tie off "Useful Approximation" draft

[Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git] / notes / notes.txt

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@@ -1224,16 +1224,10 @@ a Facebook acquaintance (who didn't pass very well when we met in October): 'Of
 
 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/12/radical-feminist-warned-refer-transgender-defendant-assault/
 
 
 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/12/radical-feminist-warned-refer-transgender-defendant-assault/
 

-"yeah in public we say 'cis women' but tran to tran we just say 'women,' we‘re not insane lol"
-no transsexual is like 'from a young age all i ever wanted was to be.. cis'
-https://twitter.com/theorygurl/status/1062451652836446208
-

 https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/bhulic/i_cant_do_this_any_more_i_need_to_divorce_my/
 
 thanks for the marketing advice! I should _definitely_ take that into account if I ever decide to put more effort into "persuading people", which sounds like something that an aspiring instrumental rationalist would care about. Perhaps unfortunately, however, I'm an aspiring epistemic rationalist: all I can do is try to communicate what I actually think and feel using clear language (and standard rhetorical techniques like sarcasm, satire, &c. that people know how to interpret even if they wouldn't be clear if someone naïvely took the words literally). If other people aren't persuaded by this ... maybe they _shouldn't_ be! Maybe I can live with that!
 
 https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/bhulic/i_cant_do_this_any_more_i_need_to_divorce_my/
 
 thanks for the marketing advice! I should _definitely_ take that into account if I ever decide to put more effort into "persuading people", which sounds like something that an aspiring instrumental rationalist would care about. Perhaps unfortunately, however, I'm an aspiring epistemic rationalist: all I can do is try to communicate what I actually think and feel using clear language (and standard rhetorical techniques like sarcasm, satire, &c. that people know how to interpret even if they wouldn't be clear if someone naïvely took the words literally). If other people aren't persuaded by this ... maybe they _shouldn't_ be! Maybe I can live with that!
 

-You _can't_ optimize your group's culture for not-talking-about-atheism without also optimizing against understanding Occam's razor; you _can't_ optimize for not questioning gender self-identity without also optimizing against understanding "A Human's Guide to Words."
-

 I guess I can't argue with that, but I wish I knew what happened to my wallet
 
 https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/ray-blanchard-transgender-orthodoxy/
 I guess I can't argue with that, but I wish I knew what happened to my wallet
 
 https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/ray-blanchard-transgender-orthodoxy/


@@ -3157,3 +3151,27 @@ I would guess that me and Yudkowsky and Evil Reactionary Twitter Friend actually
 and basically the thing I'm trying to do with my blog is that I like our culture and I want to fight for its (renormalized) values, but it's kind of pathetic that no one can jump up a meta level and see it _as_ a culture, _as_ an ideology
 as _contingent_
 as contingent but in a way that it's OK to reason about out loud, rather than being wordlessly afraid that talking will break everything
 and basically the thing I'm trying to do with my blog is that I like our culture and I want to fight for its (renormalized) values, but it's kind of pathetic that no one can jump up a meta level and see it _as_ a culture, _as_ an ideology
 as _contingent_
 as contingent but in a way that it's OK to reason about out loud, rather than being wordlessly afraid that talking will break everything

+
+> Lia Thomas as the anti-Rosa Parks. Least sympathetic case imaginable, single-handedly turned public opinion against the cause.
+https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1538651344361246720
+
+Even the reviews of Nevada don't reveal the secret!!—okay, the New Yorker one sort of does ("erotic transvestite scenarios", "liking girls just in a totally impossible way")
+https://www.vulture.com/article/profile-imogen-binnie-nevada.html
+https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/06/27/the-invention-of-the-trans-novel-imogen-binnie-nevada
+
+> it doesn't feature nonbinary characters, and a similar novel written today would require them, not least for accuracy.
+(2013 was less than a decade ago!!)
+
+preference cascade is starting ...
+https://twitter.com/jessesingal/status/1538541182975877120
+
+[quantifying the two-type effect:
+GD occupations in study 2
+gay men are at .48 (.14); straight women at .36 (.13); straight men at .68 (.12)
+that's d=–1.61 between gay and straight men
+a gay man only needs to be 1 standard deviation (.48-.36 = 0.12) more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight women
+whereas a straight man needs to be (.68-.36 = 0.32) 0.32/0.12=2.67 more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight woman—that's rarer, but not impossible
+
+In percentile terms, 1-norm.cdf(1) = 0.15 of gay men are as feminine as a woman
+whereas 1-norm.cdf(2.67) = 0.003 of straight men are
+that's a likelihood ratio of 50 ... but the prior is not that far from 50:1 in the other direction! They cancel out!!]