check in before a long confrontation
[Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git] / notes / notes.txt
index 9a6dde1..71fe940 100644 (file)
@@ -1890,6 +1890,8 @@ Still citing it (25 March 22): https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/tj525b
 
 Still citing it (13 May 22): https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FkFTXKeFxwcGiBTwk/against-longtermist-as-an-identity
 
+Still citing it, in Eliezerfic Discord (18 Jul 22): https://discord.com/channels/936151692041400361/954750671280807968/998638253588631613
+
 The correctness of this post has been disputed at length: [object-level reply](http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/), [meta-level reply (part 1)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries), [meta-level reply (part 2)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception), [supplementary material on dolphins/whales](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water)
 
 Object-level reply: http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/
@@ -3164,3 +3166,31 @@ https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/06/27/the-invention-of-the-trans-novel-i
 
 preference cascade is starting ...
 https://twitter.com/jessesingal/status/1538541182975877120
+
+[quantifying the two-type effect:
+GD occupations in study 2
+gay men are at .48 (.14); straight women at .36 (.13); straight men at .68 (.12)
+that's d=–1.61 between gay and straight men
+a gay man only needs to be 1 standard deviation (.48-.36 = 0.12) more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight women
+whereas a straight man needs to be (.68-.36 = 0.32) 0.32/0.12=2.67 more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight woman—that's rarer, but not impossible
+
+In percentile terms, 1-norm.cdf(1) = 0.15 of gay men are as feminine as a woman
+whereas 1-norm.cdf(2.67) = 0.003 of straight men are
+that's a likelihood ratio of 50 ... but the prior is not that far from 50:1 in the other direction! They cancel out!!]
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/115874/shirley-conran-s-lace-body-slammed-agp-back-in-1982
+
+https://pitt.substack.com/p/headline-when-a-quarter-of-the-class
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/vlopk0/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_june_27_2022/ieo2jzm/
+> Obsessive, pedantic, Talmudic talk of edge cases, cluster definitions, Bayesian filters or whatever else grey tribe weirdos might get fascinated with only gets in the way of an honest negotiation of a value handshake between majority groups. Not that I believe it would've taken place in a world with zero rationalists, but it's still annoying.
+
+> Me in 2008: I'm definitely not trans, just a regular guy who always thinks about being a woman and hates clothes shopping and hates hanging out with the guys and thinks about getting testicular cancer and loves gender-swap movies and TV shows and you know, normal guy things
+https://twitter.com/lauroralei/status/1548861652636139520
+
+24% black judges is pretty extreme affirmative action (if you know the IQ stats): https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1549237889128509440
+
+They don't think this is a pornography app, but it is
+https://samsunglabs.github.io/MegaPortraits/
+
+https://drmaciver.substack.com/p/a-fractal-of-lies