2 _ There Should Be a Closetspace/Lease Bound Crossover Fic
3 _ Book Review: Charles Murray's Facing Reality: Two Truths About Race in America
9 2021 significant posts—
10 _ Trans Kids on the Margin, and Harms From Misleading Training Data
11 _ Blanchard's Dangerous Idea and the Plight of the Lucid Crossdreamer
12 _ Challenges to Yudkowsky's Pronoun Reform Proposal
13 _ A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning
16 _ Student Dysphoria, and a Previous Life's War
17 _ Subspatial Distribution Overlap and Cancellable Stereotypes
19 _ Elision _vs_. Choice
20 _ "But I'm Not Quite Sure What That Means": Costs of Nonbinary Gender as a Social Technology
21 _ "Assigned at Birth" Is a Schelling Point (If You Live in an Insane Dystopia Where the Concept of Sex Is Somehow Controversial)
22 _ Friendship Practices of the Secret-Sharing Plain Speech Valley Squirrels
23 _ Hrunkner Unnerby and the Shallowness of Progress
24 _ Multi-Book Review: Various Sex-Ed Books for Children
26 _ "Why the Hell It Means So Much to Me"
29 More minor or Needs Development—
30 _ Episode Review: Star Trek: Voyager S7EX "Body and Soul"
31 _ Correct Diagnosis as Common Interest: ideological detrans as a mirror of ideological trans: https://reclaimingtrans.wordpress.com/
32 _ "Your Politics Are Interesting" as Worst Compliment
34 _ Gaydar Jamming (L.B. and R.H.)
35 _ Book Review: Kathleen Stock's Material Girls: Why Reality Matters for Feminism (May)
36 _ Book Review: Kathryn Paige Harden's The Genetic Lottery: Why DNA Matters for Social Equality (September)
39 _ Link: Halifax Pride: https://www.halifaxpride.com/news/2021/5/28/halifax-public-library-response
40 _ Link: You're Kidding, Right?
41 _ Link: Lease Bound comic
42 _ Link: Quillette on Sons Becoming Daughters
43 _ Link: Babylon Bee "It's a Good Life" parody https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20ALZgd6_Ek
46 _ Blood Is Thicker Than Water
47 _ Generic Consequentialists Are Liars
49 _ Connotation as Optimization
50 _ There's No Such Thing as Unmotivated Reasoning
51 _ "You'll Never Persuade Anyone"
52 _ Longtermism + Hinge of History = Shorttermism (not my original idea, but don't remember whose blog I read this on, so I'll write my own version)
53 _ Point of No Return is Relative to a Class of Interventions
54 _ Simulationist Headcanon for Ontologically Basic Train Show
58 _ Cromwell's Rule Is About Physical Symmetry, Not Fairness
59 _ The Motte-and-Bailey Doctrine as Compression Artifact
60 _ The Kolmogorov Option Is Incompatible with Rationality as the Common Interest of Many Causes
61 _ "Rationalists" Don't Exist (But Rationality Does)
62 - And the Wisdom to Know the Difference
63 _ importance of getting the direction of causality right
64 _ Memetics vs. Discourse
65 _ Multi-Level Moloch; Or, Technically, the Holocaust Was a Coordination Success
67 _ Phenotypic Identity and Memetic Capture (working title)
68 _ How do unwind one's "rationalist" social identity?
69 _ Daniel C. Dennett on Near-Term Alignment Problems
73 _ agents with different learning algorithms would find it hard to agree on words?
75 Trading Political Favors Doesn't Build True Maps, But Correcting Errors Your Yourself Made, Does
77 (Rationalists don't exist)
78 > how to be a strong rationalist
79 https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/4thPHxgBCvteQjLv6/against-context-free-integrity
81 _ A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning / Casuistry Is Unbecoming: Replies to Eliezer Yudkowsky (I don't know how to do this)
83 _ E.Y. as case study on unconscious-lying and self-report ("their verbal theories contradict their own datapoints" https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10159408250519228?comment_id=10159411435619228&reply_comment_id=10159411567794228)
86 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zersetzung and the GPT-3 neuron about Trump: imagine a short story, where you suddenly become more villainous in the eyes of the narrative, and it's because a greater fraction of your measure is in simulations written based on an unfavorable view of your legacy (you're only aware of this because the GPT-descendant is smart enough to try to correct for it)
88 philosophy-of-language replies,
91 _ Reddit: /r/philosophy, /r/TheMotte, /r/theschism, /r/SneerClub
92 _ tags: "The SF Bay Area", "Criticisms of the Rationalist Movement", "Postmortems & Retrospectives"
94 _ "Cis" is like "gentile"
95 _ The Sex/Gender Distinction Was a Mistake
96 _ Complicity (how do reasonable people cooperate with each other instead of dumb people in their own coalition)
97 _ reinterpretting all of Hannah Montana album lyrics as an AGP narrative
98 _ Stereotypes are weak probabilistic inferences (Agreeableness d~0.5), category-membership is strong inference, the same word/signal hits both, but stereotypes are (or should be) easy to cancel; shifting default meaning onto stereotypes in order to suit trans (while still having the word attach to something) is a bad trade
99 _ Taxometrics and the Fallacy of the Insufficiently Relevant, Insufficiently Multivariate Experiment
101 _ https://www.facebook.com/duncan.sabien/posts/3936528276381860 "Natural does not always mean good." — natural does not always mean good, but at our current tech level, that's actually a really good prior
102 _ Novemember 2020 Political Notes; Or, Sen. Kelly Loeffler Is Mostly Living in a Simulation Now
103 _ Phenotypic Identity and Memetic Capture
107 _ Yardstick abolition pessimism https://culturallyboundgender.wordpress.com/2018/11/13/gender-identity-isnt-a-box-its-a-yardstick/
108 _ reductionist rebuttal to "so you think lesbians aren't women"
109 _ Principles (transhumanism, and sanity)
110 _ reply to https://azdoine.tumblr.com/post/173995599942/a-reply-to-unremediatedgenderspace-on-reply-to http://archive.is/JSSNi
111 _ reply to https://deathisbadblog.com/the-real-transphobes-are-the-ones-we-made-along-the-way/
112 _ Beckett Mariner Is Trans https://www.reddit.com/r/DaystromInstitute/comments/in3g92/was_mariner_a_teenager_on_the_enterprised/
113 _ Cynical Theories review
114 _ Persongen/univariate fallacy/typical set
115 _ reply on psych prison https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4uvgb4/?context=3
116 _ Irreversible Damage review
117 _ Jessica/wiz AGP defense
118 _ Trans Kids on the Margin, and Harms From Misleading Training Data prior: https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2019/07/19/how-many-trans-folk-are-there-really/ https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2017/04/16/getting-lost-in-the-crowd/
119 _ "More Than We Can Say": High-Dimensional Social Science and the Conjunction of Small Effect Sizes
120 _ Comment on "Towards decolonising computational sciences" https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.14258
121 _ My Identity Has a Better Brier Score Than Your Identity
122 _ TV Review: "The Trouble With Edward"
123 _ Comment on "One Size Does Not Fit All: In Support of Psychotherapy for Gender Dysphoria" https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-020-01844-2 (tag: `review (paper)`)
124 _ the scapegoating dynamic
125 _ review of "What's the Big Secret?" (acknowledges gender-role conventions which are more salient when people are wearing clothes, but then tells the real answer)
126 _ reply to https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2020/11/16/hermeneutical-injustice-not-gaslighting/
127 _ Comment on "On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots" https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/k77sxz/d_timnit_gebru_and_google_megathread/gepcliq/ https://doxa.substack.com/p/googles-colosseum
129 - The Causality of Ethnic Differences in COVID-19 Outcomes Is an Open
130 _ follow to "Point Man": prosletyzing religion
131 _ Larmarckian Transmission of FtM?!
135 This is the same mechanism as "Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception"!!
136 > journalism is usually trustworthy because trustworthiness is the carrier vehicle. It's occasionally corrupt, because corruption is the payload.
137 https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/lje3nu/statement_on_new_york_times_article/gnfrprx/?context=3
139 optimized to confuse and intimidate people trying to use language to reason about the concept of biological sex, even if your conscious verbal narrative never says 'and now I will confuse and intimidate people who want to use language to reason about the concept of biological sex'!"
141 I should email caption bliggers and ask if they know about AGP
142 https://www.imagefap.com/profile/rickbennett
143 https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/03/swap-clinic-testimonial-i-can-work-with.html
144 https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/10/swap-clinic-win-win-win.html
146 reverse Wason selection task: https://twitter.com/ThetaGrunberg/status/1305296703088545792
148 I'm not usually—at least, not always—so much of a scrub as to play chess with a pigeon (which shits on the board and then struts around like it's won), or wrestle with a pig (which gets you both dirty, and the pig likes it), or dispute what the Tortise said to Achilles
150 (This needs to go into my "Motivations and Political Context")
151 Transitioning is easy if you project into the subspace spanned by "given name" and "preferred pronouns" and "frequency of wearing dresses." The problem is that it's not psychologically realistic to expect everyone else to just throw away all the other dimensions—people were using those dimensions!
153 (for Elision vs. Choice)
154 Speakers of my generation are more likely to say "person" when sex isn't relevant, whereas older works (pre-second wave feminism?) would actually say "man" (or "woman"—see how anachronistic it feels to put the female option second and in parentheses?), presumably not because human nature has changed that much, but because of shifting cultural priorities about when sex is "relevant." (Modern speakers similarly frown on mentioning race (https://agentultra.com/blog/the-black-man-stopped-me/) when it's not relevant.)
156 (My Identity Has a Better Brier Score)
157 I'm skeptical of "ace"—I think it's just an identity label that can be successfully marketed to otherwise-ordinary people in the bottom-quartile of libido, by an ideology that wants to sell people identity labels to get them to join the coalition of sexual minorities
158 You might reply: "But you identify as AGP, and attach emotional weight to that—isn't that just another identity label?"
159 but the thing about AGP is that, I actually have reason to believe it "fits" the territory of the underlying psychological variation
160 it's an expression of the theory that trans women (left-coded) and the subjects of that old Atlantic article about (right-coded) married crossdressers ("Conservative Men in Conservative Dresses") are the same thing
161 invariant under the cultural coding
164 _ Eugenics Is Actually Good, You Worthless Cowards
165 _ The One Where I Try to Be A Little More Explicit About What 'Autogynephilia' Actually Entails
166 _ No One Actually Wants to Change "Gender"
167 _ Ideology Is the General Case (working title)
168 _ Boundary Violations and Territory
169 _ three views on partisanship: "Hierarchy and Wings" "Bioleninism" "Democracy Cis and Trans"
170 _ Link: "AGPs! GROW A PAIR AND POLICE YOUR OWN COMMUNITY!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_qFxtJ7pxw Karen Davis
171 _ Gay + Trans = Straight
174 _ Walker correspondence
175 _ 30 Years of the Blank Slate (Cosmides-Tooby/Pinker/Murray)
176 _ "I Hope You're Happy, California"
177 _ Travis's Trilemma: Creepy, Crazy, or Protected-Class (working title)
178 _ Reply to Ozymandias on Lesbians and on Single-Sex Spaces
179 _ Answers on Great Divides: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/08/questions-for-great-divides.html
180 _ Film Review: Your Name
181 _ World of Masks https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1228093035042541569
182 _ glomerular filtration rate https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/gq50mo/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_may_25_2020/frvrhwg/
183 _ I Am Very Bad at Keeping Secrets and Am Therefore Very Reluctant to Offer Confidentiality Promises
185 _ starting to lose sympathy for my crazy past-self
187 "You're conflating sex and gender"—the problem is, Does anyone actually want to change "gender"?—they're bundled for a reason
190 _ You and What Army? Or, The Wisdom to Know the Difference
191 _ different ways of factoring a Bayes net of the same data make different predictions about interventions
192 _ COVID life-years (rather than deaths)
193 _ Signals, Deception, and the Precession of Simulacra (LW)
194 _ Contra Scott Alexander on Mental Illness; Or, Oh God, Please Don't (aAL/LW)
195 _ Comment on Wireheading /r/rational
196 _ Second Derivative (Paul Christiano on growth timelines)
197 _ Selective Reporting and Clustering
198 _ Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization—marginally neglected truths are more
199 _ Explicit Disjunction vs. Contradictory Arguments from a Bottom Line
200 _ How they Pin It Down: Equal Environments Assumption Edition https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cXzTpSiCrNGzeoRAz/conjunction-controversy-or-how-they-nail-it-down
201 _ Social Construction is an Embedded Agency Problem
203 it's important to have language for psychology because you can't point to pictures
205 Training Data—"get used" to the new definitions, in time
207 "You can follow people you disagree with!" makes sense if you think of
211 if pro-reality trans people are allied with more numerous anti-reality trans people, that incentivizes me to join an anti-trans coalition, when what I actually (should) want is to cherry-pick the pro-reality people
213 another thing keeping me from trans-IDing: trans is "marked"; choosing it would mean associating with the crazy. Normal Society (with men named Zack) has its own madnesses and crimes, but
216 Vocabulary as Capital Investment
218 _ Challenges of Mounting an Ideological Crusade
220 B.F. being smart-but-dense
222 how taxonomy/typology emerges from Bayesian networks
224 _ On Being Stereotyped Badly (working title)
228 https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/trvFowBfiKiYi7spb/open-thread-july-2019/comment/RYhKrKAxiQxY3FcHa
229 > I think sometimes I talk in a way that makes me seem more politically naïve than I actually am, because I feel as if the “naïve” attitude is in some way normative? (“You really think someone would do that? Just go on the internet and tell lies?”)
232 The Wisdom of Nature (I like the idea of transhumanism, but in practice, biology is just too complicated) https://nickbostrom.com/evolution.pdf
235 _ Product Review: FaceApp
237 _ The Strategy of "Apartment Patty" — the outrage strategy only works if you have a coalition to back you up. Deterrent: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/05/case-social-media-mobs/612202/ Another example: https://twitter.com/jaimetoons/status/1271300265170186240
239 Psychiatrist's response to me is kind of case-in-point https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4valma/
241 you regress to your group's mean—but that depends on how you draw the category boundaries around group membership! This could be a good math post!! https://humanvarieties.org/2017/07/01/measurement-error-regression-to-the-mean-and-group-differences/
243 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agalmatophilia "An important fantasy for some individuals is being transformed into the preferred object (such as a statue) and experiencing an associated state of immobility or paralysis."
245 address accusation that I conflate "passing" and biosex
249 Positioning (don't want to prematurely alienate people you're trying to rescue)
251 conservatives complain about low-time preference ppl having too many kids—but from a evolutionary perspective, they're more evolutionarily fit
253 A Science Fiction Story Idea I'm Not Skilled Enough to Write
255 Names and Genders Are Not Relevantly Analogous
257 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agalmatophilia didn't make it into Lawrence's erotic target location paper, did it?
261 Anne Lawrence on AGP Teen Transition
262 Anne Lawrence on Unapologetic Autogynephilic Transsexualism
264 Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization
268 explain my blunder in https://twitter.com/jessi_cata/status/1188567229987577856
270 reply to https://surveyanon.wordpress.com/2019/10/27/the-mathematical-consequences-of-a-toy-model-of-gender-transition/
272 testimony on trans girl periods: http://www.onwednesdays.net/trans-girl-periods/
277 Reading Comprehension Is Rape Culture
279 Reply to David R. MacIver on Gendering
281 Trying to Be Explicit
283 Instrumental Categories, and War
285 (lit-search strategy: go through the del Guidice "Multivariate Misgivings" article and its citations; the Archer paper also mentioned this)
287 Commentary on "Blegg Mode"
289 Faster Than Science (Transgender Edition)
291 (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GEJzPwY8JedcNX2qz/blegg-mode)
293 karaoke, celebrity, cognitive load; I don't want people to do that for me
295 Option<String>?! https://web.archive.org/web/20160731010249/https://qntm.org/gay
298 _ "Lies to Cis People", a.k.a., "Lies"
299 _ I Mean, Yes, I Agree That Man Should Allocate Some More Categories, But
302 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ZvJab25tDebB8FGE/you-have-about-five-words : well, that explains the TWAW mantra
304 The Parable of the Good Witch
306 First-Offender Models and the Unilateralist's Blessing
307 The Parable of the Faithful Man and the Cowardly Priest
309 Game Theory of "Apartment Patty"
311 Virtue Signaling Is Costly and Honest
312 (in response to Kosoy's objection)
314 Servants of the Egregore (write-up of egregore theory as told by "Wilhelm")
316 Kolmogorov's Iron Triangle; Or, the Not-Being-a-Worthless-Coward Option (epigraph quote: Raleigh's "The Lie")—(include analogy: the fear that atheism would lead to immortality given that ppl don't have to fear Hell, wouldn't have seemed obviously absurd at the time) — honesty, ability to think, and mainstream credibility. The Kolmogorov option sacrifices a lot of honesty in exchange for mainstream credibility. This might seem like a good trade until you consider that "honesty" and "ability to think" aren't independent (because people are bad at compartmentalization and we need to talk to each other to think together).
318 Research Question: Complicity
321 Where to Segment a Conversation When There's Stuff You Won't Touch, Without Violating the Virtue of Evenness
322 In Praise of Cartesianism (you need to _really_ understand "A Human's Guide to Words" before you can do high-grade good-faith social constructionism)
324 Sex Differences and Commonsense Priors (I have parsimony intuitions that make "AGP is caused by pollution" or "AGP is normal in cis women" or "hormone receptors distributions are the same" seem not worth considering)
326 In the Presence of Mimickry, Extension and Intension Simplicity Trade-Off
328 Objectivity as a Rhetorical Strategy: probability, words, morality
329 Focus on the Simple Case (accurate maps can have bad effects, but that's a weird second-order analysis)
332 A Human's Abridged Guide to Gender Words
336 in a world where we _actually had_ sex change technology, self-identity doctrine _wouldn't even occur to anyone_
338 Operationalization of Bad Faith: if people make reasoning errors that they wouldn't make with another topic having the same underlying structure
342 The Charity Convergence Trap
350 a big essay about Batesian mimickry
353 _ Codes of Convergence; Or, Smile More
355 _ "I Will Fight [...]": LGBT Patriotism and the Moral Fine-Tuning Objection
362 _ The View From Nowhere
366 _ reply to Ozy on https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/08/03/rapid-onset-gender-dysphoria-is-bad-science/ (when marketing in Culture War thread, maybe hat tip https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/9cir3w/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_03/e5c1h2c/ )
367 _ Q An Infovist's Advisory; Or, Standing Athwart History ...
372 ✓ Interlude XVII (not all men)
374 can the comment on "Bit Players" actually fit on this blog (I didn't empathize with offense at fake physics, but I can take offense at maximum-entropy psychology): epigraph quote, "It's Only a Paper Moon"
376 Q As Well for a Sheep as a Lamb; Or, Charity, Objectivity, and ...
379 _ Stereotypes, Models, and Cognition: Beyond Maximum-Entropy Psychology
380 Imperfect Trait Measurements Regress to the Mean
381 Q The Gender Czar's Compromise
385 Q Book Review: Nevada
386 Product Review: Oculus Go
388 All You Had to Say https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/8xa97t/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_july_09_2018/e228vyj/
394 Q Time Travel Isn't Real; Or, Yes, the Only Real Trans Woman Is a Transitioned Trans Woman
395 _ The Neglect of Probability Fallacy; Or, You Do Not Have an Intersex Condition
396 Q Simple Models Plus Noise Are Better Than Pretending Not to Have a Model
397 Falsifiability and What We Expect Not to See
399 Q The Hand I Was Dealt
400 "diagonalize" http://gender-decoder.katmatfield.com/ by running the research paper it was based on through it
401 Q Reduce Gender Identities to Gender Goals
402 Threnody for the Transhumanism of My Youth
403 of course trans genders are less natural; that's the entire fucking point
404 People Really Don't Know Why They Do Things
405 Q I Want to See You Be Brave
406 Passing Is Legitimacy, Legitimacy Is Passing
407 All Men Benefit From Patriarchy
408 (the story about my name)
409 Review of Nerve Endings: The New Trans Erotic
410 on the poor literary quality of TG captions
411 "Another Me I Haven't Met" (SacAnime cosplay review)
412 go back to east bay tg club night?
413 Product Review: Glamour Boutique's Vee-String Bladder
414 Q This Is Worth a Fight
415 "Trans Women Are Women" is a Positive-Affect Instance of the Noncentral Fallacy
419 story of Gina and Vern selected for GNC
420 story about women engineers and male businesspeople
421 story about race of humans who have a "sneaky" camoflauge form and someone with their analogue of AGP tries to deliberately lower his status to get it
422 fix fic for that one episode of _The Orville_