-I don't think we're in equilibrium; I don't think everyone knows what's going on
+'I don't think we're in equilibrium; I don't think everyone knows what's going on
fragments—
Wil-"Lia"-m Thomas got her girl name using the same methodology as me (Za-"Carrie" Davis), at the suggestion of Mom (https://www.si.com/college/2022/03/03/lia-thomas-penn-swimmer-transgender-woman-daily-cover) like mine was suggested by Alicorn
-vindication
-> "Dath ilani kids get told to not get fascinated with the fact that, in principle, 'bounded-agents' with finite memories and finite thinking speeds, have any considerations about mapping that depend on what they want. It doesn't mean that you get to draw in whatever you like on your map, because it's what you want. It doesn't make reality be what you want."
-https://www.glowfic.com/posts/5785?page=4
-
explicit AGP with surgery
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhawkcuDl_o
> Lia Thomas as the anti-Rosa Parks. Least sympathetic case imaginable, single-handedly turned public opinion against the cause.
https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1538651344361246720
-Even the reviews of Nevada don't reveal the secret!!—okay, the New Yorker one sort of does ("erotic transvestite scenarios", "liking girls just in a totally impossible way")
-https://www.vulture.com/article/profile-imogen-binnie-nevada.html
-https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/06/27/the-invention-of-the-trans-novel-imogen-binnie-nevada
-
-> it doesn't feature nonbinary characters, and a similar novel written today would require them, not least for accuracy.
-(2013 was less than a decade ago!!)
-
preference cascade is starting ...
https://twitter.com/jessesingal/status/1538541182975877120
> It is commonly observed that trans people assigned female at birth have hobbies that are more popular among women, and trans people assigned male at birth have hobbies that are more popular among men. Trans women are, of course, equally valid women.
https://thingofthings.substack.com/p/lesbian-culture-for-trans-lesbians
+
+Distinguishing influence-based contagion from homophily-driven diffusion in dynamic networks
+https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0908800106
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/224699/always-at-target
+
+> I just had major, life-changing, irreversible breast surgery and I am already regretting it.
+https://archive.ph/BlALB
+
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cujpciCqNbawBihhQ/self-integrity-and-the-drowning-child
+
+https://www.thefp.com/p/an-existential-threat-to-doing-good
+
+https://www.thecut.com/article/hola-papi-feeling-phony-after-transitioning.html
+
+https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/rationalism-done-right
+https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/womanhood-is-not-like-parenthood
+https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/do-transgender-people-exist
+https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/if-you-dont-talk-about-genetic-enhancement
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/232321/it-hurts-to-know-that-my-family-sees-me-as-an-egg-waiting-to-crack
+
+2014-07-17
+(03:36:14 PM) zackmdavis@yahoo.com: my hope was to actually make progress on the monstrously self-indulgent story that I thought should be finished by election day https://gist.github.com/zackmdavis/3194ff3262028c54ce90
+
+https://gist.github.com/zackmdavis/cc535f594ff7d4d6c431
+
+woman who kept maiden name complains that even her family doesn't respect it, compared to deadnaming as offense
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/265651/my-name-and-the-pronoun-meltdowns
+
+James Baldwin's theory that Black policemen beat up on other blacks to secure their position in the white power structure seems to evoke the CovfefeAnon catchphrase :(
+https://archive.is/izSUn
+
+The ‘holy f***’ moment I knew something was wrong at the Tavistock: How Dr Anna Hutchinson, one of the whistleblowers, realised something was very wrong
+https://archive.ph/AKz2i
+
+> We have a debate every year over whether 50% predictions are meaningful in this paradigm; feel free to continue it.
+
+Someone reading this who trusted Alexander as a general-purpose intellectual authority ("the best of us", the "rationalists") might walk away with the idea that it's an open problem whether 50% binary predictions are meaningful—perhaps reasoning, if the immortal Scott Alexander doesn't know, then who am I to know?
+
+But it's not. On this website, [Rafael Harth explains why 50% isn't special](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAc4iuy4D3EiNBt9B/how-to-evaluate-50-predictions). I claim that this should actually be pretty obvious to competent quantitative thinkers, even if it's not obvious to the collective _SSC_/_ACX_ commentariat, and Alexander can't tell which of his commenters are competent quantitative thinkers.
+
+I don't particularly fault Scott for this: [by his own admission, he's not a math guy](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/31/the-parable-of-the-talents/). (And the vast majority of math people can't write as well or as fast as Scott. No one is the best at everything!) Rather, I'm saying that a culture that wants to _actually_ be right about everything would do better to _just_ focus on being right on the object level, without [wireheading on its own promises of being right about everything](http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/effective-altruism-is-self-recommending/).
+
+(Incidentally, Scott himself is actually very good about [not trying to claim more authority than is actually justified by his performance](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/07/04/some-clarifications-on-rationalist-blogging/). His fans should try to be more like him along this dimension!)
+
+I doubt that's the same phenomenon? The thing about reports like, _e.g._, ||I have a female body in all my sexual fantasies (as reported by Anomaly above)|| is that there's an obvious explanation for that ||if you're _actually female_—namely, that your fantasy life is based on real life along this dimension—and that explanation is not present for people who are _not_ female||?
+
+||I think the way to think about this question is to imagine that if you'd _never heard_ of this stupid ideologically-charged debate—would you need to _spontaneously invent_ the term AGP (or a synonym like _eonism_ as coined by Ellis in 1920 <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Havelock_Ellis#Eonism>) _in order to make sense of your experience_? If your _serious_ answer is Yes, that's _really interesting_ and I want to hear more. (Omega seems to be claiming this about herself, which is _really_ fascinating and my model _definitely_ loses some points for predicting that she shouldn't exist.) But I think _most_ females saying "yeah, sure, cis women are AGP too; it's, like, getting turned on by imagining other people being attracted to you, right? Seems normal" _after having been presented with the term in an ideologically-charged context_ are not really understanding the phenomenon in males that the term was originally coined to point to.||
+
+A much better analogy is ||the thing where you, Linta, and Swimmer report fantasizing about being male sometimes. This is plausibly auto-_andro_-philia, and like AGP, it's actually _pretty common_—_e.g._, Person _et al._ 1989 Table 3 (<http://unremediatedgender.space/papers/person_et_al-gender_differences_in_sexual_behaviors.pdf>) found 10 percent of female and 13 percent of male college students reporting yes to "Fantasizing that you are of opposite sex".||
+
+S. (she doesn't get it):
+> I do also enjoy fantasizing from the perspective of a fictional very attractive woman and imagining the inner details of a hypothetical other person's attraction to her; this is maybe a form of autogynephilia? (Though it is a bit hard for me to distinguish autogenyphilia from just getting turned on by imagining other people being attracted to you / imagining how other people see you)
+
+https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007/s10508-022-02359-8?sharing_token=jzX6q1NAJAY6-F_jSZ9wmfe4RwlQNchNByi7wbcMAY4WOO91AGBPQEW4W5GA-5HjFFBOW6MbqFHl6iM4xVsaD3DHcIMra_eBV8WQP5ACn0suHGXlnXqqAYAmkbrYzfglseOmxogZQqQ9SymDk_KPLQTlCvTiA2MPLdV_k8lldyE%3D
+
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-022-02359-8
+
+https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2022/06/27/no-women-are-not-autogynephilic/
+
+https://aella.substack.com/p/everyone-has-autogynephilia
+
+testimony of female AGP
+https://discord.com/channels/745684950417932323/803338278492307518/1047261753177813034
+
+"Isn't it messed up, how I'm just dying to be him"—evidence for Serano-ism
+
+Said on charity: https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/i2Dnu9n7T3ZCcQPxm/zetetic-explanation/comment/C2EW2aDQCqPyN6tfG
+
+I thought I was a liberal mother, then my daughter came out as trans
+https://archive.is/P7tAp
+
+Cool someday project—use GPT tech to summarize the whole blog: https://matthagy.substack.com/p/hierarchical-categorization-using
+
+replying to Gowers: https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1290407470452547584
+
+In the 1990 U.S. Census, _Davis_ was the 6th most common surname at 0.48%, and _Zachary_ the 181st most common male first name at 0.10%.
+
+the younger son also claiming broke suspension of disbelief
+https://lgbtcouragecoalition.substack.com/p/true-believer
+
+I agree that people who have prior reasons to be skeptical of survey evidence should be upfront about those reasons, rather than opportunistically objecting to particular questions when that's not their [true rejection](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TGux5Fhcd7GmTfNGC/is-that-your-true-rejection).
+
+https://unherd.com/thepost/calls-for-violence-in-the-trans-debate-only-come-from-one-side/
+
+Blanchard: "What I think is that people are born with predispositions or vulnerabilities to a kind of erotic miss-learning" quoted in https://since2010.substack.com/p/is-autogynephilia-innate
+
+https://www.natesilver.net/p/twitter-elon-and-the-indigo-blob
+
+https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/gender-criticism-versus-gender-abolition-on-three-recent-books-about-gender/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/15hhliu/the_chen_2023_paper_raises_serious_concerns_about/
+
+Alex Byrne podcast: https://www.buzzsprout.com/956725/13282940-gender-pronouns-and-linguistic-negotiation
+
+"Intersexual and Intrasexual Differences in Mate Selection Preferences Among Lesbian Women, Gay Men, and Bisexual Women and Men"
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-023-02665-9
+
+https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/13/queer-couple-co-parents-raise-child
+> In our experience, co-parenting seems to overwhelmingly appeal to cis women, trans men and non-binary people assigned female at birth. Without any exhaustive studies on this, I can only guess why.
+
+The Problem With Centering Blackness in Everyday Conversations
+https://archive.is/FzxYB
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/askAGP/comments/15wcdlg/am_i_the_only_woman_with_puretrue_autoandrophilia/?share_id=yOEg_HYP-oUW0MUhVGa5M
+
+Amazing comment—
+https://www.themotte.org/post/640/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/132334?context=8#context
+> The fascinating thing to me, is that despite being a quite gender conforming (and non-AGP) straight guy, when I read his description of his underlying desires it resonated. I could have written the exact same thing with one minor and meaning preserving word swap.
+(swapping "mine" for "me" in "wanting the soul behind those eyes to be me)
+> The most obvious way to fulfil this desire isn't "become a woman", but to own a woman [...] And if "owning" a woman is too unthinkable, you might come up with creative solutions.
+
+https://woodfromeden.substack.com/p/men-consume-relationships-women-produce
+
+
+https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/escalating-signals-cut-fertility
+> and more respect young adults who shape themselves alone, and then once they’ve achieved more distinctive personal styles and interests, search among vast numbers of potential partners for the few who most closely match what they have become
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/askAGP/comments/16g0s67/textbook_agp_as_an_afab/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/asktransgender/comments/16i82vh/is_it_ever_just_a_fetish/
+
+A Discord anecdote (https://discord.com/channels/401181628015050773/458329253595840522/1151404259460517918); I wasn't going to point out that this was gaslighting—
+> one of my parents' friends when I was a kid was a trans woman, though I didn't know that at the time (I knew she was a woman I just didn't know she was trans)
+> I remember being like nine years old and thinking something along the lines of 'hmm, [name] looks like a woman, and has a girl name, but she sounds like a guy?? what's up with that??' before ultimately concluding that Presumably my parents knew what gender she was and they were using a girl name and female pronouns for her, so therefore she was a girl
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/ftm/comments/16ko1jj/i_dont_get_along_with_guys/
+
+https://www.thecut.com/article/adult-friendships-vs-kids.html She's not ideological about it like I am.
+
+Rationalist women and men can be similar to each other and different from normies along the subspace of dimensions that rationalists and normies are different, while also being different from each other along the subspace of dimensions that females and males are different from each other, even while some dimensions are in both subspaces.
+
+https://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/23101806.issue-day-able-bodied-norwegian-identifies-disabled-woman/
+
+https://www.tiredtranssexual.com/
+
+https://deathisbad.substack.com/p/my-agp-dudes-it-does-get-better
+
+https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/09/alliance-defending-freedoms-legal-crusade
+
+> Michael says the thing we call "trans women" are basically males who have been lied to about how sex works and who don't, can't participate in rape culture. As a virgin from the 1987 birth cohort, this resonates. I said, "Comment 171 syndrome." Although ... I have been in bed with a woman a few times, and from there the proximate cause of still-being-a-virgin-afterward was erectile nonperformance due to obligate-AGP. This is likely related to Comment 171 syndrome. Blanchard wrote about "developmental competition" (the balance between allo- and auto- hardening during psycho-sexual development): my analogue in a world where I had known how and why to ethically pursue girls as a teenager would still be in the same taxon, but maybe wouldn't have gone so far down the obligate track.
+
+https://old.reddit.com/r/askAGP/comments/173rtqp/im_agp_and_i_transitioned_at_12_ama/
+
+https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/interactive/2023/trans-women-sorority-kappa-kappa-gamma-wyoming/
+https://archive.ph/6Y2wO
+
+> A trans woman told me, "I get to have all these talkative blowhard traits and no one will punish me for it cuz I'm a girl."
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kq8CZzcPKQtCzbGxg/quinn-s-shortform?commentId=ByARjQ72pNfvzRoLQ
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/honesttransgender/comments/17tetu5/im_trans_and_i_transitioned_because_seeing_myself/
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/Books/519555/even-trashy-old-novels-knew-the-truth-about-agp
+
+https://quillette.com/2023/12/14/misunderstanding-the-fertility-crisis/
+
+https://www.theknownheretic.com/p/sex-mimics-are-mimicspart-1
+
+https://benexdict.io/p/math-team
+
+https://thepostmillennial.com/trans-runner-shatters-womens-sprinting-record-only-one-year-after-earning-19th-place-in-male-competition
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/MtF/comments/18tggaq/i_get_aroused_when_i_have_gender_euphoria_is_that/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/trans/comments/18vijfo/asked_my_friend_out_she_couldnt_just_turn_me_down/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/asktransgender/comments/18ygct1/is_autogynephillia_real/
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/526364/tims-in-r-lesbiangamers-outnumber-females-2-1
+
+https://twitter.com/jmrphy/status/1746744905861345290
+> "Talking about your interests" with your wife is wayyy overhyped in the minds of single men seeking marriage. My wife is smart and I never talk to her about my interests. I talk to men about my interests (how it's been for thousands of years).
+
+https://twitter.com/LadyTetra777/status/1747381930507538451
+> Imma simplify all agp discourse. Ready?
+>
+> Me: AGP? Listen cis people, intellectualizing an experience won't give you that experience ⛔️
+>
+> Me, staring at a full mirror: Yep, AGP is real 😌
+
+https://twitter.com/extradeadjcb/status/1731503700353421315
+> My impression is that like religion, fecundity is a thing these people respect & see as extremely valuable if not essential - but it doesn't clear their personal cost-benefit calculus
+>
+> It's less that it has to be done in human ways, & more that it has to be done for human reasons
+
+Shannon Thrace appeals to the "principle of charity" and "steelmanning": https://twitter.com/ShannonThrace/status/1749609014982258933 So she is memetically downstream of us! It's not at all obvious!
+In a later Tweet (https://twitter.com/ShannonThrace/status/1756776030453272681), she cites Volokh Conspiracy (https://reason.com/volokh/2021/05/12/steelmanning-and-interpretive-charity/) who cites LW and Chana Messinger
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / blobdiff