well for a Sheep as a Lamb; Or, Charity, Objectivity, and ...
Demibuoy

_ Stereotypes, Models, and Cognition: Beyond Maximum-Entropy Psychology
Imperfect Trait Measurements Regress to the Mean
Q The Gender Czar's Compromise
"Love Like You"
Blindspot

Q Book Review: Nevada
Product Review: Oculus Go

All You Had to Say  https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/8xa97t/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_july_09_2018/e228vyj/



IDEAS STOCKPILE—
AGP flags
Q Time Travel Isn't Real; Or, Yes, the Only Real Trans Woman Is a Transitioned Trans Woman
_ The Neglect of Probability Fallacy; Or, You Do Not Have an Intersex Condition
Q Simple Models Plus Noise Are Better Than Pretending Not to Have a Model 
Falsifiability and What We Expect Not to See
* Mary's Room
Q The Hand I Was Dealt
"diagonalize" http://gender-decoder.katmatfield.com/ by running the research paper it was based on through it
Q Reduce Gender Identities to Gender Goals
Threnody for the Transhumanism of My Youth
of course trans genders are less natural; that's the entire fucking point
People Really Don't Know Why They Do Things
Q I Want to See You Be Brave
Passing Is Legitimacy, Legitimacy Is Passing
All Men Benefit From Patriarchy
(the story about my name)
Review of Nerve Endings: The New Trans Erotic
on the poor literary quality of TG captions
"Another Me I Haven't Met" (SacAnime cosplay review)
go back to east bay tg club night?
Product Review: Glamour Boutique's Vee-String Bladder
Q This Is Worth a Fight
"Trans Women Are Women" is a Positive-Affect Instance of the Noncentral Fallacy


FICTION QUEUE (6)—
story of Gina and Vern selected for GNC
story about women engineers and male businesspeople
story about race of humans who have a "sneaky" camoflauge form and someone with their analogue of AGP tries to deliberately lower his status to get it
fix fic for that one episode of _The Orville_