-smaller TODO blocks—
-✓ previous AI milestones [pt. 4]
-✓ short timelines and politics [pt. 4]
-_ "victories" weren't comforting [pt. 3]
-_ vaccine joke [pt. 4]
-_ Scott linked to Kay Brown [pt. 2]
-_ posted to /r/gendercritical [pt. 2]
-_ the Death With Dignity era [pt. 4]
-_ social justice and defying threats [pt. 4]
-_ "If Clarity" recap intro [pt. 3]
-_ "Agreeing with Stalin" recap intro [pt. 4]
-
+marked TODO blocks—
+✓ AlphaGo seemed deeper [pt. 5]
+- "Agreeing with Stalin" recap intro [pt. 5]
+- social justice and defying threats [pt. 5]
+_ last email and not bothering him [pt. 5]
+_ scuffle on "Yes Requires the Possibility" [pt. 4]
+_ confronting Olivia [pt. 2]
+_ "Lesswrong.com is dead to me" [pt. 4]
+_ AI timelines scam [pt. 4]
+_ secret thread with Ruby [pt. 4]
+_ progress towards discussing the real thing [pt. 4]
+_ epistemic defense meeting [pt. 4]
+_ State of Steven [pt. 4]
+_ Somni [pt. 4]
+_ rude maps [pt. 4]
+_ culture off the rails; my warning points to Vaniver [pt. 4]
+_ December 2019 winter blogging vacation [pt. 4]
+_ plan to reach out to Rick [pt. 4]
+_ complicity and friendship [pt. 4]
+_ pandemic starts [pt. 4]
+_ autogenderphilia is common [pt. 4]
+_ out of patience email [pt. 4]
+_ "Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception" [pt. 4]
+_ recap of crimes, cont'd [pt. 5]
+_ lead-in to Sept. 2021 Twitter altercation [pt. 5]
+_ Jessica's experience at MIRI and CfAR [pt. 5]
+_ the Death With Dignity era [pt. 5]
+_ regrets, wasted time, conclusion [pt. 5]
+_ include Wilhelm "Gender Czar" conversation? [pt. 2]
+
+not even blocked—
+_ Re: on legitimacy and the entrepreneur; or, continuing the attempt to spread my sociopathic awakening onto Scott [pt. 2 somewhere]
+_ running away to Burlingame; Hamilton tickets
bigger blocks—
_ dath ilan and Eliezerfic fight
-_ reaction to Ziz
_ Dolphin War finish
_ Michael Vassar and the Theory of Optimal Gossip
_ psychiatric disaster
+_ the story of my Feb. 2017 Facebook crusade [pt. 2]
+_ the story of my Feb./Apr. 2017 recent madness [pt. 2]
+_ reaction to Ziz
+
+
+
+New (bad) time estimate:
+35 smaller TODO blocks × 3/day = 12 days
+7 bigger blocks × day/2.5 = 17.5 days
+= 29.5 workdays × 7 sidereal days / 6 workdays = 34.4 sidereal days
+= gapless draft on 17 February??
+
With internet available—
-_ historical accuracy of Gallileo
-_ explain the "if the world were at stake" _Sword of Good_ reference better
-_ a poem I wrote in the _Less Wrong_ comments in 2011
+_ "When you strike at a king"
+_ real-name blog post: jr. member of save/destroy/take-over the world conspiracy
+_ Sequences post making fun of "just make a really big neural net"
+_ DeepMind June 2022 Twitter archive?
+_ January 2021 Capitol riot
+_ No Fire Alarm
_ "not hard to find": link to more /r/itsafetish-like anecdotes
+_ Keltham's masochism insight
_ stats of SIAI vs. SingInst hits (for ^siai footnote)
-_ Yudkowsky on AlphaGo
-_ larger Extropy quote than "otherwise identical"
_ quote other Eliezer Yudkowsky facts
_ footnote about Scott writing six times faster than me
_ include Eric Weinstein in archive.is spree
_ Yudkowsky's LW moderation policy
far editing tier—
+_ explain the "if the world were at stake" Sword of Good reference better
+_ D. also acknowledged AGP
+_ "no one else would have spoken" should have been a call-to-action to read more widely
+_ explain who Kay Brown is
+_ "Great Common Task" is probably capitalized
_ mention Will MacAskill's gimped "longtermism" somehow
_ re-read a DALL-E explanation and decide if I think it's less scary now
_ Scott Aaronson on the blockchain of science https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6821
_ pull "agreeing with Stalin" quote earlier in ms. to argue that Yudkowsky apparently doesn't disagree with my "deliberately ambiguous"
_ is the title of pt. 4 OK? (agreeing with Stalin _is_ correct when Stalin is right; the problem is that Stalin isn't right about gender)
_ illustrate "student dysphoria is worse" with anecdote about leaving physics class and going to the counselor to see if I could graduate earlier?
-_ as an author and a critic, I expect to lose status when my critics make good points, and expect to gain status when my criticism makes good points; communism analogy: you wouldn't expect credibly helpful work to be unpaid; and I have to make this kind of analysis even he didn't _say_ "I'm a communist"
_ hate for secrecy probably correlates with autogynephilia blogging
_ mention Said rigor check somewhere, nervousness about Michael's gang being a mini-egregore
_ at some point, speculate on causes of brain damage
_ the "reducing negativity" post does obliquely hint at the regression point being general ("Let's say that the true level of negativity"), does that seriously undermine my thesis, or does it only merit a footnote?
-_ worth footnoting the "some sort of communist" joke?
_ elaborate on why I'm not leaking sensitive bits, by explaining what can be inferred by what was and wasn't said in public
_ footnote on "no one would even consider"
_ post-Christmas conversation should do a better job of capturing the war, that Jessica thinks Scott is Bad for being a psychiatrist
_ contract-drafting em, SSC blogroll is most of my traffic
_ "Common Interest of Many Causes" and "Kolmogorov Complicity" offer directly contradictory strategies
_ Vassar's about-face on gender
+_ better introduction of S.K.
_ risk of people bouncing off progressivism
_ an AGP teen boy could at least consent to transition, and make plans based on knowing what the thing is (you'd actually want to go through a little bit of male puberty)
+_ "tossed in a bucket" is ignoring advice from Sept. 2022 clarification to be clear about the type distinction
+_ explicitly explain "Hill of Validity" title inversion
_ figure out full timeline of which of my Less Wrong posts to mention
_ update "80,000 words" refs with the near-final wordcount
-
+_ the "outright bad faith" clause in "Your Price for Joining"
+_ less afraid of hurting O.
+_ better explain "lie inflation" ambiguity
+_ backlink "I've decided to drop the pseudonym" to pen name drop post
+_ backlink (/2022/TODO/blanchards-dangerous-idea-and-the-plight-of-the-lucid-crossdreamer/)
+_ backlink "I again refer to" Happy Price
+_ backlink "(again) whether he accepted the Cheerful Price"
+_ backlink "alter the beacon"
terms to explain on first mention—
+_ Valinor
_ "Caliphate"
_ "rationalist"
_ Center for Applied Rationality
Anna thinks trust and integrity is an important resource
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mmHctwkKjpvaQdC3c/what-should-you-change-in-response-to-an-emergency-and-ai
-The HEXACO personality model considers "honesty" and "humility" a single factor
-
(You might group things together _on the grounds_ of their similarly positive consequences—that's what words like _good_ do—but that's distinct from choosing _the categorization itself_ because of its consequences.)
—and would be unforgivable if it weren't so _inexplicable_.
I hate that my religion is bottlenecked on one guy
-https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fStCX6RXmgxkTBe73/towards-a-weaker-longtermism?commentId=Kga3KGx6WAhkNM3qY
-> I am broadly fine with people devoting 50%, 25% or 75% of themselves to longtermism, in that case, as opposed to tearing themselves apart with guilt and ending up doing nothing much, which seems to be the main alternative.
-
https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1405032189708816385
> Egregore psychology is much easier and more knowable than individual human psychology, for the same reason macroscopic matter is more predictable than individual particles. But trying to tell people what the egregore is doing doesn't work because they don't believe in egregores!!
-https://glowfic.com/replies/1882395#reply-1882395
-> the stranger from dath ilan never pretended to be anyone's friend after he stopped being their friend.
-Similarly, you should stop pretending to be a rationality teacher if you're going to be corrupted by politics
-
20 June 2021, "The egregore doesn't care about the past", thematic moments at Valinor
-
You don't want to have a reputation that isn't true; I've screwed up confidentiality before, so I don't want a "good at keeping secrets" reputation; if Yudkowsky doesn't want to live up to the standard of "not being a partisan hack", then ...
Extended analogy between "Scott Alexander is always right" and "Trying to trick me into cutting my dick off"—in neither case would any sane person take it literally, but it's pointing at something important (Scott and EY are trusted intellectual authorities, rats are shameless about transition cheerleading)
What is "It would be OK in dath ilan, but it's not OK on Earth" even supposed to _mean_, if it's not just, "It's OK for people who genetically resemble Eliezer Yudkowsky to deceive the world as long as they have a clever story for why it's all for the greater good, but it's not OK for you, because you're genetically inferior to him"?
-(I was fine with the arrogance in the Sequences, when it seemed like a harmless stylistic affectation during some really valuable lessons, but if "Eliezer Yudkowsky is smarter than you" now just _is the lesson_, it seems like a very different lesson)
-
https://discord.com/channels/936151692041400361/1022006828718104617/1047374488645402684
A. J. Vermillion seems to be complaining that by not uncritically taking the author assertions at face value, I'm breaking the rules of the literary-criticism game—that if the narrator _says_ Civilization was designed to be trustworthy, I have no license to doubt that is "actually" is.
----
-https://discord.com/channels/936151692041400361/1022006828718104617/1054235592961048609
-> rather than, as is more often the case in dath ilan stories, a depiction of a better institution you could build if people were eliezera
-
-(eliezera racial supremacy _is_ the lesson)
Fool! There is no Equilibrium
> We passed word to the Fake Conspiracy section of Exception Handling, and they've spent the last few hours quickly planting evidence consistent with how Civilization should look if the Sparashki are real. The notion being that their apparent fictional status and licensing is just a cover, so Sparashki can walk around if they have to and just get compliments on their incredible cosplay. Since this event is medium-secret, the CEO of Yattel's Less Expensive Tunneling Machines has been photographed by surprise through a window, looking like a Sparashki, to explain why conspiracy-theoretic research is suddenly focusing there and turning up the evidence we've planted."
https://glowfic.com/replies/1860952#reply-1860952
-
the generic experience is that the future is more capable but less aligned, and we basically expect this to continue
people from the past would envy our refrigeration, vaccines, infinite food, &c., but that doesn't mean they would regard our value-drifted-with-respect-to-them culture as superior
paperclipping is just that turned up to 11 (well, 10¹¹)
+
+Bostrom's apology for an old email—who is this written for?? Why get ahead, when you could just not comment?
+
+[TODO:
+
+https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1404697716689489921
+> I have never in my own life tried to persuade anyone to go trans (or not go trans)—I don't imagine myself to understand others that much.
+
+If you think it "sometimes personally prudent and not community-harmful" to go out of your way to say positive things about Republican candidates and never, ever say positive things about Democratic candidates (because you "don't see what the alternative is besides getting shot"), you can see why people might regard you as a _Republican shill_—even if all the things you said were true, and even if you never told any specific individual, "You should vote Republican."
+
+https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10154110278349228
+> Just checked my filtered messages on Facebook and saw, "Your post last night was kind of the final thing I needed to realize that I'm a girl."
+> ==DOES ALL OF THE HAPPY DANCE FOREVER==
+
+https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1404821285276774403
+> It is not trans-specific. When people tell me I helped them, I mostly believe them and am happy.
+]
+
+the rats were supposed to be an alternative to academic orthodoxy (such that we could just jump to the correct decision theory without the political fighting needing to dethrone CDT), but we're still under the authority of the egregore
+
+(from October 2016 email to Scott)
+This is not an advanced rationalist skill! This is the "distinguishing fantasy from reality" skill! People will quote your "Categories Were Made for the Man" in defense of the idea that someone can be biologically male, think of themselves as a boy, be thought of by others as a boy, and yet still actually have been a girl at the time by virtue of deciding to transition years later. I've been told that "Gender is a floating tag which has one substantial consequence, which is comfort of the people being addressed"!
+
+https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1612937#reply-1612937
+> Citizens can't control processes they can't see. For that clever-reason it was then illegal for any of the Nine Legislators to meet with each other, or speak with any Representative, except as a matter of public record.
+
+November 5, 2019
+11/5/19, 2:09 AM
+Ziz
+Ziz
+To your memory, am I under any confidentiality agreements with you? Or did we mutually release each other from the only one that one time?
+November 5, 2019
+11/5/19, 9:24 AM
+You sent
+you are not under any confidentiality agreements with me
+
+https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1764946#reply-1764946
+> This is Keltham desperately pretending not to be at all starstruck, because he was not previously way into the Merrin fandom but even he has heard of the Ordinary Merrin Conspiracy, wherein Merrin has some weird psychological hangup about believing she is a totally normal and ordinary person or even something of a struggling low achiever, and everybody in Civilization is coordinating to pretend around her that ordinary normal people totally get their weird Exception Handling training scenarios televised to a million watchers on a weekly basis.
+
+> It makes her - simultaneously an ultra-high-achieving role model who's much more famous than you are, and also, somebody who's committing this very large cognitive error where you know better than her about it. Which is not usually something you can say about a major public figure, you would not usually expect to be in a position where you would ever know about a cognitive error a public figure was committing, because they'd already have advisors much much smarter than you. But if you screw Merrin, you're not, like, just some strictly vastly inferior being that she's allowed into her cuddleroom. There is at least one topic you could totally win an argument with her about, as judged by impartial judges: namely, is she in fact a fairly ordinary person really. But you must never ever mention it in front of her.
+
+https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fStCX6RXmgxkTBe73/towards-a-weaker-longtermism?commentId=Kga3KGx6WAhkNM3qY
+> I am broadly fine with people devoting 50%, 25% or 75% of themselves to longtermism, in that case, as opposed to tearing themselves apart with guilt and ending up doing nothing much, which seems to be the main alternative.
+
+for normal people, when your favorite author gets worse, you just shrug and accept it and enjoy the classics, but when your favorite author is also the Pope of your religion and also in several Discord servers with you, you end up wasting a lot of time scrutinizing their emoji-reacts
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / blobdiff