-The v-structure between sexual orientation, erotic target location erroneousness, and autogynephilia has been documented by Anne Lawrence:
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-The autogynehilia→transition arrow has
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-The cultural-factors→transition arrow is obvious if you haven't been living under a rock for the last decade.
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-[quantifying the two-type effect:
-Lippa 2000 "Gender-Related Traits in [...]"
-2.70 effect of femininity for gay vs. not-day and 1.07 for "any" vs. "no" attraction to men
-mean GD score for non-lesbian women as 0.31; mean score for gay men was 0.30!
-—oh, maybe I want to be using Study 2, which had a better sample of gays
-GD occupations in study 2
-gay men are at .48 (.14); straight women at .36 (.13); straight men at .68 (.12)
-that's d=–1.61 between gay and straight men
-a gay man only needs to be 1 standard deviation (.48-.36 = 0.12) more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight women
-whereas a straight man needs to be (.68-.36 = 0.32) 0.32/0.12=2.67 more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight woman—that's rarer, but not impossible
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-In percentile terms, 1-norm.cdf(1) = 0.15 of gay men are as feminine as a woman
-whereas 1-norm.cdf(2.67) = 0.003 of straight men are
-that's a likelihood ratio of 50 ... but the prior is not that far from 50:1 in the other direction! They cancel out!!
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-For concreteness: what does the Bayes net spit out if 3% of men are gay, and 5% are AGP, and whatever other assumptions I need to make this work?
-Suppose gays transition if they're 2-sigma feminine ...
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-[further implications: as cultural factors increase, the late-onset type becomes more of a "NOS" rather than AGP type]
+This has been a qualitative summary of my current thinking. I'm very bullish on thinking in graphical models rather than discrete taxons being the way to go, but it would be a lot more work to try to pin down all these claims rigorously—or, to the extent that my graph is wrong, to figure out the correct (or, _a_ more correct, less wrong) graph instead.