✓ Boston [pt. 6]
✓ Jessica's experience at MIRI and CfAR [pt. 6]
✓ pandemic starts [pt. 4]
-_ autogenderphilia (in-line section) [pt. 4]
-_ last email and not bothering him [pt. 6]
-_ New York [pt. 6]
-_ reaction to Ziz [pt. 4]
-_ "Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception" [pt. 4]
-_ the Death With Dignity era [pt. 6]
-_ scuffle on "Yes Requires the Possibility" [pt. 4]
-_ confronting Olivia [pt. 2]
-_ "Lesswrong.com is dead to me" [pt. 4]
-_ AI timelines scam [pt. 4]
+✓ autogenderphilia (in-line section) [pt. 4]
+✓ last email and not bothering him [pt. 6]
+✓ the Death With Dignity era [pt. 6]
+✓ New York [pt. 6]
+✓ scuffle on "Yes Requires the Possibility" [pt. 4]
+✓ "Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception" [pt. 4]
+✓ Eliezerfic fight: will-to-Truth vs. will-to-happiness [pt. 6]
+✓ Eliezerfic fight: Ayn Rand and children's morals [pt. 6]
+✓ AI timelines scam [pt. 4]
+✓ "Helen" crash [pt. 2]
+✓ confronting "Helen" [pt. 2]
+✓ Sophia [pt. 2]
+✓ Sophia correspondence details [pt. 2]
+✓ plans to visit Sophia [pt. 2]
+✓ technical discussion with Sophia
+✓ Rob's thread, first contact with Ben [pt. 2]
+✓ A/a alumna consult details [pt. 2]
+
+- Eliezerfic fight: Big Yud tests me [pt. 6]
+_ Eliezerfic fight: derail with lintamande [pt. 6]
+_ Eliezerfic fight: knives, and showing myself out [pt. 6]
+
+_ Facebook tantrum [pt. 2]
+_ psych ward [pt. 2]
+_ emailing Blanchard/Bailey/Hsu/Lawrence [pt. 2]
+
+- regrets, wasted time, conclusion [pt. 6]
+
+- "Lesswrong.com is dead to me" [pt. 4]
_ secret thread with Ruby [pt. 4]
_ progress towards discussing the real thing [pt. 4]
_ epistemic defense meeting [pt. 4]
+
+- December 2019 winter blogging vacation [pt. 4]
+_ plan to reach out to Rick [pt. 4]
+
+
+_ reaction to Ziz [pt. 4]
_ State of Steven [pt. 4]
_ Somni [pt. 4]
-_ rude maps [pt. 4]
_ culture off the rails; my warning points to Vaniver [pt. 4]
-_ December 2019 winter blogging vacation [pt. 4]
-_ plan to reach out to Rick [pt. 4]
_ complicity and friendship [pt. 4]
_ out of patience email [pt. 4]
-_ the hill he wants to die on [pt. 6]
+_ the hill he wants to die on [pt. 6?]
_ recap of crimes, cont'd [pt. 6]
_ lead-in to Sept. 2021 Twitter altercation [pt. 6]
-_ regrets, wasted time, conclusion [pt. 6]
+
+bigger blocks—
+- the story of my Feb. 2017 Facebook crusade [pt. 2]
+_ the story of my Feb./Apr. 2017 recent madness [pt. 2]
+_ Dolphin War finish
+_ Michael Vassar and the Theory of Optimal Gossip
+_ psychiatric disaster
not even blocked—
_ "Even our pollution is beneficial" [pt. 6]
_ include Wilhelm "Gender Czar" conversation? [pt. 2]
_ "EA" brand ate the "rationalism" brand—even visible in MIRI dialogues
_ Anna's heel–face turn
-
-bigger blocks—
-_ dath ilan and Eliezerfic fight
-_ Dolphin War finish
-_ Michael Vassar and the Theory of Optimal Gossip
-_ psychiatric disaster
-_ the story of my Feb. 2017 Facebook crusade [pt. 2]
-_ the story of my Feb./Apr. 2017 recent madness [pt. 2]
-
+_ "counterfactual boyfriend"/It's California in the year 2016
+
it was actually "wander onto the AGI mailing list wanting to build a really big semantic net" (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9HGR5qatMGoz4GhKj/above-average-ai-scientists)
With internet available—
-_ what does "pervue" mean
-_ archive.is https://twitter.com/KirkegaardEmil/status/1425334398484983813
-_ group yelling operation quotes
-_ "Vassarite"
-_ Nate would later admit that this was a mistake
-_ indulgence
-_ "gene drive" terminology
-_ double-check "All rates" language
+✓ matchmaking thread (thread was 4 February, relevant comments were 7 February): https://www.facebook.com/Katie.Cohen821/posts/pfbid02PNKKSCBTC99ULzPsueKvZkYmpNvELrkEfGymcrAfWZPu39LRCyh2bE4a9Ht3yg3Dl
+✓ download Weisberg et al.
+✓ https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1633396201427984384 "As somebody who's sane but not autistic, it's been very odd to watch the meaning of the formerly technical term 'autistic' expand and mutate to mean 'sane'."
+✓ Nate would later admit that this was a mistake: https://intelligence.org/2015/12/11/openai-and-other-news/
+✓ my October 11th? https://www.facebook.com/zmdavis/posts/10154424272680199
+✓ Sophia's October 11?
+✓ "Helen" key photo
+✓ heliocentrism tag
+_ "pretty productive blogging spree" should be links to minor posts
+_ look back at all the Facebook posts I cite in my outline
+-----
+_ click-to-reveal spoiler block image
+_ more Discord italics-correction
+_ "around plot relevant sentences" ... only revealing, which, specifically?
+_ what was I replying to, re: "why you actually don't want to be a happier but less accurate predictor"?
+_ relevant screenshots for Eliezerfic play-by-play
+_ lc on elves and Sparashki
+_ Michael Bailey's new AGP in women study
_ footnote "said that he wishes he'd never published"
-_ hate-warp tag
_ replace "Oh man oh jeez" Rick & Morty link
_ Nevada bona fides
_ Parfit's Hitchhiker
-_ Heinlein on "Get the facts!"
_ double-check correctness of Keltham-on-paternalism link
_ Arbital TDT explanation
_ find Sequences cite "if you don't know how your AI works, that's bad"
_ Yudkowsky's LW moderation policy
far editing tier—
+_ facet/residual Persongen explanation could use some work
+_ squeeze "Darkness and Light" into the Eliezerfic account
+_ clarify Sarah dropping out of the coordination group
+_ somewhere in dath ilan discussion: putting a wrapper on graphic porn is fine, de-listing Wikipedia articles is not
+_ maybe current-year LW would be better if more marginal cases _had_ bounced off because of e.g. sexism
+_ footnote to explain that when I'm summarizing a long Discord conversation to taste, I might move things around into "logical" time rather than "real time"; e.g. Yudkowsky's "powerfully relevant" and "but Superman" comments were actually one right after the other; and, e.g., I'm filling in more details that didn't make it into the chat, like innate kung fu
+_ re "EY is a fraud": it's a _conditional_ that he can modus tollens if he wants
+_ NRx point about HBD being more than IQ, ties in with how I think the focus on IQ is distasteful, but I have political incentives to bring it up
+_ "arguing for a duty to self-censorship"—contrast to my "closing thoughts" email
_ explain Amelia Davis Ford ref
+_ New York NRx conversation, flesh out "mostly guys"; I was acknowleding diversity as unrealistic and hypocritical; he outright doesn't believe in "people" as opposed to men/women
_ fold in observations from "trapped priors—at home"
_ earlier reference the children's books?! "And the Methods of Pre-Rationality"
_ "Do not ask for additional services" doxxable? revise?
_ backlink "(again) whether he accepted the Cheerful Price"
_ backlink "alter the beacon"
_ backlink only seen an escort once before (#confided-to-wilhelm)
+_ backlink Yudkowsky's implicit political concession
terms to explain on first mention—
_ Civilization (context of dath ilan)
-_ Valinor
+_ Valinor (probably don't name it, actually)
_ "Caliphate"
_ "rationalist"
_ Center for Applied Rationality
_ MIRI
_ "egregore"
+_ eliezera
people to consult before publishing, for feedback or right of objection—
_ Katie (pseudonym choice)
_ Alicorn: about privacy, and for Melkor Glowfic reference link
_ hostile prereader (April, J. Beshir, Swimmer, someone else from Alicorner #drama)
-_ Kelsey (briefly)
+_ Kelsey
_ NRx Twitter bro
_ maybe SK (briefly about his name)? (the memoir might have the opposite problem (too long) from my hostile-shorthand Twitter snipes)
-_ Megan (that poem could easily be about some other entomologist named Megan)
+_ Megan (that poem could easily be about some other entomologist named Megan) ... I'm probably going to cut that §, though
+_ David Xu? (Is it OK to name him in his LW account?)
+_ afford various medical procedures
+_ Buck? (get the story about Michael being escorted from events)
+_ A/a alumna??
marketing—
_ Twitter
_ dropping "and Scott" in Jessica's description of attacking narcissim
_ I think it's OK to copy my friends' language from emails; plagiarism instincts
+Jack Clark's language model editor prompt: "Read this essay and give constructive and critical feedback, paying particular attention to logical inconsistencies or clunky phrasing:"
+
+-------
+
+Friend of the blog Ninety-Three has been nagging me about my pathetic pacing—looking at the diffs of my wordcount spreadsheet, I have four thousand-word days in January, two in February, and two in March (which is half-over). He ... has a point. With no dayjob and no responsibilities, four-figure wordcount days should be normal, something that happens four times a week, not four times a month.
-------
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4pov2tL6SEC23wrkq/epilogue-atonement-8-8
* Maybe not? If "dignity" is a term of art for log-odds of survival, maybe self-censoring to maintain influence over what big state-backed corporations are doing is "dignified" in that sense
-]
\ No newline at end of file
+]
+
+The old vision was nine men and a brain in a box in a basement. (He didn't say _men_.)
+
+Subject: "I give up, I think" 28 January 2013
+> You know, I'm starting to suspect I should just "assume" (choose actions conditional on the hypothesis that) that our species is "already" dead, and we're "mostly" just here because Friendly AI is humanly impossible and we're living in an unFriendly AI's ancestor simulation and/or some form of the anthropic doomsday argument goes through. This, because the only other alternatives I can think of right now are (A) arbitrarily rejecting some part of the "superintelligence is plausible and human values are arbitrary" thesis even though there seem to be extremely strong arguments for it, or (B) embracing a style of thought that caused me an unsustainable amount of emotional distress the other day: specifically, I lost most of a night's sleep being mildly terrified of "near-miss attempted Friendly AIs" that pay attention to humans but aren't actually nice, wondering under what conditions it would be appropriate to commit suicide in advance of being captured by one. Of course, the mere fact that I can't contemplate a hypothesis while remaining emotionally stable shouldn't make it less likely to be true out there in the real world, but in this kind of circumstance, one really must consider the outside view, which insists: "When a human with a history of mental illness invents a seemingly plausible argument in favor of suicide, it is far more likely that they've made a disastrous mistake somewhere, then that committing suicide is actually the right thing to do."
+
+
+[TODO—
+
+The human era wasn't going to last forever. Turing saw it in 1951. ("It seems probable that once the machine thinking method had started, it would not take long to outstrip our feeble powers. [...] At some stage therefore we should have to expect the machines to take control[.]") _George Eliot_ [saw it in _1880_](http://www.online-literature.com/george_eliot/theophrastus-such/17/). ("Am I already in the shadow of the coming race? And will the creatures who are to transcend and supercede us be steely organisms, giving off the effluvia of the laboratory and performing with infallible exactness more than everything that we have performed with a slovenly approximativeness and self-defeating inaccuracy?")
+
+ * I've believed since Kurzweil that technology will remake the world sometime in the 21th century; it's just "the machines won't replace us, because we'll be them" doesn't seem credible
+
+list of lethalities
+
+ * I agree that it would be nice if Earth had a plan; it would be nice if people figured out the stuff Yudkowsky did earlier;
+
+Isaac Asimov wrote about robots in his fiction, and even the problem of alignment (in the form of his Three Laws of Robotics), and yet he still portrayed a future Galactic Empire populated by humans, which seems very silly.
+
+/2017/Jan/from-what-ive-tasted-of-desire/
+
+]
+
+> Similarly, a rationalist isn't just somebody who respects the Truth.
+> All too many people respect the Truth.
+> [...]
+> A rationalist is somebody who respects the _processes of finding truth_.
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HcCpvYLoSFP4iAqSz/rationality-appreciating-cognitive-algorithms
+
+> Why is school like a boner?
+> It’s long and hard unless you're Asian.
+
+Robert Heinlein
+> “What are the facts? Again and again and again – what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable “verdict of history” – what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!”
+https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/38764-what-are-the-facts-again-and-again-and-again
+
+
+ "sender_name": "Zack M. Davis",
+ "timestamp_ms":
+ "content": "at this point, I actually am just starting to hate trans women by default (the visible kind, not the androphilic early-transitioning kind); the \"indulging a mental illness that makes them want to become women\" model is waaaaay more accurate than the standard story, and the people who actually transition are incentivized/selected for self-delusion, which is really unfair to the people who aren't delusional about it",
+ "type": "Generic"
+ },
+ "sender_name":
+ "timestamp_ms": [Sat Jan 21 10:06:17 PST 2017]
+ "content": "I'm afraid to even think that in the privacy of my own head, but I agree with you that is way more reasonable",
+ "type": "Generic"
+
+"but the ideological environment is such that a Harvard biologist/psychologist is afraid to notice blatantly obvious things in the privacy of her own thoughts, that's a really scary situation to be in (insofar as we want society's decisionmakers to be able to notice things so that they can make decisions)",
+
+In October 2016,
+
+
+if [...] wrote her own 10,600 draft Document explaining why she thought [...] is actually a girl, that would be really interesting!—but rather that no one else seemed _interested in having a theory_, as opposed to leaping to institute a social convention that, when challenged, is claimed to have no particular consequences and no particular objective truth conditions, even though it's not clear why there would be moral urgency to implement this convention if it weren't for its consequences.
+
+https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1634338145016909824 re "malinformation"
+> If we don't have the concept of an attack performed by selectively reporting true information - or, less pleasantly, an attack on the predictable misinferences of people we think less rational than ourselves - the only socially acceptable counter is to say the info is false.
+
+Blanchard Tweets my blog in Feb and March 2017
+https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/830580552562524160
+https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/837846616937750528
+
+
+I said that I couldn't help but be reminded of a really great short story that I remembered reading back in—it must have been 'aught-nine. I thought it was called "Darkness and Light", or something like that. It was about a guy who gets transported to a fantasy world where he has a magic axe that yells at him sometimes, and he's prophecied to defeat the bad guy, and he and his allies have to defeat these ogres to reach the bad guy's lair. And when they get there, the bad guy _accuses them of murder_ for killing the ogres on the way there.
+
+(The story was actually Yudkowsky's ["The Sword of Good"](https://www.yudkowsky.net/other/fiction/the-sword-of-good), but I was still enjoying the "Robin Hanson's blog" æsthetic.)
+
+And the moral was—or at least, the moral _I_ got out of it was—there's something messed-up about the way fiction readers just naïvely accept the author's frame, instead of looking at the portrayed world with fresh eyes and applying their _own_ reason and their _own_ morality to it.
+
+need to fit this in somewhere—
+"Gee, I wonder why women-who-happen-to-be-trans are so much more likely to read Slate Star Codex, and be attracted to women, and, um, have penises, than women-who-happen-to-be-cis?"
+
+Everyone believed this in 2005! Everyone _still_ believes this!
+
+https://www.facebook.com/zmdavis/posts/10154424272680199
+> Happy Coming Out Day! I'm a male with mild gender dysphoria which is almost certainly causally related to my autogynephilic sexual/romantic orientation, which I am genuinely proud of! This has no particular implications for how other people should interact with me!
+> I believe that late-onset gender dysphoria in males is almost certainly not an intersex condition. (Here "late-onset" is a term of art meant to distinguish people like me from those with early-onset gender dysphoria, which is characterized by lifelong feminine behavior and a predominantly androphilic sexual orientation. Anne Vitale writes about these as "Group Three" and "Group One" in "The Gender Variant Phenomenon": http://www.avitale.com/developmentalreview.htm ) I think it's important to not let the political struggle to secure people's rights to self-modification interfere with the pursuit of scientific knowledge, because having a realistic understanding of the psychological mechanisms underlying one's feelings is often useful in helping individuals make better decisions about their own lives in accordance with the actual costs and benefits of available interventions (rather than on the basis of some hypothesized innate identity). Even if the mechanisms turn out to not be what one thought they were—ultimately, people can stand what is true.
+> Because we are already enduring it.
+Too subtle? (40 Likes, one comment from my half-brother)
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / blobdiff