-Utilitarianism doesn't work (for humans); you might think you can impartially do a back-of-the-envelope calculation that would be better than nothing, but in practice, the calculation has so many degrees of freedom that its result is mostly determined by "whatever political coalition has managed to make its agenda most salient to you". [coalitional politics]
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-("divine providence" and "subtle social punishment" make similar predictions, you might not know how to decide between them)
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-if you can mf everyone into beleiving that AGPs are really women, that actually does make it easier to transition