1 - The Causality of Ethnic Differences in COVID-19 Outcomes Is an Open
2 - Sexual Dimorphism in Yudkowsky's Sequences, in Relation to
5 - And the Wisdom to Know the Difference
6 _ importance of getting the direction of causality right
7 _ Multi-Level Moloch; Or, Technically, the Holocaust Was a Coordination Success
9 philosophy-of-language replies,
12 _ Reddit: /r/philosophy, /r/TheMotte, /r/theschism, /r/SneerClub
13 _ tags: "The SF Bay Area", "Criticisms of the Rationalist Movement", "Postmortems & Retrospectives"
15 _ Taxometrics and the Fallacy of the Insufficiently Relevant, Insufficiently Multivariate Experiment
17 _ https://www.facebook.com/duncan.sabien/posts/3936528276381860 "Natural does not always mean good." — natural does not always mean good, but at our current tech level, that's actually a really good prior
18 _ Novemember 2020 Political Notes; Or, Sen. Kelly Loeffler Is Mostly Living in a Simulation Now
19 _ Phenotypic Identity and Memetic Capture
20 _ crimestopped about L.B.
22 _ Friendship Practices of the Secret-Sharing Plain Speech Valley Squirrels
23 _ Yardstick abolition pessimism https://culturallyboundgender.wordpress.com/2018/11/13/gender-identity-isnt-a-box-its-a-yardstick/
24 _ reductionist rebuttal to "so you think lesbians aren't women"
25 _ Student Dysphoria, and a Previous Life's War
26 _ Principles (transhumanism, and sanity)
27 _ Hrunkner Unnerby and the Shallowness of Progress
28 _ reply to https://azdoine.tumblr.com/post/173995599942/a-reply-to-unremediatedgenderspace-on-reply-to http://archive.is/JSSNi
29 _ reply to https://deathisbadblog.com/the-real-transphobes-are-the-ones-we-made-along-the-way/
30 _ Beckett Mariner Is Trans https://www.reddit.com/r/DaystromInstitute/comments/in3g92/was_mariner_a_teenager_on_the_enterprised/
31 _ Cynical Theories review
32 _ Persongen/univariate fallacy/typical set
33 _ reply on psych prison https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4uvgb4/?context=3
34 _ Irreversible Damage review
35 _ Jessica/wiz AGP defense
36 _ Elision _vs_. Choice (working title)
37 _ Trans Kids on the Margin, and Harms From Misleading Training Data prior: https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2019/07/19/how-many-trans-folk-are-there-really/ https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2017/04/16/getting-lost-in-the-crowd/
38 _ "More Than We Can Say": High-Dimensional Social Science and the Conjunction of Small Effect Sizes
39 _ Comment on "Towards decolonising computational sciences" https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.14258
40 _ My Identity Has a Better Brier Score Than Your Identity
41 _ TV Review: "The Trouble With Edward"
42 _ Comment on "One Size Does Not Fit All: In Support of Psychotherapy for Gender Dysphoria" https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-020-01844-2 (tag: `review (paper)`)
43 _ the scapegoating dynamic
44 _ review of "What's the Big Secret?" (acknowledges gender-role conventions which are more salient when people are wearing clothes, but then tells the real answer)
45 _ reply to https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2020/11/16/hermeneutical-injustice-not-gaslighting/
47 _ Comment on "On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots" https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/k77sxz/d_timnit_gebru_and_google_megathread/gepcliq/
51 This is the same mechanism as "Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception"!!
52 > journalism is usually trustworthy because trustworthiness is the carrier vehicle. It's occasionally corrupt, because corruption is the payload.
53 https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/lje3nu/statement_on_new_york_times_article/gnfrprx/?context=3
55 optimized to confuse and intimidate people trying to use language to reason about the concept of biological sex, even if your conscious verbal narrative never says 'and now I will confuse and intimidate people who want to use language to reason about the concept of biological sex'!"
57 I should email caption bliggers and ask if they know about AGP
58 https://www.imagefap.com/profile/rickbennett
59 https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/03/swap-clinic-testimonial-i-can-work-with.html
60 https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/10/swap-clinic-win-win-win.html
62 reverse Wason selection task: https://twitter.com/ThetaGrunberg/status/1305296703088545792
64 I'm not usually—at least, not always—so much of a scrub as to play chess with a pigeon (which shits on the board and then struts around like it's won), or wrestle with a pig (which gets you both dirty, and the pig likes it), or dispute what the Tortise said to Achilles
66 (This needs to go into my "Motivations and Political Context")
67 Transitioning is easy if you project into the subspace spanned by "given name" and "preferred pronouns" and "frequency of wearing dresses." The problem is that it's not psychologically realistic to expect everyone else to just throw away all the other dimensions—people were using those dimensions!
69 (for Elision vs. Choice)
70 Speakers of my generation are more likely to say "person" when sex isn't relevant, whereas older works (pre-second wave feminism?) would actually say "man" (or "woman"—see how anachronistic it feels to put the female option second and in parentheses?), presumably not because human nature has changed that much, but because of shifting cultural priorities about when sex is "relevant." (Modern speakers similarly frown on mentioning race (https://agentultra.com/blog/the-black-man-stopped-me/) when it's not relevant.)
72 This is completely discrediting!!!
73 https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/11/12/book-review-the-body-keeps-the-score/
74 > they’re not necessarily rejecting the seriousness of child abuse, only saying it’s not the kind of thing they build their categories around.
76 (My Identity Has a Better Brier Score)
77 I'm skeptical of "ace"—I think it's just an identity label that can be successfully marketed to otherwise-ordinary people in the bottom-quartile of libido, by an ideology that wants to sell people identity labels to get them to join the coalition of sexual minorities
78 You might reply: "But you identify as AGP, and attach emotional weight to that—isn't that just another identity label?"
79 but the thing about AGP is that, I actually have reason to believe it "fits" the territory of the underlying psychological variation
80 it's an expression of the theory that trans women (left-coded) and the subjects of that old Atlantic article about (right-coded) married crossdressers ("Conservative Men in Conservative Dresses") are the same thing
81 invariant under the cultural coding
84 _ Eugenics Is Actually Good, You Worthless Cowards
85 _ The One Where I Try to Be A Little More Explicit About What 'Autogynephilia' Actually Entails
86 _ No One Actually Wants to Change "Gender"
87 _ Ideology Is the General Case (working title)
88 _ Boundary Violations and Territory
89 _ three views on partisanship: "Hierarchy and Wings" "Bioleninism" "Democracy Cis and Trans"
91 _ Gay + Trans = Straight
94 _ Walker correspondence
95 _ 30 Years of the Blank Slate (Cosmides-Tooby/Pinker/Murray)
96 _ "I Hope You're Happy, California"
97 _ Travis's Trilemma: Creepy, Crazy, or Protected-Class (working title)
98 _ Reply to Ozymandias on Lesbians and on Single-Sex Spaces
99 _ Answers on Great Divides: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/08/questions-for-great-divides.html
100 _ Film Review: Your Name
101 _ World of Masks https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1228093035042541569
102 _ "But I'm Not Quite Sure What That Means": Costs of Nonbinary Gender as a Social Technology
103 _ "I Tell Myself to Let the Story End"; Or, A Hill of Validity ... (UUT)
104 _ glomerular filtration rate https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/gq50mo/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_may_25_2020/frvrhwg/
105 _ I Am Very Bad at Keeping Secrets and Am Therefore Very Reluctant to Offer Confidentiality Promises
107 _ starting to lose sympathy for my crazy past-self
109 "You're conflating sex and gender"—the problem is, Does anyone actually want to change "gender"?—they're bundled for a reason
112 _ You and What Army? Or, The Wisdom to Know the Difference
113 _ different ways of factoring a Bayes net of the same data make different predictions about interventions
114 _ COVID life-years (rather than deaths)
115 _ Signals, Deception, and the Precession of Simulacra (LW)
116 _ Contra Scott Alexander on Mental Illness; Or, Oh God, Please Don't (aAL/LW)
117 _ Comment on Wireheading /r/rational
118 _ Second Derivative (Paul Christiano on growth timelines)
119 _ Selective Reporting and Clustering
120 _ Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization—marginally neglected truths are more
121 _ Explicit Disjunction vs. Contradictory Arguments from a Bottom Line
122 _ How they Pin It Down: Equal Environments Assumption Edition https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cXzTpSiCrNGzeoRAz/conjunction-controversy-or-how-they-nail-it-down
123 _ Social Construction is an Embedded Agency Problem
125 it's important to have language for psychology because you can't point to pictures
127 Training Data—"get used" to the new definitions, in time
129 "You can follow people you disagree with!" makes sense if you think of
133 if pro-reality trans people are allied with more numerous anti-reality trans people, that incentivizes me to join an anti-trans coalition, when what I actually (should) want is to cherry-pick the pro-reality people
135 another thing keeping me from trans-IDing: trans is "marked"; choosing it would mean associating with the crazy. Normal Society (with men named Zack) has its own madnesses and crimes, but
138 Vocabulary as Capital Investment
140 _ Challenges of Mounting an Ideological Crusade
142 B.F. being smart-but-dense
144 how taxonomy/typology emerges from Bayesian networks
146 _ On Being Stereotyped Badly (working title)
150 https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/trvFowBfiKiYi7spb/open-thread-july-2019/comment/RYhKrKAxiQxY3FcHa
151 > I think sometimes I talk in a way that makes me seem more politically naïve than I actually am, because I feel as if the “naïve” attitude is in some way normative? (“You really think someone would do that? Just go on the internet and tell lies?”)
153 Memetics vs. Discourse
154 Cromwell's Rule Is About Symmetry, Not Fairness
156 The Motte-and-Bailey Doctrine as Compression Artifact
157 Trading Political Favors Doesn't Build True Maps, But Correcting Errors Your Yourself Made, Does
159 The Wisdom of Nature (I like the idea of transhumanism, but in practice, biology is just too complicated) https://nickbostrom.com/evolution.pdf
162 _ Product Review: FaceApp
164 _ The Strategy of "Apartment Patty" — the outrage strategy only works if you have a coalition to back you up. Deterrent: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/05/case-social-media-mobs/612202/ Another example: https://twitter.com/jaimetoons/status/1271300265170186240
166 Psychiatrist's response to me is kind of case-in-point https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4valma/
168 you regress to your group's mean—but that depends on how you draw the category boundaries around group membership! This could be a good math post!! https://humanvarieties.org/2017/07/01/measurement-error-regression-to-the-mean-and-group-differences/
170 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agalmatophilia "An important fantasy for some individuals is being transformed into the preferred object (such as a statue) and experiencing an associated state of immobility or paralysis."
172 address accusation that I conflate "passing" and biosex
176 Positioning (don't want to prematurely alienate people you're trying to rescue)
178 conservatives complain about low-time preference ppl having too many kids—but from a evolutionary perspective, they're more evolutionarily fit
180 A Science Fiction Story Idea I'm Not Skilled Enough to Write
182 Names and Genders Are Not Relevantly Analogous
184 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agalmatophilia didn't make it into Lawrence's erotic target location paper, did it?
188 Anne Lawrence on AGP Teen Transition
189 Anne Lawrence on Unapologetic Autogynephilic Transsexualism
191 Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization
195 explain my blunder in https://twitter.com/jessi_cata/status/1188567229987577856
197 reply to https://surveyanon.wordpress.com/2019/10/27/the-mathematical-consequences-of-a-toy-model-of-gender-transition/
199 testimony on trans girl periods: http://www.onwednesdays.net/trans-girl-periods/
204 Reading Comprehension Is Rape Culture
206 Reply to David R. MacIver on Gendering
208 Trying to Be Explicit
210 Instrumental Categories, and War
212 (lit-search strategy: go through the del Guidice "Multivariate Misgivings" article and its citations; the Archer paper also mentioned this)
214 Commentary on "Blegg Mode"
216 Faster Than Science (Transgender Edition)
218 (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GEJzPwY8JedcNX2qz/blegg-mode)
220 karaoke, celebrity, cognitive load; I don't want people to do that for me
222 Option<String>?! https://web.archive.org/web/20160731010249/https://qntm.org/gay
225 _ "Lies to Cis People", a.k.a., "Lies"
226 _ I Mean, Yes, I Agree That Man Should Allocate Some More Categories, But
229 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ZvJab25tDebB8FGE/you-have-about-five-words : well, that explains the TWAW mantra
231 The Parable of the Good Witch
233 First-Offender Models and the Unilateralist's Blessing
234 The Parable of the Faithful Man and the Cowardly Priest
236 Game Theory of "Apartment Patty"
238 Virtue Signaling Is Costly and Honest
239 (in response to Kosoy's objection)
241 Servants of the Egregore (write-up of egregore theory as told by "Wilhelm")
243 Kolmogorov's Iron Triangle; Or, the Not-Being-a-Worthless-Coward Option (epigraph quote: Raleigh's "The Lie")—(include analogy: the fear that atheism would lead to immortality given that ppl don't have to fear Hell, wouldn't have seemed obviously absurd at the time) — honesty, ability to think, and mainstream credibility. The Kolmogorov option sacrifices a lot of honesty in exchange for mainstream credibility. This might seem like a good trade until you consider that "honesty" and "ability to think" aren't independent (because people are bad at compartmentalization and we need to talk to each other to think together).
245 Research Question: Complicity
248 Where to Segment a Conversation When There's Stuff You Won't Touch, Without Violating the Virtue of Evenness
249 In Praise of Cartesianism (you need to _really_ understand "A Human's Guide to Words" before you can do high-grade good-faith social constructionism)
251 Sex Differences and Commonsense Priors (I have parsimony intuitions that make "AGP is caused by pollution" or "AGP is normal in cis women" or "hormone receptors distributions are the same" seem not worth considering)
253 In the Presence of Mimickry, Extension and Intension Simplicity Trade-Off
255 Objectivity as a Rhetorical Strategy: probability, words, morality
256 Focus on the Simple Case (accurate maps can have bad effects, but that's a weird second-order analysis)
259 A Human's Abridged Guide to Gender Words
263 in a world where we _actually had_ sex change technology, self-identity doctrine _wouldn't even occur to anyone_
265 Operationalization of Bad Faith: if people make reasoning errors that they wouldn't make with another topic having the same underlying structure
269 The Charity Convergence Trap
277 a big essay about Batesian mimickry
280 _ Codes of Convergence; Or, Smile More
282 _ "I Will Fight [...]": LGBT Patriotism and the Moral Fine-Tuning Objection
289 _ The View From Nowhere
293 _ reply to Ozy on https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/08/03/rapid-onset-gender-dysphoria-is-bad-science/ (when marketing in Culture War thread, maybe hat tip https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/9cir3w/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_03/e5c1h2c/ )
294 _ Q An Infovist's Advisory; Or, Standing Athwart History ...
296 Q Blanchard's Dangerous Idea and the Plight of the Lucid Crossdreamer; Or, Could Self-Reports Really Be That Wrong??
300 ✓ Interlude XVII (not all men)
302 can the comment on "Bit Players" actually fit on this blog (I didn't empathize with offense at fake physics, but I can take offense at maximum-entropy psychology): epigraph quote, "It's Only a Paper Moon"
304 Q As Well for a Sheep as a Lamb; Or, Charity, Objectivity, and ...
307 _ Stereotypes, Models, and Cognition: Beyond Maximum-Entropy Psychology
308 Imperfect Trait Measurements Regress to the Mean
309 Q The Gender Czar's Compromise
313 Q Book Review: Nevada
314 Product Review: Oculus Go
316 All You Had to Say https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/8xa97t/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_july_09_2018/e228vyj/
322 Q Time Travel Isn't Real; Or, Yes, the Only Real Trans Woman Is a Transitioned Trans Woman
323 _ The Neglect of Probability Fallacy; Or, You Do Not Have an Intersex Condition
324 Q Simple Models Plus Noise Are Better Than Pretending Not to Have a Model
325 Falsifiability and What We Expect Not to See
327 Q The Hand I Was Dealt
328 "diagonalize" http://gender-decoder.katmatfield.com/ by running the research paper it was based on through it
329 Q Reduce Gender Identities to Gender Goals
330 Threnody for the Transhumanism of My Youth
331 of course trans genders are less natural; that's the entire fucking point
332 People Really Don't Know Why They Do Things
333 Q I Want to See You Be Brave
334 Passing Is Legitimacy, Legitimacy Is Passing
335 All Men Benefit From Patriarchy
336 (the story about my name)
337 Review of Nerve Endings: The New Trans Erotic
338 on the poor literary quality of TG captions
339 "Another Me I Haven't Met" (SacAnime cosplay review)
340 go back to east bay tg club night?
341 Product Review: Glamour Boutique's Vee-String Bladder
342 Q This Is Worth a Fight
343 "Trans Women Are Women" is a Positive-Affect Instance of the Noncentral Fallacy
347 story of Gina and Vern selected for GNC
348 story about women engineers and male businesspeople
349 story about race of humans who have a "sneaky" camoflauge form and someone with their analogue of AGP tries to deliberately lower his status to get it
350 fix fic for that one episode of _The Orville_