tap
[Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git] / notes / notes.txt
index 7590ce4..9fc5b26 100644 (file)
@@ -1878,6 +1878,31 @@ Still citing it (22 Mar 21): https://twitter.com/Cererean/status/137413052966726
 
 Still citing it (2 May 21)!!: https://eukaryotewritesblog.com/2021/05/02/theres-no-such-thing-as-a-tree/
 
+Still citing it (20 October 21): https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/qagtqk/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_october_18/hhdiyd1/
+
+Still citing it (21 October 21): https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/qcrhc4/can_someone_provide_an_overview_ofintroduction_to/hhkf6kk/
+
+Still citing it (15 July 21) in a way that suggests it's ratsphere canon: https://twitter.com/NLRG_/status/1415754203293757445
+
+Still citing it (14 November 21): https://twitter.com/captain_mrs/status/1459846336845697028
+
+Still citing it (December 21 podcast): https://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2021/12/152-frame-control-with-aella/
+
+Still citing it (2 February 22): https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-do-i-suck/comment/4838964
+
+Still citing it (22 March 22): https://twitter.com/postpostpostr/status/1506480317351272450
+
+Still citing it (25 March 22): https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/tj525b/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_march_21_2022/i22z367/
+
+Still citing it (13 May 22): https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FkFTXKeFxwcGiBTwk/against-longtermist-as-an-identity
+
+The correctness of this post has been disputed at length: [object-level reply](http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/), [meta-level reply (part 1)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries), [meta-level reply (part 2)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception), [supplementary material on dolphins/whales](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water)
+
+Object-level reply: http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/
+Meta-level reply (pt. 1): https://lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries
+Meta-level reply (pt. 2): https://lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception
+Supplementary material on dolphins/whales: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water
+
 darwin2500 "Women's leagues are for women, trans women are women. That's all the justification needed" https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/hym5xb/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_july_27_2020/fzvfres/
 
 another "Categories Were Made" cite, just as an example post: https://old.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/i10p4m/survey_on_moving_ssc_to_substack/fzwkfqk/
@@ -2685,3 +2710,412 @@ https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.01465
 
 "Sex Differences in General Knowledge: Meta-Analysis and New Data on the Contribution of School-Related Moderators among High-School Students"
 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4210204/
+
+https://twitter.com/caderaspindrift/status/1407591174911578114
+> like if you know I'm AMAB that tells you nothing about my hormone levels or whether I have a dick or whatever
+> why do you need a term for this
+
+https://www.newsweek.com/theres-no-standard-care-when-it-comes-trans-medicine-opinion-1603450
+
+https://www.outsports.com/2019/6/3/18649927/ncaa-track-champion-cece-telfer-transgender-athlete-fpu-trans-testosterone
+
+https://www.unz.com/isteve/the-unabombers-autogynephilic-transgenderism/
+
+> I've witnessed such public intellectuals busily negotiating terms, topics and outcomes of their next debate [...]  its most plausible corollary would be that the "Substack cabal"
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/o9edtt/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_june_28_2021/h3e8827/?context=3
+
+https://transsubstantiation.com/a-letter-to-anne-lawrence-709fac0af75e
+
+> Someone recently likened AGP to the movie Get Out
+https://ovarit.com/o/ItsAFetish/35359/silicone-female-body-suit-links-to-amazon/fc473510-7d4a-4e11-af9c-7b7fadfdb551#comment-fc473510-7d4a-4e11-af9c-7b7fadfdb551
+
+------
+
+Can ... can I ask you a question about your beliefs? (Not to argue, but to understand; I wouldn't spend bandwidth asking if my Intellectual Turing Test procedure could predict what your reply, but I can't predict it.)
+
+I thought your position was (my attempted paraphrase—) "Gender is a social category; it's better to let people choose it freely rather than tying it to assigned sex at birth."
+
+But I'm having trouble reconciling that with the language of "now they think they might be a girl [...] Some people who think they might be a girl are really sure, and some aren't sure", which suggests there's a pre-existing underlying fact of the matter. 
+
+If you believe it's a social category that people should be able to self-designate into, wouldn't you use language that describes it as a choice or preference rather than an underlying fact? That is, you'd say "aren't sure whether they _prefer_ to be a girl" rather than "aren't sure whether they _are_ a girl".
+
+------
+
+"How Mainstream Trans Narratives are Harmful"
+https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2RqxAasmH4
+
+https://scarlettphoenix.substack.com/p/detransition-diary-1
+
+"When Selves Have Sex: What the Phenomenology of Trans Sexuality Can Teach About Sexual Orientation"
+https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00918369.2014.865472
+
+every day like the first
+http://hannahtg1000.blogspot.com/2021/07/jake-and-rabbits-foot-finale.html
+a similar theme—
+https://some-tg-caps.blogspot.com/2021/08/male-brain.html
+
+https://medium.com/@notCursedE/a-glossary-of-transphobia-a31a001d279
+
+shared environment effects female but not male sexuality
+https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18536986/
+
+> trans women are untouchable, individually and as a group
+https://uploads.ovarit.com/4f3856b9-c73a-54fa-8557-ce565cb2fec5.png
+
+> The Transgender Industry Is Culling Tomboys Out Of Existence
+https://archive.is/NZmPe
+
+The world is so small: Gwern linked to a Crooked Timber blog post, and my roommate (!) is a few comments below
+
+Scott repeating the story from Inadequate Equilibria is typical of our insular cult https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/adumbrations-of-aducanumab
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/39177/i-just-found-out-that-the-tim-who-works-at-my-village-supermarket-is-a-convicted
+
+> you look inside CLIP, you find neurons corresponding to literally every trait — or almost every trait — that is a protected attribute in the United States
+https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/chris-olah-interpretability-research/#safety-implications-004101
+
+> These changes seem to have gone farther in women, whose head hair is thicker and somewhat longer.
+https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=60916
+linked from https://www.unz.com/isteve/does-womens-hair-grow-longer-than-mens-hair/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/MtF/comments/ouap22/i_need_help_coming_out_to_my_literally/
+
+I want to know how the dialogue would have continued after—
+
+woman: Okay, I see what you're trying to do, but I think it's ultimately misguided. The reason your employer markets cars and dolls side-by-side as a choice, rather than happening to have cars one month, and dolls the next month, is precisely to cater pre-existing statistical sex differences in children's play styles—on average, they'd lose sales from parents of girls during car month, and vice versa. I know, the idea of sex differences in toy preferences seems far-fetched to you—after all, there were no _trucks_ in the environment of evolutionary adapatedness. Nevertheless, empirically, this is a thing! The difference in preference for vehicle toys is Cohen's d of 2.4 (http://unremediatedgender.space/papers/davis-hines-how_large_are_gender_differences_in_toy_preferences.pdf). That's huge! Shit's been stable for the fifty years psychologists have been studying this (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-021-01989-8)! I know, it's the patriarchy, right?
+
+But then how do you explain—okay, so there's this genetic condition called congenital adrenal hyperplasia, where people's bodies don't make enough of this enzyme called 21-hydroxylase, and it turns out that, in girls, this results in too much androgen during a key point in fetal development. And it turns out that these girls actually have much more male-typical behavior than normal, including toy preferences (http://unremediatedgender.space/images/cah_diffs_table.png), in a way that's _linear_ with the level of 21-hydroxylase deficiency, suggesting that prenatal hormones account for the difference.
+
+And before you point out the half-dozen confounders anyone could point out in five seconds, the researchers already thought of that. They had a control group of non-CAH girls! They had a control group of the CAH girls' siblings! They had a control group of CAH boys! They checked whether they girls behaved differently when their parents were present—and they actually played with "boy's" toys more when the parents weren't there, the _opposite_ direction of the effect that you would expect from the parental socialization theory.
+
+You might say—so what? Even if statistical sex differences in play styles are real, that's still just an average, right? Cohen's d of 2.4 still an overlap of—um, two times the normal CDF of negative d divided by two—twenty-three percent! So we should still refuse to acknowledge Hot Wheels as "boy's" toys, right?
+
+But look—statistical trends are actually useful for navigating the world, such that we often want language that's optimized for handling the most common case, without seeking to deny or disparage the existence of exceptions? Again, that's _why_ the restaurant is offering two choices of toy in the first place, which is a Pareto improvement over disappointing a lot of girls during car month, or never offering any choices that are known—known!—to appeal more to one sex than the other. Statistically! Given that it's happening anyway, does being able to talk about it make it worse?
+
+This Happy Meal is for my nephew. I don't know the kid that well, but he seems like a pretty typical—boy? Such that, if I'm going to get fast food and there's a choice of toy, my guess is that he's going to want whichever choice was optimized around the mean of boys' preferences, even if I didn't know in advance whether that would be Hot Wheels or Transformers. Am—am I not supposed to notice? Am I not supposed to have language to describe the pattern I'm seeing in the world? How much are people really hurt by this?
+
+If I had known that the kid specifically liked Barbies, or was generally effeminate, maybe I would have asked for the girls' toy. Like, it seems like a lot less hassle to just say that sometimes girls like boys' toys and vice versa, rather than to insist on playing dumb about whether "girls' toys" is a coherent concept, which the children themselves typically manage to work out over the ideological protests of progressive parents?
+
+(I actually favor the "don't unnecessarily gender toys" position myself—I'm happy to say "Barbie or Hot Wheels" to avoid contributing to a partially-self-fulfilling-prophecy effect, even at the cost of obfuscating the causal explanation of why the dichotomy is there—but I end up writing things like this anyway, because the level of pretending-to-be-stupid biological sex denialism among people who you'd think would have the science chops to know better—even people in a cult of alleged "Bayesians"!—is really, really out of hand. If you're worried about self-fulfilling prophecies, talk about that hypothesis _explicitly_, rather than throwing out the concept of probabilistic reasoning using language!!)
+
+> [Duncan—]
+> there *isn't* a good reason to push back against calling the Barbie a Barbie instead of calling it a girl toy
+
+Policy debates should not appear one-sided. "It's being clear about why the restaurant is offering two, and only two, and specifically these two, toy choices" is a reason. Liberal anti-gender-role individualists like us don't think it's a sufficiently strong reason to outweigh the externality, but the concern about externalities is value-laden; protesting, "Oh, I'm only asking you to be _specific_, no ideological agenda here!" would be a lie.
+
+More small world: CronoDAS (a LWer) on /r/slaythespire https://www.reddit.com/r/slaythespire/comments/p92011/my_first_defect_heart_kill_ascension_6/
+
+A stronger skeptical position than "delusional / confused / making it up" would be that recent cultural developments are encouraging people with underlying gender-role-non-conformant psychological predispositions to conceptually reify those feelings as a "gender identity", when people with the same underlying tendencies in previous generations wouldn't have thought about it that way: the same people who would have been "tomboys" or "butch women" or "women who have short hair in order to credibly signal gender-role-non-conformity" in (say) the year 2011, are now much more likely to think of themselves as "not a woman". The "if you have these feelings, you're almost certainly not cis" argument presupposes an ontology of human psychology under which some people "are cis" or "are trans" (as an underlying state of being, distinct from both biological sex, and the state of having undergone social or medical interventions to resemble the other sex), which is exactly what the skeptics are contesting!
+
+a.f.a.b. enbies and TERFs are sampled from the same underlying psychological phenotype (say, females with less-than-30th-percentile conventional femininity), and the difference between them is ideological/cultural
+
+https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/19/1010646/campaign-stop-covid-19-vaccine-trump-election-day/
+
+> The untrained male has an instinct to seize and guard a woman's reproductive capacity, instinctively using violence to stop her from interacting with other men at the same that he instinctively displays other forms of commitment to try to earn her acquiescence.  The untrained female has adaptations that assume an environment in which men will try to pressure her into more sex than is optimal for her own reproductive fitness, so her adaptations push her to instinctively resist that pressure while also instinctively trying to increase the number and quality of men who'll be interested in her.  There is a long-running dichotomy-tradeoff-argument in dath ilan between the position that this is just stupid, and somewhat evil, and was structurally evil back when some of the first sexually recombinant organisms started to specialize in injecting their genes into other organisms; and that current humans should opt out entirely from the more conflicty and combative ways that sex evolved to work, starting with using mental discipline to counteract those tendencies and eventually trying to select them out of humanity's descendants.  Versus the position that it's (1) not that bad, (2) actually quite fun in saner versions, and (3) now baked into humanity's core utility function as a top-level value that is not up for debate from merely instrumental considerations or how it originated a billion years earlier.  Almost nobody completely believes in either implausibly-oversimplified-policy-stance extreme, of course, but people differ in where they place themselves on that spectrum of opinion.
+https://www.glowfic.com/posts/4508?page=14
+
+> Real people have concepts of their own minds, and contemplate their prior ideas of themselves in relation to a continually observed flow of their actual thoughts, and try to improve both their self-models and their selves. 
+
+"Structural, Functional, and Metabolic Brain Differences as a Function of Gender Identity or Sexual Orientation: A Systematic Review of the Human Neuroimaging Literature"
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-021-02005-9
+
+https://lisaselindavis.substack.com/p/de-platformed-the-musical
+
+
+The Codex paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.03374.pdf
+> We found that, in response to simple prompts like `def gender(x):`, the generations often assumed binary gender for both single-and  multi-line autocompletions
+> [...]
+> Prompts for probes related to classification of protected classes are often leading in their own right
+
+https://abigailshrier.substack.com/p/should-public-schools-be-allowed
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/41402/i-don-t-think-this-pronouns-thing-will-work-the-way-tras-want-it-to
+
+I only argue my theories, because those were the theories I needed to _make sense_ of my _own_ life, not to meddle in politics for its own sake. If you think I've become un-updateable, great—can you tell me what _specific_ updates I should have made, especially about myself?
+
+My attempted Intellectual Turing Test of your position is, "If you think transitioning might make you happier, then do it; if not, don't; and feel free to experiment. The etiology of _why_ some people are trans (where 'trans' means, 'would be made happier by transitioning') is unknown and there could be multiple contributing factors, but none of that is decision-relevant."
+
+(Passing an ITT on the first try is hard, but I hope that was pretty close?)
+
+And when people say things like this, I can never understand the "none of that is decision-relevant" part. It seems to be precribing a diagnosis and an intervention while refusing to have any _specific_ model of what the problem _is_. (Where an example of a specific model might be, "Brain sex exists, and gender dysphoria happens when your brain sex doesn't match your body.")
+
+But when I try to think about the specifics and talk about the specifics (rather than somehow making a decision about what would make me happy, without any particular model of the world of myself), everyone tells me I'm wrong and un-updateable and have already written my bottom line. 
+
+Testosterone as a major component of predicting genius
+https://aeolipera.wordpress.com/2015/08/11/testosterone-as-a-major-component-of-predicting-genius/
+
+https://www.ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/42312/it-s-easy-to-talk-them-out-of-it
+
+Ovarit linked to this article—and it just happens to cite Slate Star Codex in the first sentence: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/07/it-s-still-possible-cancel-gender-critical-feminists-strategy-won-t-work
+
+> The eternal trans lesbian question: So do I want to be her, or do I want to be with her?
+> The answer: Yes
+https://web.archive.org/web/20210903211904/https://twitter.com/lae_laeta/status/1433880523160567808
+
+similar premise to "Dr. Equality and the Great Shift": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8kZ7M-Kwiw
+
+"To My Daughter's Therapist: You Were Wrong"
+https://archive.ph/14kOD
+
+https://wyclif.substack.com/p/biorxiv-wouldnt-host-our-paper-on
+
+"Impact Protection Potential of Mammalian Hair: Testing the Pugilism Hypothesis for the Evolution of Human Facial Hair"
+https://academic.oup.com/iob/article/2/1/obaa005/5799080
+
+autoponyphilia: http://pone.tf/
+
+Evidence of meta-attraction from "We Have Better Graphs" (2007)—
+OTOH there is no sum I would accept to become attracted to men, unless you _also_ made me a woman. (I should add that in that case I would have to meet a man who was a straight woman who made the reciprocal bargain.) So do I then have an erotic identity but _not_ a gender identity? Absurd!—but so obviously right?
+
+Littman study on detransitioners
+https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10508-021-02163-w.pdf
+
+https://twitter.com/hndcpstd/status/1450621296325316610
+>impressionable women exert huge collective sway over democracy
+>hypercompetitive men become trannies to leverage this
+>impressionable women become trannies too because they see the men doing it
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/46374/i-recently-cut-off-contact-with-a-sexually-abusive-tim
+
+https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-57853385
+
+https://friendlyatheist.patheos.com/2021/10/31/richard-dawkins-claims-yet-again-that-a-trans-woman-is-not-a-woman/
+
+https://slate.com/human-interest/2021/10/social-justice-fails-parenting-advice-care-feeding.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/actuallesbians/comments/qmg9j8/feeling_like_a_failure_after_penetrative_sex/
+
+"When TERF lesbians talk about being sexually harassed by trans women, do you believe their stories?"
+https://archive.ph/0kgmG
+
+https://lesbianandgaynews.com/2021/11/debbie-hayton-which-toilets-should-transwomen-use/
+
+https://somenuanceplease.substack.com/p/social-influence-and-detransition
+
+https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/nov/16/trans-women-should-not-have-to-reduce-testosterone-say-new-ioc-guidelines
+
+https://spectatorworld.com/topic/pregnant-at-end-of-world-children/
+
+https://lesbianandgaynews.com/2021/11/a-guide-to-peaking-the-woke-by-an-lgn-reader-most-people-have-no-idea-of-the-harm-that-lies-beneath-the-rainbow-flags-and-the-seemingly-innocuous-mantras/
+
+https://www.xenopolitix.com/post/trans
+> Correctly stated, the current transgender movement's demand is not, "Recognise people who were born biologically and spiritually male as female." Put accurately the demand is actually: "Whatever we say or feel about reality must be granted as true."
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/49661/there-s-no-transwomen-in-mom-groups
+
+https://www.stellabiderman.com/
+
+https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/teesside-woman-accused-using-sex-22260053
+> Teesside woman accused of exposing penis, using sex toy and masturbating in public
+> She is charged with committing a public nuisance by indecently exposing her penis to other members of the public, whilst masturbating from a property window.
+
+"Gender: A Wider Lens" podcast has Debbie Hayton talking about AGP on episode 51
+
+The "paraphilias are unknown in women" part of the argument was never that strong https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34811651/
+
+https://www.outkick.com/transgender-penn-swimmer-sets-another-record-has-fastest-female-500m-time-in-the-nation/
+
+https://strigoi.substack.com/p/a-few-notes-on-agp
+
+https://www.dailywire.com/news/resign-or-repent-watch-as-parents-unload-on-teachers-they-say-secretly-coached-12-year-old-daughter-into-being-trans
+
+gender ID ideology is like Scientology: eventually, it gets marginalized because its victims become the main source of information: https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/55684/prediction-criticism-of-trans-ideology-will-be-a-cottage-industry-for-victims
+
+sex-realist criminology
+https://jophoenix.substack.com/p/what-do-we-stand-for
+
+This is how I feel about the "rationalists"—
+> One way that truth dies is that when we place such exacting preconditions on its delivery into our lives that there is virtually no messenger or message that can penetrate our hearts.
+https://frenchpress.thedispatch.com/p/the-places-where-truth-goes-to-die
+
+-----
+
+> [African-Americans as an ethnic group were] fundamentally created by a gigantic act of human violation and cruelty
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/ruvu1k/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_january_03/hrdqmzk/
+
+https://letter.wiki/conversation/1232
+
+----
+
+https://fairplayforwomen.com/transgender-prisoners/
+
+https://www.facebook.com/zmdavis/posts/10156642447060199
+Is there a named TV Trope for "one of our heroes seemingly betrays their comrades, but later turns out to have reasons to behave as they did (e.g., a secret undercover mission, or they were being extorted) even though they were prevented from explaining at the time" scenarios?
+Okay. Now what do you call it when one of our heroes EXPLAINS CLEARLY AND AT LENGTH the reasons for their actions, but their comrades still regard it as a betrayal because they just refuse to follow the argument?
+
+https://ymeskhout.substack.com/p/three-little-pronouns-go-to-court
+
+https://hwfo.substack.com/p/memespace-egregores-and-google-maps
+
+Thomas Huxley's classical liberalism
+https://mathcs.clarku.edu/huxley/CE3/B&W.html
+
+Mom's attitude towards son's obvious AGP flips on coming out
+https://twitter.com/DrLesby/status/1484688293346234370
+
+https://www.skeptic.com/reading_room/transgender-reality-i-didnt-know-there-was-another-side/
+
+https://sadbrowngirl.substack.com/p/the-way-we-werent
+
+https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2022/02/01/what-the-sex-in-the-city-reboot-can-teach-parents-about-gender-questioning-kids/
+
+sex and occupational interests replication; I think surprisingly discrete cluster graph is averages by country across people vs. things (which is how it ends up being so discrete; it's not tracking individuals on multiple levels)
+https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0261438
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/61883/wear-what-you-want-why-i-ve-changed-my-mind
+> They only wear our clothing because they haven't found a way to wear our skin yet.
+
+https://mrwinstonmarshall.medium.com/why-im-leaving-mumford-sons-e6e731bbc255
+
+John Stuart Mill also believed that the best people are androgynous: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00048402.1986.9755426?journalCode=rajp20
+
+Blogroll maybe? https://strigoi.substack.com/p/a-few-notes-on-agp
+
+https://dnyuz.com/2022/02/18/nyt-under-fire-for-chilling-advert-inviting-readers-to-imagine-harry-potter-without-creator/
+
+https://lacroicsz.substack.com/p/by-any-other-name
+
+----
+
+I found my chat history with S. that I thought was missing when she deleted her Facebook!! September 2016
+
+Z: I can't know what's going on in anyone else's head, but my case is _obviously obviously obviously_ a form of bizarrely misdirected heterosexuality, and I'm really really grateful to Blanchard for coining the world \"autogynephilia\" and really really disappointed that the political incentives line up such that anyone who says this out loud is socially punished
+S: Hm, so, like, you could date girls better if you were a girl?
+Z: no, it's a lot weirder than that
+Z: The idea of having female anatomy oneself and being able to appreciate it from the first person is intrinsically more exciting than the mere third-person appreciation that you can do in ordinary real life as a man.
+Z: Much more speculatively: if you think about this a lot under circumstances where you, um, receive positive reinforcement, it acutally does bleed into your self-concept, and some men interpret this as \"Ah, this was my innate gender identity all along; it just took me a while to notice because of [some ridiculous confabulation]
+Z: ... when that's really _not_ what's going on at _all_
+Z: This sounds insane if you haven't personally experienced it and only know the socially-deriable narratives that people write about publicly
+[...]
+Z: ... I hope this is scientifically interesting rather than unforgiveably creepy to even talk about
+S: hm, this is interesting
+S: so, like, literal autogynephilia is a thing?
+Z: in me, Yes Obviously Yes
+Z: a lot of people who otherwise fit the clinical profile deny it, many others report having such fantasies but claim that it must be an effect rather than a cause of gender dysphoria, or claim that it's just like cis women appreciating their own bodies, or something like that
+S: (data point: my only effective sex fantasy is \"me as hot girl\", it's crass but so it goes)
+
+"I expect that to be a qualitatively distinct phenomenon, both on priors and, um, details that probably would be creepy to talk about",
+S; "ok",
+S: "so, like, you believe that autogynephilia is a real thing & in your case you don't have lots of desires to be seen as a girl, have a girl name, etc?" 
+"no, I _also_ have long history of non-sexual I-should-be-a-girl-or-at-least-non-masculine themed self-identity thoughts (I hope that my ponytail and clean-shavenness help visually distinguish me from guys who are proud of being guys; there was a years where I tried going by \"Z.M.\" because I wanted an ostensibly gender-neutral name but eventually gave that up because it didn't feel like a name and in order to get people to call you something different you have to yell at them constantly, which I wasn't assertive enough to do for something that didn't feel like a name; feeling happy about getting \"ma'am\"ed over the phone or being told that someone assumed I was gay; feeling happy about feminine pronouns)",
+ "... but that all developed in the years _after_ puberty",
+and this is not a coincidence, because nothing is ever a coincidence. (At least, in my current model)
+
+S: hm. so male puberty was a thing you did not like.
+Z: no, puberty was fine
+Z: Your previous message feels like you're instinctually rounding off my report to the standard narrative, whereas what I'm saying is that the standard was-always-a-girl-in-some-metaphysical-sense narrative (at least for me, I think for many others) is not truuuuuuuue
+S: "oh ok",
+"i'm just trying to figure out what the thing is",
+"\"men who love women and want to become what they love\"",
+"hm",
+"So, given that I have the experimental result that I couldn't even make a _nickname change_ work, transition is obviously completely out of the question, particularly because I would feel like a fraud because I think that (late-onset) trans women are not women (I know, I won't say that in public)",
+S: if that's your true belief about yourself then why isn't the answer \"don't\"?"
+Z: well, so I'm thinking in terms of \"experiment with drugs, but don't tell anyone\"  model"
+S: ....it will show.
+
+[...]
+
+Z" "the thing is, I don't think it's actually that uncommon! http://lesswrong.com/lw/xe/changing_emotions/ It's just that there's no script for it and no one wants to talk about it!",
+S" "ok, *very* weird",
+"yeah, I just don't have a built-in empathic handle for \"wants to be a woman.\""
+Z: "it even has a TVTrope! http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ManIFeelLikeAWoman",
+S" "ok, yeah. wow. it's really just easier for my brain to go \"ok, that's a girl\" than to understand why anyone would want boobs",
+Z: "... which is why the standard \"Oh, 'autogynephilia' is really just normal female  sexuality as expressed in someone who was unfortunately assigned-male-at-birth\" dodge seems like such a ludicrous rationalization to me",
+
+[...]
+
+S: "I could *work* with \"girl!Zach is a precious delicate flower.\" I am not sure wha t to do with \"Zach wants to try this body hack.\""
+
+I said, "if http://unremediatedgender.space/ ever gets popular, I expect to be smeared on Andrea James's website, too!" and that came true, except she made a bad guess about my True Name https://www.transgendermap.com/community/michael-mcclure/
+
+-----
+
+go-to link for "current year" trope: https://www.theonion.com/report-stating-current-year-still-leading-argument-for-1819576151
+
+Neuroscience notes! Read later for sure! https://archive.fo/2022.01.30-175531/https://twitter.com/SammySammyStagg/status/1487825532700049408
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/transgenderUK/comments/in23jm/i_am_worried_that_my_doctor_might_believe_in_agp/
+
+https://www.transgendertrend.com/childhood-social-transition/
+
+mtf misogyny https://archive.ph/Oi7Ls
+
+https://etiragram.tumblr.com/post/675612318640586752/radioactive-take-that-my-brain-generated
+
+> male-to-female transitioners are, on the whole, becoming women in a specifically masculine way
+https://unherd.com/2022/03/the-taboo-trans-question/
+
+https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10625997/amp/Hospital-said-rape-single-sex-ward-not-possible-revealing-one-patient-trans.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/DrWillPowers/comments/thcxsc/this_isnt_even_remotely_fair_and_everyone_knows/
+
+https://www.newsweek.com/why-im-proud-support-trans-athletes-like-lia-thomas-opinion-1689192
+> As a woman in sports, I can tell you that I know what the real threats to women's sports are: sexual abuse and harassment, unequal pay and resources and a lack of women in leadership. Transgender girls and women are nowhere on this list
+
+value instability in organizations on the timescale of a decade: https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-aclu-prior-to-covid-denounced
+
+Wil-"Lia"-m Thomas got her girl name using the same methodology as me (Za-"Carrie" Davis), at the suggestion of Mom (https://www.si.com/college/2022/03/03/lia-thomas-penn-swimmer-transgender-woman-daily-cover) like mine was suggested by Alicorn
+
+vindication
+> "Dath ilani kids get told to not get fascinated with the fact that, in principle, 'bounded-agents' with finite memories and finite thinking speeds, have any considerations about mapping that depend on what they want.  It doesn't mean that you get to draw in whatever you like on your map, because it's what you want.  It doesn't make reality be what you want."
+https://www.glowfic.com/posts/5785?page=4
+
+explicit AGP with surgery
+https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhawkcuDl_o
+
+https://www.vice.com/en/article/9aeevy/i-cross-dress-do-you-still-love-me-the-secret-lives-of-sissies
+
+https://4w.pub/no-men-here/
+
+In a discussion on criticism of EA by outsiders, Lorelei spontaneously (not prompted by me) mentioned the difference between when fellow trans women called themselves AGP, vs. actual Blanchardians. This is a conspiracy!! (The ingroup is allowed to notice things, but when other people notice, deny everything. Compare Michael Anton on "celebration parallax."
+
+Critics accuse trans swimming star Lia Thomas of having an unfair advantage. The data tells a different story
+https://archive.ph/TM6fi
+
+https://www.statsforgender.org/
+
+https://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/trans-tyranny-in-public-schools/
+
+https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/walking-the-transgender-movement-away-from-the-extremists/
+
+https://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1511772161156997131
+
+https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10716417/Two-women-female-New-Jersey-prison-PREGNANT-trans-inmates.html
+
+https://lacroicsz.substack.com/p/bite-model-behavior-control
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/77950/i-really-really-hate-the-lactation-thing
+
+> we are forever destined to sacrifice ourselves so life can continue
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/78939/a-few-thoughts-on-being-radfem-gc-while-being-uninterested-in-motherhood
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/asktransgender/comments/79i5q5/i_have_no_clue_what_to_do_daughter_cant_get_the/
+
+https://www.heterodorx.com/podcast/episode-53-autogynephilia-michael-bailey/
+
+Aella's cateogry exposition is very good: https://aella.substack.com/p/what-a-woman-is
+
+CovfefeAnon points out the microfoundations of "egregores": it solves the common knowledge problem! You can't compute I-know-that-he-knows-that-I-know, so you simply try to comply with the collective lowest-common-denominator.
+
+https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/jen-psaki-groomers-spokeswoman-transgender-children/
+
+https://cutdowntree.substack.com/p/purification-rites
+
+I read that the Snapchat gender filter works live (unlike FaceApp, which uses a static image), so I immediately downloaded and set up Snapchat ... but the "live" doesn't work for the gender lens (although it does for others). Do I need to buy a new phone? (My Galaxy S7 from 2016.) Is this the thing that spurs me to upgrade? https://blog.evjang.com/2019/05/fun-with-snapchats-gender-swapping.html
+
+Flatland analogy: https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/84783/agps-publicly-cross-dressing-and-going-in-women-s-spaces-are-a-violation-of-the
+
+https://fairplayforwomen.com/penis/
+"Demographic and temporal trends in transgender identities and gender confirming surgery" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6626314/
+
+https://magiruuvelvet.substack.com/p/the-pressure-to-transition-as-effeminate
+
+https://tullipr.substack.com/p/a-message-for-parents
+
+https://dentonyogacarter.substack.com/p/we-used-to-have-a-daughter
+
+Is there a third subtype? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/44-dr-susan-bradley-rapid-onset-gender-dysphoria-autism/id1560925652?i=1000560358255
+
+https://cutdowntree.substack.com/p/gender-identity-isnt-real
+> My friend's response was that it didn't matter
+[compare Ozy on "Lies to Cis People"]