1 Minor ready or almost-ready—
3 _ Friendship Practices of the Secret-Sharing Plain Speech Valley Squirrels
4 _ The Signaling Hazard Objection
6 Comment: The Dunbar reference on the definition of "personality" is actually real! (_Primate Social Systems_, Ch. 11, "Mechanics of Exploitation")
9 Urgent/needed for healing—
10 _ Reply to Scott Alexander on Autogenderphilia
11 _ Pseudonym Misgivings
12 _ Blanchard's Dangerous Idea and the Plight of the Lucid Crossdreamer
13 _ A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning
17 _ Trans Kids on the Margin, and Harms From Misleading Training Data
18 _ Book Review: Charles Murray's Facing Reality: Two Truths About Race in America
21 _ Review of AGP Erotica Automation Tools, September 2022
23 _ Subspatial Distribution Overlap and Cancellable Stereotypes
24 _ Elision _vs_. Choice
25 _ ASL Is Not a Language
26 _ Book Review: Johnny the Walrus
27 _ "But I'm Not Quite Sure What That Means"
28 _ Beckett Mariner Is Trans https://www.reddit.com/r/DaystromInstitute/comments/in3g92/was_mariner_a_teenager_on_the_enterprised/
29 _ Link: "On Transitions, Freedom of Form, [...]"
31 _ Gaussian Gender Issues
33 _ Hrunkner Unnerby and the Shallowness of Progress
34 _ reinterpretting all of Hannah Montana album lyrics as an AGP narrative
35 _ my medianworld: https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1619639#reply-1619639
37 _ Excerpt from _Redefining Realness_
38 _ "Reducing" Bias and Improving "Safety"
39 _ Unicode adopt-a-character?? (would it be wrong to adopt "♀"?)
40 _ https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WikzbCsFjpLTRQmXn/declustering-reclustering-and-filling-in-thingspace
42 _ Karnofsky's presentism
43 _ motivation for positing meta-attraction
45 _ Joint Book Review: Kathleen Stock's Material Girls and Kathryn Paige Harden's The Genetic Lottery
49 _ Model-Free Happiness
52 _ "Assigned at Birth" Is a Schelling Point (If You Live in an Insane Dystopia Where the Concept of Sex Is Somehow Controversial)
53 _ Multi-Book Review: Various Sex-Ed Books for Children
54 _ "Why the Hell It Means So Much to Me"
57 More minor or Needs Development—
58 _ Correct Diagnosis as Common Interest: ideological detrans as a mirror of ideological trans: https://reclaimingtrans.wordpress.com/
59 _ "Your Politics Are Interesting" as Worst Compliment
65 _ Link: Halifax Pride: https://www.halifaxpride.com/news/2021/5/28/halifax-public-library-response
66 _ Link: You're Kidding, Right?
67 _ Link: Lease Bound comic
68 _ Link: Quillette on Sons Becoming Daughters
69 _ Link: Babylon Bee "It's a Good Life" parody https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20ALZgd6_Ek
73 _ agents with different learning algorithms would find it hard to agree on words?
75 * Objection: but then shouldn't we pick different words for the convergent and phylo clusters? Uncomfortable with wavering lines around "berry"
76 * Reply: story for how we end up with multiple senses attached to the same word
77 https://jsmp.dk/posts/2021-01-24-fruits/
79 Trading Political Favors Doesn't Build True Maps, But Correcting Errors Your Yourself Made, Does
81 (Rationalists don't exist)
82 > how to be a strong rationalist
83 https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/4thPHxgBCvteQjLv6/against-context-free-integrity
85 _ A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning / Casuistry Is Unbecoming: Replies to Eliezer Yudkowsky (I don't know how to do this)
87 _ E.Y. as case study on unconscious-lying and self-report ("their verbal theories contradict their own datapoints" https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10159408250519228?comment_id=10159411435619228&reply_comment_id=10159411567794228 )
90 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zersetzung and the GPT-3 neuron about Trump: imagine a short story, where you suddenly become more villainous in the eyes of the narrative, and it's because a greater fraction of your measure is in simulations written based on an unfavorable view of your legacy (you're only aware of this because the GPT-descendant is smart enough to try to correct for it)
92 philosophy-of-language replies,
95 _ Reddit: /r/philosophy, /r/TheMotte, /r/theschism, /r/SneerClub
96 _ tags: "The SF Bay Area", "Criticisms of the Rationalist Movement", "Postmortems & Retrospectives"
98 _ "Cis" is like "gentile"
99 _ The Sex/Gender Distinction Was a Mistake
100 _ Complicity (how do reasonable people cooperate with each other instead of dumb people in their own coalition)
102 _ Stereotypes are weak probabilistic inferences (Agreeableness d~0.5), category-membership is strong inference, the same word/signal hits both, but stereotypes are (or should be) easy to cancel; shifting default meaning onto stereotypes in order to suit trans (while still having the word attach to something) is a bad trade
103 _ Taxometrics and the Fallacy of the Insufficiently Relevant, Insufficiently Multivariate Experiment
105 _ https://www.facebook.com/duncan.sabien/posts/3936528276381860 "Natural does not always mean good." — natural does not always mean good, but at our current tech level, that's actually a really good prior
106 _ Novemember 2020 Political Notes; Or, Sen. Kelly Loeffler Is Mostly Living in a Simulation Now
107 _ Phenotypic Identity and Memetic Capture
111 _ Yardstick abolition pessimism https://culturallyboundgender.wordpress.com/2018/11/13/gender-identity-isnt-a-box-its-a-yardstick/
112 _ reductionist rebuttal to "so you think lesbians aren't women"
113 _ Principles (transhumanism, and sanity)
114 _ reply to https://azdoine.tumblr.com/post/173995599942/a-reply-to-unremediatedgenderspace-on-reply-to http://archive.is/JSSNi
115 _ reply to https://deathisbadblog.com/the-real-transphobes-are-the-ones-we-made-along-the-way/
116 _ Cynical Theories review
117 _ Persongen/univariate fallacy/typical set
118 _ reply on psych prison https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4uvgb4/?context=3
119 _ Irreversible Damage review
120 _ Jessica/wiz AGP defense
121 _ Trans Kids on the Margin, and Harms From Misleading Training Data prior: https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2019/07/19/how-many-trans-folk-are-there-really/ https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2017/04/16/getting-lost-in-the-crowd/
122 _ "More Than We Can Say": High-Dimensional Social Science and the Conjunction of Small Effect Sizes
123 _ Comment on "Towards decolonising computational sciences" https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.14258
124 _ My Identity Has a Better Brier Score Than Your Identity
125 _ TV Review: "The Trouble With Edward"
126 _ Comment on "One Size Does Not Fit All: In Support of Psychotherapy for Gender Dysphoria" https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-020-01844-2 (tag: `review (paper)`)
127 _ the scapegoating dynamic
128 _ review of "What's the Big Secret?" (acknowledges gender-role conventions which are more salient when people are wearing clothes, but then tells the real answer)
129 _ reply to https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2020/11/16/hermeneutical-injustice-not-gaslighting/
130 _ Comment on "On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots" https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/k77sxz/d_timnit_gebru_and_google_megathread/gepcliq/ https://doxa.substack.com/p/googles-colosseum
132 - The Causality of Ethnic Differences in COVID-19 Outcomes Is an Open
133 _ follow to "Point Man": prosletyzing religion
134 _ Larmarckian Transmission of FtM?!
138 This is the same mechanism as "Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception"!!
139 > journalism is usually trustworthy because trustworthiness is the carrier vehicle. It's occasionally corrupt, because corruption is the payload.
140 https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/lje3nu/statement_on_new_york_times_article/gnfrprx/?context=3
142 optimized to confuse and intimidate people trying to use language to reason about the concept of biological sex, even if your conscious verbal narrative never says 'and now I will confuse and intimidate people who want to use language to reason about the concept of biological sex'!"
144 I should email caption bliggers and ask if they know about AGP
145 https://www.imagefap.com/profile/rickbennett
146 https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/03/swap-clinic-testimonial-i-can-work-with.html
147 https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/10/swap-clinic-win-win-win.html
149 reverse Wason selection task: https://twitter.com/ThetaGrunberg/status/1305296703088545792
151 (This needs to go into my "Motivations and Political Context")
152 Transitioning is easy if you project into the subspace spanned by "given name" and "preferred pronouns" and "frequency of wearing dresses." The problem is that it's not psychologically realistic to expect everyone else to just throw away all the other dimensions—people were using those dimensions!
154 (for Elision vs. Choice)
155 Speakers of my generation are more likely to say "person" when sex isn't relevant, whereas older works (pre-second wave feminism?) would actually say "man" (or "woman"—see how anachronistic it feels to put the female option second and in parentheses?), presumably not because human nature has changed that much, but because of shifting cultural priorities about when sex is "relevant." (Modern speakers similarly frown on mentioning race (https://agentultra.com/blog/the-black-man-stopped-me/) when it's not relevant.)
157 (My Identity Has a Better Brier Score)
158 I'm skeptical of "ace"—I think it's just an identity label that can be successfully marketed to otherwise-ordinary people in the bottom-quartile of libido, by an ideology that wants to sell people identity labels to get them to join the coalition of sexual minorities
159 You might reply: "But you identify as AGP, and attach emotional weight to that—isn't that just another identity label?"
160 but the thing about AGP is that, I actually have reason to believe it "fits" the territory of the underlying psychological variation
161 it's an expression of the theory that trans women (left-coded) and the subjects of that old Atlantic article about (right-coded) married crossdressers ("Conservative Men in Conservative Dresses") are the same thing
162 invariant under the cultural coding
165 _ Eugenics Is Actually Good, You Worthless Cowards
166 _ The One Where I Try to Be A Little More Explicit About What 'Autogynephilia' Actually Entails
167 _ No One Actually Wants to Change "Gender"
168 _ Ideology Is the General Case (working title)
169 _ Boundary Violations and Territory
170 _ three views on partisanship: "Hierarchy and Wings" "Bioleninism" "Democracy Cis and Trans"
171 _ Link: "AGPs! GROW A PAIR AND POLICE YOUR OWN COMMUNITY!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_qFxtJ7pxw Karen Davis
172 _ Gay + Trans = Straight
175 _ Walker correspondence
176 _ 30 Years of the Blank Slate (Cosmides-Tooby/Pinker/Murray)
177 _ "I Hope You're Happy, California"
178 _ Travis's Trilemma: Creepy, Crazy, or Protected-Class (working title)
179 _ Reply to Ozymandias on Lesbians and on Single-Sex Spaces
180 _ Answers on Great Divides: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/08/questions-for-great-divides.html
181 _ Film Review: Your Name
182 _ World of Masks https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1228093035042541569
183 _ glomerular filtration rate https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/gq50mo/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_may_25_2020/frvrhwg/
184 _ I Am Very Bad at Keeping Secrets and Am Therefore Very Reluctant to Offer Confidentiality Promises
186 _ starting to lose sympathy for my crazy past-self
188 "You're conflating sex and gender"—the problem is, Does anyone actually want to change "gender"?—they're bundled for a reason
191 _ You and What Army? Or, The Wisdom to Know the Difference
192 _ different ways of factoring a Bayes net of the same data make different predictions about interventions
193 _ COVID life-years (rather than deaths)
194 _ Signals, Deception, and the Precession of Simulacra (LW)
195 _ Contra Scott Alexander on Mental Illness; Or, Oh God, Please Don't (aAL/LW)
196 _ Comment on Wireheading /r/rational
197 _ Second Derivative (Paul Christiano on growth timelines)
198 _ Selective Reporting and Clustering
199 _ Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization—marginally neglected truths are more
200 _ Explicit Disjunction vs. Contradictory Arguments from a Bottom Line
201 _ How they Pin It Down: Equal Environments Assumption Edition https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cXzTpSiCrNGzeoRAz/conjunction-controversy-or-how-they-nail-it-down
202 _ Social Construction is an Embedded Agency Problem
204 it's important to have language for psychology because you can't point to pictures
206 Training Data—"get used" to the new definitions, in time
208 "You can follow people you disagree with!" makes sense if you think of
212 if pro-reality trans people are allied with more numerous anti-reality trans people, that incentivizes me to join an anti-trans coalition, when what I actually (should) want is to cherry-pick the pro-reality people
214 another thing keeping me from trans-IDing: trans is "marked"; choosing it would mean associating with the crazy. Normal Society (with men named Zack) has its own madnesses and crimes, but
217 Vocabulary as Capital Investment
219 _ Challenges of Mounting an Ideological Crusade
221 B.F. being smart-but-dense
223 how taxonomy/typology emerges from Bayesian networks
225 _ On Being Stereotyped Badly (working title)
229 https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/trvFowBfiKiYi7spb/open-thread-july-2019/comment/RYhKrKAxiQxY3FcHa
230 > I think sometimes I talk in a way that makes me seem more politically naïve than I actually am, because I feel as if the “naïve” attitude is in some way normative? (“You really think someone would do that? Just go on the internet and tell lies?”)
233 The Wisdom of Nature (I like the idea of transhumanism, but in practice, biology is just too complicated) https://nickbostrom.com/evolution.pdf
236 _ Product Review: FaceApp
238 _ The Strategy of "Apartment Patty" — the outrage strategy only works if you have a coalition to back you up. Deterrent: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/05/case-social-media-mobs/612202/ Another example: https://twitter.com/jaimetoons/status/1271300265170186240
240 Psychiatrist's response to me is kind of case-in-point https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4valma/
242 you regress to your group's mean—but that depends on how you draw the category boundaries around group membership! This could be a good math post!! https://humanvarieties.org/2017/07/01/measurement-error-regression-to-the-mean-and-group-differences/
244 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agalmatophilia "An important fantasy for some individuals is being transformed into the preferred object (such as a statue) and experiencing an associated state of immobility or paralysis."
246 address accusation that I conflate "passing" and biosex
250 Positioning (don't want to prematurely alienate people you're trying to rescue)
252 conservatives complain about low-time preference ppl having too many kids—but from a evolutionary perspective, they're more evolutionarily fit
254 A Science Fiction Story Idea I'm Not Skilled Enough to Write
256 Names and Genders Are Not Relevantly Analogous
258 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agalmatophilia didn't make it into Lawrence's erotic target location paper, did it?
262 Anne Lawrence on AGP Teen Transition
263 Anne Lawrence on Unapologetic Autogynephilic Transsexualism
265 Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization
269 explain my blunder in https://twitter.com/jessi_cata/status/1188567229987577856
271 reply to https://surveyanon.wordpress.com/2019/10/27/the-mathematical-consequences-of-a-toy-model-of-gender-transition/
273 testimony on trans girl periods: http://www.onwednesdays.net/trans-girl-periods/
278 Reading Comprehension Is Rape Culture
280 Reply to David R. MacIver on Gendering
282 Trying to Be Explicit
284 Instrumental Categories, and War
286 (lit-search strategy: go through the del Guidice "Multivariate Misgivings" article and its citations; the Archer paper also mentioned this)
288 Commentary on "Blegg Mode"
290 Faster Than Science (Transgender Edition)
292 (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GEJzPwY8JedcNX2qz/blegg-mode)
294 karaoke, celebrity, cognitive load; I don't want people to do that for me
296 Option<String>?! https://web.archive.org/web/20160731010249/https://qntm.org/gay
299 _ "Lies to Cis People", a.k.a., "Lies"
300 _ I Mean, Yes, I Agree That Man Should Allocate Some More Categories, But
303 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ZvJab25tDebB8FGE/you-have-about-five-words : well, that explains the TWAW mantra
305 The Parable of the Good Witch
307 First-Offender Models and the Unilateralist's Blessing
308 The Parable of the Faithful Man and the Cowardly Priest
310 Game Theory of "Apartment Patty"
312 Virtue Signaling Is Costly and Honest
313 (in response to Kosoy's objection)
315 Servants of the Egregore (write-up of egregore theory as told by "Wilhelm")
317 Kolmogorov's Iron Triangle; Or, the Not-Being-a-Worthless-Coward Option (epigraph quote: Raleigh's "The Lie")—(include analogy: the fear that atheism would lead to immortality given that ppl don't have to fear Hell, wouldn't have seemed obviously absurd at the time) — honesty, ability to think, and mainstream credibility. The Kolmogorov option sacrifices a lot of honesty in exchange for mainstream credibility. This might seem like a good trade until you consider that "honesty" and "ability to think" aren't independent (because people are bad at compartmentalization and we need to talk to each other to think together).
319 Research Question: Complicity
322 Where to Segment a Conversation When There's Stuff You Won't Touch, Without Violating the Virtue of Evenness
323 In Praise of Cartesianism (you need to _really_ understand "A Human's Guide to Words" before you can do high-grade good-faith social constructionism)
325 Sex Differences and Commonsense Priors (I have parsimony intuitions that make "AGP is caused by pollution" or "AGP is normal in cis women" or "hormone receptors distributions are the same" seem not worth considering)
327 In the Presence of Mimickry, Extension and Intension Simplicity Trade-Off
329 Objectivity as a Rhetorical Strategy: probability, words, morality
330 Focus on the Simple Case (accurate maps can have bad effects, but that's a weird second-order analysis)
333 A Human's Abridged Guide to Gender Words
337 in a world where we _actually had_ sex change technology, self-identity doctrine _wouldn't even occur to anyone_
339 Operationalization of Bad Faith: if people make reasoning errors that they wouldn't make with another topic having the same underlying structure
343 The Charity Convergence Trap
351 a big essay about Batesian mimickry
354 _ Codes of Convergence; Or, Smile More
356 _ "I Will Fight [...]": LGBT Patriotism and the Moral Fine-Tuning Objection
363 _ The View From Nowhere
367 _ reply to Ozy on https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/08/03/rapid-onset-gender-dysphoria-is-bad-science/ (when marketing in Culture War thread, maybe hat tip https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/9cir3w/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_03/e5c1h2c/ )
368 _ Q An Infovist's Advisory; Or, Standing Athwart History ...
373 ✓ Interlude XVII (not all men)
375 can the comment on "Bit Players" actually fit on this blog (I didn't empathize with offense at fake physics, but I can take offense at maximum-entropy psychology): epigraph quote, "It's Only a Paper Moon"
377 Q As Well for a Sheep as a Lamb; Or, Charity, Objectivity, and ...
380 _ Stereotypes, Models, and Cognition: Beyond Maximum-Entropy Psychology
381 Imperfect Trait Measurements Regress to the Mean
382 Q The Gender Czar's Compromise
386 Q Book Review: Nevada
387 Product Review: Oculus Go
389 All You Had to Say https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/8xa97t/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_july_09_2018/e228vyj/
395 Q Time Travel Isn't Real; Or, Yes, the Only Real Trans Woman Is a Transitioned Trans Woman
396 _ The Neglect of Probability Fallacy; Or, You Do Not Have an Intersex Condition
397 Q Simple Models Plus Noise Are Better Than Pretending Not to Have a Model
398 Falsifiability and What We Expect Not to See
400 Q The Hand I Was Dealt
401 "diagonalize" http://gender-decoder.katmatfield.com/ by running the research paper it was based on through it
402 Q Reduce Gender Identities to Gender Goals
403 Threnody for the Transhumanism of My Youth
404 of course trans genders are less natural; that's the entire fucking point
405 People Really Don't Know Why They Do Things
406 Q I Want to See You Be Brave
407 Passing Is Legitimacy, Legitimacy Is Passing
408 All Men Benefit From Patriarchy
409 (the story about my name)
410 Review of Nerve Endings: The New Trans Erotic
411 on the poor literary quality of TG captions
412 "Another Me I Haven't Met" (SacAnime cosplay review)
413 go back to east bay tg club night?
414 Product Review: Glamour Boutique's Vee-String Bladder
415 Q This Is Worth a Fight
416 "Trans Women Are Women" is a Positive-Affect Instance of the Noncentral Fallacy
420 story of Gina and Vern selected for GNC
421 story about women engineers and male businesspeople
422 story about race of humans who have a "sneaky" camoflauge form and someone with their analogue of AGP tries to deliberately lower his status to get it
423 fix fic for that one episode of _The Orville_