Tags: COVID-19, causality, race
Status: draft
-The ongoing pandemic which continues to disrupt—and take—lives across Society, isn't striking all segments of Society equally. In particular, [the U.S. Centers for Disease Control reports that](https://archive.is/nnWT9) black Americans are 4.7 times more likely than whites to be hospitalized, and 2.1 times as likely to die. [Sigal Samuel of _Vox_'s "Future Perfect" section writes](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/10/2/21493933/covid-19-vaccine-black-latino-priority-access):
+Well, we have COVID-19 vaccines now, but [the rollout has been vexed with difficulties](https://archive.is/2odhq). Until [the race between vaccinations and new infections](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/01/28/covid-1-28-muddling-through/) gets us to herd immunity, the pandemic will continue to disrupt—and take—lives across Society. And not all segments of Society equally: in particular, [the U.S. Centers for Disease Control reports that (as of November 2020)](https://archive.is/V23RW) black Americans are 3.7 times more likely than whites to be hospitalized, and 2.8 times as likely to die. [Sigal Samuel of _Vox_'s "Future Perfect" section writes](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/10/2/21493933/covid-19-vaccine-black-latino-priority-access):
> There's nothing about being Black, in and of itself, that makes people more biologically susceptible to Covid-19. Instead, the disproportionate impact is due to an accumulation of factors from centuries of systemic racism.
-But how does Samuel _know_ this? I agree that an accumulation of factors from centuries of systemic racism is almost certainly going to be a significant _part_ the explanation for the observed differences. But the claim that "there's _nothing_ about being Black, in and of itself" (emphasis mine) affecting susceptibility to this disease is a _much_ stronger assertion—one that I think has a substantial probability of being false, if it turns out that one of the various minor ways in which humans vary by genetic ancestry happens to be relevant to the progression of this particular disease.
+But how does Samuel _know_ this? I agree that an accumulation of factors from centuries of systemic racism is almost certainly going to be a significant _part_ the explanation for the observed differences. But the claim that "there's _nothing_ about being Black, in and of itself" (emphasis mine) affecting susceptibility to this disease is a stronger assertion—one that I think has a substantial probability of being false, if it turns out that one of the [various minor ways in which humans vary by genetic ancestry](/2020/Apr/book-review-human-diversity/#ancestries) happens to be relevant to the progression of this particular disease.
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In the case of people of African descent, I think we _do_ have a specific candidate for a biological difference affecting COVID-19 outcomes. A randomized clinical trial found that
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / blobdiff