--- /dev/null
+Let's consider some of what is known about trans women. (For the remainder of this post, I'm going to focus on trans women, for reasons of personal interest. The task of analyzing the situation of trans men is left to the interested reader.)
+
+While a minority of trans women in Western countries fit the "classical transsexual" profile of being attracted to men, displaying lifelong female-typical social behavior and interests, and transitioning early. But the majority don't fit this pattern.
+
+(To interested readers who only have time to read one paper, I recommend Anne Lawrence's ["Autogynephilia and the Typology of Male-to-Female Transsexualism: Concepts and Controversies"](http://unremediatedgender.space/papers/lawrence-agp_and_typology.pdf) For a more exhaustive treatment, see Lawrence's book [_Men Trapped in Men's Bodies_](https://surveyanon.files.wordpress.com/2017/07/men-trapped-in-mens-bodies_book.pdf) or follow the links and citations in [Kay Brown's FAQ](https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/faq-on-the-science/).)
+
+[caveats: take care to note that it's possible to believe in a weaker form of it: maybe you agree to the bimodality in the data, but don't think it's two discrete etiological types; or, maybe you [agree that there are two etiologies, but](https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/04/18/against-blanchardianism/) don't buy that AGP is the cause]
+
+In less tolerant places and decades, where transsexuals were very rare and had to try very hard to pass as women out of dire necessity, their impact on the social order and how people think about gender was minimal—there were just too few trans people to make much of a difference.
+
+Nowadays, in progressive enclaves of Western countries, this is no longer true, and in communities that form around [non-sex-balanced interests](http://slatestarcodex.com/2017/08/07/contra-grant-on-exaggerated-differences/), the numbers can be quite dramatic. For example, on the 2018 _Slate Star Codex_ reader survey, 9.4% responded _F (cisgender)_ to the gender question, compared to 1.4% responding _F (transgender m -> f)_. So, if trans women are women, _13.4%_ (!!) of female _Slate Star Codex_ readers are trans.
+
+A (cis) female friend of the blog, a member of the Berkeley, California rationalist community reports on recent changes in local social norms—
+
+> There have been "all women" things, like clothing swaps or groups, that then pre-transitioned trans women show up to. And it's hard, because it's weird and uncomfortable once three or four participants of twelve are trans women. I think the reality that's happening is women are having those spaces less—instead doing private things "for friends," with specific invite lists that are implicitly understood not to include men or trans women. This sucks because then we can't include women who aren't _already_ in our social circle, and we all know it but no one wants to say it.
+
+This is a _terrible_ outcome with respect to _everyone's_ values. One couldn't even say, "The cost to bigoted cis women of not being able to have trans-exclusionary spaces is more than outweighed by trans women's identities being respected," b
+
+Depending on your values, of course, you might be in favor of making it socially unacceptable to have sex-segregated spaces that are actually segregated by biological sex. The methods of rationality themselves have nothing to say on the matter.
+
+To only say, "What's the problem? Trans women are women, by definition, and definitions can't be wrong" is to invite the reply, "That's not what I meant _and you fucking know it._"
+
+------
+
+[Alexander cites Emperor Norton as a charming example of the power of kindness, but as fun as the story is to read about on Wikipedia, that kind of "benevolent" gaslighting is not something you would do to someone you actually _respected_; I'm glad my friends didn't lie to me when I was having delusions of grandeur]
+
+[imagine you're Emperor Norton's best friend and he expresses doubt as to whether he's being hugboxed]
+
+[...]
+
+"What if—what if I'm not actually the Emperor?"
+
+"The categories were made for man, not man for the categories, Your Highness," you say.
+
+[...]
+
+"Well," you say, sighing, "let's see what we can do." You pull out your notebook, ready to jot down, ideas, strategies—battle plans?
+
+"But," you caution, "I'd be lying if I told you it was going to be _easy_."
+
+
+------
+
+POINTS TO ADD (not sure where it fits best yet)—
+
+ * the one-sidedness is breathtaking—it's as if Alexander's UN inspector said, "These Palestinians are willing to commit suicide to get what they want, so let's just give all of Palestine to them"
+
+ * The case for using identified gender rather than biological sex is
+ strongest for binary trans people who actually pass.
+ * The tack where you show a picture of Buck Angel and say, "You're not
+ really going to call this person a woman, are you?" makes a good point
+ * It's less strong for ...
+ * People who don't pass
+ * Passing is a continuum rather than a binary and is also
+ observer-dependent, which is inconvenient from the perspective of
+ categorization, which tends to stick to bright-lines and Schelling
+ points
+ * Re observer dependence: quote Serano (do I rely/pick on Serano too
+ much?) or someone about how it's actually _harder_ to pass in urban
+ areas because people have a higher prior
+ * Ref-to-rebut Zinnia Jones on "passing is subjective, therefore it's
+ bullshit"
+ * "nonbinary people"
+ * Normies don't have nonbinary gender in their ontology; at least
+ acknowledge that you're making a political demand when you want
+ them to adapt
+ * What are the decision criteria for nonbinary, anyway? People can
+ still _tell_
+ * Rundown of social consequences of different criteria—
+ * When you have people who are _identifiably_ distinct from natal-sex
+ people _and_ not drawn from the same psychological distribution, it
+ becomes socially profitable for people to notice and adjust their
+ expectations; you can't stop them from doing this
+ * separate post "Stereotypes, Models, and Cognition"
+ * People are making probabilistic inferences all the time whether
+ they realize it or not
+ * Being drawn from a different psychological distribution but _not_
+ identifiably (AGPs who pass really well) doesn't hurt the dynamics
+ as much
+ * AGPs aren't drawn from the same psychological distribution as cis
+ women. (Briefly explain the typology, but refer to external sources
+ for justification. For a more hard-facts empirical justification of
+ "not drawn from the same dist'n", cite data on sexual orientation (and
+ [contrast](https://twitter.com/SteveStuWill/status/905572666332987392))
+ and crime rates.)
+ * Making it not-OK for people to _talk_ about the categories that they
+ internally use to make sense of the world is bad
+ * experiences in LWish spaces with lots of trans women: if you
+ doctrinairely call everyone women, my brain rebels and wants to
+ say, "That's not what I meant and _you fucking know it_." And
+ honestly? (And I think they do, in fact, fucking know it.)
+ * The inability to have women's clothing swaps is a _real loss_
+ * Negotiation-structure: we've been using this word to refer to this
+ thing for the past 200,000 years since the invention of language;
+ if you want us to stop, you need to offer us something we value
+ (and you have nothing to trade with); threatening to kill yourself
+ is easily (if callously) countered with "We don't negotiate with
+ terrorists"
+ * For crime/medical statistics, you need natal sex or third-category.
+
+ * The case of Emperor Norton looks cute at first glance, but
+ ostensibly-benevolent gaslighting is still problematic (we call it
+ _hugboxing_).
+ * I've been crazy (link "Memoirs"), and I'm glad my friends patiently told
+ me why I was wrong rather than saying "That's nice dear" (maybe quote
+ care email).
+ * Tell a story about what this could have been like for Norton beginning to
+ doubt the reality of his reign.
+ * Link to Maria Catt's "Baby Jessica" essay (maybe write her fan mail and
+ ask her to put it back up again)
+
+/2017/Feb/if-other-fantasies-were-treated-like-crossdreaming/
+
+[point out that legal fictions aren't always taken seriously by people who are trying to talk about the world, use "Europe" examples from acquaintance; Seeing Like a State]
+
+two-types are relevant to trans child debate
+
+Buck Angel pic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buck_Angel#/media/File:Buck_Angel_Headshot.jpg
+
+"Long-Term Follow-Up of Transsexual Persons Undergoing Sex Reassignment Surgery: Cohort Study in Sweden" http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0016885 retained a male pattern re criminality
+
+_Slate Star Codex_ 2017 survey: 6939 (87.2%) cis men, 733 (9.2%) cis women, trans women 114 (1.4%): 13.4% trans!!!!
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