-On the Argumentative Form "Super-proton Things Tend to Come in Varieties"
-✓ Reply to Ozymandias on Fully Consensual Gender
-"I Tell Myself to Let the Story End"; Or, A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning
+- Start Over
+- Fake Deeply
+- Beyond the Binary
+
+_ Reply to Scott Alexander on Autogenderphilia
+_ Hrunkner Unnerby and the Shallowness of Progress
+
+_ If Clarity Seems Like Death to Them (April 2019–January 2021)
+_ On the Public Anti-Epistemology of dath ilan
+_ Agreeing With Stalin in Ways that Exhibit Generally Rationalist Principles (February 2021)
+_ Standing Under the Same Sky (April 2021–December 2022)
+
+
+Minor—
+_ horror of gender
+_ math of "sex diffs can still exist in a subspace that is masc/fem compared to genpop"
+_ subspace
+_ newer Haskell surveys?
+_ Book Review: Imogen Binnie's Nevada
+_ Happy Meal
+_ Elision _vs_. Choice
+_ Multi-Product Review: AI for AGP
+_ Link: "On Transitions, Freedom of Form, [...]"
+_ Beckett Mariner Is Trans https://www.reddit.com/r/DaystromInstitute/comments/in3g92/was_mariner_a_teenager_on_the_enterprised/
+
+
+-------
+
+Big posts—
+_ Trans Kids on the Margin, and Harms From Misleading Training Data
+_ Book Review: Charles Murray's Facing Reality: Two Truths About Race in America (with coda)
+
+_ Thoughts on Being Single and Childless at 35 (working title)
+_ Escort (cut §, needs title)?
+_ Biological Sex Actually Exists
+_ Racial Pseudoscience on the Faculty https://archive.ph/ZxVYk
+_ Never Going to Find You Faking
+_ Body Anxiety Posting, Month Year
+_ "But I'm Not Quite Sure What That Means"
+_ Yardstick abolition pessimism https://culturallyboundgender.wordpress.com/2018/11/13/gender-identity-isnt-a-box-its-a-yardstick/
+_ ASL Is Not a Language
+_ Gaussian Gender Issues
+_ Timelines
+_ reinterpretting all of Hannah Montana album lyrics as an AGP narrative
+_ my medianworld: https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1619639#reply-1619639
+_ Rebecca Romijin
+_ "Reducing" Bias and Improving "Safety"
+_ Unicode adopt-a-character?? (would it be wrong to adopt "♀"?)
+_ https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WikzbCsFjpLTRQmXn/declustering-reclustering-and-filling-in-thingspace
+_ Four Clusters
+_ Karnofsky's presentism
+_ motivation for positing meta-attraction
+_ Joint Book Review: Kathleen Stock's Material Girls and Kathryn Paige Harden's The Genetic Lottery
+_ Comments on the Conspiracies of dath ilan
+
+Minor queue—
+_ FaceApp tips
+_ Model-Free Happiness
+_ Sticks and Stones
+
+_ "Assigned at Birth" Is a Schelling Point (If You Live in an Insane Dystopia Where the Concept of Sex Is Somehow Controversial)
+_ Multi-Book Review: Various Sex-Ed Books for Children
+_ "Why the Hell It Means So Much to Me"
+
+
+More minor or Needs Development—
+_ Correct Diagnosis as Common Interest: ideological detrans as a mirror of ideological trans: https://reclaimingtrans.wordpress.com/
+_ "Your Politics Are Interesting" as Worst Compliment
+_ I Wish You Well
+
+
+
+Filler links—
+_ Link: Halifax Pride: https://www.halifaxpride.com/news/2021/5/28/halifax-public-library-response
+_ Link: You're Kidding, Right?
+_ Link: Lease Bound comic
+_ Link: Quillette on Sons Becoming Daughters
+_ Link: Babylon Bee "It's a Good Life" parody https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20ALZgd6_Ek
+
+_ Honesty Is Activism
+
+_ agents with different learning algorithms would find it hard to agree on words?
+
+* Objection: but then shouldn't we pick different words for the convergent and phylo clusters? Uncomfortable with wavering lines around "berry"
+* Reply: story for how we end up with multiple senses attached to the same word
+https://jsmp.dk/posts/2021-01-24-fruits/
+
+Trading Political Favors Doesn't Build True Maps, But Correcting Errors Your Yourself Made, Does
+
+(Rationalists don't exist)
+> how to be a strong rationalist
+https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/4thPHxgBCvteQjLv6/against-context-free-integrity
+
+_ A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning / Casuistry Is Unbecoming: Replies to Eliezer Yudkowsky (I don't know how to do this)
+
+_ E.Y. as case study on unconscious-lying and self-report ("their verbal theories contradict their own datapoints" https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10159408250519228?comment_id=10159411435619228&reply_comment_id=10159411567794228 )
+
+
+https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zersetzung and the GPT-3 neuron about Trump: imagine a short story, where you suddenly become more villainous in the eyes of the narrative, and it's because a greater fraction of your measure is in simulations written based on an unfavorable view of your legacy (you're only aware of this because the GPT-descendant is smart enough to try to correct for it)
+
+philosophy-of-language replies,
+
+Marketing channels—
+_ Reddit: /r/philosophy, /r/TheMotte, /r/theschism, /r/SneerClub
+_ tags: "The SF Bay Area", "Criticisms of the Rationalist Movement", "Postmortems & Retrospectives"
+
+_ "Cis" is like "gentile"
+_ The Sex/Gender Distinction Was a Mistake
+_ Complicity (how do reasonable people cooperate with each other instead of dumb people in their own coalition)
+
+_ Stereotypes are weak probabilistic inferences (Agreeableness d~0.5), category-membership is strong inference, the same word/signal hits both, but stereotypes are (or should be) easy to cancel; shifting default meaning onto stereotypes in order to suit trans (while still having the word attach to something) is a bad trade
+_ Taxometrics and the Fallacy of the Insufficiently Relevant, Insufficiently Multivariate Experiment
+_ Beyond the Binary
+_ https://www.facebook.com/duncan.sabien/posts/3936528276381860 "Natural does not always mean good." — natural does not always mean good, but at our current tech level, that's actually a really good prior
+_ Novemember 2020 Political Notes; Or, Sen. Kelly Loeffler Is Mostly Living in a Simulation Now
+_ Phenotypic Identity and Memetic Capture
+
+_ I, Too, Dislike It
+
+_ Principles (transhumanism, and sanity)
+_ reply to https://azdoine.tumblr.com/post/173995599942/a-reply-to-unremediatedgenderspace-on-reply-to http://archive.is/JSSNi
+_ Cynical Theories review
+_ Persongen/univariate fallacy/typical set
+_ reply on psych prison https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4uvgb4/?context=3
+_ Irreversible Damage review
+_ Jessica/wiz AGP defense
+_ Trans Kids on the Margin, and Harms From Misleading Training Data prior: https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2019/07/19/how-many-trans-folk-are-there-really/ https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2017/04/16/getting-lost-in-the-crowd/
+_ "More Than We Can Say": High-Dimensional Social Science and the Conjunction of Small Effect Sizes
+_ Comment on "Towards decolonising computational sciences" https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.14258
+_ My Identity Has a Better Brier Score Than Your Identity
+_ Comment on "One Size Does Not Fit All: In Support of Psychotherapy for Gender Dysphoria" https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-020-01844-2 (tag: `review (paper)`)
+_ the scapegoating dynamic
+_ review of "What's the Big Secret?" (acknowledges gender-role conventions which are more salient when people are wearing clothes, but then tells the real answer)
+_ reply to https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2020/11/16/hermeneutical-injustice-not-gaslighting/
+_ Comment on "On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots" https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/k77sxz/d_timnit_gebru_and_google_megathread/gepcliq/ https://doxa.substack.com/p/googles-colosseum
+- The Causality of Ethnic Differences in COVID-19 Outcomes Is an Open
+_ follow to "Point Man": prosletyzing religion
+_ Larmarckian Transmission of FtM?!
+
+strict scrutiny
+
+optimized to confuse and intimidate people trying to use language to reason about the concept of biological sex, even if your conscious verbal narrative never says 'and now I will confuse and intimidate people who want to use language to reason about the concept of biological sex'!"
+
+I should email caption bliggers and ask if they know about AGP
+https://www.imagefap.com/profile/rickbennett
+https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/03/swap-clinic-testimonial-i-can-work-with.html
+https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/10/swap-clinic-win-win-win.html
+
+reverse Wason selection task: https://twitter.com/ThetaGrunberg/status/1305296703088545792
+
+(This needs to go into my "Motivations and Political Context")
+Transitioning is easy if you project into the subspace spanned by "given name" and "preferred pronouns" and "frequency of wearing dresses." The problem is that it's not psychologically realistic to expect everyone else to just throw away all the other dimensions—people were using those dimensions!
+
+(for Elision vs. Choice)
+Speakers of my generation are more likely to say "person" when sex isn't relevant, whereas older works (pre-second wave feminism?) would actually say "man" (or "woman"—see how anachronistic it feels to put the female option second and in parentheses?), presumably not because human nature has changed that much, but because of shifting cultural priorities about when sex is "relevant." (Modern speakers similarly frown on mentioning race (https://agentultra.com/blog/the-black-man-stopped-me/) when it's not relevant.)
+
+(My Identity Has a Better Brier Score)
+I'm skeptical of "ace"—I think it's just an identity label that can be successfully marketed to otherwise-ordinary people in the bottom-quartile of libido, by an ideology that wants to sell people identity labels to get them to join the coalition of sexual minorities
+You might reply: "But you identify as AGP, and attach emotional weight to that—isn't that just another identity label?"
+but the thing about AGP is that, I actually have reason to believe it "fits" the territory of the underlying psychological variation
+it's an expression of the theory that trans women (left-coded) and the subjects of that old Atlantic article about (right-coded) married crossdressers ("Conservative Men in Conservative Dresses") are the same thing
+invariant under the cultural coding
+
+
+_ Eugenics Is Actually Good, You Worthless Cowards
+_ The One Where I Try to Be A Little More Explicit About What 'Autogynephilia' Actually Entails
+_ No One Actually Wants to Change "Gender"
+_ Ideology Is the General Case (working title)
+_ Boundary Violations and Territory
+_ three views on partisanship: "Hierarchy and Wings" "Bioleninism" "Democracy Cis and Trans"
+_ Link: "AGPs! GROW A PAIR AND POLICE YOUR OWN COMMUNITY!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_qFxtJ7pxw Karen Davis
+_ Gay + Trans = Straight
+_ Too Big to Fail
+_ Orc-ham's Razor
+_ Walker correspondence
+_ 30 Years of the Blank Slate (Cosmides-Tooby/Pinker/Murray)
+_ "I Hope You're Happy, California"
+_ Travis's Trilemma: Creepy, Crazy, or Protected-Class (working title)
+_ Reply to Ozymandias on Lesbians and on Single-Sex Spaces
+_ Answers on Great Divides: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/08/questions-for-great-divides.html
+_ Film Review: Your Name
+_ World of Masks https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1228093035042541569
+_ glomerular filtration rate https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/gq50mo/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_may_25_2020/frvrhwg/
+_ I Am Very Bad at Keeping Secrets and Am Therefore Very Reluctant to Offer Confidentiality Promises
+
+_ starting to lose sympathy for my crazy past-self
+
+"You're conflating sex and gender"—the problem is, Does anyone actually want to change "gender"?—they're bundled for a reason
+
+it's important to have language for psychology because you can't point to pictures
+
+Training Data—"get used" to the new definitions, in time
+
+"You can follow people you disagree with!" makes sense if you think of
+
+"gay and trans"
+
+if pro-reality trans people are allied with more numerous anti-reality trans people, that incentivizes me to join an anti-trans coalition, when what I actually (should) want is to cherry-pick the pro-reality people
+
+another thing keeping me from trans-IDing: trans is "marked"; choosing it would mean associating with the crazy. Normal Society (with men named Zack) has its own madnesses and crimes, but
+
+
+Vocabulary as Capital Investment
+
+_ Challenges of Mounting an Ideological Crusade
+
+B.F. being smart-but-dense
+
+how taxonomy/typology emerges from Bayesian networks
+
+_ On Being Stereotyped Badly (working title)
+
+Angelic Irony
+
+https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/trvFowBfiKiYi7spb/open-thread-july-2019/comment/RYhKrKAxiQxY3FcHa
+> I think sometimes I talk in a way that makes me seem more politically naïve than I actually am, because I feel as if the “naïve” attitude is in some way normative? (“You really think someone would do that? Just go on the internet and tell lies?”)
+
+
+The Wisdom of Nature (I like the idea of transhumanism, but in practice, biology is just too complicated) https://nickbostrom.com/evolution.pdf
+
+
+_ Product Review: FaceApp
+
+_ The Strategy of "Apartment Patty" — the outrage strategy only works if you have a coalition to back you up. Deterrent: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/05/case-social-media-mobs/612202/ Another example: https://twitter.com/jaimetoons/status/1271300265170186240
+
+Psychiatrist's response to me is kind of case-in-point https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4valma/
+
+you regress to your group's mean—but that depends on how you draw the category boundaries around group membership! This could be a good math post!! https://humanvarieties.org/2017/07/01/measurement-error-regression-to-the-mean-and-group-differences/
+
+https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agalmatophilia "An important fantasy for some individuals is being transformed into the preferred object (such as a statue) and experiencing an associated state of immobility or paralysis."
+
+address accusation that I conflate "passing" and biosex
-----
-Game Theory of Stigmatization (need better title)
+Positioning (don't want to prematurely alienate people you're trying to rescue)
-Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization
+conservatives complain about low-time preference ppl having too many kids—but from a evolutionary perspective, they're more evolutionarily fit
+
+A Science Fiction Story Idea I'm Not Skilled Enough to Write
+
+Names and Genders Are Not Relevantly Analogous
+
+https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agalmatophilia didn't make it into Lawrence's erotic target location paper, did it?
+
+PR-driven plagiarism
Anne Lawrence on AGP Teen Transition
+Anne Lawrence on Unapologetic Autogynephilic Transsexualism
+
+Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization
+
+One-Way Trolls
+
+explain my blunder in https://twitter.com/jessi_cata/status/1188567229987577856
+
+reply to https://surveyanon.wordpress.com/2019/10/27/the-mathematical-consequences-of-a-toy-model-of-gender-transition/
+
+testimony on trans girl periods: http://www.onwednesdays.net/trans-girl-periods/
+
-Unapologetic Autogynephilic Transsexualism
-Promises I Can Keep
Reading Comprehension Is Rape Culture
Trying to Be Explicit
Instrumental Categories, and War
-A Science Fiction Story Idea I'm Not Skilled Enough to Write
(lit-search strategy: go through the del Guidice "Multivariate Misgivings" article and its citations; the Archer paper also mentioned this)
-Phenotypic Identity and Memetic Capture
-
Commentary on "Blegg Mode"
Faster Than Science (Transgender Edition)
Virtue Signaling Is Costly and Honest
(in response to Kosoy's objection)
-_ Tue: Social Strategy Notes, July 2019
-
Servants of the Egregore (write-up of egregore theory as told by "Wilhelm")
Kolmogorov's Iron Triangle; Or, the Not-Being-a-Worthless-Coward Option (epigraph quote: Raleigh's "The Lie")—(include analogy: the fear that atheism would lead to immortality given that ppl don't have to fear Hell, wouldn't have seemed obviously absurd at the time) — honesty, ability to think, and mainstream credibility. The Kolmogorov option sacrifices a lot of honesty in exchange for mainstream credibility. This might seem like a good trade until you consider that "honesty" and "ability to think" aren't independent (because people are bad at compartmentalization and we need to talk to each other to think together).
Research Question: Complicity
-The Motte-and-Bailey Doctrine as Compression Artifact
Where to Segment a Conversation When There's Stuff You Won't Touch, Without Violating the Virtue of Evenness
In Praise of Cartesianism (you need to _really_ understand "A Human's Guide to Words" before you can do high-grade good-faith social constructionism)
-
Sex Differences and Commonsense Priors (I have parsimony intuitions that make "AGP is caused by pollution" or "AGP is normal in cis women" or "hormone receptors distributions are the same" seem not worth considering)
In the Presence of Mimickry, Extension and Intension Simplicity Trade-Off
Objectivity as a Rhetorical Strategy: probability, words, morality
Focus on the Simple Case (accurate maps can have bad effects, but that's a weird second-order analysis)
-Self-Identity as Focal Point; Or, Schelf-Identity
It Was a Complement!
-Names and Genders Are Not Relevantly Analogous
Willie McCovington
A Human's Abridged Guide to Gender Words
-One-Way Trolls
+
in a world where we _actually had_ sex change technology, self-identity doctrine _wouldn't even occur to anyone_
a big essay about Batesian mimickry
-_ "More Than We Can Say": High-Dimensional Social Science and ...
+
_ Codes of Convergence; Or, Smile More
-_ "But I'm Not Quite Sure What That Means": Costs of Nonbinary Gender as a Social Technology
+
_ "I Will Fight [...]": LGBT Patriotism and the Moral Fine-Tuning Objection
_ ℝ40
-_ "I Want to Be the One"
+_
_ The View From Nowhere
game theory pain
_ reply to Ozy on https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/08/03/rapid-onset-gender-dysphoria-is-bad-science/ (when marketing in Culture War thread, maybe hat tip https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/9cir3w/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_03/e5c1h2c/ )
-_ Friendship Practices of ...
_ Q An Infovist's Advisory; Or, Standing Athwart History ...
_ 5150
-Q Blanchard's Dangerous Idea and the Plight of the Lucid Crossdreamer; Or, Could Self-Reports Really Be That Wrong??
apartment patty
Q The Gender Czar's Compromise
"Love Like You"
Blindspot
-Product Review: FaceApp
Q Book Review: Nevada
Product Review: Oculus Go