+[TODO outlining remainder of coda—]
+
+[You haven't said all the facts, because before the Glorious Transhumanist Future of technological maturity, you still inherit a lot of the pre-technology distribution. The existence of HRT doesn't mean that everyone is the sex that they say they are—it means that instead of two clusters (females and males), you have four clusters (females, males, females-on-masculinizing-HRT, and males-on-feminizing-HRT). There might be situations where you want to use the {female, males-on-feminizing-HRT} category, but there are also situations where you might want to use the developmental sex categories. In the case of sports, the question of "who is the best within the female distribution" is a natural question that people are interested in (even if most of them don't have the vocabulary to say "multivariate trait distribution", the essentialist cognitive algorithm is still performing very well in this domain), given that natal sex continues to be relevant, and was _obviously_ relevant before HRT
+
+https://twitter.com/FondOfBeetles/status/1368176581965930501
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40279-020-01389-3
+https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/55/15/865
+
+https://twitter.com/FondOfBeetles/status/1466044767561830405
+Lia Thomas and Cece Tefler
+(Thomas and Tefler's records occured after Yudkowsky's 2018 Tweets, but this kind of thing was easily predictable to anyone familiar with sex differences)
+
+Yudkowsky's suggestion that the only reason someone might care about women's sports is because of a comittment to "Aristotelian binary" is pure sneer; this isn't something any scientifically person would write if they had actually thought about the issue at all, rather than having decided to score points against transphobes and using your knowledge of probability in the service of that goal (which gives the lie to Yudkowsky's claim that he was only trying to make a point about pronouns and truth; the sports policy decision is a policy decision rather than a fact, but it's so lopsided, that the "humor" goes in the other direction)]
+
+> it is sometimes personally prudent and not community-harmful to post your agreement with Stalin about things you actually agree with Stalin about, in ways that exhibit generally rationalist principles, especially because people do _know_ they're living in a half-Stalinist environment
+
+Ah, _prudence!_
+
+This is what https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bad_faith means