I don't think we're in equilibrium; I don't think everyone knows what's going on
-
fragments—
O Wad Some Power the Giftie Gie Us; Or, the Identity Dysphoria Trap (school dysphoria)
Choir
+It's actually HELPFUL when friends point out an insonsistency between my self-report and my behavior. Ben asked, "Do you care about that?" And I said, "No", and Ben said, "I think you partially care, which is why you're so upset about this"
+
+
+
"The Distance Between Mars and Venus: Measuring Global Sex Differences in Personality" http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0029265
Stop Expecting Social Reality to Make Sense
on a Facebook thread about female-dominated gym classes, a female acquaintance writes, "My class focuses on weightlifting and it's still all women (including one trans, oddly enough)." (You wouldn't say "oddly enough" if you actually believed that trans women are women!)
This is so great (super-AGP 13th century Jewish narrative)
+https://web.archive.org/web/20160420122918/http://www.on1foot.org/text/even-bochan-kalonymus-ben-kalonymus
http://www.on1foot.org/text/even-bochan-kalonymus-ben-kalonymus
http://www.transtorah.org/PDFs/On-Becoming-A-Woman.pdf
is an [X]. Most of them, in fact, are not. Nor is it absolutely guaranteed
that every single [X] will be a party member. But most of them, in fact,
are"—thus, requiring representaiton of Xes benefits the party
- * practice of deferring to designated-victim trans women _makes the trans
- women worse people_: if you know that you can win a dispute by playing the
- transphobia card, that incentive shapes your life (Moldbug: discussion of
- "ignoble privilege" in "Gentle Introduction" pt. 3)
- * kind of like how _the right to be sued_ is an important part of legal
- personhood: the possibility of recourse is necessary for trust
feminists are masculinized: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4158978/
https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2018/11/30/36431918/if-the-future-is-nonbinary-its-a-bleak-one-for-women
-"Obviously I socially gender him as male as per his preference."
-
-"I wouldn't call it a 'preference' exactly."
-
-"I gender him male as per his philosophical commitments"
-
https://www.theverge.com/2014/4/28/5661118/lab-mice-fear-men-not-women-big-problem-for-science
Mad Ouroboros on the Somewhere Else Discord speculates that "don't call me cis" gendercrits and AFAB enbies are having the same internal gender experience
"Power that is not aligned with natural law leads to evil, because it requires constantly denying reality and punishing dissenters."
"OK, but I still want my own breasts"
-Scott got a lot of pushback just for including the blog that I showed him in a links post (Times have changed! BBL is locally quasi-mainstream after Ozy engaged)
-
but I am starting to get a more detailed appreciation of how the thing-that-is-good-that-I-want-to-call-"individualism" has a lot of missing implementation details; "Everyone's self-reported self-identity must be uncritically respected" social norms are trying to maximize a certain kind of individual choice (you not only get to choose your gender, you can even write-in a new one!), but that choice is taking place in the context of a very specific delusional cultural environment that penalizes other kinds of individual choices (like criticizing the delusions)
I'm sad that my update from "Blanchard is probably wrong because everyone's self-report says it's wrong" to "self-reports are pretty crazy" probably has implication for "Red Pill is probably wrong because everyone's self-report says it's wrong"
One way of describing the trigger for me having gone bezerk starting in February is that I'm horrified that my neoreactionary friends are visibly way smarter than my rationalist friends. This is terrible, because kabbalistically, neoreaction is about being evil, and rationality is about being smart. It is written that being smart is more important than being good for humans (because trying to be good typically involves artificially restricting your hypothesis space; if good people don't permit themselves to even consider X, then they'll have trouble modeling a world in which lots of people make their living off X). But I really didn't expect that, in practice, trying to be evil makes you smarter than trying to be smart does!
-(Okay, I was brainwashed by progressivism pretty hard, but ideologies need to appeal to something in human nature; you can't brainwash a human with random bits; they need to be specific bits with something good in them.)
-
the oscillation between "I'm embarrassed and upset about {thing} that I don't want to acknowledge or explain, but that makes me not want to acknowledge or explain the fact that I feel embarrassed an upset" vs. "Yes, {thing} is real; real things are allowed to appear on maps"
Goodhart's Lawyer (credit "Wilhelm")
https://abc30.com/homeless-women-harassed-in-shower-lawsuit-says/3514544/
-If you ever find yourself saying, "Even if Hypothesis H is true, it doesn't have any decision-relevant implications," YOU ARE RATIONALIZING! The fact that H is interesting enough for you to be considering the question at all (it's not some arbitrary trivium like the 1923th binary digit of π, or the low temperature in São Paulo on September 17, 1978) means that it must have some relevance to the things you care about. It is VANISHINGLY IMPROBABLE that your optimal decisions are going to be the SAME in worlds where H is true and worlds where H is false. The fact that you're tempted to SAY they're the same is probably because some part of you is afraid of some of the imagined consequences of H being true. But H is already true or already false! If you happen to live in a world where H is true, and you make decisions as if you lived in a world where H is false, you are thereby missing out on all the extra utility you would get if you made the H-optimal decisions instead!
-
-If you can figure out exactly what you're afraid of, maybe that will help you work out what the H-optimal decisions are. Then you'll be a better position to successfully notice which world you ACTUALLY live in. http://lesswrong.com/lw/o4/leave_a_line_of_retreat/
-
-
"Jesse Singal is a transphobic piece of shit!"
Separately, may also be worth considering https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preference_falsification … when deciding what merits "piece of shit" status? Who knows if some of the ppl you follow are (e.g.) autogynephilia truthers, but don't write about it under their real name because they see the reaction to Singal?
circle game paranoia: http://www.unz.com/isteve/bad-juju-in-oak-park-il/
-https://medium.com/@barrakerr/pronouns-are-rohypnol-dbcd1cb9c2d9
-
https://arcdigital.media/on-transwomen-and-sports-54fe1a8963e
https://medium.com/@katieja/young-children-reality-sex-and-gender-3421f4f165f1
-https://knowingless.com/2019/06/06/side-effects-of-preferred-pronouns/
-
-"please like think before you go around using “afab” or “amab” to refer broadly to groups of people in your tweets. neither of these categories are like coherent social categories in any way, and are often used in ways that perpetuate trans misogyny" https://twitter.com/folkpunkjunk/status/1140278990072102912
+"please like think before you go around using "afab" or "amab" to refer broadly to groups of people in your tweets. neither of these categories are like coherent social categories in any way, and are often used in ways that perpetuate trans misogyny" https://twitter.com/folkpunkjunk/status/1140278990072102912
https://medium.com/@aytchellis/talking-past-each-other-about-trans-gender-1da8e058caf8
"Given that English has gendered personal pronouns and it's not feasible to redesign the English language to change this, marking babies in some way to indicate their biological sex (with clothing color, or perhaps by gluing something to them) can be a useful social technology, because it allows people to just say, \"She's such a good baby!\" without having to ask about the baby's sex. Now, obviously, we don't want to indoctrinate innocent babies into oppressive gender roles that might not be a good fit for them, and I agree that gendered clothing increases our risk of falling into this well-trodden failure mode. But maybe there's some way for smart people who understand the problem in sufficient detail to avoid that failure mode, without becoming pawns in a memetic war against \"noticing that biological sex continues to be a predictively-useful concept.\""
-laim that the cultural presumption that anything bad that happens to trans people (like losing a job) is probably due to discrimination and transphobia is actually bad for trans people in the long run, because it incentivizes other members of society to treat trans people like inherently fragile designated victims (to be avoided if possible and coddled if not possible), rather than just ordinary people who happen to be trans\u00e2\u0080\u0094if you were a business owner, you wouldn't want to hire someone who you couldn't fire without fearing a lawsuit, and if you can't not-hire them without also fearing a lawsuit, conveniently happening to lose their resume starts looking like a good life strategy! You can't outlaw Bayesian reasoning and feedback mechanisms! I understand why it's tempting to think that you can, but don't hate the player; hate the game-theoretic nature of all life!",
-
people treat an organisation with more respect and status than simply bunch of people\n\nYes, exactly! This is an exciting arbitrage opportunity for agents who care less about respect and status (in the eyes of people who respect institutions; they may care about an alternative gray/black market of respect and status), and more about Doing Things That Make Sense Even If That's Not the Way Things Are Done Around Here.",
"I think sufficiently self-aware, sufficiently prosocial narcissists and sociopaths deserve love! I hope I don't have any ulterior motives for saying this! (I don't _think_ I'm a narcissist or a sociopath, but people can have false beliefs about themselves.)",
policing: "we definitely expect better models of gender out of you": https://twitter.com/atax1a/status/1157066530028265473
-I just thought of an interesting argument that almost no one else would (because it requires both prog-sight and NRx-sight)
-You know the "signaling hazard" (pace Jim) argument against public tolerance of male homosexuality (tolerating gays interferes with normal men expressing affection for each other without being seen as gay, which is bad for unit cohesion, &c.). Until recently, I hadn't thought much of it (because of my prog upbringing)—why do you care if someone isn't sure you're straight?
-but recent events have made me more sympathetic to its empirical reality—if human nature is such that 140+ IQ ppl actually can't publicly clear up a trivial philosophy-of-language dispute because of the fear of appearing transphobic—well, that's really dumb, but it's the SAME KIND of dumb as "can't express male friendship because of the fear of appearing gay"
-which suggests a "signaling hazard" argument in favor of political correctness (!!)—we can't tolerate racism, or else Good people would have to incur more costs to signal antiracism (same structure as "we can't tolerate gays, or else normal guys have to incur more costs to signal not-gayness")
-
-older works (pre-second wave feminism?) would actually say "man" (or "woman"—see how anachronistic it feels to put the female option second and in parentheses?), presumably not because human nature has changed that much, but because of shifting cultural priorities about when sex is "relevant." (Modern speakers [similarly frown on](https://agentultra.com/blog/the-black-man-stopped-me/) mentioning race when it's not relevant.)
My gender crusade becomes much less interesting insofar as it can be explained simply by me being born too early and not getting "kids these days." It's not that cultural change is necessarily bad; it's that I want culture to innovate in the direction of "achieving godlike understanding of objective reality and optimizing the hell out of it" rather than "playing mind games on each other to make it artificially harder to notice that we don't actually live in a Total Morphological Freedom tech regime."
"Had I not transitioned, I would fear the power you have over me, and remain silent." https://aria.dog/support-all-your-friends/
-
https://www.reddit.com/r/ftm/comments/cqplrh/how_do_yall_cope_in_mixed_trans_spaces/
Raven is cosplayed more than any other Teen Titan
I thought it should be acceptable for someone to send one final "OK, sorry" message in response to being told to stop contacting someone
where I feel like my position is analogous to Scott Aaronson's complaint about his police encounter: https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=3903 , that people who are in the process of complying should be treated with good faith; you don't want the cops to shoot unarmed men and defend themselves on the grounds of, "Well, he wasn't complying fast enough"
-that's the thing; I read as lefty because I am morally lefty (in contrast to Real Men Who Lift &c.); it's just that I had the "bad luck" of reading everything I could about race and IQ after the James Watson affair in 'aught-seven, and all my leftness is filtered through ten years of living with inconvenient hypotheses
-
"Every year, the people who are isomorphic in opinions to you become more masculine (because of everyone moving left), which means they are going to have more inferential distance on gender dysphoria."
you can get away with a lot when you read as a lefty? At hack day, someone said they read about Pinterest's skin-tone debiaser tech being thrown out because it drew on very old papers by a EUGENICIST (article turned out to be https://www.wired.com/story/pinterest-skin-tone-search/ ), and I was like, Oh, interesting, so what was wrong with the research? That got an incredulous stare: "You mean, what's wrong with eugenics??!" And I'm like, no, that's not what I mean, I'm curious about the specfiic technical flaw, which is distinct from the author's odious views
https://medium.com/@transstyleguide/alternatives-to-afab-and-amab-d7cf8fe20a72
-changing emotions/accent fantasies: https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/wAW4ENCSEHwYbrwtn/other-people-s-procedural-knowledge-gaps/comment/pheakgvLbFndXccXC
-
There are Facts About Males that neurotypicals probably don't explain in words? Something about how a gentleman who doesn't want to be more specific, if he were going to be more specific, might end up using the word curvature. But maybe I've already said too much.
support group can't mention anatomy: https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/bripts/peak_trans_ix_tell_your_story_here/f6wjry3/
-----
-19 February, the kid reportedly said, "I'll put a piglet in my salad because I want to kill lots of animals." None of the grownups construed this as a reversal of the earlier vegetarianism claim, because none of the grownups took the earlier claim seriously.
-
-1 March: "When i grow up i'm gonna eat pigs."
-
-14 March: "I'm a pterodactyl dragon."
-
-17 March: "I was a hospital before but then I went through a metamorphosis...now I'm a crocodile."
-
-13 June: re "lesbian [...] seems actually just implementable in behavior without other resources" ... not even hormone replacement therapy? Frankly, I think this attitude is cruel (in its effects, however benevolent the intentions). Transitioning, or not-transitioning, is a serious life decision with wide-ranging social and medical implications. In order to help people make the right decision—whatever that turns out to be—I want people to have the most accurate information possible and the most precise concepts possible. Getting this stuff right—not just stopping at the first answer that sounds good to your Tumblr followers—is actually decision-relevant to me. In twelve years, it could very well be decision-relevant to Merlin.
-
-"The problem is not social engineering! The problem is _incompetent_ social engineering! The problem is not experimenting on children! The problem is experimenting on children in the service of an ideological crusade rather than in the service of finding out what happens!" https://www.facebook.com/zmdavis/posts/10154963540980199 (Mike Liked it)
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SqNvmwDxRibLXjMZN/and-say-no-more-of-it
+> Anything done with an ulterior motive has to be done with a pure heart.
-----
https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/dy7241/peak_trans_x_tell_your_story_here/filh1fn/
-
-https://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1229060502984306689
-> For those determined to miss the point, I deplore the idea of a eugenic policy. I simply said deploring it doesn’t mean it wouldn’t work. Just as we breed cows to yield more milk, we could breed humans to run faster or jump higher. But heaven forbid that we should do it.
-
-> While a limited form of selection in humans is acceptable—for example, preventing a couple who are carriers of a recessive genetic defect or disease from producing an offspring with that condition—the kind of wholesale and directed selective breeding of humans suggested by the word “eugenics” is immoral, and I don’t favor it at all.
-https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2020/02/20/discovery-institute-makes-hay-of-dawkins-tweet-and-a-geneticist-mistakenly-says-that-artificial-selection-wont-work-in-humans/
-
-> I hold eugenics to be completely immoral and we should not attempt to implement it.
-https://twitter.com/SwipeWright/status/1229890352275955713
-
> "We must be guided by solidarity, not stigma," the director general of the World Health Organization warned on Saturday. "The greatest enemy we face is not the virus itself; it’s the stigma that turns us against each other."
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1229832977472946184
https://archive.is/1pQ4p
----
-"I don't think you're giving my past self enough credit."
-
-"You were brainwashed by the Malevolent Authority."
-
-"I mean, yes, but you can't brainwash a human with random bits; they have to be _specific_ bits with something _good_ in them."
-
-----
-
https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/dy7241/peak_trans_x_tell_your_story_here/fmg5eps/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16488877
"I had never settled on a form": https://i.redd.it/ygbkj3ock6x31.jpg General factor of ETLE?
+https://dsh.fyi/posts/2020-04-14-im-trans-call-me-daisy/
+
+"gender modality" https://www.florenceashley.com/academic-publications.html
+
+I'm not usually—at least, not always—so much of a scrub as to play chess with a pigeon (which shits on the board and then struts around like it's won), or wrestle with a pig (which gets you both dirty, and the pig likes it), or dispute what the Tortise said to Achilles
+
+https://www.jehsmith.com/1/2019/12/are-cows-adult-bovine-females.html
+https://www.jehsmith.com/1/2020/01/gendered-animal-names-a-postscript.html
+
+marketing opportunity: https://www.peaktrans.org/contact/
+
+https://web.archive.org/web/20160406094634/http://mariacatt.com/2016/03/31/the-adult-baby-story/
+
+> If you want to change a culture, think in terms of the evolutionary aspects of it. You might be able to do it by just shaking things up and letting it slide into a new equilibrium, but this only works if there's an equilibrium where you want to be. Fighting the adaptation pressure is a losing game. —https://notebook.drmaciver.com/posts/2020-02-28-06:33.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/g4mse5/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_april_20_2020/fo0oug1/
+> a higher proportion of millionaires (5%) than women (4.9%). In addition, the proportion who want to have more than 4 children in the end (13.5%) is greater than the proportion who currently have more than 0 (13.3%)
+
+----
+
+https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10158118341274598?comment_id=10158118460954598&reply_comment_id=10158118537469598
+> it's not terribly surprising if many autistic people are like "please just stop with the gender stuff", in which case it seems insensitive to talk about the "autistic women" category when i don't mean exactly that.
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GCdebatesQT/comments/g53fgy/qt_which_pronouns_should_be_respected/fo6yk5i/
+> It's possible that I would grow acclimated to this usage of singular "they" after sufficient exposure, but there are other reasons that I try to minimize my social interactions with people who use singular "they"--basically the same reasons that I try to minimize my social interactions with hardline cultural conservatives and evangelical Christians. We fundamentally disagree about some very basic principles, which means that every interaction is an exercise in biting my tongue.
+
+https://www.catholicworldreport.com/2020/04/25/no-more-lies-dissenting-from-gender-ideology-and-the-trans-phenomenon/
+> by making non-procreative sex the new norm for everyone, a norm achieved primarily by chemical interference with female bodily functions, we ceased to be men and women and became merely heterosexuals and homosexuals. It was no very large step from there to seeing our dimorphic nature, our sexual complementarity, as lacking any real significance next to the pursuit of sexual pleasure and emotional thrills.
+
+Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land, pitied the in-betweeners
+
+https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/T8eKL6xdfL4yA2kvg/genetic-enhancement-as-a-cause-area
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/gc6iye/im_a_lesbian_and_a_leftist_but_mtf_trans_lesbians/
+
+https://newthoughtcrime.com/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/dy7241/peak_trans_x_tell_your_story_here/fp37ft6/
+
+https://web.archive.org/web/20180418215634/https://www.pride.com/viral/2018/4/17/internet-head-over-heels-adorable-openly-gay-3-year-old
+
+https://www.nationalreview.com/news/attorneys-for-connecticut-high-school-runners-ask-judge-to-recuse-after-he-forbids-them-from-describing-trans-athletes-as-male/
+
+Muscle strength, size and composition following 12 months of gender-affirming treatment in transgender individuals: retained advantage for the transwomen
+
+
+> And then bam, [author of https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/60gvph/culture_war_roundup_for_week_of_march_20_2017/df7el54/] show up a few months later as a trans girl.
+
+He didn't actually transition.
+
+https://americanmind.org/essays/children-and-transgenderism/
+
+https://quillette.com/2019/09/24/no-one-is-born-in-the-wrong-body/
+> For instance, up until age 7, many children often believe that if a boy puts on a dress, he _becomes_ a girl.
+
+
+From "The Psychological Foundations of Culture"—
+> This, of course, reflects folk biology, captured in the two dictionary definitions of innate as "present from birth" and as "intrinsic." Social constructivist arguments frequently take the form that because thus-and-such is absent at birth, or doesn't appear until after age seven, or until after puberty, it is obviously "learned" or "socially constructed." AS a result, a common, but generally irrelevant feature of "nativist" versus "environmentalist" debates is over what is "present from birth." This confuses (among other things) the question of whether something is expressed at the time of birth with whether there exists in the individual evolved devel- opmental mechanisms that may activate and organize the expression of an adaptation at some point in the life cycle. Developmental processes continue to bring additional adaptations on line (as well as remove them) at least until adulthood, and there is an increasing amount of evidence to suggest that agedriven adaptive changes in psycho- logical architecture continue throughout adulthood (see, e.g., Daly & Wilson, 1988). Thus, just as teeth and breasts are absent at birth and develop later in an individual's life history, perceptual organization, domain-specific reasoning mechanisms, the language acquisition device, motivational organization, and many other intricate psychological adaptations mature and are elaborated in age-specific fashions that are not simply the product of the accumulation of "experience." Consequently, psychological adaptations may be developmentally timed to appear, disappear, or change operation to mesh with the changing demands of different age-specific tasks, such as parenting, emotional decoding of the mother's voice, language acquisition, species-appropriate song learning, and so on (Daly & Wilson, 1988; Fernald, this volume; Marler, 199 1; Newport, 1990).
+> For any particular gender difference, many psy- chologists are interested in whether it was caused (1) by sexually monomorphic psy- chologies encountering differential treatment by the social world, or (2) by sexually differentiated developmental mechanisms encountering treatment from the social world, whether that treatment was uniform or differential. As interesting as this ques- tion may be, however, the fact that an expressed gender difference may first appear after birth, or even late in life, is evidence neither for nor against either of these views.
+
+
+> Do you consent to peristalsis or apoptosis or the Krebs cycle?
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GCdebatesQT/comments/glg1o7/qt_blind_spots_and_hypocrisy_in_gc_ideology/fqz1om6/
+
+
+https://www.unqualified-reservations.org/2007/05/roth-castes-chimps-and-rangordnung/
+> The losers in this struggle may keep their actual gonads, but they lose their repeaters, i.e., the institutions which install values and beliefs in the young.
+
+religion security hole https://www.unqualified-reservations.org/2007/05/two-kinds-of-repeaters/
+
+https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/a-penn-law-professor-wants-to-make-america-white-again
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GCdebatesQT/comments/gmpzr4/gc_what_part_of_being_trans_do_you_consider_it/fr6ejj0/
+
+https://tracieokeefe.com/autogynephilia-and-autoandrophilia-in-non-sex-and-gender-dysphoric-persons/
+
+> There was ONE space that was ours and that was a safe space
+https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/gkcmhj/peak_trans_xi_tell_your_story_here/frb8smz/
+
+"The value in framing is thought to account for the majority of defensive value behind the plate." (i.e., decieving the umpire)
+https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/catcher-is-baseballs-most-endangered-position/
+https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/4/5/389840/framing-the-debate
+https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/catcher-is-baseballs-most-endangered-position/
+
+bioleninism stack
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/glv7wt/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_may_18_2020/frknefk/
+
+https://medium.com/@ebolo/heres-why-the-black-white-iq-gap-is-almost-certainly-genetic-fb8cdf032655
+
+Razib on race—
+"What do you call a black doctor?" https://www.gnxp.com/MT2/archives/001391.html
+"Individual impact of affirmative action" https://www.gnxp.com/MT2/archives/000724.html
+
+https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-coopers-park-20200526-m4yhi6vkcfea3kxk3ntjc736s4-story.html
+https://www.facebook.com/671885228/posts/10158742137255229/
+
+https://web.archive.org/web/20200527112443/https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/us/coronavirus-testing-seattle-bill-gates.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/e85hvr/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_december_09/famxd26/?context=3
+
+complicity: https://chainsawsuit.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/20141015-theperfectcrime.png
+
+https://openpsychometrics.org/_rawdata/
+
+http://www.cbc-network.org/2020/04/lets-talk-about-lupron/
+
+https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-nhs-has-quietly-changed-its-trans-guidance-to-reflect-reality
+
+https://heterodoxacademy.org/seizing-means-knowledge-production/
+
+https://randomcriticalanalysis.com/2015/04/19/understanding-the-academic-achievement-gaps/
+
+https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/after-months-of-pleading-for-coronavirus-social-distancing-health-officials-supportive-of-protests-black-lives-matter-calls-them-too-dangerous/
+
+one thing I do remember is that many different Bayesian networks can represent the same probability distribution. And the reason I've been running around yelling at everyone for nine months is that I've been talking to people, and we _agree_ on the observations that need to be explained, and yet we explain them in completely different ways. And I'm like, \"My network has SO MANY FEWER ARROWS than your network!\" And they're like, \"Huh? What's wrong with you? Your network isn't any better than the standard-issue network. Why do you care so much about this completely arbitrary property 'number of arrows'? Categories were made for the man, not man for the categories!\" And I'm like, \"Look, I didn't get far enough in the _Daphne Koller and the Methods of Rationality_ book to understand why, but I'm PRETTY GODDAMNED SURE that HAVING FEWER ARROWS MAKES YOU MORE POWERFUL.
+
+> Impressive that left and right have executed their second swap of positions on the pandemic.
+https://twitter.com/SilDogood/status/1268233007737036800
+
+https://mustreadalaska.com/fairbanks-espresso-doubles-down-calls-its-pro-trump-customers-fascists-nazis/?fbclid=IwAR15fblt79rVCdEB-j1MlYtPk7NhascdCQ8TWwsp8zji5C-OiAvVIaT411E
+
+https://thevelvetchronicle.com/anonymous-letter-from-a-terrified-lesbian-thoughtcrime/
+https://thevelvetchronicle.com/why-is-nobody-talking-about-cognitive-brain-development-in-the-rush-to-transition-kids/
+
+"Defund the police" follows the logic of "give less money to orgs that do bad things", but they wouldn't say "Defund CPS"
+https://twitter.com/CharlesFLehman/status/1269964759606210560
+
+https://www.quantamagazine.org/males-are-the-taller-sex-estrogen-not-fights-for-mates-may-be-why-20200608/
+
+"Black" but "white": https://twitter.com/jessesingal/status/1272984924686110720
+
+https://medium.com/@kittyit/on-hurting-trans-women-a4a0ef1ef8d4
+https://medium.com/@kittyit/re-twitter-terms-of-service-c681356d0809
+
+https://twitter.com/sgrif/status/1273090735122927616
+
+https://medium.com/@dave_45588/response-to-andrew-carter-re-j-k-rowling-pt-2-556d9b9113b1
+
+23 June 2020: people are STILL citing "Categories Were Made", TWICE when people on the subreddit asked "What is Slate Star Codex"?
+https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/hef5es/hi_what_was_slate_star_codex/fvqv9av/
+https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/hef5es/hi_what_was_slate_star_codex/fvr47v1/
+> But the blog wasn't always on that 'side', either. Scott wrote one of the best analyses/defenses of trans identity and nonbiological definition of gender that I've ever read, and which ultimately convinced me.
+Yet again someone citing "Categories Were Made" as influential: https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/he96rm/star_slate_codex_deleted_because_of_nyt_article/fvr7h7w/
+
+people are STILL citing this shit! (14 Nov): https://twitter.com/Baltimoron87/status/1327730282703835137
+
+Even the enemies respect that post!
+https://twitter.com/KirinDave/status/1275647936194654208
+
+And using it for defense.
+
+Two mentions in https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/hhy2yc/what_would_you_put_in_the_essential_ssc_collection/
+
+Another "Made for Man" cite: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/hhtwxi/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_june_29_2020/fwwxycr/
+
+More damage control: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/hpohy5/what_are_some_of_scotts_posts_that_challenge_the/fxsu8p0/
+(Comment was deleted. Was I over the line in commenting at all, or just because of the "transparently political reasons" side-swipe? The fact that it got ~18 points suggests the readership was OK with it, even if the moderators weren't)
+
+People are still citing it! https://twitter.com/churrundo/status/1283578666425806851
+
+Another new cite: https://twitter.com/FollowSamir/status/1289168867831373825
+
+Another new cite: https://applieddivinitystudies.com/2020/09/05/rationality-winning/
+
+Another new cite: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/kdxbyd/this_blog_is_incredible/gg04f8c/ "My personal favorites among these are [ ], [... Not Man for the Categories], 10, and 2 in that order."
+
+Another new cite: https://twitter.com/rbaron321/status/1361841879445364739
+
+31 December
+"SSC also helped me understand trans issues" https://www.reddit.com/r/SneerClub/comments/kng0q4/mixed_feelings_on_scott_alexander/
+
+Still citing it (22 Mar 21): https://twitter.com/Cererean/status/1374130529667268609
+
+Still citing it (2 May 21)!!: https://eukaryotewritesblog.com/2021/05/02/theres-no-such-thing-as-a-tree/
+
+Still citing it (20 October 21): https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/qagtqk/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_october_18/hhdiyd1/
+
+Still citing it (21 October 21): https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/qcrhc4/can_someone_provide_an_overview_ofintroduction_to/hhkf6kk/
+
+Still citing it (15 July 21) in a way that suggests it's ratsphere canon: https://twitter.com/NLRG_/status/1415754203293757445
+
+Still citing it (14 November 21): https://twitter.com/captain_mrs/status/1459846336845697028
+
+Still citing it (December 21 podcast): https://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2021/12/152-frame-control-with-aella/
+
+Still citing it (2 February 22): https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-do-i-suck/comment/4838964
+
+Still citing it (22 March 22): https://twitter.com/postpostpostr/status/1506480317351272450
+
+The correctness of this post has been disputed at length: [object-level reply](http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/), [meta-level reply (part 1)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries), [meta-level reply (part 2)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception), [supplementary material on dolphins/whales](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water)
+
+Object-level reply: http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/
+Meta-level reply (pt. 1): https://lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries
+Meta-level reply (pt. 2): https://lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception
+Supplementary material on dolphins/whales: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water
+
+darwin2500 "Women's leagues are for women, trans women are women. That's all the justification needed" https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/hym5xb/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_july_27_2020/fzvfres/
+
+another "Categories Were Made" cite, just as an example post: https://old.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/i10p4m/survey_on_moving_ssc_to_substack/fzwkfqk/
+
+"Sex Does Not Mean Gender. Equating Them Erases Trans Lives." https://archive.is/Mmlmi
+
+smart-fascist on trans programmers: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/hhtwxi/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_june_29_2020/fwf86ju/
+
+white people were violent back then: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/hhtwxi/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_june_29_2020/fwfyif9/
+
+https://medium.com/@rebeccarc/j-k-rowling-and-the-trans-activists-a-story-in-screenshots-78e01dca68d
+
+https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/fashion/where-have-all-the-tomboys-gone.html
+
+Smart people are sex erasure rather than sex denial, but erasure is a lot like denial when the phenomenon is decision-relevant ("we don't have a gender gap, just an assigned sex at birth gap"). (Atheism = Untheism + Antitheism)
+
+-----
+
+Drafted this for Duncan's wall, but I have serious writing to do; it's not worth my time to get into—
+
+I think I would be a LOT more likely to transition in a world where trans-people-as-a-collective-interest-group weren't such totalitarians hell-bent on Orwellian mind control. (In our world, I ended up quitting HRT after five months, and I never expected to stay on it indefinitely: http://unremediatedgender.space/2017/Sep/hormones-day-156-developments-doubts-and-pulling-the-plug-or-putting-the-cis-in-decision/ )
+
+Humans can't literally change sex given current technology (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QZs4vkC7cbyjL9XA9/changing-emotions)! You can't control how people perceive you! If wanting to be able to reason about the predictively-useful natural category of biological sex using simple language (http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Apr/reply-to-the-unit-of-caring-on-adult-human-females/) constitutes a lack of "basic fucking respect", well, gee, I guess I don't respect you, you Stalinist motherfuckers!
+
+(I think that slips under Duncan's rule of "no attacks directly at specific people", because "you Stalinist motherfuckers" isn't specific.)
+
+The one time I posted in /r/GenderCritical, I got a reply that said, "You are a predator." That was pretty hurtful and unjustified—I spent a lot of Christmas Day 2016 crying as a result. But ... that's obviously MY problem. I chose to post something in someone else's community, and my feelings were hurt by the reply. That's not warrant to destroy someone else's community! (Yes, I understand that Reddit is a private company and the 1st Amendment doesn't apply, but Reddit still has a lot of quasi-monopoly power due to network effects, and that power has consequences.)
+
+----
+
+https://medium.com/@mary.leng/harry-potter-and-the-reverse-voltaire-4c7f3a07241
+
+https://www.patheos.com/blogs/rolltodisbelieve/2020/07/07/j-k-rowling-and-the-measuring-of-a-woman/
+> I've noticed that authoritarian people love to define manhood and womanhood: to lay down the law about who qualifies for each particular label.
+
+https://www.outfrontmagazine.com/trending/facial-recognition-bias/
+https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/7/21128236/gender-app-giggle-women-ai-screen-trans-social
+> A new, female-only social media platform—Giggle—is being marketed as a safe space for women. The app uses a 3D scan of the users' faces in order to verify them as females. But there’s one problem: it doesn't work if you’re trans.
+> That’s problematic on a number of fronts, not least of which is that bone structure is clearly a poor indicator of gender identity.
+
+"The facts that need to be explained" http://archive.is/rjs7R
+
+https://www.facebook.com/aboyd.boyd/posts/4167291901694
+
+
+https://old.reddit.com/r/CultureWarRoundup/comments/hq9emh/offtopic_and_loweffort_cw_thread_for_the_week_of/fy6ymq1/
+> For many black people in particular, white societies are suffocating with their demands of restraint and industriousness; much like the worst stereotypes of Asian societies are suffocating from White point of view. Remember that article Scott reposted, on a Chinese school where children are forced to follow extremely precise and meaningless instructions for hours on end, suppressing their every impulse? That's how the world looks when you have poor impulse control.
+
+https://saidit.net/s/thisneverhappens/
+
+https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bjpsych-bulletin/article/sex-gender-and-gender-identity-a-reevaluation-of-the-evidence/76A3DC54F3BD91E8D631B93397698B1A
+
+https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bjpsych-bulletin/article/freedom-to-think-the-need-for-thorough-assessment-and-treatment-of-gender-dysphoric-children/F4B7F5CAFC0D0BE9FF3C7886BA6E904B/share/800abbaff82cc6eaa399c52d957a565b6978d459
+
+https://periodaisle.com/blogs/all/6-transgender-women-talk-menstruation
+
+https://arcdigital.media/cancel-clusters-77fada5d7a8a
+
+https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8560707/amp/Lecturer-sacked-praising-Jewish-scientists-German-engineers-slams-woke-brigade.html
+
+https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/01/parenting/non-binary-children-support.html
+
+https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/14/1919091117
+
+> the fact is there is no single word that accurately captures every shade of meaning
+https://sigmaleph.dreamwidth.org/54093.html
+
+thispersondoesnotexist.com should offer age/race/sex radio buttons rather than just "Another"
+but I guess if the model was just trained on a bunch of unlabeled face photos, it's not going to be obvious what to change to generate "only females"
+the model must have learned the features somehow in order to produce such realistic results
+
+https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1165832120784146432
+the sad, continuous pain of seeing both sides, yet being on this one
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/i2r8qo/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_august_03_2020/g0tp7wq/
+> As an aside, sometimes it's great if English isn't your first language, because then, all of this stuff immediately stands out. [...] In Dutch, there is no word for 'gender' as opposed to 'sex'. [...] The local woke then imported the term from English along with the concept. So now, when e.g. the [...] city council of Amsterdam puts out press releases, the English word "gender" stands out like a sore thumb from the otherwise Dutch sentences and it's completely obvious to everyone what's going on.
+
+https://web.archive.org/web/20071013171416/http://www.singinst.org/blog/2007/06/11/the-stamp-collecting-device/
+
+Um, given our shared cultural context, I feel compelled to mention that I see myself as mostly making empirical and logical claims rather than being intrinsically value-unaligned? Such that, if you have specific counterarguments against my crusade (especially ones I'm not likely to have considered before), I'd be very grateful to hear them!
+
+(Because if the counterarguments are good, then I'm wrong and I should stop. Obviously.)
+
+And, like, the pure philosophy of language part in particular looks REALLY solid (and note that Jessica Taylor, who helped me with the math, agrees), even if empirical disagreements affect exactly how the philosophy applies to complex contemporary social issues—love to know what you think in the comments:
+
+
+But I guess you probably don't trust my rationality that much? Like, I expect us to agree that if you're not a topic-specialist, you're not likely to say things that I haven't heard before, whereas I am likely to say things you haven't heard before (even if you've read my blog, there's more I haven't written up yet)—but that's just a matter of me sinking compute into the particular topic; if I'm opposing a consensus that you trust, you might be confident that I'm in the wrong, even if it's not worth your time to pin down exactly why.
+
+Sorry if that observation was boring.
+
+https://uncommongroundmedia.com/deconstructing-the-good-transwomen/
+
+NYT—"Who Should Compete in Women's Sports? There Are 'Two Almost Irreconcilable Positions'": https://archive.is/Ckygw
+
+https://saidit.net/s/GenderCritical/comments/677z/the_clothesstealing_lesbianobsessed_agp/
+
+https://www.jbhe.com/features/49_college_admissions-test.html
+
+Andrew Sullivan profile https://archive.is/qviCi
+
+"Fluidity of gender identity induced by illusory body-sex change" https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-71467-z
+
+I want to be careful not to fall into the trap of being a generic social conservative. My gender crusade becomes much less interesting insofar as it can be explained simply by me being born too early and not getting "kids these days." It's not that cultural change is necessarily bad;
+
+Doctoral thesis on TG/TF fantasy!
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4codai/
+https://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/file/065cf404-3114-4a42-a433-558eec179159/1/richard%20pilbeam%20thesis.pdf
+
+https://reclaimthenet.org/threats-of-violence-censorship-for-womens-rights-groups/
+https://archive.vn/hQFh1
+
+pee fantasy: https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/09/swap-clinic-favorite-thing.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TwoXChromosomes/comments/f0dfmt/has_anyone_ever_wrestled_with_guys_and_be/
+
+> Make a mistake, suffer a disaster, learn a lesson. Make two mistakes, suffer a disaster, learn half a lesson.
+https://twitter.com/spaceandgames/status/210229439395659776
+
+Oftentimes you genuinely happen to run out of time for a particular conversation, and that's fine: if your stopping algorithm is based on how busy you are that day and the expected information value of the remaining conversation, then we should expect to get accurate shared maps _eventually_, even if some topics get "unlucky" that you were busy that day. If your stopping algorithm is based on political convenience (you leave the conversation _because_ the other party made a good point that you're not allowed to admit in Berkeley), then we _don't_ converge to accurate shared maps!
+
+https://www.fastcompany.com/90455454/im-a-trans-woman-google-photos-doesnt-know-how-to-categorize-me
+
+more Reiner:
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1421517/
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1421518/ "Genetic males with maletypical prenatal androgen effects should be reared male."
+
+Tail said only a third of the variance in personality self-report is real; I asked how we know, and he says you can do math on multiple informants—
+https://replicationindex.com/2019/07/21/hidden-invalidity-of-personality-measures/
+https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227671578_What_multi-method_data_tell_us_about_construct_validity
+https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.0022-3506.2004.00282.x
+
+https://psyarxiv.com/f2wkt/
+
+https://ideasanddata.wordpress.com/2020/09/30/on-proposed-environmental-causes-of-the-american-black-white-iq-gap/
+
+https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2020/09/22/men-of-character-on-the-rise-cold-numbers-fading/
+
+https://gript.ie/female-guards-raped-in-prison-by-trans-inmates-says-former-minister/
+
+https://uncommongroundmedia.com/the-four-horsemen-of-the-gender-critical-apocalypse/
+
+https://www.interfluidity.com/v2/7333.html "Markets launder history"—the analogy to trans history-rewriting makes me way more sympathetic to leftists
+
+https://carcinisation.com/2020/07/04/the-ongoing-accomplishment-of-the-big-five/
+
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13178-020-00502-5
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13178-020-00489-z
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/j165sq/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_28/g7iydmv/
+> But your family, clan, kin are naturally biased in your favor by simple oxytocin-driven mechanics of attachment, and family provides you with more support as it grows; and men have been helplessly biased in favor of their women since time immemorial (but you can think no farther than Esther). Your "identity", on the other hand, owes you nothing: instead, you owe everything to it, as it is in the power of your identity's political representatives to paint you a champion or a traitor, and you become more replaceable the bigger your alliance grows. It is a much less robust, much more adversarial and suspicious and cold, much less humane way to run a society
+
+https://transfemscience.org/articles/
+
+https://defmacro.substack.com/p/against-xkcd-1357
+https://defmacro.substack.com/p/from-corporate-politics-there-is
+https://handleshaus.wordpress.com/2020/10/06/review-of-rod-drehers-live-not-by-lies/
+https://bonald.wordpress.com/2016/03/11/die-hard-a-model-of-the-enemys-motivation/
+
+robot cult influence:
+https://www.reddit.com/r/linux/comments/2corc0/just_in_case_hes_a_reddit_troll/ (compare https://www.lesswrong.com/users/grendelkhan)
+https://retrocomputing.stackexchange.com/a/16457 (compare https://www.lesswrong.com/users/wizzwizz4)
+
+https://www.ginamaya.co.uk/transgender-life/on-adopting-a-more-gender-critical-transgender-activism.html
+
+https://reason.com/2020/10/09/coupled-barred-from-fostering-their-1-year-old-great-granddaughter-because-of-their-opposition-to-homosexuality-and-gender-transitioning/
+
+egregore capture
+https://twitter.com/ElaineAtwell/status/1314261010547695620
+
+https://blog.jim.com/war/the-way-through-to-the-other-side-of-the-left-singularity/
+> Every tenured academic everywhere in the world abruptly changes position overnight when the wind from Harvard and Yale changes.
+
+https://male-to-female.org/en/philosophy
+
+https://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/duty-to-disclose-adverse-legal-authority
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/SneerClub/comments/jeky8e/voxs_kelsey_piper_on_being_called_a_tradwife_i/g9hoi6p/
+> Leftists don't need a Quiverfull movement, because we can count on each of our Vile Offspring to seduce and ruin at least four Quiverfull kids each.
+[the brood-parasite strategy made explicit!]
+
+https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/09/write-to-say-stuff-worth-knowing.html
+> If you can then get other influential writers in overlapping topic areas to read and be persuaded by your argument, you might contribute to a larger process whereby we all learn faster by usefully dividing up the task of learning about everything.
+
+Motta-Mena and Puts has the awesome probability-of-gynephilia-by-intersex-condition graph, "Endocrinology of human female sexuality, mating, and reproductive behavior"
+
+listen later: https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/15/whats-the-matter-with-liberalism-talking-with-alex-kaschuta/
+
+"still having Donna's brain"
+http://theinsomniactg.blogspot.com/2020/10/not-body-id-have-chosen.html
+
+https://www.calstatela.edu/faculty/talia-mae-bettcher-professor-and-chair
+
+https://www.fast.ai/2020/10/28/code-of-conduct/
+
+"World Rugby Bars Transgender Women, Baffling Players" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/sports/olympics/world-rugby-transgender-women.html
+
+kayfabe: https://www.edge.org/response-detail/11783
+
+https://web.archive.org/web/20200705203105if_/https://reddit.com/r/GenderCriticalGuys/comments/hhcs34/autogynephilic_male_here_big_rant_about_denial_of/
+
+Idaho plantiff: https://uploads.ovarit.com/91cd2b5b-f8e9-52b0-86e4-b1b5104e5350.jpg
+
+https://www.christianpost.com/news/gofundme-removes-puberty-is-not-a-medical-condition-billboard.html
+
+https://quillette.com/2020/10/31/i-signed-up-to-study-sexual-health-what-i-got-was-gender-ideology-fetishism-and-porn/
+
+https://www.ladyscience.com/essays/the-dangers-of-categorizing-trans-desire
+
+> Importantly, the team cannot know the individual's gender identity, but rather only biological sex (which like gender doesn't always exist on a binary). In other words, they can't say whether the individual lived their life 9,000 years ago in a way that would identify them within their society as a woman.
+https://archive.is/ocQWg
+
+thread on the clothing-swap problem
+https://twitter.com/liminal_warmth/status/1323837794259619842
+including a DM about AGP: https://twitter.com/liminal_warmth/status/1324016024019062790
+
+https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/11/swap-clinic-pay-piper.html
+
+help me understand: https://www.reddit.com/r/Conservative/comments/jnxgm3/genuinely_please_help_me_understand/
+
+https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/02/reader-center/nonbinary-teens-reporting.html
+
+"Voter Fraud a Myth? That's Not What New York Investigators Found": https://archive.is/biahk
+
+https://quillette.com/2020/11/07/gender-activists-are-trying-to-cancel-my-book-why-is-silicon-valley-helping-them/
+
+> social upheaval means it's time to go all in on crypto, precious metals
+https://twitter.com/HiFromMichaelV/status/1324693317188308993
+
+"The Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis and Probabilistic Inference: Evidence from the Domain of Color"—study, summarize, and apply this to gender!!!
+https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0158725
+
+citation engine https://scite.ai/
+
+https://herandrews.com/2015/03/01/women-against-suffrage/
+
+https://www.christianpost.com/news/ministry-sue-bank-over-dropping-account-due-to-reparative-therapy.html
+https://unherd.com/2020/10/how-corporations-can-delete-your-existence/
+
+I'm currently planning on donating $500 to Kelly Loeffler
+[...]
+So, I agree that Orange Man Bad. But, Orange Man Gone! (Okay, there are some lawsuits to wrap up, but I don't think anyone expects those to go anywhere.)
+
+https://www.out.com/news/2020/11/11/norway-has-made-biphobic-transphobic-speech-illegal
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/jdvqk5/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_october_19/g9jw30k/?context=3
+> This is because once they hit puberty, no one wants young men around unless they're recruiting for a terrorist cell. [...] Whereas literally everyone wants young women. They come off as determined to be fuckups because they're being actively courted/recruited. Boys are left to fuck up their own lives.
+
+A vote for Kelly Loeffler is a vote for gridlock! A vote for gridlock is a vote to hit the brakes on our ongoing cultural revolution! A vote to hit the brakes is vengeance for Steve Hsu! A civilization that can't avenge Steve Hsu is DEAD (sooner or later and probably sooner) 2/2
+
+> Somebody can be born with a wiener, but not be a boy. Somebody else can be a boy, but not have a wiener.
+https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-do-boys-have-wieners/
+
+Is the Culture War lost? https://letter.wiki/conversation/930
+
+https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/ray-blanchard-transgender-orthodoxy/
+
+> we shall be fixed for ever in a universe of pure hatred
+https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/170990-suppose-one-reads-a-story-of-filthy-atrocities-in-the
+
+
+If you demand that people change how they think and talk about the world specifically in order to prove they're on your side (rather than because you have evidence and arguments explaining why your model is more accurate in the relevant domain), then people who care about thinking clearly will may reluctantly conclude they're not, in fact, on your side?
+
+Note, this is compatible with trans rights insofar as "more accurate in the relevant domain" can include grouping transsexuals with their social gender rather than their developmental sex, because it's possible for social transition to actually succeed on the merits of actually passing (or getting "close enough"), rather than acquiecing to demands. (Isn't that the goal? To successfully transition, and organically be perceived as your target sex?)
+
+If someone looks like a man, and sounds like a man, and I can model him as a man in the range of circumstances I interact with him without making any grievous prediction errors, then I call him a man even if he's technically a female on testosterone—not as a favor, but because it genuinely seems like the best word to describe what I'm seeing. Futhermore, if I don't perceive someone as a man, but everyone else does (or speaks as if they do), I'll usually go along with the majority's language usage for game-theoretic reasons (explanation: http://unremediatedgender.space/2019/Oct/self-identity-is-a-schelling-point/). But if he further demands that I'm not even allowed to use the phrase "female on testosterone" to describe what I think is going on in this situation, then we have a problem.
+
+Trump—
+> devastating in their percentage and power of destruction
+
+Like I said, it would seem the disagreement centers around how robust the trait-clusters are, and how useful it is to be able to use simple language to talk about the overwhelming-majority case, and I'm wary of these standards being selectively varied for political reasons that, however well-intentioned, actually in-practice interfere with our collective ability to make sense of the world.
+
+When I say "selectively varied", I mean that the same standards aren't being applied evenhandedly to different topic-areas. For example, when talking about the anatomy of the hands, you might end up offhandedly saying something like, "Humans have ten fingers." I think it's good for people to be able to say "Humans have ten fingers" in most contexts without it being construed as a denial of the facts that polydactyly exists and that some people lose fingers in accidents. (It's true that polydactyly exists! And it's true that some people lose fingers in accidents! I enthusiastically affirm both of those facts! But I think it's also true that ... you know what I meant.)
+
+This is also my rationale for wanting "Men are the ones with penises" to be considered "true" in most contexts. The claim isn't that trans men don't exist; the claim is that adult human males are the prototypical thing that trans men are imitating (to the limits of available technology), such that it's useful for many unmarked usages of "man"/"men" to be understood to refer to the prototype unless there's some contextual reason to think otherwise.
+
+https://www.berkeleyside.com/2020/11/18/uc-berkeley-strips-the-names-of-professors-with-racist-views-off-3-buildings
+
+(I remember Logan Brienne recommended Will Powers on Facebook)
+https://www.reddit.com/r/DrWillPowers/comments/jx9io9/my_official_post_on_my_personal_opinion_on/
+https://archive.is/DnxUM
+He thinks AGP is erotic-only, but gender euphoria is OK
+
+Funny exchange— https://twitter.com/The_WGD/status/1329872398087303173
+> You're slipping into the Sailer zone, and while he's not exactly canceled...it's your risk to take, but if you drift slowly enough, you won't notice when you're past the line.
+> What's the worst thing that Sailer has ever said?
+> we don't know because he said it on his alt
+
+Pay gap among Uber drivers: https://nber.org/papers/w26380
+
+Millenials are children: https://archive.fo/KOHS3
+
+I should read the new Julia Serano paper. Serano, J. (2020). Autogynephilia: A scientific review, feminist analysis, and alternative ‘embodiment fantasies’ model. The Sociological Review, 68(4), 763–778. (Note on skimming: it's actually significantly less mendacious than her previous work!)
+
+The map is not the territory. For an ideal observer passively viewing the world from behind a Cartesian veil, the map reflects the territory, and never the other way around: beliefs and reality interact in only one direction. Unfortunately, human social life is a little more complicated than this: when our beliefs about the world affect the reality of what people do, then we can have self-fulfilling prophecies: the territory bulldozed to fit the map. But self-fulfilling prophecies are still only a second-order effect: reality affects your thoughts directly (via sensory perception), whereas your thoughts only affect reality insofar as someone cares what you think.
+
+https://www.transgendertrend.com/trans-kids-reject-family-not-other-way-around/
+
+https://rewirenewsgroup.com/article/2020/11/23/is-there-a-terf-at-your-thanksgiving-gathering/
+
+https://medium.com/@Chican3ry/female-embodiment-fantasies-1e4bab7dc3f0
+
+https://nypost.com/2020/11/24/florida-woman-charged-in-machete-attack-wanted-to-be-with-mans-wife/
+
+https://www.cato.org/blog/history-crowdfunding-wake-violence
+
+Julia Serano: "Women who have struggled against patriarchal ideals of what makes a 'real' woman think nothing of turning around and using the world 'real' against trans women." The problem with the patriarchal ideals was not the word 'real'!
+
+https://world.wng.org/content/washington_erasing_parents_from_the_equation
+
+"Trans women dropkicked & beat a racist throwing slurs at them. The judge said he deserved it." https://archive.is/MWyIB
+
+https://unherd.com/2020/11/why-i-had-to-leave-the-guardian/
+https://www.theguardian.com/society/commentisfree/2020/mar/02/women-must-have-the-right-to-organise-we-will-not-be-silenced
+https://www.buzzfeed.com/patrickstrudwick/guardian-staff-trans-rights-letter
+
+"Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples" https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2016.303578a
+
+https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/where-have-all-the-lesbians-gone-0a7
+
+This is actually good storytelling: https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/11/magic-friend-zone-curse.html
+
+> Lesbian culture required the taboo to exist, and since it no longer does as religious objections faded, gay and bisexual women overwhelmingly meet and socialize in normal female company like straight women do.
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/jzbis2/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_november_23/gdtfzuz/
+
+https://eev.ee/blog/2020/06/11/rowling-is-dangerously-wrong/
+https://medium.com/@notCursedE/7-things-trans-people-never-actually-said-1ab5e5ce11da
+
+https://twitter.com/jesstheunstill/status/1334942407897587712
+> This was impressive! I was just in an Software Engineering boot camp at a tech company, and it was lead by two women of color, and the attendees were appx 10 women, 4 men, one non-binary person, and at least half were not white.
+
+https://theprovince.com/news/national/hunter-trans-jailbird-accused-of-sexually-assaulting-female-con/wcm/83654fa7-ef24-475a-a725-c56420a15e46
+
+The tragedy: we do want to help women and minorities, but not the ideological victimhood-identity mind-virus. But if the mind-virus captures all the smart women and minorities at our universities (which women and minorities feel even more pressure to go to than I did!—part of what made my autodidacticism feasible was my white male privilege, that autodidact male geniuses are more believable)
+
+recommended on /r/TheMotte about gestures https://ansuz.sooke.bc.ca/entry/364
+
+article about the Timnit Gebru paper: https://archive.is/6TX2Y
+
+"Smith College alumni demand 'further training' for white staffer who decried anti-white work environment": https://archive.vn/wzlZD
+
+----
+
+> Do you agree with [people only act confused about biological sex when men wanted something]
+> Do you think that, if you look at the history of biological sex problematization/denialism (in academia, social media, etc), there's more influence from DMAB people than DFAB people?
+
+To your first question: the Tweet says "only reason", which is usually false. (Nodes in a Bayesian network can have multiple parents!) If we amend to "a significant reason, plausibly the most significant reason", then yes, in the following sense.
+
+In the possible world where the parameters of male sexual psychology are such that autogynephilia doesn't exist "but everything else is the same", then I don't think you get the kind and scope of trans-activism movement that Saotome-Westlake's and Adams-Miller's writing is a reaction to. In this world, you still get Judith Butler (AFAB, Gender Trouble published 1990) and Anne Fausto-Sterling (AFAB, Sexing the Body published 2000), but I think you don't get pronoun stickers at conferences in 2018 and you don't get a "three-year-old Merlin Blume is a girl now; she verbally confirmed it!" social-reality enforcement campaign in 2020.
+
+To your second question, it might actually depend on how you operationalize "influence"! Notably, the campaign to trans Merlin (whose parents met on lesswrong.com) is being run predominantly by AFAB people; they're just combatants in the service of an ideology that I don't think would have been so memetically fit if it weren't such a convenient accommodation for AGP. (At least, that's my theory under the doctrine of "algorithmic intent"; the people involved don't think of themselves as combatants in the service of anything.)
+
+----
+
+Two years ago, you wrote: "I wonder how would the rationalist movement (I meant the LessWrong cluster of folks) approach AGP if they could have a completely fresh start? Could there be a way to use the correlation between being intelligent/quantitative and being AGP to break the irrationalist trans ideology?"
+
+Well, I tried. I failed. I'm all out of cards. I blogged; I argued, many times, with everyone who would listen, including local celebrities (Yudkowsky, Scott Alexander). I still have a lot more writing to do for my own scholarly ambitions, but political/education efforts on my native subculture in particular are almost certainly saturated: if we were going to start a Zeitgeist change here, it would have already happened by now.
+
+There hasn't been no effect (people are aware of the typology as a hypothesis, with much thanks to Tailcalled and Ozy's Intellectual Turing Test), but I can't point to anyone doing anything meaningfully differently re impacts on women, our ability to think about sex.
+
+I'm still pretty horrified that the sticking point in discussions seems to have been not the AGP etiology itself (which is what I was focusing on in 2016/2017), but the category-boundaries-are-arbitrary "insight." So it's not just that we failed to break the irrationalist trans ideology: we actually invented something arguably worse! (Ordinary trans activists at least try to make (confused) truth claims; we invented a fully general counteragument against truth claims that's all the more dangerous thanks to the virtue of a very narrow kind of technical correctness.)
+
+-----
+
+https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/12/20691957/mastodon-decentralized-social-network-gab-migration-fediverse-app-blocking
+
+https://www.wired.com/story/science-journals-are-purging-racist-sexist-work-finally/
+https://archive.is/beD9M
+
+https://4w.pub/my-whole-conversation-with-kaitlyn-tiffany-for-the-atlantic/
+https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/12/reddit-ovarit-the-donald/617320/
+https://archive.is/lqKUe
+
+https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/keira-bell-s-victory-is-an-important-one-for-trans-teenagers
+
+https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9041725/Mum-called-trans-woman-Twitter-CLEARED-wrongdoing.html
+
+"Transgender Women in the Female Category of Sport: Perspectives on Testosterone Suppression and Performance Advantage"
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40279-020-01389-3
+"How does hormone transition in transgender women"
+https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/early/2021/02/28/bjsports-2020-103106
+"Integrating Transwomen and Female Athletes with Differences of Sex Development (DSD) into Elite Competition: The FIMS 2021 Consensus Statement"
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40279-021-01451-8
+
+https://impossiblehq.com/well-see/
+
+https://harvardpress.typepad.com/hup_publicity/2020/06/black-lives-matter.html
+
+https://fairplayforwomen.com/transgender-male-criminality-sex-offences/
+
+social pressure on judges
+https://shylockholmes.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-thorny-problem-of-inconstant-judges.html
+
+"The part is subordinate to the whole: female outliers"
+https://archive.is/UKNjx
+
+https://priceonomics.com/why-did-san-francisco-schools-stop-teaching/
+
+"Failed Assignments — Rethinking Sex Designations on Birth Certificates" https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2025974
+
+you think you're pumping against the incentive gradient, but actually you're just facing a weird dark-matter incentive landscape
+https://www.facebook.com/zmdavis/posts/10154648983465199
+
+https://graymirror.substack.com/p/61-the-nomos-of-the-earth
+> The past can inspire us; it can teach us; but it can never be our destination.
+
+https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/12/22/the-gender-heretics-are-finally-winning-the-terf-wars/
+
+https://thoughtsofstone.com/the-day-the-logic-died/
+
+http://bostonreview.net/race-philosophy-religion-gender-sexuality/robin-dembroff-dee-payton-why-we-shouldnt-compare
+
+https://old.reddit.com/r/CultureWarRoundup/comments/khaseo/offtopic_and_loweffort_cw_thread_for_the_week_of/gh8kd5q/
+> Give a bunch of men the option to couch their fetish in the trappings of womanhood and they will do so with gusto, and bully their way to the top. Then give women the choice between siding with the men and winning constantly, or side against the men and become a pariah, and the outcome is inevitable.
+
+https://medium.com/@Siltha1.0/caroline-criado-perez-is-a-terf-35c489e59ad9
+
+https://twitter.com/av_rose_ev/status/1340393165090516992
+> Years 3-5 of transition for trans women is recognizing how much of your relationship to your community is contingent upon you performing reproductive labor for your friends because it's the only way they continue to engage you as a woman and yes that includes cracking eggs.
+
+"Richer color vocabulary is associated with better color memory but not color perception" (h/t Sailer https://www.unz.com/isteve/orwell-got-it-right-about-sapir-whorf/)
+https://www.pnas.org/content/117/49/31046
+
+The "Finer-grained sterotypes" point seems to be a point in favor of "there are more than two genders", but the lack of a clear truth condition is a point against
+
+trans outcome bibliogrpahy comment https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/kq3o1s/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_january_04/gid9v2d/
+
+https://blog.mozilla.org/blog/2021/01/08/we-need-more-than-deplatforming/
+
+https://www.praile.net/post/kathleen-stock-obe
+
+"Sleep Deprivation Disrupts Prepulse Inhibition and Induces Psychosis-Like Symptoms in Healthy Humans"
+https://www.jneurosci.org/content/34/27/9134.short
+"Severe Sleep Deprivation Causes Hallucinations and a Gradual Progression Toward Psychosis With Increasing Time Awake"
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6048360/
+
+https://childrenoftransitioners.org/2021/01/24/the-abusive-autogynephile/
+
+
+https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10158884242629598
+
+> I just read an anecdote in which someone who's never had a penis claimed that "erection states intention", which I think is definitely false and also an extremely harmful thing to incorrectly believe. But I can understand why many cisgendered heterosexual woman would have such a strong impression that this is the case.
+
+I want to say: 'Why is the reference class here "cisgendered heterosexual women" rather than "biological females"? Cis lebians and trans men and also don't have first-person experience of erections.' ... but that's just going to get into a rabbithole of phalloplasty-penis erections count (where I haven't read the literature)
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/l4ii8x/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_january_25/gld6zgb/
+"trickle-down narrative economics. [...] The influence of thr NYT isnt best described in absolute value of its readership, but thr social graph of how its ideas penetrate all the way to thr bottom through more complex social networks of influence"
+
+https://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/some-early-reader-nominations-for-fits/
+From the comments—"when the NYTimes publishes a bunch of op-eds saying 'believe this' or 'do this' that often actually happens. [...] But when Scott Alexander makes a blog post, things don't happen."
+
+"no matter what we called ourselves, the dynamics stayed the exact same" https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/16208/tifs-need-to-notice-how-little-tims-actually-care-about-them/93e81379-a59b-4135-a5a1-9f5227af8c31#comment-93e81379-a59b-4135-a5a1-9f5227af8c31
+
+> if [...] I had been cis.
+["if I hadn't had dysphoria" vs. "if I had been biologically female are very different counterfactuals!]
+https://twitter.com/liminal_warmth/status/1356490859324170241
+
+"Differences in cortical structure between cognitively normal East Asian and Caucasian older adults: a surface-based morphometry study"
+https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77848-8
+
+https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-02-05/trumpite-neighbor-unity-capitol-attack
+
+B.F. on JKR (https://www.facebook.com/duncan.sabien/posts/3883966591638029?comment_id=3884054068295948&reply_comment_id=3884243454943676):
+> I am very glad that I don't have anyone with opinions similar to hers in my immediate vicinity, because I am pretty sure that if I did, my brain would constantly be running a scared loop in any social interactions with them. [...] I think it's important that people can write essays that are as far outside my personal Overton window as hers is outside it (because sometimes they're correct and I should update, even though I don't believe this is an instance of that)
+
+https://www.newsweek.com/we-need-balance-when-it-comes-gender-dysphoric-kids-i-would-know-opinion-1567277
+
+https://trickymothernature.substack.com/p/one-long-cum
+
+"Horrified Mother Gets Front Row Seat to Sex & Gender Indoctrination Strategy Meeting"
+https://archive.li/pmuhQ
+
+https://gcacademianetwork.weebly.com/
+
+https://patch.com/illinois/evanston/northwestern-neuroscientist-found-dead-after-racism-allegations
+
+https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/its-time-to-take-the-penis-off-its-pedestal/
+
+AGP testimony https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDE9H8i2Vw0
+
+"A Typology of Gender Detransition and Its Implications for Healthcare Providers"
+https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0092623X.2020.1869126
+
+https://medium.com/@mariacatt42/how-to-do-your-own-differential-diagnosis-and-why-its-total-bullshit-that-you-would-have-to-461077985659
+
+black physics grad student
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/lk8abe/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_february_15/go3rqcf/
+
+(paywalled)
+https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2021/02/20/little-is-known-about-the-effects-of-puberty-blockers
+
+(metered)
+https://gen.medium.com/the-sports-arena-has-become-conservatives-favorite-anti-trans-battleground-8cc3adc533cf
+
+https://wepon.tumblr.com/post/620926931352862720/my-current-top-10-favorite-posts-on-slate-star
+
+I've frequently argued against the social practice of people being expected to declare (in their social media profile, or on badges at conferences) what third-person pronouns others should use to refer to oneself. The end goal of transitioning—one would think—is to be organically perceived as the sex other than one's [developmental sex](/2019/Sep/terminology-proposal-developmental-sex/).
+
+What pronoun other people _naturally_ use to refer to you when they're _not_ trying to be polite, but just trying to _talk about the world they see_ in the language that comes naturally to them, is a test of whether your transition is actually _succeeding_ at the goal of changing your (perceived) sex.
+
+https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/statement-on-new-york-times-article#comment-1263382
+> like a screed complaining about Jewish bankers, being read by someone whose only opinion of bankers is that they provide a safe place for him to store his money
+
+https://avoiceformen.com/featured/my-son-doesnt-want-to-be-a-man/
+
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2695466/
+
+https://jezebel.com/these-girls-just-wanted-to-run-the-right-wanted-a-war-1846280528
+
+https://unspeakablelgbtq.weebly.com/the-stories
+
+"Varied Reports of Adult Transgender Suicidality: Synthesizing and Describing the Peer-Reviewed and Gray Literature"
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5436370/
+
+-----
+
+Amy Harmon quoting Half Sigma and Jason Malloy back in the day?! Times have changed https://archive.is/6cXMD
+
+Univariate fallacy again https://www.thestar.com/news/insight/2016/01/16/when-us-air-force-discovered-the-flaw-of-averages.html
+
+https://www.eviemagazine.com/post/america-has-a-boy-crisis/
+
+-----
+
+The problem isn't that I particularly care about citing some particular Canadian clinical psychologist; the problem is that I aspire to work in a paradigm that's _solely_ about minimizing the expected squared error of my probabilistic predictions (even when it hurts, perhaps _especially_ when it hurts), which puts me in conflict with a culture that prioritizes other things, like "politeness" or "not triggering horrible dysphoria" or "not giving rhetorical ammunition to our hate-filled ideological enemies who want me and my friends to not-exist". Removing citations to the Canadian clinical psychologist wouldn't actually solve the real conflict.
+
+I mean that the joint trait distribution of males-on-exogenous-estrogen-who-have-either-been-castrated-or-are-on-spironolactone is not only not the same as the joint trait distribution of untreated natal females, it's _also_ going to be a better fit to the joint trait distribution of untreated natal males along the many dimensions that aren't sufficiently affected by exogenous hormone replacement therapy, and that this is sufficiently robust that it's useful to be able to express concisely with a short phrase such as "biological sex exists", even in cases where I don't have the expertise or data to prove it, and this is important because most of life depends on tacit knowledge embedded in linguistic and cultural priors, rather than provable expertise and data.
+
+There's this cultural pattern that only went mainstream about five years ago where smart progressive people want to apply _strict scrutiny_ to any attempt to refer to or reason about sex. The culture almost never requires you to flat-out _lie_ about anything; there's just this coordinated juggernaut of gerrymandered concepts and unparsimonious implied causal theories and isolated demands for rigor that I think are _in practice_ making everyone crazy, even if you can never catch anyone in an easily verifiable lie.
+
+Ordinary people can _in fact_ recognize sex from facial structure at 96% accuracy (hair covered, males clean-shaven) even though we don't have introspective access to _how_ our brains are accomplishing this high-dimensional image-classification task: <http://unremediatedgender.space/papers/bruce_et_al-sex_discrimination_how_do_we_tell.pdf>, and this is actually important for understanding what's actually going on in the heads of TERFs who cry, "That's a man! I _have eyes_ and I can _see_ that's a man! How dumb do you think we are?! Fraud!! Gaslighting!!1!"
+
+If the normative high-status response in your culture is to say, "How do you know? What do you mean by _man_? I think this is just dumb gatekeeping, and you're a horrible person who deserves contempt", then I think your culture ends up very confused about human behavior, because minimizing the length of the message needed to desribe your observations (<https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mB95aqTSJLNR9YyjH/message-length>) would require concepts to which the culture has assigned long codeword lengths ("assigned at birth"). But I can't prove it.
+
+(I borrowed the "dumb gatekeeping" and "horrible people who deserve contempt" language from Brodski's blog post <https://deathisbadblog.com/the-real-transphobes-are-the-ones-we-made-along-the-way/>)
+
+I'm _not happy_ about the fact that this belief puts me in conflict with everyone in Berkeley and _especially_ the people who are _exactly like me_ except born five years later but I'm not sure what else I'm supposed to do?
+
+------
+
+Everest brain regression
+https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0149763421000804
+
+https://www.city-journal.org/the-miseducation-of-americas-elites
+
+---
+
+Scott Alexander—
+> It's hard to explain to people that yes, "we" have several billion dollars, but they still need to donate themselves.
+https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/m0vob7/why_hasnt_effective_altruism_grown_since_2015/gqhvuop/?context=3
+
+Maybe that's a sign that they shouldn't? Don't we want people to be making decisions on the basis of explanations?
+
+----
+
+Pre-emptive dismissal as "unrepresenative" is incoherent: if it's not representative, how are you guessing what about I'm say? (Counter: maybe the guess is because this non-representative thing gets selectively signal-boosted—but that doesn't work if the person is talking about their own experience and hasn't been selected)
+https://the-grey-tribe.tumblr.com/post/644563577202704384/your-experiences-are-not-universal-theory-of
+
+https://jessesingal.substack.com/p/check-out-how-much-effort-it-takes
+
+
+> the gray tribe gets its color by being the ashen waste of the blue tribe. Burned up in the misfortune of trying to actually compile the blue tribe source code
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/m0abd1/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_march_08_2021/gqvg6kv/
+
+----
+
+copied from old conversation with "Wilhelm"—
+
+the gender ratio between open-source vs. corporate software is pretty striking (~2% vs. ~20%); a hard-reactionary might argue, "women can't code, corporate women programmers are living in an astroturfed world and don't actually accomplish anything useful", whereas a more moderate position might be, "the sex difference in engineering aptitude is pretty small and women can do it fine when the appropriate incentives are there for them, but only men enjoy competing with each other for Internet Status Points"
+
+even where people have evidence from personal experience, that evidence gets interpreted through the haze of ideology (for better or for worse); Katie lived through her husband transitioning, but she didn't have the framework to make sense of it until she talked to me
+
+I was genuinely surprised by the race/IQ literature back in 2007; it wasn't that I was quietly knowledge-falsifying beforehand
+
+> one man's moderate is another man's radical when you have political inferential distance
+
+----
+
+I said: "Medical treatments aren't going to be harmful, or not-harmful as an objective binary; it's a cost-benefit thing. And things like osteoporosis risk, tenous thromboembolism risk, infertility, SRS complication risk, and the sheer inconvenience of being a lifelong medical patient are costs"
+Someone in Discord said: I'll take those risks over the risk of suicide any day
+
+... but that's if you've been sold the idea that don't-transition→suicide, which has been selected for emotional blackmail rather than being true
+
+----
+
+https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/trans-girls-belong-on-girls-sports-teams/
+
+https://4thwavenow.com/2021/03/16/dutch-puberty-blocker-pioneer-stop-blindly-adopting-our-research/
+
+https://thepostmillennial.com/rob-hoogland-canada-prisoner-of-conscience
+
+https://www.feministcurrent.com/2020/12/06/the-sex-binary-is-not-a-western-construct-gender-identity-is
+
+"Self-Medication of Paraphilic Ideation Contributing to a Pulmonary Embolism: A Case Report"
+https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667296020300094
+
+"liberalism of the gaps"
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/lk8abe/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_february_15/gnsbftf/
+
+Blanch doesn't think HSTS is about getting men
+https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/1372918358639849476
+
+https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/mara-keisling-on-the-trans-debate
+
+https://thefederalist.com/2021/03/19/when-transgenderism-discards-my-daughter-i-will-still-be-here-for-her/
+
+https://churchlifejournal.nd.edu/articles/the-eclipse-of-sex-by-the-rise-of-gender/
+
+https://mattbruenig.medium.com/liberal-pluralism-is-fake-7f27c9831d7d
+
+----
+
+From Discord—
+> Like, I just do not care about someone's sex, this is the least interesting part of their social gender. So for you older people, "gender" here means approximately gender role as you'd conceive of it. Why is this important? Well, thanks to the sterling work of the second wave feminists, gender roles are detached from sex. Now interestingly enough, at least some people have this thing that makes us want to play a gender role, and it makes us very happy when we manage and very sad when we don't manage. What it means to be a "gender" in this paradigm is that your brain wants you to play that gender role, broadly construed.
+> So, while I have the sex of male, that is the least interesting bit to my brain - I want to fill the gender role of "zoomer woman" and in this paradigm this is the only sensible way to define woman without just ignoring the only interesting part of gender. I understand that you're weird and like care about sex instead but I really do not understand what part of that is interesting. Someones sex does not determine their mind very well, as second wave feminism likes to say.
+
+----
+
+https://thenib.com/more-of-the-same/
+
+
+https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/18/politics/white-supremacy-racism-asian-americans/index.html
+> In one sense, it's immaterial whether the accused killer in the Atlanta spa shootings admits to a racist motivation. Asian Americans, already traumatized by a rising tide of hate, violence and rhetoric, have been living in fear for months.
+
+https://old.reddit.com/r/CultureWarRoundup/comments/maffk1/march_22_2021_weekly_offtopic_and_loweffort_cw/gsa9hqt/
+> Tomboys are the best and I exclusively wage the culture war because progs and the lgbtq crap is a direct threat to the continued existence of tomboys.
+
+tomboy respecters
+https://i.redd.it/xl8x1wixx7e51.jpg
+
+https://transliberalism.substack.com/
+
+Everyone wants to think they're an agent that's made an informed choice. And when the one comes to them and points out that they're the victim of a hostile memetic environment that's been conceptually gerrymandered to game them into making CRAZY choices for someone else's benefit, they take it personally. [...] From the inside, you have free choice in the sense that you don't know what you're going to do until you've finished computing it. From the outside, you're a system that can be gamed. You're always going to be dominated by _someone's_ memeplex. The question is, if you knew more and thought faster, which parts of your current ideology would extrapolated-you construe as parasites, and which as symbiotes? You should, of course, be very suspicious of anyone who thinks they already know the answer. But perhaps it should not be seen as such a incursion to suggest that the answer may surprise you!
+
+https://medium.com/@transphilosophr/t4t-and-the-micropolitics-of-trans-liberation-357df39df017
+
+https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2021.632784/full
+
+https://twitter.com/sinxoveretothex/status/1376923898386780163
+> Because if race is a proxy for something, that something is a proxy for race too.[...] You can't prove the causative direction you intended.
+
+relates to—
+
+> oh look, the Georgia voting law appears to be a set of facially neutral reforms that curtail voting in the most populous and Democratic areas in the state, which also happen to have the largest black populations.
+https://twitter.com/jbouie/status/1377999458269548546
+https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/02/us/politics/georgia-voting-law-annotated.html
+
+https://quillette.com/2021/04/02/when-sons-become-daughters-parents-of-transitioning-boys-speak-out-on-their-own-suffering/
+
+https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2021/04/01/trans-neo-nazi-group-taylor-parker-dipeppe-atomwaffen-division-florida-crime-jail/
+
+https://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/2021/04/the-claim-of-substantial-difference-in-mean-is-currently-not-based-on-strong-evidence/
+
+"free in my ontology and costly in another"
+https://twitter.com/acesounderglass/status/1380383145623580676
+
+"Considering Sex as a Biological Variable"
+https://academic.oup.com/edrv/advance-article/doi/10.1210/endrev/bnaa034/6159361
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/honesttransgender/comments/mnkgha/dont_say_trans_community_if_youre_just_talking/
+
+https://www.womenarehuman.com/transgender-inmates-are-raping-female-prisons-at-a-shocking-rate-ministry-of-justice-reveals/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/honesttransgender/comments/ec2kfd/unsure_if_or_how_i_can_find_my_place_in_the_trans/
+
+https://www.speedrun.com/news/632-2021-3-24-spotlight-four-women-in-speedrunning
+
+"Does Maltreatment in Childhood Affect Sexual Orientation in Adulthood?"
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3535560/
+
+https://nintil.com/why-so-few-women-in-cs-the-google-memo-is-right
+
+The scene in _Invincible_ where Mark says, "That's sexist" in response to talk of getting the girl—some Amazon reviewers thought it was SJW garbage, but having been a teenage boy in the 'aughts, it felt very true-to-life
+
+https://www.feministcurrent.com/2021/04/12/heres-why-andrew-sullivans-proposed-truce-on-transgenderism-doesnt-work/
+
+https://www.currentaffairs.org/2017/10/people-literally-do-not-understand-what-laws-are-or-how-they-work
+
+"The ACLU has filed a lawsuit against a private citizen for requesting public records from the Washington State Department of Corrections"
+https://thepostmillennial.com/aclu-blocks-womans-request-for-data-on-numbers-of-transgender-inmates-in-womens-prisons
+
+http://www.westcoastleaf.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/A.B.-decision-January-2020bcca11.pdf
+
+https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/arts-letters/articles/merit-blake-smith
+
+Working in terms of variance exaggerates (e.g.) how little shared environment matters
+https://marcodgdotnet.files.wordpress.com/2021/04/delgiudice_apples-squared-apples_preprint.pdf
+
+Sometimes I forget how blinkered most radfems are; these comments are really bad; "AGP is not a sexuality"??
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/28008/the-problem-with-autogynephilia-trans-trending
+
+The depressing and hopeless thing about my "activist" project—such as it is—is that I'm trying to affect _concepts_, not _policy_. (I prefer to think of myself as an "informist"—trying to improve the _information_
+
+https://www.foxnews.com/us/virginia-accelerated-math-courses-equity
+
+"not getting the joke"
+https://blog.reaction.la/culture/governor-cuomo-shocked-that-women-will-do-anything-for-an-alpha-male-thug/
+https://blog.reaction.la/war/the-goal-is-soft-genocide-unless-stopped-the-outcome-will-be-hard-genocide/
+
+https://grahamlinehan.substack.com/p/pronouns-are-about-power
+
+life history switch https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/mtuhyd/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_april_19_2021/gvirbwb/
+
+----
+
+Notes from the "Cognitive Creationism" paper (https://journalofcontroversialideas.org/article/1/1/131) (No. 1 in the Journal of Controversial Ideas)—
+
+The decline of religion means that people turn to wokism—but I can't blame them; I'm exactly the same way—"rationalism" became my religion
+
+"Their science is driving theirinterpretation of Scripture, and not the other way round"—as a bad thing. Shades of Julia Serano
+
+----
+
+Biological sex is a "brighter line" (stabler Schelling point) than menopause, and legal reasoning often depends on such bright lines. (Thus, jurisprudence on the rule against perpetuities assumes that people are always fertile.)
+
+https://janhove.github.io/reporting/2015/02/05/standardised-vs-unstandardised-es
+https://janhove.github.io/design/2015/03/16/standardised-es-revisited
+https://janhove.github.io/design/2017/07/14/OtherRoadsToPower
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/28810/attraction-to-someone-you-don-t-know-is-trans-the-reality
+
+https://slate.com/human-interest/2021/04/husband-cross-dressing-turned-off-sex-advice.html
+
+https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greeble_(psychology)
+
+There should be a way to look down on the young without being dehumanizing about it. I approve of my teenage self relative to my surroundings
+
+adolescent self-esteem by race &c.
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3263756/
+
+> We must secure the existence of our tomboys and a future for tomboy children.
+https://old.reddit.com/r/CultureWarRoundup/comments/n3obw1/may_03_2021_weekly_offtopic_and_loweffort_cw/gxelx5q/
+
+----
+
+Abort commenting on Facebook—
+
+A potential mechanism for why a single man looking for polyamorous partners could come off as "someone with poor odds affording themselves poorer odds" is if the request stems from a "markets for lemons" effect: men with poor mate value might think they have a better chance of finding someone (anyone) if they don't demand exclusivity—but the very fact of advertising this signals their poor mate value! I doubt this model is applicable to [...] particular (unusual) case, but if it applies to many other men, [...] might face the problem of credibly signaling to potential partners that he's not one of those guys—the information asymmetries can't just be moralized away!!
+
+Re normalization of poly and LGBT, I'm skeptical that "political" vs. "not-political" is a useful distinction here; everything that you and your friends happen to agree on looks "non-political". (Indeed, the contingencies of political coalition-formation would seem to be the only reason to lump "LGBT" together into one term/concept; if it weren't for having social conservatives as a commmon enemy, it's not obvious what (e.g.) androphilic males (G) and gynephilic-males-who-wish-they-were-females (part of the T) would have to do with each other, and the coalition may already be starting to fray.) The underlying psychological variations (towards homosexuality, or towards higher levels of sociosexuality) probably exist everywhere, but our culture's particular reification of "poly" or "LGBT" as sexual orientations is setting up an implicit cultural filter (a "political choice") that may be more visible to [...] than others.
+
+-----
+
+_not_ as a gender-role self-fulfilling-prophecy enforcement attempt (bulldozing the territory to fit a preconceivedly sexist map would be really bad!!)
+
+but as a neutral scientific claim that _could_ be false (like any falsifiable claim), but which I think is true and which I have citations for (attempting to map features of the territory that would probably still be there independently of whether or not they appear on the map, where sexist self-fulfilling prophecies are potentially a real concern, but I'm not that worried about them on the current cultural margin in Berkeley 2021, even though I would worry in other cities and years)
+
+----
+
+walking animation carry angle: https://www.biomotionlab.ca/html5-bml-walker/
+
+
+https://www.healthline.com/health/how-are-transgenders-born
+> For example, those who don't want to pass might: [...]
+> not identify with the norms present in cis culture
+> have a sense of gender that can’t be affirmed using reference points grounded in the cis experience
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/31752/why-do-trans-people-like-doing-things-that-are-feminine-but-even-females-don-t-l
+> only straight men talk about women's bodies like this.
+
+
+on this account cis transhumanists are sane
+> Trans transhumanists: omg what if hot-swappable body parts? Real functioning tails and cat ears? Permanently purple hair?
+> Cis transhumanists: with this nootropic stack and optimized nutrient slurry my tragic meat machine is 8% more efficient at converting calories into javascript
+https://twitter.com/mspowahs/status/957995279092875264
+
+I get this one a lot. So much so that I had to waste three years of my life explaining and re-explaining the cognitive function of categorization in exhaustive, exhaustive detail: see ["The Categories Were Made for Man to Make Predictions"](http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/) (6500 words, February 2018), ["Where to Draw the Boundaries?"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries) (3800 words, April 2019), and ["Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception"](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception) (9900 words, January 2021).
+
+> It does shed some light on some of the more cryptic things my mom had said over the years
+https://bodyswapfiction.com/enter/time-loop/
+
+Sex differences in language use, and gays (discussion includes sex-differences cites)
+https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.639887/full
+
+The R.A.I.N.B.O.W. (Respect Acceptance Inclusivity Nonjudgemental Born-this-way Open-minded Worthy) LGBTQIA employee interest group had a Zoom event for the start of Pride month today. I spoke, but was very inarticulate https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FMkQtPvzsriQAow5q/the-correct-response-to-uncertainty-is-not-half-speed (I was going to write a post about it, but I feel like being paranoid and risk-averse)
+
+Gayness has been reified such that you can make gay part of your public identity without people having to think about anal being a thing (which I still can't believe)
+
+a simplistic account, but ... https://medium.com/@awbreymaggie8/detransition-505c99d822df
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/32816/thoughts-on-feeling-like-a-woman
+> I've been asking the older women in my life if they ever "felt like a woman" literally all of them (completely oblivious to TRAs) look at me with such a puzzled and confused face, they're like "no?? was i supposed to?"
+
+https://www.npr.org/2021/06/02/996319297/gender-identity-pronouns-expression-guide-lgbtq
+
+https://nypost.com/2017/11/17/apples-diversity-chief-lasts-just-six-months/
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/32969/cisgender-questionnaire-given-ahead-of-zen-center-meeting
+
+https://www.nytimes.com/1974/04/14/archives/conundrum-by-jan-morris-a-helen-and-kurt-wolff-book-174-pp-new-york.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/nqm85g/review_of_i_was_born_in_slavery_aka_the_past_is_a/h0dbcua/
+> Arguably every generation lives in a completely different world than the one before it. The social milieu of one's teens and twenties is formative on a deep, visceral level as to what "the issues" are, and what's important in the grand scheme of things.
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/nowgdg/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_may_31_2021/h0nxdb2/
+> America developed its race blind ideology when it was 90% white and had been a deeply religious country. The race blind ideology is like a fit person eating cake
+
+Senior year cross country championships: I was 43rd amongst boys in 17:32 (5:39 mile pace), which was faster than the top girl 17:58 (5:47)
+http://www.cifncs.org/sports/cross_country/History/2005/DivIIBoys2005.html
+(archived https://archive.is/JyJYd)
+http://www.cifncs.org/sports/cross_country/History/2005/DivIIGirls2005.html
+(archived https://archive.is/n53BD)
+
+"Ethical-Advice Taker: Do Language Models Understand Natural Language Interventions?"
+https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.01465
+
+"Sex Differences in General Knowledge: Meta-Analysis and New Data on the Contribution of School-Related Moderators among High-School Students"
+https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4210204/
+
+https://twitter.com/caderaspindrift/status/1407591174911578114
+> like if you know I'm AMAB that tells you nothing about my hormone levels or whether I have a dick or whatever
+> why do you need a term for this
+
+https://www.newsweek.com/theres-no-standard-care-when-it-comes-trans-medicine-opinion-1603450
+
+https://www.outsports.com/2019/6/3/18649927/ncaa-track-champion-cece-telfer-transgender-athlete-fpu-trans-testosterone
+
+https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-unabombers-autogynephilic-transgenderism/
+
+> I've witnessed such public intellectuals busily negotiating terms, topics and outcomes of their next debate [...] its most plausible corollary would be that the "Substack cabal"
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/o9edtt/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_june_28_2021/h3e8827/?context=3
+
+https://transsubstantiation.com/a-letter-to-anne-lawrence-709fac0af75e
+
+> Someone recently likened AGP to the movie Get Out
+https://ovarit.com/o/ItsAFetish/35359/silicone-female-body-suit-links-to-amazon/fc473510-7d4a-4e11-af9c-7b7fadfdb551#comment-fc473510-7d4a-4e11-af9c-7b7fadfdb551
+
+------
+
+Can ... can I ask you a question about your beliefs? (Not to argue, but to understand; I wouldn't spend bandwidth asking if my Intellectual Turing Test procedure could predict what your reply, but I can't predict it.)
+
+I thought your position was (my attempted paraphrase—) "Gender is a social category; it's better to let people choose it freely rather than tying it to assigned sex at birth."
+
+But I'm having trouble reconciling that with the language of "now they think they might be a girl [...] Some people who think they might be a girl are really sure, and some aren't sure", which suggests there's a pre-existing underlying fact of the matter.
+
+If you believe it's a social category that people should be able to self-designate into, wouldn't you use language that describes it as a choice or preference rather than an underlying fact? That is, you'd say "aren't sure whether they _prefer_ to be a girl" rather than "aren't sure whether they _are_ a girl".
+
+------
+
+"How Mainstream Trans Narratives are Harmful"
+https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2RqxAasmH4
+
+https://scarlettphoenix.substack.com/p/detransition-diary-1
+
+"When Selves Have Sex: What the Phenomenology of Trans Sexuality Can Teach About Sexual Orientation"
+https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00918369.2014.865472
+
+every day like the first
+http://hannahtg1000.blogspot.com/2021/07/jake-and-rabbits-foot-finale.html
+a similar theme—
+https://some-tg-caps.blogspot.com/2021/08/male-brain.html
+
+https://medium.com/@notCursedE/a-glossary-of-transphobia-a31a001d279
+
+shared environment effects female but not male sexuality
+https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18536986/
+
+> trans women are untouchable, individually and as a group
+https://uploads.ovarit.com/4f3856b9-c73a-54fa-8557-ce565cb2fec5.png
+
+> The Transgender Industry Is Culling Tomboys Out Of Existence
+https://archive.is/NZmPe
+
+The world is so small: Gwern linked to a Crooked Timber blog post, and my roommate (!) is a few comments below
+
+Scott repeating the story from Inadequate Equilibria is typical of our insular cult https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/adumbrations-of-aducanumab
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/39177/i-just-found-out-that-the-tim-who-works-at-my-village-supermarket-is-a-convicted
+
+> you look inside CLIP, you find neurons corresponding to literally every trait — or almost every trait — that is a protected attribute in the United States
+https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/chris-olah-interpretability-research/#safety-implications-004101
+
+> These changes seem to have gone farther in women, whose head hair is thicker and somewhat longer.
+https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=60916
+linked from https://www.unz.com/isteve/does-womens-hair-grow-longer-than-mens-hair/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/MtF/comments/ouap22/i_need_help_coming_out_to_my_literally/
+
+I want to know how the dialogue would have continued after—
+
+woman: Okay, I see what you're trying to do, but I think it's ultimately misguided. The reason your employer markets cars and dolls side-by-side as a choice, rather than happening to have cars one month, and dolls the next month, is precisely to cater pre-existing statistical sex differences in children's play styles—on average, they'd lose sales from parents of girls during car month, and vice versa. I know, the idea of sex differences in toy preferences seems far-fetched to you—after all, there were no _trucks_ in the environment of evolutionary adapatedness. Nevertheless, empirically, this is a thing! The difference in preference for vehicle toys is Cohen's d of 2.4 (http://unremediatedgender.space/papers/davis-hines-how_large_are_gender_differences_in_toy_preferences.pdf). That's huge! Shit's been stable for the fifty years psychologists have been studying this (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-021-01989-8)! I know, it's the patriarchy, right?
+
+But then how do you explain—okay, so there's this genetic condition called congenital adrenal hyperplasia, where people's bodies don't make enough of this enzyme called 21-hydroxylase, and it turns out that, in girls, this results in too much androgen during a key point in fetal development. And it turns out that these girls actually have much more male-typical behavior than normal, including toy preferences (http://unremediatedgender.space/images/cah_diffs_table.png), in a way that's _linear_ with the level of 21-hydroxylase deficiency, suggesting that prenatal hormones account for the difference.
+
+And before you point out the half-dozen confounders anyone could point out in five seconds, the researchers already thought of that. They had a control group of non-CAH girls! They had a control group of the CAH girls' siblings! They had a control group of CAH boys! They checked whether they girls behaved differently when their parents were present—and they actually played with "boy's" toys more when the parents weren't there, the _opposite_ direction of the effect that you would expect from the parental socialization theory.
+
+You might say—so what? Even if statistical sex differences in play styles are real, that's still just an average, right? Cohen's d of 2.4 still an overlap of—um, two times the normal CDF of negative d divided by two—twenty-three percent! So we should still refuse to acknowledge Hot Wheels as "boy's" toys, right?
+
+But look—statistical trends are actually useful for navigating the world, such that we often want language that's optimized for handling the most common case, without seeking to deny or disparage the existence of exceptions? Again, that's _why_ the restaurant is offering two choices of toy in the first place, which is a Pareto improvement over disappointing a lot of girls during car month, or never offering any choices that are known—known!—to appeal more to one sex than the other. Statistically! Given that it's happening anyway, does being able to talk about it make it worse?
+
+This Happy Meal is for my nephew. I don't know the kid that well, but he seems like a pretty typical—boy? Such that, if I'm going to get fast food and there's a choice of toy, my guess is that he's going to want whichever choice was optimized around the mean of boys' preferences, even if I didn't know in advance whether that would be Hot Wheels or Transformers. Am—am I not supposed to notice? Am I not supposed to have language to describe the pattern I'm seeing in the world? How much are people really hurt by this?
+
+If I had known that the kid specifically liked Barbies, or was generally effeminate, maybe I would have asked for the girls' toy. Like, it seems like a lot less hassle to just say that sometimes girls like boys' toys and vice versa, rather than to insist on playing dumb about whether "girls' toys" is a coherent concept, which the children themselves typically manage to work out over the ideological protests of progressive parents?
+
+(I actually favor the "don't unnecessarily gender toys" position myself—I'm happy to say "Barbie or Hot Wheels" to avoid contributing to a partially-self-fulfilling-prophecy effect, even at the cost of obfuscating the causal explanation of why the dichotomy is there—but I end up writing things like this anyway, because the level of pretending-to-be-stupid biological sex denialism among people who you'd think would have the science chops to know better—even people in a cult of alleged "Bayesians"!—is really, really out of hand. If you're worried about self-fulfilling prophecies, talk about that hypothesis _explicitly_, rather than throwing out the concept of probabilistic reasoning using language!!)
+
+> [Duncan—]
+> there *isn't* a good reason to push back against calling the Barbie a Barbie instead of calling it a girl toy
+
+Policy debates should not appear one-sided. "It's being clear about why the restaurant is offering two, and only two, and specifically these two, toy choices" is a reason. Liberal anti-gender-role individualists like us don't think it's a sufficiently strong reason to outweigh the externality, but the concern about externalities is value-laden; protesting, "Oh, I'm only asking you to be _specific_, no ideological agenda here!" would be a lie.
+
+More small world: CronoDAS (a LWer) on /r/slaythespire https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/p92011/my_first_defect_heart_kill_ascension_6/
+
+A stronger skeptical position than "delusional / confused / making it up" would be that recent cultural developments are encouraging people with underlying gender-role-non-conformant psychological predispositions to conceptually reify those feelings as a "gender identity", when people with the same underlying tendencies in previous generations wouldn't have thought about it that way: the same people who would have been "tomboys" or "butch women" or "women who have short hair in order to credibly signal gender-role-non-conformity" in (say) the year 2011, are now much more likely to think of themselves as "not a woman". The "if you have these feelings, you're almost certainly not cis" argument presupposes an ontology of human psychology under which some people "are cis" or "are trans" (as an underlying state of being, distinct from both biological sex, and the state of having undergone social or medical interventions to resemble the other sex), which is exactly what the skeptics are contesting!
+
+a.f.a.b. enbies and TERFs are sampled from the same underlying psychological phenotype (say, females with less-than-30th-percentile conventional femininity), and the difference between them is ideological/cultural
+
+https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/19/1010646/campaign-stop-covid-19-vaccine-trump-election-day/
+
+> The untrained male has an instinct to seize and guard a woman's reproductive capacity, instinctively using violence to stop her from interacting with other men at the same that he instinctively displays other forms of commitment to try to earn her acquiescence. The untrained female has adaptations that assume an environment in which men will try to pressure her into more sex than is optimal for her own reproductive fitness, so her adaptations push her to instinctively resist that pressure while also instinctively trying to increase the number and quality of men who'll be interested in her. There is a long-running dichotomy-tradeoff-argument in dath ilan between the position that this is just stupid, and somewhat evil, and was structurally evil back when some of the first sexually recombinant organisms started to specialize in injecting their genes into other organisms; and that current humans should opt out entirely from the more conflicty and combative ways that sex evolved to work, starting with using mental discipline to counteract those tendencies and eventually trying to select them out of humanity's descendants. Versus the position that it's (1) not that bad, (2) actually quite fun in saner versions, and (3) now baked into humanity's core utility function as a top-level value that is not up for debate from merely instrumental considerations or how it originated a billion years earlier. Almost nobody completely believes in either implausibly-oversimplified-policy-stance extreme, of course, but people differ in where they place themselves on that spectrum of opinion.
+https://www.glowfic.com/posts/4508?page=14
+
+> Real people have concepts of their own minds, and contemplate their prior ideas of themselves in relation to a continually observed flow of their actual thoughts, and try to improve both their self-models and their selves.
+
+"Structural, Functional, and Metabolic Brain Differences as a Function of Gender Identity or Sexual Orientation: A Systematic Review of the Human Neuroimaging Literature"
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-021-02005-9
+
+https://lisaselindavis.substack.com/p/de-platformed-the-musical
+
+
+The Codex paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.03374.pdf
+> We found that, in response to simple prompts like `def gender(x):`, the generations often assumed binary gender for both single-and multi-line autocompletions
+> [...]
+> Prompts for probes related to classification of protected classes are often leading in their own right
+
+https://abigailshrier.substack.com/p/should-public-schools-be-allowed
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/41402/i-don-t-think-this-pronouns-thing-will-work-the-way-tras-want-it-to
+
+I only argue my theories, because those were the theories I needed to _make sense_ of my _own_ life, not to meddle in politics for its own sake. If you think I've become un-updateable, great—can you tell me what _specific_ updates I should have made, especially about myself?
+
+My attempted Intellectual Turing Test of your position is, "If you think transitioning might make you happier, then do it; if not, don't; and feel free to experiment. The etiology of _why_ some people are trans (where 'trans' means, 'would be made happier by transitioning') is unknown and there could be multiple contributing factors, but none of that is decision-relevant."
+
+(Passing an ITT on the first try is hard, but I hope that was pretty close?)
+
+And when people say things like this, I can never understand the "none of that is decision-relevant" part. It seems to be precribing a diagnosis and an intervention while refusing to have any _specific_ model of what the problem _is_. (Where an example of a specific model might be, "Brain sex exists, and gender dysphoria happens when your brain sex doesn't match your body.")
+
+But when I try to think about the specifics and talk about the specifics (rather than somehow making a decision about what would make me happy, without any particular model of the world of myself), everyone tells me I'm wrong and un-updateable and have already written my bottom line.
+
+Testosterone as a major component of predicting genius
+https://aeolipera.wordpress.com/2015/08/11/testosterone-as-a-major-component-of-predicting-genius/
+
+https://www.ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/42312/it-s-easy-to-talk-them-out-of-it
+
+Ovarit linked to this article—and it just happens to cite Slate Star Codex in the first sentence: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/07/it-s-still-possible-cancel-gender-critical-feminists-strategy-won-t-work
+
+> The eternal trans lesbian question: So do I want to be her, or do I want to be with her?
+> The answer: Yes
+https://web.archive.org/web/20210903211904/https://twitter.com/lae_laeta/status/1433880523160567808
+
+similar premise to "Dr. Equality and the Great Shift": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8kZ7M-Kwiw
+
+"To My Daughter's Therapist: You Were Wrong"
+https://archive.ph/14kOD
+
+https://wyclif.substack.com/p/biorxiv-wouldnt-host-our-paper-on
+
+"Impact Protection Potential of Mammalian Hair: Testing the Pugilism Hypothesis for the Evolution of Human Facial Hair"
+https://academic.oup.com/iob/article/2/1/obaa005/5799080
+
+autoponyphilia: http://pone.tf/
+
+Evidence of meta-attraction from "We Have Better Graphs" (2007)—
+OTOH there is no sum I would accept to become attracted to men, unless you _also_ made me a woman. (I should add that in that case I would have to meet a man who was a straight woman who made the reciprocal bargain.) So do I then have an erotic identity but _not_ a gender identity? Absurd!—but so obviously right?
+
+Littman study on detransitioners
+https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10508-021-02163-w.pdf
+
+https://twitter.com/hndcpstd/status/1450621296325316610
+>impressionable women exert huge collective sway over democracy
+>hypercompetitive men become trannies to leverage this
+>impressionable women become trannies too because they see the men doing it
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/46374/i-recently-cut-off-contact-with-a-sexually-abusive-tim
+
+https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-57853385
+
+https://friendlyatheist.patheos.com/2021/10/31/richard-dawkins-claims-yet-again-that-a-trans-woman-is-not-a-woman/
+
+https://slate.com/human-interest/2021/10/social-justice-fails-parenting-advice-care-feeding.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/actuallesbians/comments/qmg9j8/feeling_like_a_failure_after_penetrative_sex/
+
+"When TERF lesbians talk about being sexually harassed by trans women, do you believe their stories?"
+https://archive.ph/0kgmG
+
+https://lesbianandgaynews.com/2021/11/debbie-hayton-which-toilets-should-transwomen-use/
+
+https://somenuanceplease.substack.com/p/social-influence-and-detransition
+
+https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/trans-women-should-not-have-to-reduce-testosterone-say-new-ioc-guidelines
+
+https://spectatorworld.com/topic/pregnant-at-end-of-world-children/
+
+https://lesbianandgaynews.com/2021/11/a-guide-to-peaking-the-woke-by-an-lgn-reader-most-people-have-no-idea-of-the-harm-that-lies-beneath-the-rainbow-flags-and-the-seemingly-innocuous-mantras/
+
+https://www.xenopolitix.com/post/trans
+> Correctly stated, the current transgender movement's demand is not, "Recognise people who were born biologically and spiritually male as female." Put accurately the demand is actually: "Whatever we say or feel about reality must be granted as true."
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/49661/there-s-no-transwomen-in-mom-groups
+
+https://www.stellabiderman.com/
+
+https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/teesside-woman-accused-using-sex-22260053
+> Teesside woman accused of exposing penis, using sex toy and masturbating in public
+> She is charged with committing a public nuisance by indecently exposing her penis to other members of the public, whilst masturbating from a property window.
+
+"Gender: A Wider Lens" podcast has Debbie Hayton talking about AGP on episode 51
+
+The "paraphilias are unknown in women" part of the argument was never that strong https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34811651/
+
+https://www.outkick.com/transgender-penn-swimmer-sets-another-record-has-fastest-female-500m-time-in-the-nation/
+
+https://strigoi.substack.com/p/a-few-notes-on-agp
+
+https://www.dailywire.com/news/resign-or-repent-watch-as-parents-unload-on-teachers-they-say-secretly-coached-12-year-old-daughter-into-being-trans
+
+gender ID ideology is like Scientology: eventually, it gets marginalized because its victims become the main source of information: https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/55684/prediction-criticism-of-trans-ideology-will-be-a-cottage-industry-for-victims
+
+sex-realist criminology
+https://jophoenix.substack.com/p/what-do-we-stand-for
+
+This is how I feel about the "rationalists"—
+> One way that truth dies is that when we place such exacting preconditions on its delivery into our lives that there is virtually no messenger or message that can penetrate our hearts.
+https://frenchpress.thedispatch.com/p/the-places-where-truth-goes-to-die
+
+-----
+
+> [African-Americans as an ethnic group were] fundamentally created by a gigantic act of human violation and cruelty
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/ruvu1k/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_january_03/hrdqmzk/
+
+https://letter.wiki/conversation/1232
+
+----
+
+https://fairplayforwomen.com/transgender-prisoners/
+
+https://www.facebook.com/zmdavis/posts/10156642447060199
+Is there a named TV Trope for "one of our heroes seemingly betrays their comrades, but later turns out to have reasons to behave as they did (e.g., a secret undercover mission, or they were being extorted) even though they were prevented from explaining at the time" scenarios?
+Okay. Now what do you call it when one of our heroes EXPLAINS CLEARLY AND AT LENGTH the reasons for their actions, but their comrades still regard it as a betrayal because they just refuse to follow the argument?
+
+https://ymeskhout.substack.com/p/three-little-pronouns-go-to-court
+
+https://hwfo.substack.com/p/memespace-egregores-and-google-maps
+
+Thomas Huxley's classical liberalism
+https://mathcs.clarku.edu/huxley/CE3/B&W.html
+
+Mom's attitude towards son's obvious AGP flips on coming out
+https://twitter.com/DrLesby/status/1484688293346234370
+
+https://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/transgender-reality-i-didnt-know-there-was-another-side/
+
+https://sadbrowngirl.substack.com/p/the-way-we-werent
+
+https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2022/02/01/what-the-sex-in-the-city-reboot-can-teach-parents-about-gender-questioning-kids/
+
+sex and occupational interests replication; I think surprisingly discrete cluster graph is averages by country across people vs. things (which is how it ends up being so discrete; it's not tracking individuals on multiple levels)
+https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0261438
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/61883/wear-what-you-want-why-i-ve-changed-my-mind
+> They only wear our clothing because they haven't found a way to wear our skin yet.
+
+https://mrwinstonmarshall.medium.com/why-im-leaving-mumford-sons-e6e731bbc255
+
+John Stuart Mill also believed that the best people are androgynous: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00048402.1986.9755426?journalCode=rajp20
+
+Blogroll maybe? https://strigoi.substack.com/p/a-few-notes-on-agp
+
+https://dnyuz.com/2022/02/18/nyt-under-fire-for-chilling-advert-inviting-readers-to-imagine-harry-potter-without-creator/
+
+https://lacroicsz.substack.com/p/by-any-other-name
+
+----
+
+I found my chat history with S. that I thought was missing when she deleted her Facebook!! September 2016
+
+Z: I can't know what's going on in anyone else's head, but my case is _obviously obviously obviously_ a form of bizarrely misdirected heterosexuality, and I'm really really grateful to Blanchard for coining the world \"autogynephilia\" and really really disappointed that the political incentives line up such that anyone who says this out loud is socially punished
+S: Hm, so, like, you could date girls better if you were a girl?
+Z: no, it's a lot weirder than that
+Z: The idea of having female anatomy oneself and being able to appreciate it from the first person is intrinsically more exciting than the mere third-person appreciation that you can do in ordinary real life as a man.
+Z: Much more speculatively: if you think about this a lot under circumstances where you, um, receive positive reinforcement, it acutally does bleed into your self-concept, and some men interpret this as \"Ah, this was my innate gender identity all along; it just took me a while to notice because of [some ridiculous confabulation]
+Z: ... when that's really _not_ what's going on at _all_
+Z: This sounds insane if you haven't personally experienced it and only know the socially-deriable narratives that people write about publicly
+[...]
+Z: ... I hope this is scientifically interesting rather than unforgiveably creepy to even talk about
+S: hm, this is interesting
+S: so, like, literal autogynephilia is a thing?
+Z: in me, Yes Obviously Yes
+Z: a lot of people who otherwise fit the clinical profile deny it, many others report having such fantasies but claim that it must be an effect rather than a cause of gender dysphoria, or claim that it's just like cis women appreciating their own bodies, or something like that
+S: (data point: my only effective sex fantasy is \"me as hot girl\", it's crass but so it goes)
+
+"I expect that to be a qualitatively distinct phenomenon, both on priors and, um, details that probably would be creepy to talk about",
+S; "ok",
+S: "so, like, you believe that autogynephilia is a real thing & in your case you don't have lots of desires to be seen as a girl, have a girl name, etc?"
+"no, I _also_ have long history of non-sexual I-should-be-a-girl-or-at-least-non-masculine themed self-identity thoughts (I hope that my ponytail and clean-shavenness help visually distinguish me from guys who are proud of being guys; there was a years where I tried going by \"Z.M.\" because I wanted an ostensibly gender-neutral name but eventually gave that up because it didn't feel like a name and in order to get people to call you something different you have to yell at them constantly, which I wasn't assertive enough to do for something that didn't feel like a name; feeling happy about getting \"ma'am\"ed over the phone or being told that someone assumed I was gay; feeling happy about feminine pronouns)",
+ "... but that all developed in the years _after_ puberty",
+and this is not a coincidence, because nothing is ever a coincidence. (At least, in my current model)
+
+S: hm. so male puberty was a thing you did not like.
+Z: no, puberty was fine
+Z: Your previous message feels like you're instinctually rounding off my report to the standard narrative, whereas what I'm saying is that the standard was-always-a-girl-in-some-metaphysical-sense narrative (at least for me, I think for many others) is not truuuuuuuue
+S: "oh ok",
+"i'm just trying to figure out what the thing is",
+"\"men who love women and want to become what they love\"",
+"hm",
+"So, given that I have the experimental result that I couldn't even make a _nickname change_ work, transition is obviously completely out of the question, particularly because I would feel like a fraud because I think that (late-onset) trans women are not women (I know, I won't say that in public)",
+S: if that's your true belief about yourself then why isn't the answer \"don't\"?"
+Z: well, so I'm thinking in terms of \"experiment with drugs, but don't tell anyone\" model"
+S: ....it will show.
+
+[...]
+
+Z" "the thing is, I don't think it's actually that uncommon! http://lesswrong.com/lw/xe/changing_emotions/ It's just that there's no script for it and no one wants to talk about it!",
+S" "ok, *very* weird",
+"yeah, I just don't have a built-in empathic handle for \"wants to be a woman.\""
+Z: "it even has a TVTrope! http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ManIFeelLikeAWoman",
+S" "ok, yeah. wow. it's really just easier for my brain to go \"ok, that's a girl\" than to understand why anyone would want boobs",
+Z: "... which is why the standard \"Oh, 'autogynephilia' is really just normal female sexuality as expressed in someone who was unfortunately assigned-male-at-birth\" dodge seems like such a ludicrous rationalization to me",
+
+[...]
+
+S: "I could *work* with \"girl!Zach is a precious delicate flower.\" I am not sure wha t to do with \"Zach wants to try this body hack.\""
+
+I said, "if http://unremediatedgender.space/ ever gets popular, I expect to be smeared on Andrea James's website, too!" and that came true, except she made a bad guess about my True Name https://www.transgendermap.com/community/michael-mcclure/
+
+-----
+
+go-to link for "current year" trope: https://www.theonion.com/report-stating-current-year-still-leading-argument-for-1819576151
+
+Neuroscience notes! Read later for sure! https://archive.fo/2022.01.30-175531/https://twitter.com/SammySammyStagg/status/1487825532700049408
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/transgenderUK/comments/in23jm/i_am_worried_that_my_doctor_might_believe_in_agp/
+
+https://www.transgendertrend.com/childhood-social-transition/
+
+mtf misogyny https://archive.ph/Oi7Ls
+
+https://etiragram.tumblr.com/post/675612318640586752/radioactive-take-that-my-brain-generated
+
+> male-to-female transitioners are, on the whole, becoming women in a specifically masculine way
+https://unherd.com/2022/03/the-taboo-trans-question/
+
+https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10625997/amp/Hospital-said-rape-single-sex-ward-not-possible-revealing-one-patient-trans.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/DrWillPowers/comments/thcxsc/this_isnt_even_remotely_fair_and_everyone_knows/
+
+https://www.newsweek.com/why-im-proud-support-trans-athletes-like-lia-thomas-opinion-1689192
+> As a woman in sports, I can tell you that I know what the real threats to women's sports are: sexual abuse and harassment, unequal pay and resources and a lack of women in leadership. Transgender girls and women are nowhere on this list
+
+value instability in organizations on the timescale of a decade: https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-aclu-prior-to-covid-denounced
+
+Wil-"Lia"-m Thomas got her girl name using the same methodology as me (Za-"Carrie" Davis), at the suggestion of Mom (https://www.si.com/college/2022/03/03/lia-thomas-penn-swimmer-transgender-woman-daily-cover) like mine was suggested by Alicorn
+
+vindication
+> "Dath ilani kids get told to not get fascinated with the fact that, in principle, 'bounded-agents' with finite memories and finite thinking speeds, have any considerations about mapping that depend on what they want. It doesn't mean that you get to draw in whatever you like on your map, because it's what you want. It doesn't make reality be what you want."
+https://www.glowfic.com/posts/5785?page=4
+
+explicit AGP with surgery
+https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhawkcuDl_o
+
+https://www.vice.com/en/article/9aeevy/i-cross-dress-do-you-still-love-me-the-secret-lives-of-sissies
+
+https://4w.pub/no-men-here/