highlight surprise in Turing scoring

[Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git] / content / 2017 / thing-of-things-transgender-intellectual-turing-test-predictions-and-commentary.md

diff --git a/content/2017/thing-of-things-transgender-intellectual-turing-test-predictions-and-commentary.md b/content/2017/thing-of-things-transgender-intellectual-turing-test-predictions-and-commentary.md
index 3f68311..3b186d2 100644 (file)
--- a/content/2017/thing-of-things-transgender-intellectual-turing-test-predictions-and-commentary.md
+++ b/content/2017/thing-of-things-transgender-intellectual-turing-test-predictions-and-commentary.md
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ In the intellectual Turing test, contestants answer a set of questions both as t
 **Gender identity entries**
 
 [#1](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/03/itt-1-gender-identity/): GI: 0.65, BBL: 0.35 (strong philosophy of language; if telling the truth about being a cis woman, ignorance of non-dysphoric AGP is plausible), Actual: GI ✔, Bayes-score: −0.621  
-[#2](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/06/itt-2-gender-identity/): GI: 0.4, BBL: 0.6 (awareness of 4chan shows non-naïveté about what's actually going on), Actual: GI â\9c\94, Bayes-score: −1.322  
+[#2](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/06/itt-2-gender-identity/): GI: 0.4, BBL: 0.6 (awareness of 4chan shows non-naïveté about what's actually going on), Actual: GI â\9c\98, Bayes-score: −1.322  
 [#3](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/07/itt-3-gender-identity/): GI: 0.6, BBL: 0.4 (maybe a little _too_ doctrinaire??), Actual: BBL ✘, Bayes-score: −1.322  
 [#4](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/08/itt-4-gender-identity/): GI: 0.6, BBL: 0.4, Actual: BBL ✘, Bayes-score: −1.322  
 [#5](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/09/itt-5-gender-identity/): GI: 0.6, BBL: 0.4, Actual: GI ✔, Bayes-score: −0.737  
@@ -28,12 +28,12 @@ In the intellectual Turing test, contestants answer a set of questions both as t
 [#1](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/17/itt-2-blanchard-bailey/): GI: 0.6, BBL: 0.4, Actual: GI ✔, Bayes-score: −0.737  
 [#2](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/20/itt-3-blanchard-bailey/): GI: 0.4, BBL: 0.6, Actual: GI ✘, Bayes-score: −1.322  
 [#3](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/21/itt-4-blanchard-bailey/): GI: 0.4, BBL: 0.6, Actual: BBL ✔, Bayes-score: −0.737  
-[#4](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/22/itt-5-blanchard-bailey/): GI: 0.9, BBL: 0.1 (shibboleth fail!—people who believe in biology do not say "assigned at birth" when describing their own beliefs! Also, failure to notice the obvious "for the same reasons men are" re programmers), Actual: BBL ✘, Bayes-score: −3.322  
+[#4](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/22/itt-5-blanchard-bailey/): GI: 0.9, BBL: 0.1 (shibboleth fail!—people who believe in biology do not say "assigned at birth" when describing their own beliefs! Also, failure to notice the obvious "for the same reasons men are" re programmers), Actual: BBL (!!) ✘, Bayes-score: −3.322  
 [#5](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/23/itt-6-blanchard-bailey/): GI: 0.2, BBL: 0.8 (preach it!), Actual: GI ✘, Bayes-score: −2.322  
 [#6](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/24/itt-7-blanchard-bailey/): GI: 0.8, BBL: 0.2 ("male socialization, which unlike androphilic trans women they actually tend to absorb as kids" sounds like someone who believes that innate gender identity determines what socialization you latch onto from your culture, rather than someone who actually believes in sexual dimorphism), Actual: GI ✔, Bayes-score: −0.322  
 [#7](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/27/itt-8-blanchard-bailey/): GI: 0.9, BBL: 0.1 (shibboleth fail again!—[my comment at _Thing of Things_](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/27/itt-8-blanchard-bailey/#comment-25273)), Actual: GI ✔, Bayes-score: −0.152  
 [#8](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/28/itt-9-blanchard-bailey/): GI: 0.1, BBL: 0.9 (raw reality), Actual: BBL ✔, Bayes-score: −0.152  
 [#9](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/29/itt-1-blanchard-bailey/): GI: 0.85, BBL: 0.15 ([my comment](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/03/29/itt-1-blanchard-bailey/#comment-25321)), Actual: GI ✔, Bayes-score: −0.234
 
-**Proportion correct** (construing assignment of probability greater than 0.5 to the actual answer as "correct"): 12/18  
+**Proportion correct** (construing assignment of probability greater than 0.5 to the actual answer as "correct"): 11/18  
 **Total Bayes-score**: −18.012 (_just_ worse than chance)