✓ Eliezerfic fight: will-to-Truth vs. will-to-happiness [pt. 6]
✓ Eliezerfic fight: Ayn Rand and children's morals [pt. 6]
✓ AI timelines scam [pt. 4]
+✓ "Helen" crash [pt. 2]
+✓ confronting "Helen" [pt. 2]
+✓ Sophia [pt. 2]
+✓ Sophia correspondence details [pt. 2]
+✓ plans to visit Sophia [pt. 2]
+✓ technical discussion with Sophia
+✓ Rob's thread, first contact with Ben [pt. 2]
+✓ A/a alumna consult details [pt. 2]
+✓ touch up Persongen explanation
+✓ touch up "Helen" key photo explanation
+✓ "Dear Totally Excellent Rationalist Friends"
+✓ explain date with "Noreen"
+✓ Lawrence language-policing
+✓ emails from Michael
+✓ October 11th post
+✓ commments on "Dear Totally Excellent Rationalist Friends"
+✓ Daphne Koller and the Methods post
+✓ comments on nice, mean versions [pt. 2]
+✓ mental state and visiting Divia [pt. 2]
+
+- sleepless Valentine's Day [pt. 2]
+_ Sept. 2016 conversation with S.C. [pt. 2]
+_ fully off the rails 15–17 February [pt. 2]
+
+- Eliezerfic fight: Big Yud tests me [pt. 6]
+_ Eliezerfic fight: derail with lintamande [pt. 6]
+_ Eliezerfic fight: knives, and showing myself out [pt. 6]
+
+_ Jan. discussion with "Wilhelm" (should also include Sep. discussion?) [pt. 2]
+_ "model clicked"/Feb. discussion with "Wilhelm" [pt. 2]
+
+_ psych ward [pt. 2]
+_ emailing Blanchard/Bailey/Hsu/Lawrence [pt. 2]
- regrets, wasted time, conclusion [pt. 6]
- December 2019 winter blogging vacation [pt. 4]
_ plan to reach out to Rick [pt. 4]
-_ Eliezerfic fight: Big Yud tests me [pt. 6]
-_ Eliezerfic fight: derail with lintamande [pt. 6]
-_ Eliezerfic fight: knives, and showing myself out [pt. 6]
-
_ reaction to Ziz [pt. 4]
-_ confronting Olivia [pt. 2]
_ State of Steven [pt. 4]
_ Somni [pt. 4]
_ culture off the rails; my warning points to Vaniver [pt. 4]
_ lead-in to Sept. 2021 Twitter altercation [pt. 6]
bigger blocks—
+- the story of my Feb. 2017 Facebook crusade [pt. 2]
+_ the story of my Feb./Apr. 2017 recent madness [pt. 2]
_ Dolphin War finish
_ Michael Vassar and the Theory of Optimal Gossip
-_ psychiatric disaster
-_ the story of my Feb. 2017 Facebook crusade [pt. 2]
-_ the story of my Feb./Apr. 2017 recent madness [pt. 2]
+_ psychiatric disaster
not even blocked—
-_ A/a alumna consult? [pt. 2]
_ "Even our pollution is beneficial" [pt. 6]
_ Scott Aaronson on the blockchain of science [pt. 6]
_ Re: on legitimacy and the entrepreneur; or, continuing the attempt to spread my sociopathic awakening onto Scott [pt. 2 somewhere]
_ include Wilhelm "Gender Czar" conversation? [pt. 2]
_ "EA" brand ate the "rationalism" brand—even visible in MIRI dialogues
_ Anna's heel–face turn
+_ "counterfactual boyfriend"/It's California in the year 2016
+_ not talking about pivotal acts, downstream of not believing in Speech?
it was actually "wander onto the AGI mailing list wanting to build a really big semantic net" (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9HGR5qatMGoz4GhKj/above-average-ai-scientists)
With internet available—
-_ comments on "The Legend of the Extortion War"
+_ T4T
+_ recent EY tweet about not talking about Pivotal acts for fear of being misinterpreted
+_ someone's (Accelia's?) comment about needing a crisis in order to speak
+_ "locate it in the space of possibilities" pt. 2 (locating the hypothesis)
+_ https://avatar.fandom.com/wiki/Avatar_state ?
+_ occasions when it was genuinely on-topic (link to "Changing Emotions" comments)
+_ patterns of refactored agency
+_ check timing of comments on nice/mean versions??
+_ Castro Theatre name/spelling
+_ look at more of the later posts from Facebook meltdown
+_ "Totally Excellent" root of the disagreement
+_ check that "Totally Excellent" comments with Noreen were all before movie date?
+_ Ben "put a Like on my comments", plural?
_ "pretty productive blogging spree" should be links to minor posts
-_ comment on "Timelines Scam" re "The Two-Party Swindle"
-_ "they had to know at some level": link to "why we can't take expected values literally"
-_ publication date of "The AI Timelines Scam"
+_ click-to-reveal spoiler block image
+_ more Discord italics-correction
_ "around plot relevant sentences" ... only revealing, which, specifically?
_ what was I replying to, re: "why you actually don't want to be a happier but less accurate predictor"?
_ relevant screenshots for Eliezerfic play-by-play
_ lc on elves and Sparashki
-_ Nate would later admit that this was a mistake (or ask Jessica where)
_ Michael Bailey's new AGP in women study
_ footnote "said that he wishes he'd never published"
_ replace "Oh man oh jeez" Rick & Morty link
_ Yudkowsky's LW moderation policy
far editing tier—
+_ "Noreen" discussion needs to cover the part where I'd cause less disruption if I transitioned
+_ "Noreen"'s girlfriend definitely needs to be mentioned
+_ get exact dates and correct Sequencing on late 2016 conversations
+_ mention Michael's influence and South Park recs in late 2016?
+_ probably give Amelia as pseudonym?
+_ didn't "Helen" also send me $8 for the key, and the bank statement had her deadname on it?
+_ re Persongen, footnote or sentences about how I knew I was wrong to use naïve-Bayes on facets, but I didn't know what was right
+_ squeeze "Darkness and Light" into the Eliezerfic account
_ clarify Sarah dropping out of the coordination group
_ somewhere in dath ilan discussion: putting a wrapper on graphic porn is fine, de-listing Wikipedia articles is not
_ maybe current-year LW would be better if more marginal cases _had_ bounced off because of e.g. sexism
_ backlink Yudkowsky's implicit political concession
terms to explain on first mention—
+_ TERF?
_ Civilization (context of dath ilan)
_ Valinor (probably don't name it, actually)
_ "Caliphate"
_ "Wilhelm"
_ Scott
_ Anna
+_ "Noreen"
_ secret posse member
-_ Katie (pseudonym choice)
+_ "Chaya" (pseudonym choice)
_ Alicorn: about privacy, and for Melkor Glowfic reference link
_ hostile prereader (April, J. Beshir, Swimmer, someone else from Alicorner #drama)
_ Kelsey
_ David Xu? (Is it OK to name him in his LW account?)
_ afford various medical procedures
_ Buck? (get the story about Michael being escorted from events)
+_ A/a alumna??
marketing—
_ Twitter
_ dropping "and Scott" in Jessica's description of attacking narcissim
_ I think it's OK to copy my friends' language from emails; plagiarism instincts
+Jack Clark's language model editor prompt: "Read this essay and give constructive and critical feedback, paying particular attention to logical inconsistencies or clunky phrasing:"
+
+-------
+
+Friend of the blog Ninety-Three has been nagging me about my pathetic pacing—looking at the diffs of my wordcount spreadsheet, I have four thousand-word days in January, two in February, and two in March (which is half-over). He ... has a point. With no dayjob and no responsibilities, four-figure wordcount days should be normal, something that happens four times a week, not four times a month.
-------
"but the ideological environment is such that a Harvard biologist/psychologist is afraid to notice blatantly obvious things in the privacy of her own thoughts, that's a really scary situation to be in (insofar as we want society's decisionmakers to be able to notice things so that they can make decisions)",
-In October 2016, I messaged an alumna of my App Academy class of November 2013 (back when App Academy was still cool and let you sleep on the floor if you wanted), effectively asking to consult her expertise on feminism. "Maybe you don't want people like me in your bathroom for the same reason you're annoyed by men's behavior on trains?"
+In October 2016,
+
if [...] wrote her own 10,600 draft Document explaining why she thought [...] is actually a girl, that would be really interesting!—but rather that no one else seemed _interested in having a theory_, as opposed to leaping to institute a social convention that, when challenged, is claimed to have no particular consequences and no particular objective truth conditions, even though it's not clear why there would be moral urgency to implement this convention if it weren't for its consequences.
Blanchard Tweets my blog in Feb and March 2017
https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/830580552562524160
-https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/837846616937750528
\ No newline at end of file
+https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/837846616937750528
+
+
+I said that I couldn't help but be reminded of a really great short story that I remembered reading back in—it must have been 'aught-nine. I thought it was called "Darkness and Light", or something like that. It was about a guy who gets transported to a fantasy world where he has a magic axe that yells at him sometimes, and he's prophecied to defeat the bad guy, and he and his allies have to defeat these ogres to reach the bad guy's lair. And when they get there, the bad guy _accuses them of murder_ for killing the ogres on the way there.
+
+(The story was actually Yudkowsky's ["The Sword of Good"](https://www.yudkowsky.net/other/fiction/the-sword-of-good), but I was still enjoying the "Robin Hanson's blog" æsthetic.)
+
+And the moral was—or at least, the moral _I_ got out of it was—there's something messed-up about the way fiction readers just naïvely accept the author's frame, instead of looking at the portrayed world with fresh eyes and applying their _own_ reason and their _own_ morality to it.
+
+need to fit this in somewhere—
+"Gee, I wonder why women-who-happen-to-be-trans are so much more likely to read Slate Star Codex, and be attracted to women, and, um, have penises, than women-who-happen-to-be-cis?"
+
+Everyone believed this in 2005! Everyone _still_ believes this!
+
+
+> Dear Totally Excellent Rationalist Friends:
+> As a transhumanist and someone with a long, long history of fantasizing about having the property, I am of course strongly in favor of there being social norms and institutions that are carefully designed to help people achieve their lifelong dream of acquiring the property, or rather, the best approximation thereof that is achievable given the marked limitations of existing technology.
+> However, it's also kind of important to notice that fantasizing about having the property without having yet sought out interventions to acquire the property, is not the same thing as somehow already literally having the property in some unspecified metaphysical sense! The process of attempting to acquire the property does not propagate backwards in time!
+> This is not an advanced rationality skill! This is the "distinguishing fantasy from reality" skill! I realize that explaining this in clear language has the potential to hurt some people's feelings! Unfortunately, as an aspiring epistemic rationalist (epistemic rationality is the only kind of rationality; "instrumental rationality" is a phrase someone made up in order to make themselves feel better about lying), I have a GODDAMNED MORAL RESPONSIBILITY to hurt that person's feelings!
+> People should get what they want. We should have social norms that are carefully designed to help people get what they want. Unfortunately, helping people get the things that they want is a hard problem, because people are complicated and the world is complicated. That's why, when renegotiating social norms to apply to a historically unprecedented situation, it's important to have a meta-norm of not socially punishing people for clearly describing a hypothesis about the nature of the problem people are trying to solve, even if the hypothesis hurts someone's feelings, and even if there would probably be genuinely bad consequences if the hypothesis were to be believed by the masses of ordinary dumb people who hate our guts anyway.
+> I'm proud of my history of fantasizing about having the property, and I'm proud of my rationalist community, and I don't want either of them taken over by CRAZY PEOPLE WHO THINK THEY CAN EDIT THE PAST.
+(170 comments)
+
+
+> So, unfortunately, I never got very far in the _Daphne Koller and the Methods of Rationality_ book (yet! growth m—splat, AUGH), but one thing I do remember is that many different Bayesian networks can represent the same probability distribution. And the reason I've been running around yelling at everyone for nine months is that I've been talking to people, and we _agree_ on the observations that need to be explained, and yet we explain them in completely different ways. And I'm like, "My network has SO MANY FEWER ARROWS than your network!" And they're like, "Huh? What's wrong with you? Your network isn't any better than the standard-issue network. Why do you care so much about this completely arbitrary property 'number of arrows'? Categories were made for the man, not man for the categories!" And I'm like, "Look, I didn't get far enough in the _Daphne Koller and the Methods of Rationality_ book to understand why, but I'm PRETTY GODDAMNED SURE that HAVING FEWER ARROWS MAKES YOU MORE POWERFUL. YOU DELUSIONAL BASTARDS! HOW CAN YOU POSSIBLY GET THIS WRONG please don't hurt me Oh God please don't hurt me I'm sorry I'm sorry."
+
+> The truthful and mean version: _The Man Who Would Be Queen_, Ch. 9
+> The truthful and nice version: "Becoming What We Love" [http://annelawrence.com/becoming_what_we_love.pdf](http://annelawrence.com/becoming_what_we_love.pdf)
+> The technically-not-lying version: [http://www.avitale.com/developmentalreview.htm](http://www.avitale.com/developmentalreview.htm)
+> The long version: [https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/](https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/)
+(180 comments)
+
+the other week, "Chaya" had put up a matchmaking thread on her Facebook wall, hoping to connect friends of hers looking for new romantic partners, and also reminding people about _reciprocity.io_, a site someone in the community had set up to match people to date or hang out with. Brent Dill had commented that _reciprocity.io_ had been useless, and I said (on 7 February) that the hang-out matching had been valuable to me, even if the romantic matching was useless for insufficiently high-status males.
+
+matchmaking thread (thread was 4 February, relevant comments were 7 February): https://www.facebook.com/Katie.Cohen821/posts/pfbid02PNKKSCBTC99ULzPsueKvZkYmpNvELrkEfGymcrAfWZPu39LRCyh2bE4a9Ht3yg3Dl
+
+
+Sat Feb 11 12:49:33 PST 2017
+just like it's possible to identify as a woman despite not having unusually many female-typical traits, it's also possible to identify as a liberal despite not having unusually many liberal-typical beliefs
+
+
+
+ "sender_name": "Zack M. Davis",
+ "timestamp_ms": 1530601286979,
+ "content": "and am continually haunted by the suspicion that the conjunction of my biological
+sex and my highly refined taste for bullet-biting, may not be a coincidence",
+ "type": "Generic"
+ },
+ {
+ "sender_name": "Zack M. Davis",
+ "timestamp_ms": 1530601211347,
+ "content": "I always want to fantasize that if I were a woman, I would have the strength to bi
+te the bullet, \"Yes, we masculine-of-center women are forming the coalition to petition for better
+treatment by Society, while acknowleding that there are systematic evolutionary reasons why Society
+is this way currently\"",
+ "type": "Generic"
+ },
+ {
+ "sender_name": "Zack M. Davis",
+ "timestamp_ms": 1530601116141,
+ "content": "there was a NRx whose take [...] was so disagreeable that he got downvoted into oblivion on /r/slatestarcodex (and remember, /r/slatestarcodex is already pretty right-wing by San Francisco standards) who also had a post on the \"feminism appeals to masculine-of-center women\" hypothesis http://www.ericwulff.com/blog/?p=1861 which deserves more credit than it gets (it acknowledges within-group variation!)",
+ "type": "Generic"
+
+
+----
+
+He doesn't want to talk about pivotal acts because because anything he says in public might be misinterpreted—but, how does the disutility of being misinterpreted plausibly outweigh the utility of someone having something useful to say?? I feel like his modern answer is some variation of "Everyone but me is retarded", but—that's not what he thought about decision theory back in 2010, when he validated/honored Wei Dai and Vladimir Nesov's contributions! (find cite) And now, he says he wish he hadn't talked about decision theory ...
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / blobdiff