marked TODO blocks—
-- Boston [pt. 5]
-✓ I wish Richard Feynman was trans [pt. 2]
-- social justice and defying threats [pt. 5]
-- Jessica's experience at MIRI and CfAR [pt. 5]
-_ last email and not bothering him [pt. 6]
-_ autogenderphilia (in-line section) [pt. 4]
-_ New York [pt. 6]
-_ reaction to Ziz [pt. 4]
-_ "Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception" [pt. 4]
-_ the Death With Dignity era [pt. 6]
-_ scuffle on "Yes Requires the Possibility" [pt. 4]
-_ confronting Olivia [pt. 2]
-_ "Lesswrong.com is dead to me" [pt. 4]
-_ AI timelines scam [pt. 4]
+✓ Boston [pt. 6]
+✓ Jessica's experience at MIRI and CfAR [pt. 6]
+✓ pandemic starts [pt. 4]
+✓ autogenderphilia (in-line section) [pt. 4]
+✓ last email and not bothering him [pt. 6]
+✓ the Death With Dignity era [pt. 6]
+✓ New York [pt. 6]
+✓ scuffle on "Yes Requires the Possibility" [pt. 4]
+✓ "Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception" [pt. 4]
+✓ Eliezerfic fight: will-to-Truth vs. will-to-happiness [pt. 6]
+✓ Eliezerfic fight: Ayn Rand and children's morals [pt. 6]
+✓ AI timelines scam [pt. 4]
+
+- regrets, wasted time, conclusion [pt. 6]
+
+- "Lesswrong.com is dead to me" [pt. 4]
_ secret thread with Ruby [pt. 4]
_ progress towards discussing the real thing [pt. 4]
_ epistemic defense meeting [pt. 4]
+
+- December 2019 winter blogging vacation [pt. 4]
+_ plan to reach out to Rick [pt. 4]
+
+_ Eliezerfic fight: Big Yud tests me [pt. 6]
+_ Eliezerfic fight: derail with lintamande [pt. 6]
+_ Eliezerfic fight: knives, and showing myself out [pt. 6]
+
+_ reaction to Ziz [pt. 4]
+_ confronting Olivia [pt. 2]
_ State of Steven [pt. 4]
_ Somni [pt. 4]
-_ rude maps [pt. 4]
_ culture off the rails; my warning points to Vaniver [pt. 4]
-_ December 2019 winter blogging vacation [pt. 4]
-_ plan to reach out to Rick [pt. 4]
_ complicity and friendship [pt. 4]
-_ pandemic starts [pt. 4]
_ out of patience email [pt. 4]
-_ the hill he wants to die on [pt. 6]
+_ the hill he wants to die on [pt. 6?]
_ recap of crimes, cont'd [pt. 6]
_ lead-in to Sept. 2021 Twitter altercation [pt. 6]
-_ regrets, wasted time, conclusion [pt. 6]
-
-not even blocked—
-_ Re: on legitimacy and the entrepreneur; or, continuing the attempt to spread my sociopathic awakening onto Scott [pt. 2 somewhere]
-_ running away to Burlingame; Hamilton tickets
-_ "Even our pollution is beneficial"
-_ include Wilhelm "Gender Czar" conversation? [pt. 2]
bigger blocks—
-_ dath ilan and Eliezerfic fight
_ Dolphin War finish
_ Michael Vassar and the Theory of Optimal Gossip
_ psychiatric disaster
_ the story of my Feb. 2017 Facebook crusade [pt. 2]
_ the story of my Feb./Apr. 2017 recent madness [pt. 2]
-
-
-New (bad) time estimate:
-35 smaller TODO blocks × 3/day = 12 days
-7 bigger blocks × day/2.5 = 17.5 days
-= 29.5 workdays × 7 sidereal days / 6 workdays = 34.4 sidereal days
-= gapless draft on 17 February??
-
-Less delusionally optimistic time estimate—
-32 TODO block × 1/workday = 32 days
-7 bigger blocks × workday/4 = 28 days
-= 60 workdays × 7 sidereal days / 5 workdays = 84 sidereal days
-= gapless draft on 18 April???
-
+not even blocked—
+_ A/a alumna consult? [pt. 2]
+_ "Even our pollution is beneficial" [pt. 6]
+_ Scott Aaronson on the blockchain of science [pt. 6]
+_ Re: on legitimacy and the entrepreneur; or, continuing the attempt to spread my sociopathic awakening onto Scott [pt. 2 somewhere]
+_ running away to Burlingame; Hamilton tickets
+_ include Wilhelm "Gender Czar" conversation? [pt. 2]
+_ "EA" brand ate the "rationalism" brand—even visible in MIRI dialogues
+_ Anna's heel–face turn
it was actually "wander onto the AGI mailing list wanting to build a really big semantic net" (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9HGR5qatMGoz4GhKj/above-average-ai-scientists)
-
With internet available—
-✓ Whining-Based Communities
-✓ love to know some positive integer number of plans
-✓ Ione "good things don't cancel out bad things"
-✓ Conversation Halters (re: things that people are motivated to argue about)
-✓ My Way
+_ comments on "The Legend of the Extortion War"
+_ "pretty productive blogging spree" should be links to minor posts
+_ comment on "Timelines Scam" re "The Two-Party Swindle"
+_ "they had to know at some level": link to "why we can't take expected values literally"
+_ publication date of "The AI Timelines Scam"
+_ "around plot relevant sentences" ... only revealing, which, specifically?
+_ what was I replying to, re: "why you actually don't want to be a happier but less accurate predictor"?
+_ relevant screenshots for Eliezerfic play-by-play
+_ lc on elves and Sparashki
+_ Nate would later admit that this was a mistake (or ask Jessica where)
+_ Michael Bailey's new AGP in women study
+_ footnote "said that he wishes he'd never published"
+_ replace "Oh man oh jeez" Rick & Morty link
+_ Nevada bona fides
+_ Parfit's Hitchhiker
+_ double-check correctness of Keltham-on-paternalism link
+_ Arbital TDT explanation
+_ find Sequences cite "if you don't know how your AI works, that's bad"
+_ cover reply to my initial conspiracy complaint about dath ilan?
_ "not hard to find": link to more /r/itsafetish-like anecdotes
_ compile ancillary KP doctor's notes page and linky
_ go back and read all the masochism tags: https://www.glowfic.com/replies/search?board_id=&author_id=366&template_id=&character_id=&subj_content=masochism&sort=created_old&condensed=on&commit=Search
_ Yudkowsky's LW moderation policy
far editing tier—
+_ clarify Sarah dropping out of the coordination group
+_ somewhere in dath ilan discussion: putting a wrapper on graphic porn is fine, de-listing Wikipedia articles is not
+_ maybe current-year LW would be better if more marginal cases _had_ bounced off because of e.g. sexism
+_ footnote to explain that when I'm summarizing a long Discord conversation to taste, I might move things around into "logical" time rather than "real time"; e.g. Yudkowsky's "powerfully relevant" and "but Superman" comments were actually one right after the other; and, e.g., I'm filling in more details that didn't make it into the chat, like innate kung fu
+_ re "EY is a fraud": it's a _conditional_ that he can modus tollens if he wants
+_ NRx point about HBD being more than IQ, ties in with how I think the focus on IQ is distasteful, but I have political incentives to bring it up
+_ "arguing for a duty to self-censorship"—contrast to my "closing thoughts" email
+_ explain Amelia Davis Ford ref
+_ New York NRx conversation, flesh out "mostly guys"; I was acknowleding diversity as unrealistic and hypocritical; he outright doesn't believe in "people" as opposed to men/women
+_ fold in observations from "trapped priors—at home"
+_ earlier reference the children's books?! "And the Methods of Pre-Rationality"
+_ "Do not ask for additional services" doxxable? revise?
+_ Yudkowsky's "Is someone trolling?" comment as counterevidence to narcissim
+_ "typographical attack surface" isn't clear
+_ voting reputation section is weak, needs revision
+_ edit "still published under a pseudonym" remark in "A Hill"
_ incoprorate "downvote Eliezer in their head" remark from Jessica's memoir
_ explain the "if the world were at stake" Sword of Good reference better
_ D. also acknowledged AGP
_ It's not clear anyone he usually respects was making this mistake; it seems likely that the original thread was subtweeting Eric Weinstein, who was not making this mistake
_ "I Wish You Well" as breakup song
_ the function of privacy norms is to protect you from people who want to selectively reveal information to hurt you, so it makes sense that I'm particularly careful about Yudkowsky's privacy and not Scott's, because I totally am trying to hurt Yudkowsky (this also protects me from the charge that by granting more privacy to Yudkowsky than Scott, I'm implying that Yudkowsky said something more incriminating; the difference in treatment is about _me_ and my expectations, rather than what they may or may not have said when I tried emailing them); I want it to be clear that I'm attacking him but not betraying him
+_ acknowledge that
_ pull "agreeing with Stalin" quote earlier in ms. to argue that Yudkowsky apparently doesn't disagree with my "deliberately ambiguous"
_ is the title of pt. 4 OK? (agreeing with Stalin _is_ correct when Stalin is right; the problem is that Stalin isn't right about gender)
_ illustrate "student dysphoria is worse" with anecdote about leaving physics class and going to the counselor to see if I could graduate earlier?
_ backlink "(again) whether he accepted the Cheerful Price"
_ backlink "alter the beacon"
_ backlink only seen an escort once before (#confided-to-wilhelm)
+_ backlink Yudkowsky's implicit political concession
terms to explain on first mention—
-_ Valinor
+_ Civilization (context of dath ilan)
+_ Valinor (probably don't name it, actually)
_ "Caliphate"
_ "rationalist"
_ Center for Applied Rationality
_ MIRI
_ "egregore"
+_ eliezera
people to consult before publishing, for feedback or right of objection—
_ Katie (pseudonym choice)
_ Alicorn: about privacy, and for Melkor Glowfic reference link
_ hostile prereader (April, J. Beshir, Swimmer, someone else from Alicorner #drama)
-_ Kelsey (briefly)
+_ Kelsey
_ NRx Twitter bro
_ maybe SK (briefly about his name)? (the memoir might have the opposite problem (too long) from my hostile-shorthand Twitter snipes)
+_ Megan (that poem could easily be about some other entomologist named Megan) ... I'm probably going to cut that §, though
+_ David Xu? (Is it OK to name him in his LW account?)
+_ afford various medical procedures
+_ Buck? (get the story about Michael being escorted from events)
marketing—
_ Twitter
J.D.P. on rationalism's failure
https://extropian.net/notice/ARvZ3pimn8JQIe4yGG
-In one of my notebooks from 2008, I had written, ""
-
Friend of the blog Ninety-Three—
> It's like admiring a society that solves crime by having secret police shoot all bad people in the head. What the fuck!? I suddenly have empathy for the experience of seeing your cult defiled. If I got Isekaied onto dath ilan I would _become a terrorist_.
calculating whether I was "net positive"—I don't know what can be said about the relationship between quantum randomness and macroscopic outcomes, but it seems plausible that there are Everett branches where I died from that salivary stone in 2008
-------
+From "My Way"—
+
+> far enough that the art she learned from others fails her, so that she must remake her shattered art in her own image and in the image of her own task. And then tell the rest of us about it.
+
+> But what I'm finding is not just _the_ Way, the thing that lies at the center of the labyrinth; it is also _my_ Way, the path that I would take to come closer to the center, from whatever place I started out.
+
+> I think there will not be a _proper_ Art until _many_ people have progressed to the point of remaking the Art in their own image, and then radioed back to describe their paths.
+
+
+depression-based forecasting in conversation with Carl
+> seems more ... optimistic, Kurzweilian?... to suppose that the tech gets used correctly the way a sane person would hope it would be used
+
+I like this sentence (from "The Matrix Is a System")—
+> If someone is a force on your epistemics towards the false, robustly to initial conditions and not as a fluke, that person is hostile.
+
+An analogy between my grievance against Yudkowsky and Duncan's grievance against me: I think Yudkowsky is obligated to search for and present "anti-trans" arguments in conjunction with searching for and presenting "pro-trans" arguments. Duncan (I'm wildly guessing??) thinks I'm obligated to search for and present "pro-Duncan" and addition to "anti-Duncan" arguments?? A key disanalogy: Yudkowsky is _afraid_ to post "anti-trans" content; I'm not afraid to post pro-Duncan content; I just think agreements are less interesting than disagreements. To prove the disanalogy, maybe I should write a "Things I Liked About 'Basics of Rationalist Discourse'" post as a peace offering??
+
+"Let's not talk to Eliezer." "He's sad and confusing" Commentary reference??
+
+https://equilibriabook.com/molochs-toolbox/
+
+> All of her fellow employees are vigorously maintaining to anybody outside the hospital itself, should the question arise, that Merrin has always cosplayed as a Sparashki while on duty, in fact nobody's ever seen her out of costume; sure it's a little odd, but lots of people are a little odd.
+>
+> (This is not considered a lie, in that it would be universally understood and expected that no one in this social circumstance would tell the truth.)
+
+I still had Sasha's sleep mask
+
+"Wilhelm" and Steven Kaas aren't Jewish, I think
+
+I agree that Earth is mired in random junk that caught on (like p-values), but ... so are the rats
+
+I'm https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XvN2QQpKTuEzgkZHY/?commentId=f8Gour23gShoSyg8g at gender and categorization
+
+picking cherries from a cherry tree
+
+http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/honesty-and-perjury/#Intent_to_inform
+
+https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/trying-again-on-fideism
+> I come back to this example less often, because it could get me in trouble, but when people do formal anonymous surveys of IQ scientists, they find that most of them believe different races have different IQs and that a substantial portion of the difference is genetic. I don’t think most New York Times readers would identify this as the scientific consensus. So either the surveys - which are pretty official and published in peer-reviewed journals - have managed to compellingly misrepresent expert consensus, or the impressions people get from the media have, or "expert consensus" is extremely variable and complicated and can’t be reflected by a single number or position.
+
+https://nickbostrom.com/astronomical/waste
+
+Michael Vassar has _also_ always been a very complicated person who's changed his emphases in ways Yudkowsky dislikes
+
+
+[TODO:
+Is this the hill _he_ wants to die on? If the world is ending either way, wouldn't it be more dignified for him to die _without_ Stalin's dick in his mouth?
+
+> The Kiritsugu shrugged. "When I have no reason left to do anything, I am someone who tells the truth."
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4pov2tL6SEC23wrkq/epilogue-atonement-8-8
+
+ * Maybe not? If "dignity" is a term of art for log-odds of survival, maybe self-censoring to maintain influence over what big state-backed corporations are doing is "dignified" in that sense
+]
+
+The old vision was nine men and a brain in a box in a basement. (He didn't say _men_.)
+
+Subject: "I give up, I think" 28 January 2013
+> You know, I'm starting to suspect I should just "assume" (choose actions conditional on the hypothesis that) that our species is "already" dead, and we're "mostly" just here because Friendly AI is humanly impossible and we're living in an unFriendly AI's ancestor simulation and/or some form of the anthropic doomsday argument goes through. This, because the only other alternatives I can think of right now are (A) arbitrarily rejecting some part of the "superintelligence is plausible and human values are arbitrary" thesis even though there seem to be extremely strong arguments for it, or (B) embracing a style of thought that caused me an unsustainable amount of emotional distress the other day: specifically, I lost most of a night's sleep being mildly terrified of "near-miss attempted Friendly AIs" that pay attention to humans but aren't actually nice, wondering under what conditions it would be appropriate to commit suicide in advance of being captured by one. Of course, the mere fact that I can't contemplate a hypothesis while remaining emotionally stable shouldn't make it less likely to be true out there in the real world, but in this kind of circumstance, one really must consider the outside view, which insists: "When a human with a history of mental illness invents a seemingly plausible argument in favor of suicide, it is far more likely that they've made a disastrous mistake somewhere, then that committing suicide is actually the right thing to do."
+
+
+[TODO—
+
+The human era wasn't going to last forever. Turing saw it in 1951. ("It seems probable that once the machine thinking method had started, it would not take long to outstrip our feeble powers. [...] At some stage therefore we should have to expect the machines to take control[.]") _George Eliot_ [saw it in _1880_](http://www.online-literature.com/george_eliot/theophrastus-such/17/). ("Am I already in the shadow of the coming race? And will the creatures who are to transcend and supercede us be steely organisms, giving off the effluvia of the laboratory and performing with infallible exactness more than everything that we have performed with a slovenly approximativeness and self-defeating inaccuracy?")
+
+ * I've believed since Kurzweil that technology will remake the world sometime in the 21th century; it's just "the machines won't replace us, because we'll be them" doesn't seem credible
+
+list of lethalities
+
+ * I agree that it would be nice if Earth had a plan; it would be nice if people figured out the stuff Yudkowsky did earlier;
+
+Isaac Asimov wrote about robots in his fiction, and even the problem of alignment (in the form of his Three Laws of Robotics), and yet he still portrayed a future Galactic Empire populated by humans, which seems very silly.
+
+/2017/Jan/from-what-ive-tasted-of-desire/
+
+]
+
+> Similarly, a rationalist isn't just somebody who respects the Truth.
+> All too many people respect the Truth.
+> [...]
+> A rationalist is somebody who respects the _processes of finding truth_.
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HcCpvYLoSFP4iAqSz/rationality-appreciating-cognitive-algorithms
+
+> Why is school like a boner?
+> It’s long and hard unless you're Asian.
+
+Robert Heinlein
+> “What are the facts? Again and again and again – what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable “verdict of history” – what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!”
+https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/38764-what-are-the-facts-again-and-again-and-again
+
+
+ "sender_name": "Zack M. Davis",
+ "timestamp_ms":
+ "content": "at this point, I actually am just starting to hate trans women by default (the visible kind, not the androphilic early-transitioning kind); the \"indulging a mental illness that makes them want to become women\" model is waaaaay more accurate than the standard story, and the people who actually transition are incentivized/selected for self-delusion, which is really unfair to the people who aren't delusional about it",
+ "type": "Generic"
+ },
+ "sender_name":
+ "timestamp_ms": [Sat Jan 21 10:06:17 PST 2017]
+ "content": "I'm afraid to even think that in the privacy of my own head, but I agree with you that is way more reasonable",
+ "type": "Generic"
+
+"but the ideological environment is such that a Harvard biologist/psychologist is afraid to notice blatantly obvious things in the privacy of her own thoughts, that's a really scary situation to be in (insofar as we want society's decisionmakers to be able to notice things so that they can make decisions)",
+
+In October 2016, I messaged an alumna of my App Academy class of November 2013 (back when App Academy was still cool and let you sleep on the floor if you wanted), effectively asking to consult her expertise on feminism. "Maybe you don't want people like me in your bathroom for the same reason you're annoyed by men's behavior on trains?"
+if [...] wrote her own 10,600 draft Document explaining why she thought [...] is actually a girl, that would be really interesting!—but rather that no one else seemed _interested in having a theory_, as opposed to leaping to institute a social convention that, when challenged, is claimed to have no particular consequences and no particular objective truth conditions, even though it's not clear why there would be moral urgency to implement this convention if it weren't for its consequences.
+https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1634338145016909824 re "malinformation"
+> If we don't have the concept of an attack performed by selectively reporting true information - or, less pleasantly, an attack on the predictable misinferences of people we think less rational than ourselves - the only socially acceptable counter is to say the info is false.
+Blanchard Tweets my blog in Feb and March 2017
+https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/830580552562524160
+https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/837846616937750528
\ No newline at end of file
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / blobdiff