Still citing it (December 21 podcast): https://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2021/12/152-frame-control-with-aella/
+Still citing it (2 February 22): https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-do-i-suck/comment/4838964
+
The correctness of this post has been disputed at length: [object-level reply](http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/), [meta-level reply (part 1)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries), [meta-level reply (part 2)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception), [supplementary material on dolphins/whales](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water)
-----
-There's a glowfic thread where Thellim is _horrified_ at how shallow and superficial Jane Austen characters are, in contrast to what a human being _should_ be: "Real people have concepts of their own minds, and contemplate their prior ideas of themselves in relation to a continually observed flow of their actual thoughts, and try to improve both their self-models and their selves."
-
-This horror is basically how I feel about trans culture. It actively discourages self-modeling! (People who have cross-sex fantasies are encouraged to reify them into an gender identity which everyone else is supposed to unquestioningly accept. Politically-unfavorable critical questions about what's actually going on etiologically, what it means for an identity to be true, _&c._ are strongly discouraged as hateful, hurtful, distressing, _&c._)
-
-https://www.glowfic.com/posts/4508?page=20
-
-_She is not giving up that easily. Not on an entire planet full of people._
-
-https://www.glowfic.com/posts/4508?page=21
-
------
-
> [African-Americans as an ethnic group were] fundamentally created by a gigantic act of human violation and cruelty
https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/ruvu1k/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_january_03/hrdqmzk/
----
-in the context of quantifying predictions, [in the post evaluating his 2020 predictions, Alexander writes](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2020-predictions-calibration-results):
-
-> We have a debate every year over whether 50% predictions are meaningful in this paradigm; feel free to continue it.
-
-Someone reading this who trusted Alexander as a general-purpose intellectual authority ("the best of us", the "rationalists") might walk away with the idea that it's an open problem whether 50% binary predictions are meaningful—perhaps reasoning, if the immortal Scott Alexander doesn't know, then who am I to know?
-
-But it's not. On this website, [Rafael Harth explains why 50% isn't special](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAc4iuy4D3EiNBt9B/how-to-evaluate-50-predictions). I claim that this should actually be pretty obvious to competent quantitative thinkers, even if it's not obvious to the collective _SSC_/_ACX_ commentariat, and Alexander can't tell which of his commenters are competent quantitative thinkers.
-
-I don't particularly fault Scott for this: [by his own admission, he's not a math guy](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/31/the-parable-of-the-talents/). (And the vast majority of math people can't write as well or as fast as Scott. No one is the best at everything!) Rather, I'm saying that a culture that wants to _actually_ be right about everything would do better to _just_ focus on being right on the object level, without [wireheading on its own promises of being right about everything](http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/effective-altruism-is-self-recommending/).
-
-(Incidentally, Scott himself is actually very good about [not trying to claim more authority than is actually justified by his performance](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/07/04/some-clarifications-on-rationalist-blogging/). His fans should try to be more like him along this dimension!)
-
https://fairplayforwomen.com/transgender-prisoners/
https://www.facebook.com/zmdavis/posts/10156642447060199
Mom's attitude towards son's obvious AGP flips on coming out
https://twitter.com/DrLesby/status/1484688293346234370
+
+https://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/transgender-reality-i-didnt-know-there-was-another-side/
+
+https://sadbrowngirl.substack.com/p/the-way-we-werent
+
+https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2022/02/01/what-the-sex-in-the-city-reboot-can-teach-parents-about-gender-questioning-kids/
+
+sex and occupational interests replication; I think surprisingly discrete cluster graph is averages by country across people vs. things (which is how it ends up being so discrete; it's not tracking individuals on multiple levels)
+https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0261438
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/61883/wear-what-you-want-why-i-ve-changed-my-mind
+> They only wear our clothing because they haven't found a way to wear our skin yet.
+
+https://mrwinstonmarshall.medium.com/why-im-leaving-mumford-sons-e6e731bbc255
+
+John Stuart Mill also believed that the best people are androgynous: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00048402.1986.9755426?journalCode=rajp20
+
+Blogroll maybe? https://strigoi.substack.com/p/a-few-notes-on-agp
+
+https://dnyuz.com/2022/02/18/nyt-under-fire-for-chilling-advert-inviting-readers-to-imagine-harry-potter-without-creator/
+
+https://lacroicsz.substack.com/p/by-any-other-name
+
+----
+
+I found my chat history with S. that I thought was missing when she deleted her Facebook!! September 2016
+
+Z: I can't know what's going on in anyone else's head, but my case is _obviously obviously obviously_ a form of bizarrely misdirected heterosexuality, and I'm really really grateful to Blanchard for coining the world \"autogynephilia\" and really really disappointed that the political incentives line up such that anyone who says this out loud is socially punished
+S: Hm, so, like, you could date girls better if you were a girl?
+Z: no, it's a lot weirder than that
+Z: The idea of having female anatomy oneself and being able to appreciate it from the first person is intrinsically more exciting than the mere third-person appreciation that you can do in ordinary real life as a man.
+Z: Much more speculatively: if you think about this a lot under circumstances where you, um, receive positive reinforcement, it acutally does bleed into your self-concept, and some men interpret this as \"Ah, this was my innate gender identity all along; it just took me a while to notice because of [some ridiculous confabulation]
+Z: ... when that's really _not_ what's going on at _all_
+Z: This sounds insane if you haven't personally experienced it and only know the socially-deriable narratives that people write about publicly
+[...]
+Z: ... I hope this is scientifically interesting rather than unforgiveably creepy to even talk about
+S: hm, this is interesting
+S: so, like, literal autogynephilia is a thing?
+Z: in me, Yes Obviously Yes
+Z: a lot of people who otherwise fit the clinical profile deny it, many others report having such fantasies but claim that it must be an effect rather than a cause of gender dysphoria, or claim that it's just like cis women appreciating their own bodies, or something like that
+S: (data point: my only effective sex fantasy is \"me as hot girl\", it's crass but so it goes)
+
+"I expect that to be a qualitatively distinct phenomenon, both on priors and, um, details that probably would be creepy to talk about",
+S; "ok",
+S: "so, like, you believe that autogynephilia is a real thing & in your case you don't have lots of desires to be seen as a girl, have a girl name, etc?"
+"no, I _also_ have long history of non-sexual I-should-be-a-girl-or-at-least-non-masculine themed self-identity thoughts (I hope that my ponytail and clean-shavenness help visually distinguish me from guys who are proud of being guys; there was a years where I tried going by \"Z.M.\" because I wanted an ostensibly gender-neutral name but eventually gave that up because it didn't feel like a name and in order to get people to call you something different you have to yell at them constantly, which I wasn't assertive enough to do for something that didn't feel like a name; feeling happy about getting \"ma'am\"ed over the phone or being told that someone assumed I was gay; feeling happy about feminine pronouns)",
+ "... but that all developed in the years _after_ puberty",
+and this is not a coincidence, because nothing is ever a coincidence. (At least, in my current model)
+
+S: hm. so male puberty was a thing you did not like.
+Z: no, puberty was fine
+Z: Your previous message feels like you're instinctually rounding off my report to the standard narrative, whereas what I'm saying is that the standard was-always-a-girl-in-some-metaphysical-sense narrative (at least for me, I think for many others) is not truuuuuuuue
+S: "oh ok",
+"i'm just trying to figure out what the thing is",
+"\"men who love women and want to become what they love\"",
+"hm",
+"So, given that I have the experimental result that I couldn't even make a _nickname change_ work, transition is obviously completely out of the question, particularly because I would feel like a fraud because I think that (late-onset) trans women are not women (I know, I won't say that in public)",
+S: if that's your true belief about yourself then why isn't the answer \"don't\"?"
+Z: well, so I'm thinking in terms of \"experiment with drugs, but don't tell anyone\" model"
+S: ....it will show.
+
+[...]
+
+Z" "the thing is, I don't think it's actually that uncommon! http://lesswrong.com/lw/xe/changing_emotions/ It's just that there's no script for it and no one wants to talk about it!",
+S" "ok, *very* weird",
+"yeah, I just don't have a built-in empathic handle for \"wants to be a woman.\""
+Z: "it even has a TVTrope! http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ManIFeelLikeAWoman",
+S" "ok, yeah. wow. it's really just easier for my brain to go \"ok, that's a girl\" than to understand why anyone would want boobs",
+Z: "... which is why the standard \"Oh, 'autogynephilia' is really just normal female sexuality as expressed in someone who was unfortunately assigned-male-at-birth\" dodge seems like such a ludicrous rationalization to me",
+
+[...]
+
+S: "I could *work* with \"girl!Zach is a precious delicate flower.\" I am not sure wha t to do with \"Zach wants to try this body hack.\""
+
+I said, "if http://unremediatedgender.space/ ever gets popular, I expect to be smeared on Andrea James's website, too!" and that came true, except she made a bad guess about my True Name https://www.transgendermap.com/community/michael-mcclure/
+
+-----
+
+go-to link for "current year" trope: https://www.theonion.com/report-stating-current-year-still-leading-argument-for-1819576151
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / blobdiff