marked TODO blocks—
-✓ Slate Star Codex went down [pt. 4]
-✓ revise pseudonymity graf [pt. 2]
-✓ Transgender Map mis-doxxed me [pt. 2]
-_ "If Clarity" recap intro [pt. 4]
-_ "Agreeing with Stalin" recap intro [pt. 5]
-_ confronting Olivia [pt. 2]
-_ last day at SwiftStack, alt-right quip [pt. 2]
+- Boston [pt. 5]
+✓ I wish Richard Feynman was trans [pt. 2]
+- social justice and defying threats [pt. 5]
+- Jessica's experience at MIRI and CfAR [pt. 5]
+_ last email and not bothering him [pt. 6]
+_ autogenderphilia (in-line section) [pt. 4]
+_ New York [pt. 6]
+_ reaction to Ziz [pt. 4]
+_ "Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception" [pt. 4]
+_ the Death With Dignity era [pt. 6]
_ scuffle on "Yes Requires the Possibility" [pt. 4]
-_ Steven's gravity objection [pt. 4]
+_ confronting Olivia [pt. 2]
_ "Lesswrong.com is dead to me" [pt. 4]
-_ "Some Clarifications on Rationalist Blogging" [pt. 4]
_ AI timelines scam [pt. 4]
_ secret thread with Ruby [pt. 4]
_ progress towards discussing the real thing [pt. 4]
_ epistemic defense meeting [pt. 4]
_ State of Steven [pt. 4]
-_ more philosophy of language blogging [pt. 4]
_ Somni [pt. 4]
_ rude maps [pt. 4]
_ culture off the rails; my warning points to Vaniver [pt. 4]
_ plan to reach out to Rick [pt. 4]
_ complicity and friendship [pt. 4]
_ pandemic starts [pt. 4]
-_ autogenderphilia is common [pt. 4]
_ out of patience email [pt. 4]
-_ "Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception" [pt. 4]
-_ recap of crimes, cont'd [pt. 5]
-_ AlphaGo seemed deeper [pt. 5]
-_ social justice and defying threats [pt. 5]
-_ lead-in to Sept. 2021 Twitter altercation [pt. 5]
-_ Jessica's experience at MIRI and CfAR [pt. 5]
-_ the Death With Dignity era [pt. 5]
-_ regrets, wasted time, conclusion [pt. 5]
+_ the hill he wants to die on [pt. 6]
+_ recap of crimes, cont'd [pt. 6]
+_ lead-in to Sept. 2021 Twitter altercation [pt. 6]
+_ regrets, wasted time, conclusion [pt. 6]
+
+not even blocked—
+_ Re: on legitimacy and the entrepreneur; or, continuing the attempt to spread my sociopathic awakening onto Scott [pt. 2 somewhere]
+_ running away to Burlingame; Hamilton tickets
+_ "Even our pollution is beneficial"
_ include Wilhelm "Gender Czar" conversation? [pt. 2]
bigger blocks—
_ psychiatric disaster
_ the story of my Feb. 2017 Facebook crusade [pt. 2]
_ the story of my Feb./Apr. 2017 recent madness [pt. 2]
-_ reaction to Ziz
35 smaller TODO blocks × 3/day = 12 days
7 bigger blocks × day/2.5 = 17.5 days
= 29.5 workdays × 7 sidereal days / 6 workdays = 34.4 sidereal days
-= gaplass draft on 17 February??
+= gapless draft on 17 February??
+
+Less delusionally optimistic time estimate—
+32 TODO block × 1/workday = 32 days
+7 bigger blocks × workday/4 = 28 days
+= 60 workdays × 7 sidereal days / 5 workdays = 84 sidereal days
+= gapless draft on 18 April???
+
+
+it was actually "wander onto the AGI mailing list wanting to build a really big semantic net" (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9HGR5qatMGoz4GhKj/above-average-ai-scientists)
With internet available—
-_ archive.is misdoxxing
-_ negative utilitarian Planecrash tag
-_ my Tweet about upgrading to a block
-_ more tags on Ordinary Merrin
-_ tag giving full name of Keepers
-_ 2014 April Fool's Day confession
-_ Keltham's masochism insight
-_ archive.is Nov. 2016 Scott Tumblr pushback
-_ check summary of Nov. 2016 link
-_ Smallpox Eradication Day
-_ privacy ask
-_ May 2019 thread vs. Vanessa
-_ historical accuracy of Gallileo
-_ explain the "if the world were at stake" _Sword of Good_ reference better
-_ a poem I wrote in the _Less Wrong_ comments in 2011
+_ Whining-Based Communities
+_ Feynman strip club anecdote?? And reference in "In the Ruins"
+_ When did I buy the Susan Pinker book? Probably 2008 (confirm date of "Those are magnets")
+_ Ione "good things don't cancel out bad things"
+_ escort photo comment
+_ love to know some positive integer number of plans
_ "not hard to find": link to more /r/itsafetish-like anecdotes
+_ compile ancillary KP doctor's notes page and linky
+_ go back and read all the masochism tags: https://www.glowfic.com/replies/search?board_id=&author_id=366&template_id=&character_id=&subj_content=masochism&sort=created_old&condensed=on&commit=Search
_ stats of SIAI vs. SingInst hits (for ^siai footnote)
-_ Yudkowsky on AlphaGo
-_ larger Extropy quote than "otherwise identical"
_ quote other Eliezer Yudkowsky facts
_ footnote about Scott writing six times faster than me
_ include Eric Weinstein in archive.is spree
_ Yudkowsky's LW moderation policy
far editing tier—
+_ incoprorate "downvote Eliezer in their head" remark from Jessica's memoir
+_ explain the "if the world were at stake" Sword of Good reference better
+_ D. also acknowledged AGP
_ "no one else would have spoken" should have been a call-to-action to read more widely
_ explain who Kay Brown is
+_ "Great Common Task" is probably capitalized
_ mention Will MacAskill's gimped "longtermism" somehow
_ re-read a DALL-E explanation and decide if I think it's less scary now
_ Scott Aaronson on the blockchain of science https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6821
_ contract-drafting em, SSC blogroll is most of my traffic
_ "Common Interest of Many Causes" and "Kolmogorov Complicity" offer directly contradictory strategies
_ Vassar's about-face on gender
+_ better introduction of S.K.
_ risk of people bouncing off progressivism
_ an AGP teen boy could at least consent to transition, and make plans based on knowing what the thing is (you'd actually want to go through a little bit of male puberty)
+_ better explanation of Scott's jailbreaking accusation against Vassar
+_ archive.is karma history for Jessica's post
+_ "tossed in a bucket" is ignoring advice from Sept. 2022 clarification to be clear about the type distinction
+_ explicitly explain "Hill of Validity" title inversion
_ figure out full timeline of which of my Less Wrong posts to mention
_ update "80,000 words" refs with the near-final wordcount
-
+_ the "outright bad faith" clause in "Your Price for Joining"
+_ less afraid of hurting O.
+_ secret posse member pointing out that it worked better because it was Oli
+_ update "karma at press time"
+_ better explain "lie inflation" ambiguity
+_ Facing Reality
+_ backlink condemning Emperor Norton Conspiracy
+_ backlink AGP in women post (time permitting) in pt. 2 "don't think it's the same thing"
+_ backlink "I've decided to drop the pseudonym" to pen name drop post
+_ backlink (/2022/TODO/blanchards-dangerous-idea-and-the-plight-of-the-lucid-crossdreamer/)
+_ backlink "I again refer to" Happy Price
+_ backlink "(again) whether he accepted the Cheerful Price"
+_ backlink "alter the beacon"
+_ backlink only seen an escort once before (#confided-to-wilhelm)
terms to explain on first mention—
_ Valinor
_ Alicorn: about privacy, and for Melkor Glowfic reference link
_ hostile prereader (April, J. Beshir, Swimmer, someone else from Alicorner #drama)
_ Kelsey (briefly)
+_ NRx Twitter bro
_ maybe SK (briefly about his name)? (the memoir might have the opposite problem (too long) from my hostile-shorthand Twitter snipes)
marketing—
I hate that my religion is bottlenecked on one guy
-https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fStCX6RXmgxkTBe73/towards-a-weaker-longtermism?commentId=Kga3KGx6WAhkNM3qY
-> I am broadly fine with people devoting 50%, 25% or 75% of themselves to longtermism, in that case, as opposed to tearing themselves apart with guilt and ending up doing nothing much, which seems to be the main alternative.
-
https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1405032189708816385
> Egregore psychology is much easier and more knowable than individual human psychology, for the same reason macroscopic matter is more predictable than individual particles. But trying to tell people what the egregore is doing doesn't work because they don't believe in egregores!!
-https://glowfic.com/replies/1882395#reply-1882395
-> the stranger from dath ilan never pretended to be anyone's friend after he stopped being their friend.
-Similarly, you should stop pretending to be a rationality teacher if you're going to be corrupted by politics
-
20 June 2021, "The egregore doesn't care about the past", thematic moments at Valinor
-
You don't want to have a reputation that isn't true; I've screwed up confidentiality before, so I don't want a "good at keeping secrets" reputation; if Yudkowsky doesn't want to live up to the standard of "not being a partisan hack", then ...
Extended analogy between "Scott Alexander is always right" and "Trying to trick me into cutting my dick off"—in neither case would any sane person take it literally, but it's pointing at something important (Scott and EY are trusted intellectual authorities, rats are shameless about transition cheerleading)
https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1404697716689489921
> I have never in my own life tried to persuade anyone to go trans (or not go trans)—I don't imagine myself to understand others that much.
-If you think it "sometimes personally prudent and not community-harmful" to got out of your way to say positive things about Republican candidates and never, ever say positive things about Democratic candidates (because you "don't see what the alternative is besides getting shot"), you can see why eople might regard you as a _Republican shill_—even if all the things you said were true, and even if you never told any specific individual, "You should vote Republican."
+If you think it "sometimes personally prudent and not community-harmful" to go out of your way to say positive things about Republican candidates and never, ever say positive things about Democratic candidates (because you "don't see what the alternative is besides getting shot"), you can see why people might regard you as a _Republican shill_—even if all the things you said were true, and even if you never told any specific individual, "You should vote Republican."
https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10154110278349228
> Just checked my filtered messages on Facebook and saw, "Your post last night was kind of the final thing I needed to realize that I'm a girl."
https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1404821285276774403
> It is not trans-specific. When people tell me I helped them, I mostly believe them and am happy.
]
+
+the rats were supposed to be an alternative to academic orthodoxy (such that we could just jump to the correct decision theory without the political fighting needing to dethrone CDT), but we're still under the authority of the egregore
+
+(from October 2016 email to Scott)
+This is not an advanced rationalist skill! This is the "distinguishing fantasy from reality" skill! People will quote your "Categories Were Made for the Man" in defense of the idea that someone can be biologically male, think of themselves as a boy, be thought of by others as a boy, and yet still actually have been a girl at the time by virtue of deciding to transition years later. I've been told that "Gender is a floating tag which has one substantial consequence, which is comfort of the people being addressed"!
+
+https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1612937#reply-1612937
+> Citizens can't control processes they can't see. For that clever-reason it was then illegal for any of the Nine Legislators to meet with each other, or speak with any Representative, except as a matter of public record.
+
+November 5, 2019
+11/5/19, 2:09 AM
+Ziz
+Ziz
+To your memory, am I under any confidentiality agreements with you? Or did we mutually release each other from the only one that one time?
+November 5, 2019
+11/5/19, 9:24 AM
+You sent
+you are not under any confidentiality agreements with me
+
+https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1764946#reply-1764946
+> This is Keltham desperately pretending not to be at all starstruck, because he was not previously way into the Merrin fandom but even he has heard of the Ordinary Merrin Conspiracy, wherein Merrin has some weird psychological hangup about believing she is a totally normal and ordinary person or even something of a struggling low achiever, and everybody in Civilization is coordinating to pretend around her that ordinary normal people totally get their weird Exception Handling training scenarios televised to a million watchers on a weekly basis.
+
+> It makes her - simultaneously an ultra-high-achieving role model who's much more famous than you are, and also, somebody who's committing this very large cognitive error where you know better than her about it. Which is not usually something you can say about a major public figure, you would not usually expect to be in a position where you would ever know about a cognitive error a public figure was committing, because they'd already have advisors much much smarter than you. But if you screw Merrin, you're not, like, just some strictly vastly inferior being that she's allowed into her cuddleroom. There is at least one topic you could totally win an argument with her about, as judged by impartial judges: namely, is she in fact a fairly ordinary person really. But you must never ever mention it in front of her.
+
+for normal people, when your favorite author gets worse, you just shrug and accept it and enjoy the classics, but when your favorite author is also the Pope of your religion and also in several Discord servers with you, you end up wasting a lot of time scrutinizing their emoji-reacts
+
+For the unfamiliar: the [doctrine here](https://medium.com/@cassiebrighter/please-write-trans-women-as-two-words-487f153444fb) is that "trans" is an adjective indicating a type of woman.
+
+I write the space everywhere because that's the dominant usage ([since 2011](https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=transman%2Ctrans+man%2Ctranswoman%2Ctrans+woman&year_start=2000&year_end=2022), according to Google ngrams). I don't want to turn off potential readers by failing a simple shibboleth test; I want those readers to be turned off by my actual ideas.
+
+(_I_ don't censor my comment sections of people whom it "looks like it would be unhedonic to spend time interacting with".)
+
+-----
+
+ * Yudkowsky is _on the record_ [claiming that](https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10154078468809228) "for people roughly similar to the Bay Area / European mix", he is "over 50% probability at this point that at least 20% of the ones with penises are actually women". What ... does that mean? What is the _truth condition_ of the word 'woman' in that sentence? This can't be the claim that 20% of males would benefit from a gender transition, and in that sense _become_ "transsexual women"; the claim stated in the post is that members of this group are _already_ "actually women", "female-minds-in-male-bodies". How does Yudkowsky reconcile this claim with the perponderance of male-typical rather than female-typical behavior in this group (_e.g._, in gynephilic sexual orientation, or [in vocational interests](/2020/Nov/survey-data-on-cis-and-trans-women-among-haskell-programmers/))? On the other hand, if Yudkowsky changed his mind and no longer believes that 20% of Bay Area males of European descent have female brains, can he state that for the public record? _Reply!_
+
+ * Yudkowsky is _on the record_ [claiming that](https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10159421750419228?comment_id=10159421986539228&reply_comment_id=10159423713134228) he "do[es] not know what it feels like from the inside to feel like a pronoun is attached to something in your head much more firmly than 'doesn't look like an Oliver' is attached to something in your head." As I explained in "Challenges to Yudkowsky's Pronoun Reform Proposal", [quoting examples from Yudkowsky's published writing in which he treated sex and pronouns as synonymous just as one would expect a native American English speaker born in 1979 to do](/2022/Mar/challenges-to-yudkowskys-pronoun-reform-proposal/#look-like-an-oliver), this self-report is not plausible. The claim may not have been a "lie" _in the sense_ of Yudkowsky consciously harboring deliberative intent to deceive at the time he typed that sentence, but it _is_ a "lie" in the sense that the claim is _false_ and Yudkowsky _knows_ it's false (although its falsehood may not have been salient in the moment of typing the sentence). If Yudkowsky expects people to believe that he never lies, perhaps he could correct this accidental lie after it's been pointed out? _Reply!_
+
+-----
+
+> Well, YES. Paying taxes to the organization that runs ICE, or voting for whichever politician runs against Trump, or trading with a doctor benefiting from an occupational licensing regime; these acts would all be great evils if you weren't trapped.
+https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1216788984367419392
+
+https://twitter.com/jd_pressman/status/1617257360933945344
+> And that the current discourse of "don't advance capabilities, don't think about SOTA, stop thinking, pursue orthogonal directions" is basically about maximizing confusion, minimizing the probability you have any chance of pulling alignment out of the distribution of AI ideas.
+
+https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1897710#reply-1897710
+> a dath ilani tragedy isn't about the triumph of Evil over Good. It's about the triumph of erroneous reasoning and ill-coordination over everyone
+
+https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1735044#reply-1735044
+> my suspicion is that not many sadists in dath ilan know what they are and Civilization tries to prevent us from finding out, because dath ilan does not have masochists.
+
+https://www.truthdig.com/dig/nick-bostrom-longtermism-and-the-eternal-return-of-eugenics/
+
+https://graymirror.substack.com/p/the-boomer-map
+> The lower class _wants_ an upper class it can genuinely look up to. The feeling that Harvard has gone insane is like realizing that Mom and Dad are both on heroin.
+
+25 January 2022: I hesitated for a long time before leaving a comment about Cicero on the Alexander/Yudkowsky dialogue, shows I'm still culty (calculating whether I'm allowed to speak on a post he coauthored; I linked "EA should blurt")
+
+J.D.P. on rationalism's failure
+https://extropian.net/notice/ARvZ3pimn8JQIe4yGG
+
+In one of my notebooks from 2008, I had written, ""
+
+Friend of the blog Ninety-Three—
+> It's like admiring a society that solves crime by having secret police shoot all bad people in the head. What the fuck!? I suddenly have empathy for the experience of seeing your cult defiled. If I got Isekaied onto dath ilan I would _become a terrorist_.
+
+(Terrorism wouldn't work)
+
+Sep 27 text to "Chaya"—
+In theory, the bad influence could go both ways: first, successful playdate, then I mention to A. afterwards (not before) that C. is actually a boy and I think it's crazy everyone is pretending otherwise (which remark is out of their censorship jurisdiction); then if C. wants a repeat with new friend (far from guaranteed, but plausible), it's not your fault if A. leaks information of her own will ...
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / blobdiff