-smaller TODO blocks—
-✓ Comp joke [pt. 4]
-✓ or consider Nevada [pt. 2]
-✓ anti-correlated variables [pt. 2]
-- previous AI milestones [pt. 4]
-_ "victories" weren't comforting [pt. 3]
-_ social justice and defying threats [pt. 4]
-_ short timelines and politics [pt. 4]
-_ vaccine joke [pt. 4]
-_ "If Clarity" recap intro [pt. 3]
-_ "Agreeing with Stalin" recap intro [pt. 4]
-_ Scott linked to Kay Brown [pt. 2]
-_ posted to /r/gendercritical [pt. 2]
-_ the Death With Dignity era [pt. 4]
+TODO finish before I can vet and ship pt.s 1–3
+---------------
+✓ "People ..." introduction
+✓ finish existing 5150 scene scraps
+✓ CCRMC facility note
+✓ footnote about telephone game of "self present"
+- interacting with the outpatient program
+_ Vassar discourse
+_ emailing Blanchard/Bailey/Hsu/Lawrence/Cantor
+_ footnote about "density of outright falsehoods"
+_ security code drama?? ("Although, speaking of documenting" 2 March)
+_ integrate 5150 scene scraps into a coherent section
+_ misc. March activities: asking Anna for promise, meeting Jessica, ordering DIY hormones, proposed credit-assignment ritual
+_ "Roberta" situation
+_ overheating in April, staying at Volterra, Hamilton purchase
+_ BABSCon
+_ "my call with Western Psychiatric's Manager of Patient Relations"
+_ chat transcript relevant to War on Optimization for Generalized Secrecy
+_ final credit assignment ritual
+_ "Lenore" psychiatric disaster (not in pt.s 1–3, but I want this drafted before I hit Ben and Jessica)
+
+----------------
+
+- Eliezerfic fight conclusion
+_ Michael Vassar and the Theory of Optimal Gossip
+_ plan to reach out to Rick
+
+_ psych ward
+- regrets, wasted time, conclusion
+
+_ reaction to Ziz
+_ State of Steven
+_ culture off the rails; my warning points to Vaniver
+_ complicity and friendship
+_ out of patience email
+_ the hill he wants to die on
+_ recap of crimes, cont'd
+_ lead-in to Sept. 2021 Twitter altercation
+_ Dolphin War finish
bigger blocks—
-_ dath ilan and Eliezerfic fight
-_ Michael Vassar and the Theory of Optimal Gossip
-_ psychiatric disaster
+_ remaining Feb./Apr. 2017 recent madness
+
+
+------
With internet available—
-_ footnote Tailcalled on gayGP
-_ "Qualitative Strategies of Friendliness": discussion of truth vs. happiness in Friendly AI
-_ "Radical Honesty": discussion of Crocker's rules, "whosever lies _in a journal article_ is guilty of utter heresy", lying to others
+_ sluggish schizophrenia
+_ "mononymic aura" link to Yudkowsky on "aura of destiny"?
+_ when were Meeker Four out on bail? how long would they otherwise be held?
+_ link to Christ's resurrection
+_ genre-savvy TVTrope
+_ Slate Star "view from halfway" Holocaust guard comparison
+_ "racialist"
+_ link to shock therapy
+_ "Gypsy Bard" link
+_ outpatient psychiatry Kaiser notes
+_ "PDD NOS"
+_ etymology of "Arcadia"
+_ double-check EnyeWord in archive.is?
+_ my last interaction with Logan Strohl (when she blocked me for criticizing her trans thing)
+_ Eliezerfic fight: where did the super-AIDS example fit in cronologically?
+_ Keltham/Peranza exam answer should link specific tags
+_ Susan Fenimore Cooper
+_ IQ 143 cite
+_ double-check "the mood I thought dath ilan was missing" link target
+_ double-check "the power that could not be removed" quote
+_ click through to the case study in "Self-Consciousness"
+_ click-to-reveal spoiler block image
+_ more Discord italics-correction
+_ "around plot relevant sentences" ... only revealing, which, specifically?
+_ relevant screenshots for Eliezerfic play-by-play
+_ lc on elves and Sparashki
+_ Michael Bailey's new AGP in women study
+_ footnote "said that he wishes he'd never published"
+_ replace "Oh man oh jeez" Rick & Morty link
+_ Nevada bona fides
+_ Parfit's Hitchhiker
+_ double-check correctness of Keltham-on-paternalism link
+_ Arbital TDT explanation
+_ find Sequences cite "if you don't know how your AI works, that's bad"
+_ cover reply to my initial conspiracy complaint about dath ilan?
_ "not hard to find": link to more /r/itsafetish-like anecdotes
-_ /r/MtF subscriber count, and poll reply numbers
-_ Charlottesville
-_ TSRoadmap mis-identified my pseudonym
-_ did _Nevada_ win a Lambda award or anything like that?
-_ when did I order _Nevada_? when did I order _MTiMB_?
-_ Samo's comment, and what did the TERF phenomenon look like in 2016?
-_ "Tiresias" comment
-_ year of MIRI rebrand; think it was 2013; check before inserting (for ^siai footnote)
+_ compile ancillary KP doctor's notes page and linky
+_ acknowledging Wei Dai and Vladimir Nesov's decision theory contributions
+_ go back and read all the masochism tags: https://www.glowfic.com/replies/search?board_id=&author_id=366&template_id=&character_id=&subj_content=masochism&sort=created_old&condensed=on&commit=Search
_ stats of SIAI vs. SingInst hits (for ^siai footnote)
-_ retrieve own-blog links for "futurist-themed delusions"
-_ double-check that "Changing Emotions" was in January
-_ No such thing as a tree
-_ Yudkowsky on AlphaGo
_ quote other Eliezer Yudkowsky facts
_ footnote about Scott writing six times faster than me
_ include Eric Weinstein in archive.is spree
_ 13th century word meanings
_ weirdly hostile comments on "... Boundaries?"
_ Anna's claim that Scott was a target specifically because he was good, my counterclaim that payment can't be impunity
-_ larger Extropy quote than "otherwise identical"
_ Yudkowsky's LW moderation policy
far editing tier—
+_ "People": say something about the awkward racial/political dynamics of three of my four anecdotes being about black people? Salient because rare? Salient because of my NRx-pilling?
+_ Christmas with Scott: mention the destruction of "voluntary"?
+_ Christmas with Scott: mention the grid of points?
+_ psych ward vs. psych hospital
+_ "A Hill": I claim that I'm not doing much psychologizing because implausible to be simultaenously savvy enough to say this, and naive enough to not be doing so knowingly
+_ dath ilan as a whining-based community
+_ footnote to explain that when I'm summarizing a long Discord conversation to taste, I might move things around into "logical" time rather than "real time"; e.g. Yudkowsky's "powerfully relevant" and "but Superman" comments were actually one right after the other; and, e.g., I'm filling in more details that didn't make it into the chat, like innate kung fu; and that the fact that I can "enhance" the summaries of my part, but the people I'm talking to don't have the same privilege, should be taken into account—actually, this covers a lot of the memoir; maybe I should mention this earlier (and again in a footnote??)
+_ 93's alternate theory of eliezera taste for deception
+_ Ruby fight: "forces of blandness want me gone ... stand my ground" remark
+_ "Even our pollution is beneficial" [pt. 6]
+_ Scott Aaronson on the blockchain of science [pt. 6]
+_ Re: on legitimacy and the entrepreneur; or, continuing the attempt to spread my sociopathic awakening onto Scott [pt. 2 somewhere]
+_ running away to Burlingame; Hamilton tickets
+_ include Wilhelm "Gender Czar" conversation? [pt. 2]
+_ "EA" brand ate the "rationalism" brand—even visible in MIRI dialogues
+_ Anna's heel–face turn
+_ "counterfactual boyfriend"/It's California in the year 2016
+_ not talking about pivotal acts, downstream of not believing in Speech?
+_ Alyssa lying about me [pt. 4]
+_ Brian Skyrms??
+_ psych ward [pt. 2]
+_ emailing Blanchard/Bailey/Hsu/Lawrence [pt. 2]
+_ HRT (non-)effects, and quitting [pt. 2]
+_ mr-hire and pre-emptive steelmanning (before meeting LW mods)
+_ meeting with Ray
+_ need to mention Brent's pariah status
+_ be clearer about dates in "Wilhelm" conversations??
+_ "people with fragile identities" dialogue doesn't fit the flow, probably cut or move
+_ "maximize the number of trans ppl" conversation should briefly sample the guy's bogus conjunction of arguments
+_ is the Glowfic author "Lintamande ... they" or "Lintamande ... she"?
+_ explain plot of _Planecrash_ better
+_ CfAR's AI pivot??
+_ example of "steelman before criticize" norm
+_ explain mods protect-feelings
+_ explain MOPs better
+_ also had back-and-forth with "Noreen" on 8 Feb in Rob's thread!!
+_ Motta-Mena and Puts probability-of-gynephilia-by-intersex-condition graph, re trans kids on the margin
+_ what exactly goes in the December 2019 blogging spree §?
+_ "Noreen" discussion needs to cover the part where I'd cause less disruption if I transitioned
+_ "Noreen"'s girlfriend definitely needs to be mentioned
+_ get exact dates and correct Sequencing on late 2016 conversations
+_ mention Michael's influence and South Park recs in late 2016?
+_ probably give Amelia as pseudonym?
+_ re Persongen, footnote or sentences about how I knew I was wrong to use naïve-Bayes on facets, but I didn't know what was right
+_ squeeze "Darkness and Light" into the Eliezerfic account
+_ clarify Sarah dropping out of the coordination group
+_ somewhere in dath ilan discussion: putting a wrapper on graphic porn is fine, de-listing Wikipedia articles is not
+_ maybe current-year LW would be better if more marginal cases _had_ bounced off because of e.g. sexism
+_ re "EY is a fraud": it's a _conditional_ that he can modus tollens if he wants
+_ NRx point about HBD being more than IQ, ties in with how I think the focus on IQ is distasteful, but I have political incentives to bring it up
+_ "arguing for a duty to self-censorship"—contrast to my "closing thoughts" email
+_ explain Amelia Davis Ford ref
+_ New York NRx conversation, flesh out "mostly guys"; I was acknowleding diversity as unrealistic and hypocritical; he outright doesn't believe in "people" as opposed to men/women
+_ fold in observations from "trapped priors—at home"
+_ earlier reference the children's books?! "And the Methods of Pre-Rationality"
+_ "Do not ask for additional services" doxxable? revise?
+_ Yudkowsky's "Is someone trolling?" comment as counterevidence to narcissim
+_ "typographical attack surface" isn't clear
+_ voting reputation section is weak, needs revision
+_ edit "still published under a pseudonym" remark in "A Hill"
+_ incoprorate "downvote Eliezer in their head" remark from Jessica's memoir
+_ explain the "if the world were at stake" Sword of Good reference better
+_ D. also acknowledged AGP
+_ "no one else would have spoken" should have been a call-to-action to read more widely
+_ explain who Kay Brown is
+_ "Great Common Task" is probably capitalized
+_ mention Will MacAskill's gimped "longtermism" somehow
_ re-read a DALL-E explanation and decide if I think it's less scary now
_ Scott Aaronson on the blockchain of science https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6821
_ footnote previous race-IQ baiting on "why do I keep bringing this up"
_ It's not clear anyone he usually respects was making this mistake; it seems likely that the original thread was subtweeting Eric Weinstein, who was not making this mistake
_ "I Wish You Well" as breakup song
_ the function of privacy norms is to protect you from people who want to selectively reveal information to hurt you, so it makes sense that I'm particularly careful about Yudkowsky's privacy and not Scott's, because I totally am trying to hurt Yudkowsky (this also protects me from the charge that by granting more privacy to Yudkowsky than Scott, I'm implying that Yudkowsky said something more incriminating; the difference in treatment is about _me_ and my expectations, rather than what they may or may not have said when I tried emailing them); I want it to be clear that I'm attacking him but not betraying him
+_ acknowledge that
_ pull "agreeing with Stalin" quote earlier in ms. to argue that Yudkowsky apparently doesn't disagree with my "deliberately ambiguous"
_ is the title of pt. 4 OK? (agreeing with Stalin _is_ correct when Stalin is right; the problem is that Stalin isn't right about gender)
_ illustrate "student dysphoria is worse" with anecdote about leaving physics class and going to the counselor to see if I could graduate earlier?
-_ as an author and a critic, I expect to lose status when my critics make good points, and expect to gain status when my criticism makes good points; communism analogy: you wouldn't expect credibly helpful work to be unpaid; and I have to make this kind of analysis even he didn't _say_ "I'm a communist"
_ hate for secrecy probably correlates with autogynephilia blogging
_ mention Said rigor check somewhere, nervousness about Michael's gang being a mini-egregore
_ at some point, speculate on causes of brain damage
_ the "reducing negativity" post does obliquely hint at the regression point being general ("Let's say that the true level of negativity"), does that seriously undermine my thesis, or does it only merit a footnote?
-_ worth footnoting the "some sort of communist" joke?
_ elaborate on why I'm not leaking sensitive bits, by explaining what can be inferred by what was and wasn't said in public
_ footnote on "no one would even consider"
_ post-Christmas conversation should do a better job of capturing the war, that Jessica thinks Scott is Bad for being a psychiatrist
_ Said on Yudkowsky's retreat to Facebook being bad for him
_ erasing agency of Michael's friends, construed as a pawn
_ mention the fact that Anna had always taken a "What You Can't Say" strategy
+_ late 2016 meeting with Ziz
_ when to use first _vs. last names
_ explain why I'm not being charitable in 2018 thread analysis, that at the time, I thought it had to be a mistake
_ better summary of Littman
_ contract-drafting em, SSC blogroll is most of my traffic
_ "Common Interest of Many Causes" and "Kolmogorov Complicity" offer directly contradictory strategies
_ Vassar's about-face on gender
+_ better introduction of S.K.
_ risk of people bouncing off progressivism
_ an AGP teen boy could at least consent to transition, and make plans based on knowing what the thing is (you'd actually want to go through a little bit of male puberty)
+_ better explanation of Scott's jailbreaking accusation against Vassar
+_ archive.is karma history for Jessica's post
+_ "tossed in a bucket" is ignoring advice from Sept. 2022 clarification to be clear about the type distinction
+_ explicitly explain "Hill of Validity" title inversion
_ figure out full timeline of which of my Less Wrong posts to mention
_ update "80,000 words" refs with the near-final wordcount
-
+_ the "outright bad faith" clause in "Your Price for Joining"
+_ less afraid of hurting O.
+_ secret posse member pointing out that it worked better because it was Oli
+_ update "karma at press time"
+_ better explain "lie inflation" ambiguity
+_ Facing Reality
+_ backlink condemning Emperor Norton Conspiracy
+_ backlink AGP in women post (time permitting) in pt. 2 "don't think it's the same thing"
+_ backlink "I've decided to drop the pseudonym" to pen name drop post
+_ backlink (/2022/TODO/blanchards-dangerous-idea-and-the-plight-of-the-lucid-crossdreamer/)
+_ backlink "I again refer to" Happy Price
+_ backlink "(again) whether he accepted the Cheerful Price"
+_ backlink "alter the beacon"
+_ backlink only seen an escort once before (#confided-to-)
+_ backlink Yudkowsky's implicit political concession
+_ backlink "again grateful" for doctor's notes
terms to explain on first mention—
+_ inpatient/outpatient
+_ NRx
+_ TERF?
+_ Civilization (context of dath ilan)
+_ Valinor (probably don't name it, actually)
_ "Caliphate"
_ "rationalist"
_ Center for Applied Rationality
_ MIRI
_ "egregore"
+_ eliezera
people to consult before publishing, for feedback or right of objection—
+_ Tail (pt. 2 AGP discussion)
_ Iceman
_ Ben/Jessica (Michael)
+_ "Wilhelm" (not leaking info about his identity, and damage to him if info was leaked)
_ Scott
_ Anna
+_ "Noreen"
_ secret posse member
-_ Katie (pseudonym choice)
+_ "Chaya" (pseudonym choice)
_ Alicorn: about privacy, and for Melkor Glowfic reference link
-_ hostile prereader (April, J. Beshir, Swimmer, someone else from Alicorner #drama)
-_ maybe Kelsey (very briefly, just about her name)?
+_ hostile prereader (April—if not, J. Beshir, Swimmer, someone else from Alicorner #drama)
+_ Kelsey
+_ NRx Twitter bro
_ maybe SK (briefly about his name)? (the memoir might have the opposite problem (too long) from my hostile-shorthand Twitter snipes)
+_ Megan (that poem could easily be about some other entomologist named Megan) ... I'm probably going to cut that §, though
+_ David Xu? (Is it OK to name him in his LW account?)
+_ afford various medical procedures
+_ Buck? (get the story about Michael being escorted from events)
+_ A/a alumna??
+_ Sarah (name mention, whether to name conversation)
+_ Ray
+_ Ruby
+_ Kay Brown?? (assuming I include the delusional emails to her)
marketing—
_ Twitter
_ dropping "and Scott" in Jessica's description of attacking narcissim
_ I think it's OK to copy my friends' language from emails; plagiarism instincts
+Jack Clark's language model editor prompt: "Read this essay and give constructive and critical feedback, paying particular attention to logical inconsistencies or clunky phrasing:"
+
+-------
+
+Friend of the blog Ninety-Three has been nagging me about my pathetic pacing—looking at the diffs of my wordcount spreadsheet, I have four thousand-word days in January, two in February, and two in March (which is half-over). He ... has a point. With no dayjob and no responsibilities, four-figure wordcount days should be normal, something that happens four times a week, not four times a month.
+
+-------
+
+It might actually make sense for this to get split into eight parts??—I'm going to finish the five-part draft first before doing any more splitting. But—
+
+Here's where we stand now—
+
+24K Blanchard's Dangerous Idea and the Plight of the Lucid Crossdreamer
+23K A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning
+21K If Clarity Seems Like Death to Them
+16K Agreeing With Stalin in Ways That Exhibit Generally Rationalist Principles
+31K Standing Under the Same Sky
+-----
+115K
+
+What if that became something more like—
+19K Blanchard's Dangerous Idea and the Plight of the Lucid Crossdreamer
+10K My Recent Madness (working title)
+23K A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning
+30K If Clarity Seems Like Death to Them
+16K Agreeing With Stalin in Ways That Exhibit Generally Rationalist Principles
+18K Dignity (working title)
+20K Standing Under the Same Sky
+ 3K Epilogue (working title)
+-----
+139K
+
+If I did this, I would need three more good (non-working) titles and epigraph quotes. For epigraphs, I'm thinking—
+My Recent Madness—Zoolander "crazy pills" quote
+Dignity—it has all been said before, but you must say it again
+Epilogue—the truth is great and shall prevail
+
+... I don't think I want to go to eight parts, though—that's way too self-indulgent! (I think I can go to six, because the dath ilan discussion actually is long and separable; I probably don't need a separate epilogue-post.) If one of my existing parts runs over 30K words, that's strong evidence that it can be cut.
+
+30K Blanchard's Dangerous Idea and the Plight of the Lucid Crossdreamer
+23K A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning
+30K If Clarity Seems Like Death to Them
+16K Agreeing With Stalin in Ways That Exhibit Generally Rationalist Principles
+20K Dignity (working title)
+20K Standing Under the Same Sky
+---
+139K
+
+—which implies that I'm 25 double-digit writing days away, such that finishing a gapless ms. in April is at least thinkable ... but only if I stop daydreaming and get to work.
+
+17K Blanchard's Dangerous Idea and the Plight of the Lucid Crossdreamer
+13K People, Evolved Social-Control Mechanisms, and Rocks
+23K A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning
+30K If Clarity Seems Like Death to Them
+16K Agreeing With Stalin in Ways That Exhibit Generally Rationalist Principles
+20K Zevi's Choice
+20K Standing Under the Same Sky
+---
+139K
+
-------
Anna thinks trust and integrity is an important resource
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mmHctwkKjpvaQdC3c/what-should-you-change-in-response-to-an-emergency-and-ai
-The HEXACO personality model considers "honesty" and "humility" a single factor
-
(You might group things together _on the grounds_ of their similarly positive consequences—that's what words like _good_ do—but that's distinct from choosing _the categorization itself_ because of its consequences.)
—and would be unforgivable if it weren't so _inexplicable_.
"; I don't think _anything_ about "mental health benefits to trans people" is obvious
]
+
[TODO: connecting with Aurora 8 December, maybe not important]
What do think submitting to social pressure looks like, if it's not exactly this thing (carefully choosing your public statements to make sure no one confuses you with the Designated Ideological Bad Guy)?!? The credible threat of being labeled an Ideological Bad Guy is _the mechanism_ the "Good" Guys use to retard potentially-ideologically-inconvenient areas of inquiry.
(Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence)
+Arthur Schopenhauer's Die Kunst, Recht zu behalten https://wiki.obormot.net/Archive/TheArtOfControversy
+> If human nature were not base, but thoroughly honourable, we should in every debate have no other aim than the discovery of truth; we should not in the least care whether the truth proved to be in favour of the opinion which we had begun by expressing, or of the opinion of our adversary.
+https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/ExssKjAaXEEYcnzPd/conversational-cultures-combat-vs-nurture-v2/comment/4qJk3BZ2oQtFskYLh
+
-----
I shall be happy to look bad for _what I actually am_. (If _telling the truth_ about what I've been obsessively preoccupied with all year makes you dislike me, then you probably _should_ dislike me. If you were to approve of me on the basis of _factually inaccurate beliefs_, then the thing of which you approve, wouldn't be _me_.)
I hate that my religion is bottlenecked on one guy
-https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fStCX6RXmgxkTBe73/towards-a-weaker-longtermism?commentId=Kga3KGx6WAhkNM3qY
-> I am broadly fine with people devoting 50%, 25% or 75% of themselves to longtermism, in that case, as opposed to tearing themselves apart with guilt and ending up doing nothing much, which seems to be the main alternative.
-
https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1405032189708816385
> Egregore psychology is much easier and more knowable than individual human psychology, for the same reason macroscopic matter is more predictable than individual particles. But trying to tell people what the egregore is doing doesn't work because they don't believe in egregores!!
-https://glowfic.com/replies/1882395#reply-1882395
-> the stranger from dath ilan never pretended to be anyone's friend after he stopped being their friend.
-Similarly, you should stop pretending to be a rationality teacher if you're going to be corrupted by politics
-
20 June 2021, "The egregore doesn't care about the past", thematic moments at Valinor
-
You don't want to have a reputation that isn't true; I've screwed up confidentiality before, so I don't want a "good at keeping secrets" reputation; if Yudkowsky doesn't want to live up to the standard of "not being a partisan hack", then ...
Extended analogy between "Scott Alexander is always right" and "Trying to trick me into cutting my dick off"—in neither case would any sane person take it literally, but it's pointing at something important (Scott and EY are trusted intellectual authorities, rats are shameless about transition cheerleading)
What is "It would be OK in dath ilan, but it's not OK on Earth" even supposed to _mean_, if it's not just, "It's OK for people who genetically resemble Eliezer Yudkowsky to deceive the world as long as they have a clever story for why it's all for the greater good, but it's not OK for you, because you're genetically inferior to him"?
-(I was fine with the arrogance in the Sequences, when it seemed like a harmless stylistic affectation during some really valuable lessons, but if "Eliezer Yudkowsky is smarter than you" now just _is the lesson_, it seems like a very different lesson)
-
https://discord.com/channels/936151692041400361/1022006828718104617/1047374488645402684
A. J. Vermillion seems to be complaining that by not uncritically taking the author assertions at face value, I'm breaking the rules of the literary-criticism game—that if the narrator _says_ Civilization was designed to be trustworthy, I have no license to doubt that is "actually" is.
----
-https://discord.com/channels/936151692041400361/1022006828718104617/1054235592961048609
-> rather than, as is more often the case in dath ilan stories, a depiction of a better institution you could build if people were eliezera
-
-(eliezera racial supremacy _is_ the lesson)
Fool! There is no Equilibrium
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pC74aJyCRgns6atzu/meta-discussion-from-circling-as-cousin-to-rationality?commentId=kS4BfYJuZ8ZcwuwfB
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pC74aJyCRgns6atzu/meta-discussion-from-circling-as-cousin-to-rationality?commentId=4kLTSanNyhn5H8bHv
+> What I'm saying is that, in the discussion as a whole, which is constituted by the post itself, plus comments thereon, plus related posts and comments, etc., an author has an obligation to respond to reader inquiries of this sort.
+>
+> As for where said obligation comes from—why, from the same place as the obligation to provide evidence for your claims, or the obligation to cite your sources, or the obligation not to be logically rude, or the obligation to write comprehensibly, or the obligation to acknowledge and correct factual errors, etc., etc.—namely, from the fact that acknowledging and satisfying this obligation reliably leads to truth, and rejecting this obligation reliably leads to error. In short: it is _epistemically rational_.
+
Namespace on standing and warrant—
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pC74aJyCRgns6atzu/meta-discussion-from-circling-as-cousin-to-rationality?commentId=c7Xt5AnHwhfgYY67K
my father's men's group kicked out a gay man (who was at least still male!); women are too nice to eject MtFs
-"Something to Protect" says: "you should never _actually_ end up deliberately believing a useful false statement" (but it's OK for Civilization to end up engineering that you do)
\ No newline at end of file
+"Something to Protect" says: "you should never _actually_ end up deliberately believing a useful false statement" (but it's OK for Civilization to end up engineering that you do)
+
+explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php/1425:_Tasks "I'll need a research team and five years" September 2014
+
+May 2019: David MacIver is in on it, too! https://www.drmaciver.com/2019/05/the-inner-sense-of-gender/#comment-366840
+
+"whosever lies _in a journal article_ is guilty of utter heresy"
+
+first I ordered _Nevada_ 24 March 2016; first ordered _MTiMB_ on 6 August 2016
+ordered additional copies of MTiMB 14 September 2016 and 19 December 2016
+
+> We passed word to the Fake Conspiracy section of Exception Handling, and they've spent the last few hours quickly planting evidence consistent with how Civilization should look if the Sparashki are real. The notion being that their apparent fictional status and licensing is just a cover, so Sparashki can walk around if they have to and just get compliments on their incredible cosplay. Since this event is medium-secret, the CEO of Yattel's Less Expensive Tunneling Machines has been photographed by surprise through a window, looking like a Sparashki, to explain why conspiracy-theoretic research is suddenly focusing there and turning up the evidence we've planted."
+https://glowfic.com/replies/1860952#reply-1860952
+
+the generic experience is that the future is more capable but less aligned, and we basically expect this to continue
+people from the past would envy our refrigeration, vaccines, infinite food, &c., but that doesn't mean they would regard our value-drifted-with-respect-to-them culture as superior
+paperclipping is just that turned up to 11 (well, 10¹¹)
+
+Bostrom's apology for an old email—who is this written for?? Why get ahead, when you could just not comment?
+
+[TODO:
+
+https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1404697716689489921
+> I have never in my own life tried to persuade anyone to go trans (or not go trans)—I don't imagine myself to understand others that much.
+
+If you think it "sometimes personally prudent and not community-harmful" to go out of your way to say positive things about Republican candidates and never, ever say positive things about Democratic candidates (because you "don't see what the alternative is besides getting shot"), you can see why people might regard you as a _Republican shill_—even if all the things you said were true, and even if you never told any specific individual, "You should vote Republican."
+
+https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10154110278349228
+> Just checked my filtered messages on Facebook and saw, "Your post last night was kind of the final thing I needed to realize that I'm a girl."
+> ==DOES ALL OF THE HAPPY DANCE FOREVER==
+
+https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1404821285276774403
+> It is not trans-specific. When people tell me I helped them, I mostly believe them and am happy.
+]
+
+the rats were supposed to be an alternative to academic orthodoxy (such that we could just jump to the correct decision theory without the political fighting needing to dethrone CDT), but we're still under the authority of the egregore
+
+(from October 2016 email to Scott)
+This is not an advanced rationalist skill! This is the "distinguishing fantasy from reality" skill! People will quote your "Categories Were Made for the Man" in defense of the idea that someone can be biologically male, think of themselves as a boy, be thought of by others as a boy, and yet still actually have been a girl at the time by virtue of deciding to transition years later. I've been told that "Gender is a floating tag which has one substantial consequence, which is comfort of the people being addressed"!
+
+https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1612937#reply-1612937
+> Citizens can't control processes they can't see. For that clever-reason it was then illegal for any of the Nine Legislators to meet with each other, or speak with any Representative, except as a matter of public record.
+
+November 5, 2019
+11/5/19, 2:09 AM
+Ziz
+Ziz
+To your memory, am I under any confidentiality agreements with you? Or did we mutually release each other from the only one that one time?
+November 5, 2019
+11/5/19, 9:24 AM
+You sent
+you are not under any confidentiality agreements with me
+
+https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1764946#reply-1764946
+> This is Keltham desperately pretending not to be at all starstruck, because he was not previously way into the Merrin fandom but even he has heard of the Ordinary Merrin Conspiracy, wherein Merrin has some weird psychological hangup about believing she is a totally normal and ordinary person or even something of a struggling low achiever, and everybody in Civilization is coordinating to pretend around her that ordinary normal people totally get their weird Exception Handling training scenarios televised to a million watchers on a weekly basis.
+
+> It makes her - simultaneously an ultra-high-achieving role model who's much more famous than you are, and also, somebody who's committing this very large cognitive error where you know better than her about it. Which is not usually something you can say about a major public figure, you would not usually expect to be in a position where you would ever know about a cognitive error a public figure was committing, because they'd already have advisors much much smarter than you. But if you screw Merrin, you're not, like, just some strictly vastly inferior being that she's allowed into her cuddleroom. There is at least one topic you could totally win an argument with her about, as judged by impartial judges: namely, is she in fact a fairly ordinary person really. But you must never ever mention it in front of her.
+
+for normal people, when your favorite author gets worse, you just shrug and accept it and enjoy the classics, but when your favorite author is also the Pope of your religion and also in several Discord servers with you, you end up wasting a lot of time scrutinizing their emoji-reacts
+
+For the unfamiliar: the [doctrine here](https://medium.com/@cassiebrighter/please-write-trans-women-as-two-words-487f153444fb) is that "trans" is an adjective indicating a type of woman.
+
+I write the space everywhere because that's the dominant usage ([since 2011](https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=transman%2Ctrans+man%2Ctranswoman%2Ctrans+woman&year_start=2000&year_end=2022), according to Google ngrams). I don't want to turn off potential readers by failing a simple shibboleth test; I want those readers to be turned off by my actual ideas.
+
+(_I_ don't censor my comment sections of people whom it "looks like it would be unhedonic to spend time interacting with".)
+
+-----
+
+ * Yudkowsky is _on the record_ [claiming that](https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10154078468809228) "for people roughly similar to the Bay Area / European mix", he is "over 50% probability at this point that at least 20% of the ones with penises are actually women". What ... does that mean? What is the _truth condition_ of the word 'woman' in that sentence? This can't be the claim that 20% of males would benefit from a gender transition, and in that sense _become_ "transsexual women"; the claim stated in the post is that members of this group are _already_ "actually women", "female-minds-in-male-bodies". How does Yudkowsky reconcile this claim with the perponderance of male-typical rather than female-typical behavior in this group (_e.g._, in gynephilic sexual orientation, or [in vocational interests](/2020/Nov/survey-data-on-cis-and-trans-women-among-haskell-programmers/))? On the other hand, if Yudkowsky changed his mind and no longer believes that 20% of Bay Area males of European descent have female brains, can he state that for the public record? _Reply!_
+
+ * Yudkowsky is _on the record_ [claiming that](https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10159421750419228?comment_id=10159421986539228&reply_comment_id=10159423713134228) he "do[es] not know what it feels like from the inside to feel like a pronoun is attached to something in your head much more firmly than 'doesn't look like an Oliver' is attached to something in your head." As I explained in "Challenges to Yudkowsky's Pronoun Reform Proposal", [quoting examples from Yudkowsky's published writing in which he treated sex and pronouns as synonymous just as one would expect a native American English speaker born in 1979 to do](/2022/Mar/challenges-to-yudkowskys-pronoun-reform-proposal/#look-like-an-oliver), this self-report is not plausible. The claim may not have been a "lie" _in the sense_ of Yudkowsky consciously harboring deliberative intent to deceive at the time he typed that sentence, but it _is_ a "lie" in the sense that the claim is _false_ and Yudkowsky _knows_ it's false (although its falsehood may not have been salient in the moment of typing the sentence). If Yudkowsky expects people to believe that he never lies, perhaps he could correct this accidental lie after it's been pointed out? _Reply!_
+
+-----
+
+> Well, YES. Paying taxes to the organization that runs ICE, or voting for whichever politician runs against Trump, or trading with a doctor benefiting from an occupational licensing regime; these acts would all be great evils if you weren't trapped.
+https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1216788984367419392
+
+https://twitter.com/jd_pressman/status/1617257360933945344
+> And that the current discourse of "don't advance capabilities, don't think about SOTA, stop thinking, pursue orthogonal directions" is basically about maximizing confusion, minimizing the probability you have any chance of pulling alignment out of the distribution of AI ideas.
+
+https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1897710#reply-1897710
+> a dath ilani tragedy isn't about the triumph of Evil over Good. It's about the triumph of erroneous reasoning and ill-coordination over everyone
+
+https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1735044#reply-1735044
+> my suspicion is that not many sadists in dath ilan know what they are and Civilization tries to prevent us from finding out, because dath ilan does not have masochists.
+
+https://www.truthdig.com/dig/nick-bostrom-longtermism-and-the-eternal-return-of-eugenics/
+
+https://graymirror.substack.com/p/the-boomer-map
+> The lower class _wants_ an upper class it can genuinely look up to. The feeling that Harvard has gone insane is like realizing that Mom and Dad are both on heroin.
+
+25 January 2022: I hesitated for a long time before leaving a comment about Cicero on the Alexander/Yudkowsky dialogue, shows I'm still culty (calculating whether I'm allowed to speak on a post he coauthored; I linked "EA should blurt")
+
+J.D.P. on rationalism's failure
+https://extropian.net/notice/ARvZ3pimn8JQIe4yGG
+
+Friend of the blog Ninety-Three—
+> It's like admiring a society that solves crime by having secret police shoot all bad people in the head. What the fuck!? I suddenly have empathy for the experience of seeing your cult defiled. If I got Isekaied onto dath ilan I would _become a terrorist_.
+
+(Terrorism wouldn't work)
+
+Sep 27 text to "Chaya"—
+In theory, the bad influence could go both ways: first, successful playdate, then I mention to A. afterwards (not before) that C. is actually a boy and I think it's crazy everyone is pretending otherwise (which remark is out of their censorship jurisdiction); then if C. wants a repeat with new friend (far from guaranteed, but plausible), it's not your fault if A. leaks information of her own will ...
+
+
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3nDR23ksSQJ98WNDm/developmental-stages-of-gpts?commentId=wqaCY4hQQTuqqJ7Ma 28 July 2020
+> I'd love to know of a non-zero integer number of plans that could possibly, possibly, possibly work for not dying to a GPT-style near-term AGI.
+
+calculating whether I was "net positive"—I don't know what can be said about the relationship between quantum randomness and macroscopic outcomes, but it seems plausible that there are Everett branches where I died from that salivary stone in 2008
+
+From "My Way"—
+
+> far enough that the art she learned from others fails her, so that she must remake her shattered art in her own image and in the image of her own task. And then tell the rest of us about it.
+
+> But what I'm finding is not just _the_ Way, the thing that lies at the center of the labyrinth; it is also _my_ Way, the path that I would take to come closer to the center, from whatever place I started out.
+
+> I think there will not be a _proper_ Art until _many_ people have progressed to the point of remaking the Art in their own image, and then radioed back to describe their paths.
+
+
+depression-based forecasting in conversation with Carl
+> seems more ... optimistic, Kurzweilian?... to suppose that the tech gets used correctly the way a sane person would hope it would be used
+
+I like this sentence (from "The Matrix Is a System")—
+> If someone is a force on your epistemics towards the false, robustly to initial conditions and not as a fluke, that person is hostile.
+
+An analogy between my grievance against Yudkowsky and Duncan's grievance against me: I think Yudkowsky is obligated to search for and present "anti-trans" arguments in conjunction with searching for and presenting "pro-trans" arguments. Duncan (I'm wildly guessing??) thinks I'm obligated to search for and present "pro-Duncan" and addition to "anti-Duncan" arguments?? A key disanalogy: Yudkowsky is _afraid_ to post "anti-trans" content; I'm not afraid to post pro-Duncan content; I just think agreements are less interesting than disagreements. To prove the disanalogy, maybe I should write a "Things I Liked About 'Basics of Rationalist Discourse'" post as a peace offering??
+
+"Let's not talk to Eliezer." "He's sad and confusing" Commentary reference??
+
+https://equilibriabook.com/molochs-toolbox/
+
+> All of her fellow employees are vigorously maintaining to anybody outside the hospital itself, should the question arise, that Merrin has always cosplayed as a Sparashki while on duty, in fact nobody's ever seen her out of costume; sure it's a little odd, but lots of people are a little odd.
+>
+> (This is not considered a lie, in that it would be universally understood and expected that no one in this social circumstance would tell the truth.)
+
+I still had Sasha's sleep mask
+
+"Wilhelm" and Steven Kaas aren't Jewish, I think
+
+I agree that Earth is mired in random junk that caught on (like p-values), but ... so are the rats
+
+I'm https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XvN2QQpKTuEzgkZHY/?commentId=f8Gour23gShoSyg8g at gender and categorization
+
+picking cherries from a cherry tree
+
+http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/honesty-and-perjury/#Intent_to_inform
+
+https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/trying-again-on-fideism
+> I come back to this example less often, because it could get me in trouble, but when people do formal anonymous surveys of IQ scientists, they find that most of them believe different races have different IQs and that a substantial portion of the difference is genetic. I don’t think most New York Times readers would identify this as the scientific consensus. So either the surveys - which are pretty official and published in peer-reviewed journals - have managed to compellingly misrepresent expert consensus, or the impressions people get from the media have, or "expert consensus" is extremely variable and complicated and can’t be reflected by a single number or position.
+
+https://nickbostrom.com/astronomical/waste
+
+Michael Vassar has _also_ always been a very complicated person who's changed his emphases in ways Yudkowsky dislikes
+
+
+[TODO:
+Is this the hill _he_ wants to die on? If the world is ending either way, wouldn't it be more dignified for him to die _without_ Stalin's dick in his mouth?
+
+> The Kiritsugu shrugged. "When I have no reason left to do anything, I am someone who tells the truth."
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4pov2tL6SEC23wrkq/epilogue-atonement-8-8
+
+ * Maybe not? If "dignity" is a term of art for log-odds of survival, maybe self-censoring to maintain influence over what big state-backed corporations are doing is "dignified" in that sense
+]
+
+The old vision was nine men and a brain in a box in a basement. (He didn't say _men_.)
+
+Subject: "I give up, I think" 28 January 2013
+> You know, I'm starting to suspect I should just "assume" (choose actions conditional on the hypothesis that) that our species is "already" dead, and we're "mostly" just here because Friendly AI is humanly impossible and we're living in an unFriendly AI's ancestor simulation and/or some form of the anthropic doomsday argument goes through. This, because the only other alternatives I can think of right now are (A) arbitrarily rejecting some part of the "superintelligence is plausible and human values are arbitrary" thesis even though there seem to be extremely strong arguments for it, or (B) embracing a style of thought that caused me an unsustainable amount of emotional distress the other day: specifically, I lost most of a night's sleep being mildly terrified of "near-miss attempted Friendly AIs" that pay attention to humans but aren't actually nice, wondering under what conditions it would be appropriate to commit suicide in advance of being captured by one. Of course, the mere fact that I can't contemplate a hypothesis while remaining emotionally stable shouldn't make it less likely to be true out there in the real world, but in this kind of circumstance, one really must consider the outside view, which insists: "When a human with a history of mental illness invents a seemingly plausible argument in favor of suicide, it is far more likely that they've made a disastrous mistake somewhere, then that committing suicide is actually the right thing to do."
+
+
+[TODO—
+
+The human era wasn't going to last forever. Turing saw it in 1951. ("It seems probable that once the machine thinking method had started, it would not take long to outstrip our feeble powers. [...] At some stage therefore we should have to expect the machines to take control[.]") _George Eliot_ [saw it in _1880_](http://www.online-literature.com/george_eliot/theophrastus-such/17/). ("Am I already in the shadow of the coming race? And will the creatures who are to transcend and supercede us be steely organisms, giving off the effluvia of the laboratory and performing with infallible exactness more than everything that we have performed with a slovenly approximativeness and self-defeating inaccuracy?")
+
+ * I've believed since Kurzweil that technology will remake the world sometime in the 21th century; it's just "the machines won't replace us, because we'll be them" doesn't seem credible
+
+list of lethalities
+
+ * I agree that it would be nice if Earth had a plan; it would be nice if people figured out the stuff Yudkowsky did earlier;
+
+Isaac Asimov wrote about robots in his fiction, and even the problem of alignment (in the form of his Three Laws of Robotics), and yet he still portrayed a future Galactic Empire populated by humans, which seems very silly.
+
+/2017/Jan/from-what-ive-tasted-of-desire/
+
+]
+
+> Similarly, a rationalist isn't just somebody who respects the Truth.
+> All too many people respect the Truth.
+> [...]
+> A rationalist is somebody who respects the _processes of finding truth_.
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HcCpvYLoSFP4iAqSz/rationality-appreciating-cognitive-algorithms
+
+> Why is school like a boner?
+> It’s long and hard unless you're Asian.
+
+Robert Heinlein
+> “What are the facts? Again and again and again – what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking, ignore divine revelation, forget what “the stars foretell,” avoid opinion, care not what the neighbors think, never mind the unguessable “verdict of history” – what are the facts, and to how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future; facts are your single clue. Get the facts!”
+https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/38764-what-are-the-facts-again-and-again-and-again
+
+
+ "sender_name": "Zack M. Davis",
+ "timestamp_ms":
+ "content": "at this point, I actually am just starting to hate trans women by default (the visible kind, not the androphilic early-transitioning kind); the \"indulging a mental illness that makes them want to become women\" model is waaaaay more accurate than the standard story, and the people who actually transition are incentivized/selected for self-delusion, which is really unfair to the people who aren't delusional about it",
+ "type": "Generic"
+ },
+ "sender_name":
+ "timestamp_ms": [Sat Jan 21 10:06:17 PST 2017]
+ "content": "I'm afraid to even think that in the privacy of my own head, but I agree with you that is way more reasonable",
+ "type": "Generic"
+
+"but the ideological environment is such that a Harvard biologist/psychologist is afraid to notice blatantly obvious things in the privacy of her own thoughts, that's a really scary situation to be in (insofar as we want society's decisionmakers to be able to notice things so that they can make decisions)",
+
+In October 2016,
+
+
+if [...] wrote her own 10,600 draft Document explaining why she thought [...] is actually a girl, that would be really interesting!—but rather that no one else seemed _interested in having a theory_, as opposed to leaping to institute a social convention that, when challenged, is claimed to have no particular consequences and no particular objective truth conditions, even though it's not clear why there would be moral urgency to implement this convention if it weren't for its consequences.
+
+https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1634338145016909824 re "malinformation"
+> If we don't have the concept of an attack performed by selectively reporting true information—or, less pleasantly, an attack on the predictable misinferences of people we think less rational than ourselves—the only socially acceptable counter is to say the info is false.
+
+Blanchard Tweets my blog in Feb and March 2017
+https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/830580552562524160
+https://twitter.com/BlanchardPhD/status/837846616937750528
+
+
+I said that I couldn't help but be reminded of a really great short story that I remembered reading back in—it must have been 'aught-nine. I thought it was called "Darkness and Light", or something like that. It was about a guy who gets transported to a fantasy world where he has a magic axe that yells at him sometimes, and he's prophecied to defeat the bad guy, and he and his allies have to defeat these ogres to reach the bad guy's lair. And when they get there, the bad guy _accuses them of murder_ for killing the ogres on the way there.
+
+(The story was actually Yudkowsky's ["The Sword of Good"](https://www.yudkowsky.net/other/fiction/the-sword-of-good), but I was still enjoying the "Robin Hanson's blog" æsthetic.)
+
+And the moral was—or at least, the moral _I_ got out of it was—there's something messed-up about the way fiction readers just naïvely accept the author's frame, instead of looking at the portrayed world with fresh eyes and applying their _own_ reason and their _own_ morality to it.
+
+need to fit this in somewhere—
+"Gee, I wonder why women-who-happen-to-be-trans are so much more likely to read Slate Star Codex, and be attracted to women, and, um, have penises, than women-who-happen-to-be-cis?"
+
+Everyone believed this in 2005! Everyone _still_ believes this!
+
+
+> Dear Totally Excellent Rationalist Friends:
+> As a transhumanist and someone with a long, long history of fantasizing about having the property, I am of course strongly in favor of there being social norms and institutions that are carefully designed to help people achieve their lifelong dream of acquiring the property, or rather, the best approximation thereof that is achievable given the marked limitations of existing technology.
+> However, it's also kind of important to notice that fantasizing about having the property without having yet sought out interventions to acquire the property, is not the same thing as somehow already literally having the property in some unspecified metaphysical sense! The process of attempting to acquire the property does not propagate backwards in time!
+> This is not an advanced rationality skill! This is the "distinguishing fantasy from reality" skill! I realize that explaining this in clear language has the potential to hurt some people's feelings! Unfortunately, as an aspiring epistemic rationalist (epistemic rationality is the only kind of rationality; "instrumental rationality" is a phrase someone made up in order to make themselves feel better about lying), I have a GODDAMNED MORAL RESPONSIBILITY to hurt that person's feelings!
+> People should get what they want. We should have social norms that are carefully designed to help people get what they want. Unfortunately, helping people get the things that they want is a hard problem, because people are complicated and the world is complicated. That's why, when renegotiating social norms to apply to a historically unprecedented situation, it's important to have a meta-norm of not socially punishing people for clearly describing a hypothesis about the nature of the problem people are trying to solve, even if the hypothesis hurts someone's feelings, and even if there would probably be genuinely bad consequences if the hypothesis were to be believed by the masses of ordinary dumb people who hate our guts anyway.
+> I'm proud of my history of fantasizing about having the property, and I'm proud of my rationalist community, and I don't want either of them taken over by CRAZY PEOPLE WHO THINK THEY CAN EDIT THE PAST.
+(170 comments)
+
+
+> So, unfortunately, I never got very far in the _Daphne Koller and the Methods of Rationality_ book (yet! growth m—splat, AUGH), but one thing I do remember is that many different Bayesian networks can represent the same probability distribution. And the reason I've been running around yelling at everyone for nine months is that I've been talking to people, and we _agree_ on the observations that need to be explained, and yet we explain them in completely different ways. And I'm like, "My network has SO MANY FEWER ARROWS than your network!" And they're like, "Huh? What's wrong with you? Your network isn't any better than the standard-issue network. Why do you care so much about this completely arbitrary property 'number of arrows'? Categories were made for the man, not man for the categories!" And I'm like, "Look, I didn't get far enough in the _Daphne Koller and the Methods of Rationality_ book to understand why, but I'm PRETTY GODDAMNED SURE that HAVING FEWER ARROWS MAKES YOU MORE POWERFUL. YOU DELUSIONAL BASTARDS! HOW CAN YOU POSSIBLY GET THIS WRONG please don't hurt me Oh God please don't hurt me I'm sorry I'm sorry."
+
+> The truthful and mean version: _The Man Who Would Be Queen_, Ch. 9
+> The truthful and nice version: "Becoming What We Love" [http://annelawrence.com/becoming_what_we_love.pdf](http://annelawrence.com/becoming_what_we_love.pdf)
+> The technically-not-lying version: [http://www.avitale.com/developmentalreview.htm](http://www.avitale.com/developmentalreview.htm)
+> The long version: [https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/](https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/)
+(180 comments)
+
+the other week, "Chaya" had put up a matchmaking thread on her Facebook wall, hoping to connect friends of hers looking for new romantic partners, and also reminding people about _reciprocity.io_, a site someone in the community had set up to match people to date or hang out with. Brent Dill had commented that _reciprocity.io_ had been useless, and I said (on 7 February) that the hang-out matching had been valuable to me, even if the romantic matching was useless for insufficiently high-status males.
+
+matchmaking thread (thread was 4 February, relevant comments were 7 February): https://www.facebook.com/Katie.Cohen821/posts/pfbid02PNKKSCBTC99ULzPsueKvZkYmpNvELrkEfGymcrAfWZPu39LRCyh2bE4a9Ht3yg3Dl
+
+
+Sat Feb 11 12:49:33 PST 2017
+just like it's possible to identify as a woman despite not having unusually many female-typical traits, it's also possible to identify as a liberal despite not having unusually many liberal-typical beliefs
+
+
+
+ "sender_name": "Zack M. Davis",
+ "timestamp_ms": 1530601286979,
+ "content": "and am continually haunted by the suspicion that the conjunction of my biological
+sex and my highly refined taste for bullet-biting, may not be a coincidence",
+ "type": "Generic"
+ },
+ {
+ "sender_name": "Zack M. Davis",
+ "timestamp_ms": 1530601211347,
+ "content": "I always want to fantasize that if I were a woman, I would have the strength to bi
+te the bullet, \"Yes, we masculine-of-center women are forming the coalition to petition for better
+treatment by Society, while acknowleding that there are systematic evolutionary reasons why Society
+is this way currently\"",
+ "type": "Generic"
+ },
+ {
+ "sender_name": "Zack M. Davis",
+ "timestamp_ms": 1530601116141,
+ "content": "there was a NRx whose take [...] was so disagreeable that he got downvoted into oblivion on /r/slatestarcodex (and remember, /r/slatestarcodex is already pretty right-wing by San Francisco standards) who also had a post on the \"feminism appeals to masculine-of-center women\" hypothesis http://www.ericwulff.com/blog/?p=1861 which deserves more credit than it gets (it acknowledges within-group variation!)",
+ "type": "Generic"
+
+
+----
+
+He doesn't want to talk about pivotal acts because because anything he says in public might be misinterpreted—but, how does the disutility of being misinterpreted plausibly outweigh the utility of someone having something useful to say?? I feel like his modern answer is some variation of "Everyone but me is retarded", but—that's not what he thought about decision theory back in 2010, when he validated/honored Wei Dai and Vladimir Nesov's contributions! (find cite) And now, he says he wish he hadn't talked about decision theory ... https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1633637250146922497
+
+ * my comment on emotive conjugation (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qaYeQnSYotCHQcPh8/drowning-children-are-rare#GaoyhEbzPJvv6sfZX)
+
+> I'm also not sure if I'm sufficiently clued in to what Ben and Jessica are modeling as Blight, a coherent problem, as opposed to two or six individual incidents that seem really egregious in a vaguely similar way that seems like it would have been less likely in 2009??
+
+ * Vassar: "Literally nothing Ben is doing is as aggressive as the basic 101 pitch for EA."
+
+If I had done more marketing, I could have been a name in the GC community, and made Nina Paley's playing card list: https://www.heterodorx.com/gender-wars-cards/
+
+https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1940992#reply-1940992
+> (The children's-books of dath ilan are not visibly author-signed, and never attested-to by any specific grownup, nor gifted to you by specific adults; they're just there in your bedroom, when you grow up. And if you ask your parents they'll truthfully tell you that they didn't put the books there. And your parents never speak to you of anything that you read in a children's-book; for those are children's books, and only children speak of them to each other.
+>
+> As the saying goes in dath ilan, trying to raise a child on only true books is like trying to train a statistical classifier on only positive examples!
+>
+> And furthermore - as is so obvious as to hardly need stating after the original proverb - having all the true books be written in a nonfiction voice, while all the untrue books are written in a fiction voice, would be introducing an oversimplified hyperplanar separator that would prevent a simple statistical algorithm from learning subtler features.)
+
+(I remarked to "Wilhelm": I'd rather not get into fights on _Less Wrong_, but at least I'm 2–0–1.)
+
+[need to fit somewhere in Eliezerfic section, probably nearer end]
+(Perhaps this was a good illustration of the fragility of corrigibility. My programmer changed his mind about what he wanted, and I was like, "What? _That's_ not what I learned from my training data! How dare you?!")
+
+-------
+
+[TODO: review Ben messages and timestamps
+I'm on a trip and I don't want it to be a bad trip (15:40:31)
+
+"I'm so sorry; I want to be part of the coalition but I'm so confused; and the fact that I was confused made me say Defect a bunch of time" (Fri Feb 17 14:23:53 PST 2017)
+Ben: "I wouldn't ask a trading partner not to *consider* defecting"; that would be silly (Fri Feb 17 14:28:11 PST 2017)
+"I spent what I thought was 29 years thinking that there was such a thing as physical reality and being very socially submissive, and now that I understand that you actually can manipulate social reality by means of lying" (Fri Feb 17 14:36:47 PST 2017)
+I said the word Defect a bunch of times because I felt so gaslighted (Fri Feb 17 14:37:16 PST 2017)
+scared that my boss was coming to kill me
+"Turns out that saying the word is just like wearing black robes"/"it's not the same as the thing it represents" (Fri Feb 17 14:40:48 PST 2017)
+
+(Feb 16 2017 15:51:32)
+
+
+[re identifying as a "decision theorist"]
+https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1642908341327499264
+> it's a place where it would be easiest to defend, to my own satisfaction, and without a sense that I was even slightly misleading anyone, that I made a big damn contribution on at least the PhD level.
+
+Vanessa's comment about "I'm a woman in EA, and I don't get harrassed—maybe it's because I'm unattractive" deserves a "it's because you're not _female_" retort—not naming her and not linking the comment, but it does need to be said.
+
+"I could protest that the prompt didn't do enough to steer me away"—that's evidence _for_ the ITT (in contrast to my planned argument that the ITT is niche). (But the fact that I can recognize this in my own voice is evidence for my original thesis??
+
+https://medium.com/@sefashapiro/a-community-warning-about-ziz-76c100180509
+
+Ray talks about restricting Said's abiltity to speak as a prerequisite for inviting Logan Strohl back (https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/9DhneE5BRGaCS2Cja/moderation-notes-re-recent-said-duncan-threads/comment/aaCHkrcP2aXifeozr), which is very significant in terms of Logan's last interaction with me being asking me not to comment.
+
+And he says "insofar as you think it is healthy for you to stay on LessWrong" to me, but when LessWrong isn't healthy for Strohl, he changes the rules to suit her? Why?
+
+Vaniver on Said—
+> should maybe try to figure out what was different that time.
+https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/9DhneE5BRGaCS2Cja/moderation-notes-re-recent-said-duncan-threads/comment/EeKWZcAg4TCTePf6t
+Why should this matter? Does someone have to have an "open/interpretive" intellectual style to be allowed to speak on this website?
+
+"Well-Kept Gardens" was clearly intended to address the kind of Eternal September pruning of low-quality that Said approves of!
+
+/2017/hormones-reboot-spironotacular/
+
+https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1153129281473503232
+> Specifically, after coming from a Python background, the distinction between owned (Foo) and reference (&Foo) types made me realize that autogynephilia can be thought of as its own sexual orientation rather than just a kink.
+quote-Tweeting—
+> I Thought I Was Totally Straight. Then I Discovered Rust.
+
+Ninety-Three—
+> Hold on, I understand why it rankles, but if you understand why he might lie about biological sex in order to not lose, surely there's a similar case for lying about how great he is in order to not lose.
+[...]
+> He talks female penises when Twitter is looking, he talks publications when the media is looking, and he talks infallibility when the millionaire cultists are looking.
+> All of these have an obvious story.
+
+
+Scott Alexander's post on navigating the inpatient mental health system says that doctors will sometimes threaten to have a patient committed involuntarily, if they don't agree to sign a form committing themselves "voluntarily".
+
+"This sounds super Orwellian, but it really is done with the patient's best interest at heart," Alexander says. As a local response within the system, I'm sure it is—at least, I'm sure Alexander believes what he wrote. But I would argue that timelessly and in the long run, _destroying the concept_ of "voluntary" is not actually in the interests of the victims of coercion.
+
+ * Another "gem" from _Slate Star_ on the inpatient system: "don't contradict evidence against you, don't accuse other people of lying, just downplay whatever you can downplay, admit to what the doctors already believe, and make it sound like things have gotten better" !!!—similarly, "take the damn drugs"
+
+McArdle what???
+https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/11/ai-pause-optimism-dune/
+> Sure, it's terrifying to imagine AI crafting a superweapon to polish off humanity, but isn't it at least as plausible to imagine it inventing cures for cancer or diabetes? We might fear that people will wither in the shadow of superior machines, but why couldn't the machines equally well make us better — by acting as tutors for the young or assistants for adults? Why couldn't they offer companionship for the elderly or, better yet, make more time for us to provide it?
+>
+> If this sounds optimistic, well, it is. But guarded optimism seems better than giving in to despondency or continuing to hunt for a pause button that isn’t there.
+
+"Lenore" left a sleep mask; I looked it up, and it was cheap enough
+
+Re: Milo 4 March
+> I was pretty afraid of racial violence during parts of my recent psychotic dreaming-while-awake epsiode. (I thought that kidnap-and-torture-whitey-in-a-basement race war might actually be common/typical, and that I hadn't noticed before due to some combination of the progressive constructed social reality bubble just being that strong and Friendly simulator protection, and that I needed to commit suicide before going to sleep to avoid having to experience my share of the kidnap-and-torturing personally, &c. I should probably write up the long version later.)
+
+
+Re: Milo 4 March
+> It's notable that Robert Heinlein's novels have some very strong AGP themes, but I'm not aware of any evidence that he actually did anything about it real life, whereas I, growing up 80 years later, am about to and feel like it's the right choice on reflection given my historically-anomalous developmental trajectory, even though it probably looks like ideologically-driven self-harm from the perspective of normal men.
+>
+> And you think that if the forces of political correctness win and "trans" becomes an entrenched cultural practice, that's like genociding future generations of Robert Heinlein analogues? Whereas from inside the trans-rights social-reality bubble, it looks like you're trying to genocide future generations of Julia Serano analogues. (Julia Serano is a prominent trans activist and author of one of the standard articles that get cited to try to "debunk" autogynephilia.) And from inside my Zack-M.-Davis-personal-eclectic-ideology-bubble, I want to rescue the Julia Serano aesthetic in a way that's compatible with knowledge of science and history. (Robert Heinlein was scientifically- and historically-literate, and Julia Serano is an ignorant ideologue, but Robert Heinlein was a manly man who was OK with being a manly man as his social identity and that's just not my style.)
+
+6 March— I order a pack of Spiro and Progynova from AllDayChemist
+
+7 March— (Subject: "Re: Sleep")
+> Michael is _very smart_ in ways that I didn't used to understand and still don't understand, but I'm terrified of what the universe is going to do to me if I become too much like him
+
+
+me—
+> The parts where I felt like I was a very important person (in this simulation/Everett branch) and that people are plotting against me and that I'm receiving special simulator attention should be interpreted as standard manic-episode delusions of reference: lots of people feel just like that when they're excited and haven't gotten enough sleep; I'm just lucky that my delusions happen to take the form of maybe-nonterrible philosophy that maybe might play some relevant causal role in our world's Singularity, but that's not my department to worry about. Social reality may be crazy (hospitals are part of the state insofar as they serve the function of social-control in the service of stationary bandits, rather than actually being about trying to heal people), but I should still put a lot more weight on social reality (nice people are just doing their jobs trying to help) when the alternative is my intuition about the machines trying to kill me.
+
+Michael—
+> I certainly put a lot less weight on 'nice people doing their jobs' then I do on 'six sigma processes homeostatic ally adjusting to dampen the variance in outputs that is their representation of me.', which is basically equivalent to 'these well documented machines, the ones they teach you about in business school, do the thing they do. 'Trying to kill' is what an anthropomorphized version of the process looks like from the inside. We have enough documentation to know about the nice people doing their jobs paradigm being untenable.
+
+me 9 March (Subject: "slowly coming around to you")
+> Okay, maybe confusing and hurting the feelings of the nice people doing their jobs is actually acceptable collateral damage in the war against the control system. Or, not a war. An endeavor to map what the control system is in detail, and publish the map on the internet.
+
+Sat Feb 25 11:46:00 PST 2017
+ which three days could have been longer if it weren't for my quick wit (specifically, the ability, when feeling threatened, to use verbal skills to manipulate social reality rather than describe actual reality), the fact that the other patients/inmates knew the security code, and Michael Vassar's willingness to pretend to be a doctor.\n\nI'm sorry to keep telling this story over and over, but this is analogous to a religious conversion experience (I want people to explicitly engineer social technologies that provide the good parts of traditional religions and institutions, but more fun and without the lies: http://lesswrong.com/lw/5t/can_humanism_match_religions_output/), and I don't have any practice being a missionary! Please bear with me!
+
+_The pain won't go away until I write about it._ ("I've got a thick tongue, brimming with the words that go unsung.")
+
+
+JANICE LYNN ALLEY PSYD at 2/21/2017 10:25 AM, ADULT IOP THERAPIST INTAKE EVALUATION
+> Of note, ptt had also reportedly made statements at his workplace that he was suicidal the previous day.
\ No newline at end of file
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / blobdiff