-I could easily be wrong about the specific numbers, but I'm confident that this is the correct _methodology_. (Assuming that predictions don't causally [or otherwise](https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.05060) affect the things being predicted—but how likely is _that?_) My old anxieties about committing heresy have dissolved in the knowledge that it is, really, just a math problem.
+I could easily be wrong about the specific numbers. (My gut expects a _skilled_ "gaydar operator" to be more reliable than _d_ ≈ 1.1, which could still be true if the published statistics are [deflated by the measurement error](/2019/Sep/does-general-intelligence-deflate-standardized-effect-sizes-of-cognitive-sex-differences/) of less perceptive raters?) But I'm confident that this is the correct _methodology_. (Assuming that predictions don't causally [or otherwise](https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.05060) affect the things being predicted—but how likely is _that?_) My old anxieties about committing heresy have dissolved in the knowledge that it is, really, just a math problem.