better outlining technique

[Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git] / notes / i-tell-myself-notes.txt

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@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
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 Actually—maybe I _do_ want to keep this narrowly scoped to the Category War, where I have a very strong case, rather than telling my whole gender/rationalism story!
 
 OUTLINE
@@ -412,6 +413,10 @@ Standards! https://srconstantin.wordpress.com/2018/12/24/contrite-strategies-and
 https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1067490362225156096
 "The more technology advances, the further we can move people towards where they say they want to be in sexspace. Having said this we've said all the facts. Who competes in sports segregated around an Aristotelian binary is a policy question (that I personally find very humorous)."
 
+_Why_ is it humorous? Because you don't like sports? (["Though, since you never designed your own leg muscles, you are racing using strength that isn't yours.  A race between robot cars is a purer contest of their designers."](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/29vqqmGNxNRGzffEj/high-challenge))
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 https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1067300728572600320
 
 https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1065666629155995648 "The only leaders in the current ecosystem who express any kind of controversial opinion, ever, are organisms that specialize in subsisting on the resource flows produced by expressing that kind of controversial opinion."
@@ -423,3 +428,15 @@ A rationality mistake is made that's useful for supporting political agenda X, n
 if THAT is now too politically contentious to affirm in public, we're DEAD
 
 http://zackmdavis.net/blog/2016/09/concerns-ii/ "you yourself admit that your model won't assign literally all of its probability mass to the exact outcome?!"
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+"category boundaries" were just a visual metaphor for talking about beliefs? There's a little naive Bayes model in my head with "blueness" and "eggness" observation nodes hooked up to a central "blegg" category-membership node, such that I can use observations to update my beliefs about category-membership, and use my beliefs about category-membership to predict observations. The set of things I'll classify as a blegg with probability greater than p is conveniently visualized as an area with a boundary in blueness–eggness space, but the beliefs are the important thing.
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+http://zackmdavis.net/blog/2016/07/concerns/
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+(I'm avoiding naming anyone in this post even when linking to their public writings, in order to try to keep the _rhetorical emphasis_ on "true tale of personal heartbreak, coupled with sober analysis of the sociopolitical factors leading thereto" even while I'm expressing disappointment with people's performance. This isn't supposed to be character/reputation attack on my friends and intellectual heroes—I just _need to tell the story_ about why I've been crazy all year so that I can stop grieving and _move on_.)
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+"Don't Revere the Bearer of Good Info"
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+casuistry
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+Eliezer's NRx 2013 vs. 2019 takes