-resisted from posting in Eliezerfic, left an eyeroll emoji instead—
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-I mean, it's worth noting that their concept of a "good reason" literally includes "prediction markets think people will be happier this way". This is not a Society that gives a shit (as a terminal value) about non-Keepers having accurate information (or they wouldn't, _e.g._, gaslight Merrin about how famous she is).
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-_Of course_ a Society that prizes freedom-from-infohazards as a core value is going to have lots of "good reasons" for the systematically-misleading-representations they make, that will seem genuinely compelling to the people of that Society who are in on it!
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-One might have hoped that dath ilani would be self-aware enough to notice that things that seem like a "good reason" for a conspiracy _to dath ilani_, would not seem like a "good reason" to people from a Society that prizes freedom-of-speech? But if they've screened off their history (for the greater good, of course), they might not have a concept of what other Societies are like ...
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-(Yes, I know we've been informed by authorial fiat that dath ilan has a lot of internal diversity, but there are necessarily limits to that if you're going to be a human Society specifically rather than a Solomonff inductor, and it seems clear that any faction that thinks gaslighting Merrin is morally wrong is on the losing end of the counterfactual warfare of democracy.)
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+bullet notes for Tail analogy—
+ * My friend Tailcalled is better at science than me; in the hours that I've wasted with personal, political, and philosophical writing, he's actually been running surveys and digging into statistical methodology.
+ * As a result of his surveys, Tail was convinced of the two-type taxonomy, started /r/Blanchardianism, &c.
+ * Arguing with him resulted in my backing away from pure BBL ("Useful Approximation")
+ * Later, he became disillusioned with "Blanchardians" and went to war against them. I kept telling him he _is_ a "Blanchardian", insofar as he largely agrees with the main findings (about AGP as a major cause). He corresponded with Bailey and became frustrated with Bailey's ridigity. Blanchardians market themselves as disinterest truthseekers, but a lot of what they're actually doing is providing a counternarrative to social justice.
+ * There's an analogy between Tail's antipathy for Bailey and my antipathy for Yudkowsky: I still largely agree with "the rationalists", but the way especially Yudkowsky markets himself as a uniquely sane thinker