2 _ fill minor psych episode §
3 _ fill Culture War RIP/defending against alt-right §
4 _ fill relying on Michael et al. too much §
5 _ fill Anna–Michael feud §
8 _ outline proton concession §
12 - more email harvesting
15 _ Emperor Norton ordered Hayes executed
16 _ address the "maybe it's good to be called names" point from "Hill" thread
17 _ maybe quote Michael's Nov 2018 texts?
18 _ the right way to explain how I'm respecting Yudkowsky's privacy
19 _ clarify sequence of outreach attempts
20 _ clarify existence of a shadow posse member
24 Urgent/needed for healing—
25 _ I Am Not Great With Secrets (aAL)
26 _ Reply to Scott Alexander on Autogenderphilia
27 _ Blanchard's Dangerous Idea and the Plight of the Lucid Crossdreamer
28 _ A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning
32 _ Trans Kids on the Margin, and Harms From Misleading Training Data
33 _ Book Review: Charles Murray's Facing Reality: Two Truths About Race in America
37 _ Xpression Camera Is the Uniquely Best Piece of Software in the World
38 _ Hrunkner Unnerby and the Shallowness of Progress
39 _ Book Review: Johnny the Walrus
40 _ my medianworld: https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1619639#reply-1619639
43 _ Link: "On Transitions, Freedom of Form, [...]"
45 _ Excerpt from _Redefining Realness_
46 _ "Reducing" Bias and Improving "Safety"
48 _ Unicode adopt-a-character?? (would it be wrong to adopt "♀"?)
49 _ https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WikzbCsFjpLTRQmXn/declustering-reclustering-and-filling-in-thingspace
50 _ Subspatial Distribution Overlap and Cancellable Stereotypes
51 _ "But I'm Not Quite Sure What That Means": Costs of Nonbinary Gender as a Social Technology
53 _ Elision _vs_. Choice
54 _ Karnofsky's presentism
55 _ motivation for positing meta-attraction
57 _ Joint Book Review: Kathleen Stock's Material Girls and Kathryn Paige Harden's The Genetic Lottery
61 _ Model-Free Happiness
64 _ "Assigned at Birth" Is a Schelling Point (If You Live in an Insane Dystopia Where the Concept of Sex Is Somehow Controversial)
65 _ Friendship Practices of the Secret-Sharing Plain Speech Valley Squirrels
66 _ Multi-Book Review: Various Sex-Ed Books for Children
67 _ "Why the Hell It Means So Much to Me"
70 More minor or Needs Development—
71 _ Correct Diagnosis as Common Interest: ideological detrans as a mirror of ideological trans: https://reclaimingtrans.wordpress.com/
72 _ "Your Politics Are Interesting" as Worst Compliment
78 _ Link: Halifax Pride: https://www.halifaxpride.com/news/2021/5/28/halifax-public-library-response
79 _ Link: You're Kidding, Right?
80 _ Link: Lease Bound comic
81 _ Link: Quillette on Sons Becoming Daughters
82 _ Link: Babylon Bee "It's a Good Life" parody https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20ALZgd6_Ek
86 _ agents with different learning algorithms would find it hard to agree on words?
88 * Objection: but then shouldn't we pick different words for the convergent and phylo clusters? Uncomfortable with wavering lines around "berry"
89 * Reply: story for how we end up with multiple senses attached to the same word
90 https://jsmp.dk/posts/2021-01-24-fruits/
92 Trading Political Favors Doesn't Build True Maps, But Correcting Errors Your Yourself Made, Does
94 (Rationalists don't exist)
95 > how to be a strong rationalist
96 https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/4thPHxgBCvteQjLv6/against-context-free-integrity
98 _ A Hill of Validity in Defense of Meaning / Casuistry Is Unbecoming: Replies to Eliezer Yudkowsky (I don't know how to do this)
100 _ E.Y. as case study on unconscious-lying and self-report ("their verbal theories contradict their own datapoints" https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10159408250519228?comment_id=10159411435619228&reply_comment_id=10159411567794228 )
103 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zersetzung and the GPT-3 neuron about Trump: imagine a short story, where you suddenly become more villainous in the eyes of the narrative, and it's because a greater fraction of your measure is in simulations written based on an unfavorable view of your legacy (you're only aware of this because the GPT-descendant is smart enough to try to correct for it)
105 philosophy-of-language replies,
108 _ Reddit: /r/philosophy, /r/TheMotte, /r/theschism, /r/SneerClub
109 _ tags: "The SF Bay Area", "Criticisms of the Rationalist Movement", "Postmortems & Retrospectives"
111 _ "Cis" is like "gentile"
112 _ The Sex/Gender Distinction Was a Mistake
113 _ Complicity (how do reasonable people cooperate with each other instead of dumb people in their own coalition)
114 _ reinterpretting all of Hannah Montana album lyrics as an AGP narrative
115 _ Stereotypes are weak probabilistic inferences (Agreeableness d~0.5), category-membership is strong inference, the same word/signal hits both, but stereotypes are (or should be) easy to cancel; shifting default meaning onto stereotypes in order to suit trans (while still having the word attach to something) is a bad trade
116 _ Taxometrics and the Fallacy of the Insufficiently Relevant, Insufficiently Multivariate Experiment
118 _ https://www.facebook.com/duncan.sabien/posts/3936528276381860 "Natural does not always mean good." — natural does not always mean good, but at our current tech level, that's actually a really good prior
119 _ Novemember 2020 Political Notes; Or, Sen. Kelly Loeffler Is Mostly Living in a Simulation Now
120 _ Phenotypic Identity and Memetic Capture
124 _ Yardstick abolition pessimism https://culturallyboundgender.wordpress.com/2018/11/13/gender-identity-isnt-a-box-its-a-yardstick/
125 _ reductionist rebuttal to "so you think lesbians aren't women"
126 _ Principles (transhumanism, and sanity)
127 _ reply to https://azdoine.tumblr.com/post/173995599942/a-reply-to-unremediatedgenderspace-on-reply-to http://archive.is/JSSNi
128 _ reply to https://deathisbadblog.com/the-real-transphobes-are-the-ones-we-made-along-the-way/
129 _ Beckett Mariner Is Trans https://www.reddit.com/r/DaystromInstitute/comments/in3g92/was_mariner_a_teenager_on_the_enterprised/
130 _ Cynical Theories review
131 _ Persongen/univariate fallacy/typical set
132 _ reply on psych prison https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4uvgb4/?context=3
133 _ Irreversible Damage review
134 _ Jessica/wiz AGP defense
135 _ Trans Kids on the Margin, and Harms From Misleading Training Data prior: https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2019/07/19/how-many-trans-folk-are-there-really/ https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2017/04/16/getting-lost-in-the-crowd/
136 _ "More Than We Can Say": High-Dimensional Social Science and the Conjunction of Small Effect Sizes
137 _ Comment on "Towards decolonising computational sciences" https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.14258
138 _ My Identity Has a Better Brier Score Than Your Identity
139 _ TV Review: "The Trouble With Edward"
140 _ Comment on "One Size Does Not Fit All: In Support of Psychotherapy for Gender Dysphoria" https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-020-01844-2 (tag: `review (paper)`)
141 _ the scapegoating dynamic
142 _ review of "What's the Big Secret?" (acknowledges gender-role conventions which are more salient when people are wearing clothes, but then tells the real answer)
143 _ reply to https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2020/11/16/hermeneutical-injustice-not-gaslighting/
144 _ Comment on "On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots" https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/k77sxz/d_timnit_gebru_and_google_megathread/gepcliq/ https://doxa.substack.com/p/googles-colosseum
146 - The Causality of Ethnic Differences in COVID-19 Outcomes Is an Open
147 _ follow to "Point Man": prosletyzing religion
148 _ Larmarckian Transmission of FtM?!
152 This is the same mechanism as "Unnatural Categories Are Optimized for Deception"!!
153 > journalism is usually trustworthy because trustworthiness is the carrier vehicle. It's occasionally corrupt, because corruption is the payload.
154 https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/lje3nu/statement_on_new_york_times_article/gnfrprx/?context=3
156 optimized to confuse and intimidate people trying to use language to reason about the concept of biological sex, even if your conscious verbal narrative never says 'and now I will confuse and intimidate people who want to use language to reason about the concept of biological sex'!"
158 I should email caption bliggers and ask if they know about AGP
159 https://www.imagefap.com/profile/rickbennett
160 https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/03/swap-clinic-testimonial-i-can-work-with.html
161 https://ericatgswapcaps.blogspot.com/2020/10/swap-clinic-win-win-win.html
163 reverse Wason selection task: https://twitter.com/ThetaGrunberg/status/1305296703088545792
165 (This needs to go into my "Motivations and Political Context")
166 Transitioning is easy if you project into the subspace spanned by "given name" and "preferred pronouns" and "frequency of wearing dresses." The problem is that it's not psychologically realistic to expect everyone else to just throw away all the other dimensions—people were using those dimensions!
168 (for Elision vs. Choice)
169 Speakers of my generation are more likely to say "person" when sex isn't relevant, whereas older works (pre-second wave feminism?) would actually say "man" (or "woman"—see how anachronistic it feels to put the female option second and in parentheses?), presumably not because human nature has changed that much, but because of shifting cultural priorities about when sex is "relevant." (Modern speakers similarly frown on mentioning race (https://agentultra.com/blog/the-black-man-stopped-me/) when it's not relevant.)
171 (My Identity Has a Better Brier Score)
172 I'm skeptical of "ace"—I think it's just an identity label that can be successfully marketed to otherwise-ordinary people in the bottom-quartile of libido, by an ideology that wants to sell people identity labels to get them to join the coalition of sexual minorities
173 You might reply: "But you identify as AGP, and attach emotional weight to that—isn't that just another identity label?"
174 but the thing about AGP is that, I actually have reason to believe it "fits" the territory of the underlying psychological variation
175 it's an expression of the theory that trans women (left-coded) and the subjects of that old Atlantic article about (right-coded) married crossdressers ("Conservative Men in Conservative Dresses") are the same thing
176 invariant under the cultural coding
179 _ Eugenics Is Actually Good, You Worthless Cowards
180 _ The One Where I Try to Be A Little More Explicit About What 'Autogynephilia' Actually Entails
181 _ No One Actually Wants to Change "Gender"
182 _ Ideology Is the General Case (working title)
183 _ Boundary Violations and Territory
184 _ three views on partisanship: "Hierarchy and Wings" "Bioleninism" "Democracy Cis and Trans"
185 _ Link: "AGPs! GROW A PAIR AND POLICE YOUR OWN COMMUNITY!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_qFxtJ7pxw Karen Davis
186 _ Gay + Trans = Straight
189 _ Walker correspondence
190 _ 30 Years of the Blank Slate (Cosmides-Tooby/Pinker/Murray)
191 _ "I Hope You're Happy, California"
192 _ Travis's Trilemma: Creepy, Crazy, or Protected-Class (working title)
193 _ Reply to Ozymandias on Lesbians and on Single-Sex Spaces
194 _ Answers on Great Divides: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/08/questions-for-great-divides.html
195 _ Film Review: Your Name
196 _ World of Masks https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1228093035042541569
197 _ glomerular filtration rate https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/gq50mo/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_may_25_2020/frvrhwg/
198 _ I Am Very Bad at Keeping Secrets and Am Therefore Very Reluctant to Offer Confidentiality Promises
200 _ starting to lose sympathy for my crazy past-self
202 "You're conflating sex and gender"—the problem is, Does anyone actually want to change "gender"?—they're bundled for a reason
205 _ You and What Army? Or, The Wisdom to Know the Difference
206 _ different ways of factoring a Bayes net of the same data make different predictions about interventions
207 _ COVID life-years (rather than deaths)
208 _ Signals, Deception, and the Precession of Simulacra (LW)
209 _ Contra Scott Alexander on Mental Illness; Or, Oh God, Please Don't (aAL/LW)
210 _ Comment on Wireheading /r/rational
211 _ Second Derivative (Paul Christiano on growth timelines)
212 _ Selective Reporting and Clustering
213 _ Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization—marginally neglected truths are more
214 _ Explicit Disjunction vs. Contradictory Arguments from a Bottom Line
215 _ How they Pin It Down: Equal Environments Assumption Edition https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cXzTpSiCrNGzeoRAz/conjunction-controversy-or-how-they-nail-it-down
216 _ Social Construction is an Embedded Agency Problem
218 it's important to have language for psychology because you can't point to pictures
220 Training Data—"get used" to the new definitions, in time
222 "You can follow people you disagree with!" makes sense if you think of
226 if pro-reality trans people are allied with more numerous anti-reality trans people, that incentivizes me to join an anti-trans coalition, when what I actually (should) want is to cherry-pick the pro-reality people
228 another thing keeping me from trans-IDing: trans is "marked"; choosing it would mean associating with the crazy. Normal Society (with men named Zack) has its own madnesses and crimes, but
231 Vocabulary as Capital Investment
233 _ Challenges of Mounting an Ideological Crusade
235 B.F. being smart-but-dense
237 how taxonomy/typology emerges from Bayesian networks
239 _ On Being Stereotyped Badly (working title)
243 https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/trvFowBfiKiYi7spb/open-thread-july-2019/comment/RYhKrKAxiQxY3FcHa
244 > I think sometimes I talk in a way that makes me seem more politically naïve than I actually am, because I feel as if the “naïve” attitude is in some way normative? (“You really think someone would do that? Just go on the internet and tell lies?”)
247 The Wisdom of Nature (I like the idea of transhumanism, but in practice, biology is just too complicated) https://nickbostrom.com/evolution.pdf
250 _ Product Review: FaceApp
252 _ The Strategy of "Apartment Patty" — the outrage strategy only works if you have a coalition to back you up. Deterrent: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/05/case-social-media-mobs/612202/ Another example: https://twitter.com/jaimetoons/status/1271300265170186240
254 Psychiatrist's response to me is kind of case-in-point https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/io1iih/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_07/g4valma/
256 you regress to your group's mean—but that depends on how you draw the category boundaries around group membership! This could be a good math post!! https://humanvarieties.org/2017/07/01/measurement-error-regression-to-the-mean-and-group-differences/
258 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agalmatophilia "An important fantasy for some individuals is being transformed into the preferred object (such as a statue) and experiencing an associated state of immobility or paralysis."
260 address accusation that I conflate "passing" and biosex
264 Positioning (don't want to prematurely alienate people you're trying to rescue)
266 conservatives complain about low-time preference ppl having too many kids—but from a evolutionary perspective, they're more evolutionarily fit
268 A Science Fiction Story Idea I'm Not Skilled Enough to Write
270 Names and Genders Are Not Relevantly Analogous
272 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agalmatophilia didn't make it into Lawrence's erotic target location paper, did it?
276 Anne Lawrence on AGP Teen Transition
277 Anne Lawrence on Unapologetic Autogynephilic Transsexualism
279 Butting Heads; Or, Selective Reporting and the Tragedy of Cause Prioritization
283 explain my blunder in https://twitter.com/jessi_cata/status/1188567229987577856
285 reply to https://surveyanon.wordpress.com/2019/10/27/the-mathematical-consequences-of-a-toy-model-of-gender-transition/
287 testimony on trans girl periods: http://www.onwednesdays.net/trans-girl-periods/
292 Reading Comprehension Is Rape Culture
294 Reply to David R. MacIver on Gendering
296 Trying to Be Explicit
298 Instrumental Categories, and War
300 (lit-search strategy: go through the del Guidice "Multivariate Misgivings" article and its citations; the Archer paper also mentioned this)
302 Commentary on "Blegg Mode"
304 Faster Than Science (Transgender Edition)
306 (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GEJzPwY8JedcNX2qz/blegg-mode)
308 karaoke, celebrity, cognitive load; I don't want people to do that for me
310 Option<String>?! https://web.archive.org/web/20160731010249/https://qntm.org/gay
313 _ "Lies to Cis People", a.k.a., "Lies"
314 _ I Mean, Yes, I Agree That Man Should Allocate Some More Categories, But
317 https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ZvJab25tDebB8FGE/you-have-about-five-words : well, that explains the TWAW mantra
319 The Parable of the Good Witch
321 First-Offender Models and the Unilateralist's Blessing
322 The Parable of the Faithful Man and the Cowardly Priest
324 Game Theory of "Apartment Patty"
326 Virtue Signaling Is Costly and Honest
327 (in response to Kosoy's objection)
329 Servants of the Egregore (write-up of egregore theory as told by "Wilhelm")
331 Kolmogorov's Iron Triangle; Or, the Not-Being-a-Worthless-Coward Option (epigraph quote: Raleigh's "The Lie")—(include analogy: the fear that atheism would lead to immortality given that ppl don't have to fear Hell, wouldn't have seemed obviously absurd at the time) — honesty, ability to think, and mainstream credibility. The Kolmogorov option sacrifices a lot of honesty in exchange for mainstream credibility. This might seem like a good trade until you consider that "honesty" and "ability to think" aren't independent (because people are bad at compartmentalization and we need to talk to each other to think together).
333 Research Question: Complicity
336 Where to Segment a Conversation When There's Stuff You Won't Touch, Without Violating the Virtue of Evenness
337 In Praise of Cartesianism (you need to _really_ understand "A Human's Guide to Words" before you can do high-grade good-faith social constructionism)
339 Sex Differences and Commonsense Priors (I have parsimony intuitions that make "AGP is caused by pollution" or "AGP is normal in cis women" or "hormone receptors distributions are the same" seem not worth considering)
341 In the Presence of Mimickry, Extension and Intension Simplicity Trade-Off
343 Objectivity as a Rhetorical Strategy: probability, words, morality
344 Focus on the Simple Case (accurate maps can have bad effects, but that's a weird second-order analysis)
347 A Human's Abridged Guide to Gender Words
351 in a world where we _actually had_ sex change technology, self-identity doctrine _wouldn't even occur to anyone_
353 Operationalization of Bad Faith: if people make reasoning errors that they wouldn't make with another topic having the same underlying structure
357 The Charity Convergence Trap
365 a big essay about Batesian mimickry
368 _ Codes of Convergence; Or, Smile More
370 _ "I Will Fight [...]": LGBT Patriotism and the Moral Fine-Tuning Objection
377 _ The View From Nowhere
381 _ reply to Ozy on https://thingofthings.wordpress.com/2017/08/03/rapid-onset-gender-dysphoria-is-bad-science/ (when marketing in Culture War thread, maybe hat tip https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/9cir3w/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_september_03/e5c1h2c/ )
382 _ Q An Infovist's Advisory; Or, Standing Athwart History ...
387 ✓ Interlude XVII (not all men)
389 can the comment on "Bit Players" actually fit on this blog (I didn't empathize with offense at fake physics, but I can take offense at maximum-entropy psychology): epigraph quote, "It's Only a Paper Moon"
391 Q As Well for a Sheep as a Lamb; Or, Charity, Objectivity, and ...
394 _ Stereotypes, Models, and Cognition: Beyond Maximum-Entropy Psychology
395 Imperfect Trait Measurements Regress to the Mean
396 Q The Gender Czar's Compromise
400 Q Book Review: Nevada
401 Product Review: Oculus Go
403 All You Had to Say https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/8xa97t/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_july_09_2018/e228vyj/
409 Q Time Travel Isn't Real; Or, Yes, the Only Real Trans Woman Is a Transitioned Trans Woman
410 _ The Neglect of Probability Fallacy; Or, You Do Not Have an Intersex Condition
411 Q Simple Models Plus Noise Are Better Than Pretending Not to Have a Model
412 Falsifiability and What We Expect Not to See
414 Q The Hand I Was Dealt
415 "diagonalize" http://gender-decoder.katmatfield.com/ by running the research paper it was based on through it
416 Q Reduce Gender Identities to Gender Goals
417 Threnody for the Transhumanism of My Youth
418 of course trans genders are less natural; that's the entire fucking point
419 People Really Don't Know Why They Do Things
420 Q I Want to See You Be Brave
421 Passing Is Legitimacy, Legitimacy Is Passing
422 All Men Benefit From Patriarchy
423 (the story about my name)
424 Review of Nerve Endings: The New Trans Erotic
425 on the poor literary quality of TG captions
426 "Another Me I Haven't Met" (SacAnime cosplay review)
427 go back to east bay tg club night?
428 Product Review: Glamour Boutique's Vee-String Bladder
429 Q This Is Worth a Fight
430 "Trans Women Are Women" is a Positive-Affect Instance of the Noncentral Fallacy
434 story of Gina and Vern selected for GNC
435 story about women engineers and male businesspeople
436 story about race of humans who have a "sneaky" camoflauge form and someone with their analogue of AGP tries to deliberately lower his status to get it
437 fix fic for that one episode of _The Orville_