-I don't think we're in equilibrium; I don't think everyone knows what's going on
+'I don't think we're in equilibrium; I don't think everyone knows what's going on
fragments—
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/12/radical-feminist-warned-refer-transgender-defendant-assault/
-"yeah in public we say 'cis women' but tran to tran we just say 'women,' we‘re not insane lol"
-no transsexual is like 'from a young age all i ever wanted was to be.. cis'
-https://twitter.com/theorygurl/status/1062451652836446208
-
https://www.reddit.com/r/GenderCritical/comments/bhulic/i_cant_do_this_any_more_i_need_to_divorce_my/
thanks for the marketing advice! I should _definitely_ take that into account if I ever decide to put more effort into "persuading people", which sounds like something that an aspiring instrumental rationalist would care about. Perhaps unfortunately, however, I'm an aspiring epistemic rationalist: all I can do is try to communicate what I actually think and feel using clear language (and standard rhetorical techniques like sarcasm, satire, &c. that people know how to interpret even if they wouldn't be clear if someone naïvely took the words literally). If other people aren't persuaded by this ... maybe they _shouldn't_ be! Maybe I can live with that!
-You _can't_ optimize your group's culture for not-talking-about-atheism without also optimizing against understanding Occam's razor; you _can't_ optimize for not questioning gender self-identity without also optimizing against understanding "A Human's Guide to Words."
-
I guess I can't argue with that, but I wish I knew what happened to my wallet
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/ray-blanchard-transgender-orthodoxy/
https://medium.com/@dave_45588/response-to-andrew-carter-re-j-k-rowling-pt-2-556d9b9113b1
-23 June 2020: people are STILL citing "Categories Were Made", TWICE when people on the subreddit asked "What is Slate Star Codex"?
-https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/hef5es/hi_what_was_slate_star_codex/fvqv9av/
-https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/hef5es/hi_what_was_slate_star_codex/fvr47v1/
-> But the blog wasn't always on that 'side', either. Scott wrote one of the best analyses/defenses of trans identity and nonbiological definition of gender that I've ever read, and which ultimately convinced me.
-Yet again someone citing "Categories Were Made" as influential: https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/he96rm/star_slate_codex_deleted_because_of_nyt_article/fvr7h7w/
-
-people are STILL citing this shit! (14 Nov): https://twitter.com/Baltimoron87/status/1327730282703835137
-
-Even the enemies respect that post!
-https://twitter.com/KirinDave/status/1275647936194654208
-
-And using it for defense.
-
-Two mentions in https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/hhy2yc/what_would_you_put_in_the_essential_ssc_collection/
-
-Another "Made for Man" cite: https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/hhtwxi/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_june_29_2020/fwwxycr/
-
-More damage control: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/hpohy5/what_are_some_of_scotts_posts_that_challenge_the/fxsu8p0/
-(Comment was deleted. Was I over the line in commenting at all, or just because of the "transparently political reasons" side-swipe? The fact that it got ~18 points suggests the readership was OK with it, even if the moderators weren't)
-
-People are still citing it! https://twitter.com/churrundo/status/1283578666425806851
-
-Another new cite: https://twitter.com/FollowSamir/status/1289168867831373825
-
-Another new cite: https://applieddivinitystudies.com/2020/09/05/rationality-winning/
-
-Another new cite: https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/kdxbyd/this_blog_is_incredible/gg04f8c/ "My personal favorites among these are [ ], [... Not Man for the Categories], 10, and 2 in that order."
-
-Another new cite: https://twitter.com/rbaron321/status/1361841879445364739
-
-31 December
-"SSC also helped me understand trans issues" https://www.reddit.com/r/SneerClub/comments/kng0q4/mixed_feelings_on_scott_alexander/
-
-Still citing it (22 Mar 21): https://twitter.com/Cererean/status/1374130529667268609
-
-Still citing it (2 May 21)!!: https://eukaryotewritesblog.com/2021/05/02/theres-no-such-thing-as-a-tree/
-
-Still citing it (20 October 21): https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/qagtqk/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_october_18/hhdiyd1/
-
-Still citing it (21 October 21): https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/qcrhc4/can_someone_provide_an_overview_ofintroduction_to/hhkf6kk/
-
-Still citing it (15 July 21) in a way that suggests it's ratsphere canon: https://twitter.com/NLRG_/status/1415754203293757445
-
-Still citing it (14 November 21): https://twitter.com/captain_mrs/status/1459846336845697028
-
-Still citing it (December 21 podcast): https://www.thebayesianconspiracy.com/2021/12/152-frame-control-with-aella/
+The correctness of this post has been disputed at length: [object-level reply](http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/), [meta-level reply (part 1)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries), [meta-level reply (part 2)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception), [supplementary material on dolphins/whales](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water)
-Still citing it (2 February 22): https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-do-i-suck/comment/4838964
+Object-level reply: http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/
+Meta-level reply (pt. 1): https://lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries
+Meta-level reply (pt. 2): https://lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception
+Supplementary material on dolphins/whales: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water
-The correctness of this post has been disputed at length: [object-level reply](http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/), [meta-level reply (part 1)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries), [meta-level reply (part 2)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception), [supplementary material on dolphins/whales](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water)
+[object-level reply](http://unremediatedgender.space/2018/Feb/the-categories-were-made-for-man-to-make-predictions/), [meta-level reply (pt. 1)](https://lesswrong.com/posts/esRZaPXSHgWzyB2NL/where-to-draw-the-boundaries), [meta-level reply (pt. 2)](https://lesswrong.com/posts/onwgTH6n8wxRSo2BJ/unnatural-categories-are-optimized-for-deception), [supplementary material on dolphins/whales](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vhp2sW6iBhNJwqcwP/blood-is-thicker-than-water)
darwin2500 "Women's leagues are for women, trans women are women. That's all the justification needed" https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/hym5xb/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_july_27_2020/fzvfres/
https://www.transgendertrend.com/childhood-social-transition/
mtf misogyny https://archive.ph/Oi7Ls
+
+https://etiragram.tumblr.com/post/675612318640586752/radioactive-take-that-my-brain-generated
+
+> male-to-female transitioners are, on the whole, becoming women in a specifically masculine way
+https://unherd.com/2022/03/the-taboo-trans-question/
+
+https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10625997/amp/Hospital-said-rape-single-sex-ward-not-possible-revealing-one-patient-trans.html
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/DrWillPowers/comments/thcxsc/this_isnt_even_remotely_fair_and_everyone_knows/
+
+https://www.newsweek.com/why-im-proud-support-trans-athletes-like-lia-thomas-opinion-1689192
+> As a woman in sports, I can tell you that I know what the real threats to women's sports are: sexual abuse and harassment, unequal pay and resources and a lack of women in leadership. Transgender girls and women are nowhere on this list
+
+value instability in organizations on the timescale of a decade: https://greenwald.substack.com/p/the-aclu-prior-to-covid-denounced
+
+Wil-"Lia"-m Thomas got her girl name using the same methodology as me (Za-"Carrie" Davis), at the suggestion of Mom (https://www.si.com/college/2022/03/03/lia-thomas-penn-swimmer-transgender-woman-daily-cover) like mine was suggested by Alicorn
+
+explicit AGP with surgery
+https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhawkcuDl_o
+
+https://www.vice.com/en/article/9aeevy/i-cross-dress-do-you-still-love-me-the-secret-lives-of-sissies
+
+https://4w.pub/no-men-here/
+
+Critics accuse trans swimming star Lia Thomas of having an unfair advantage. The data tells a different story
+https://archive.ph/TM6fi
+
+https://www.statsforgender.org/
+
+https://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/trans-tyranny-in-public-schools/
+
+https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/walking-the-transgender-movement-away-from-the-extremists/
+
+https://twitter.com/jonst0kes/status/1511772161156997131
+
+https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10716417/Two-women-female-New-Jersey-prison-PREGNANT-trans-inmates.html
+
+https://lacroicsz.substack.com/p/bite-model-behavior-control
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/77950/i-really-really-hate-the-lactation-thing
+
+> we are forever destined to sacrifice ourselves so life can continue
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/78939/a-few-thoughts-on-being-radfem-gc-while-being-uninterested-in-motherhood
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/asktransgender/comments/79i5q5/i_have_no_clue_what_to_do_daughter_cant_get_the/
+
+https://www.heterodorx.com/podcast/episode-53-autogynephilia-michael-bailey/
+
+Aella's cateogry exposition is very good: https://aella.substack.com/p/what-a-woman-is
+
+CovfefeAnon points out the microfoundations of "egregores": it solves the common knowledge problem! You can't compute I-know-that-he-knows-that-I-know, so you simply try to comply with the collective lowest-common-denominator.
+
+https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/jen-psaki-groomers-spokeswoman-transgender-children/
+
+https://cutdowntree.substack.com/p/purification-rites
+
+I read that the Snapchat gender filter works live (unlike FaceApp, which uses a static image), so I immediately downloaded and set up Snapchat ... but the "live" doesn't work for the gender lens (although it does for others). Do I need to buy a new phone? (My Galaxy S7 from 2016.) Is this the thing that spurs me to upgrade? https://blog.evjang.com/2019/05/fun-with-snapchats-gender-swapping.html
+
+Flatland analogy: https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/84783/agps-publicly-cross-dressing-and-going-in-women-s-spaces-are-a-violation-of-the
+
+https://fairplayforwomen.com/penis/
+"Demographic and temporal trends in transgender identities and gender confirming surgery" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6626314/
+
+https://magiruuvelvet.substack.com/p/the-pressure-to-transition-as-effeminate
+
+https://tullipr.substack.com/p/a-message-for-parents
+
+https://dentonyogacarter.substack.com/p/we-used-to-have-a-daughter
+
+Is there a third subtype? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/44-dr-susan-bradley-rapid-onset-gender-dysphoria-autism/id1560925652?i=1000560358255
+
+https://cutdowntree.substack.com/p/gender-identity-isnt-real
+> My friend's response was that it didn't matter
+[compare Ozy on "Lies to Cis People"]
+
+GPT just finished a completion with `_Crossposted to [crossdreamers.com](https://crossdreamers.com/2022/06/05/ideological-evolution-from-gender-stereotypes-to-gaydar/)._`! It knows about Jack Molay (but probably doesn't know about me)!
+
+"The majority of male transvestites feel attracted to women though as a rule they prefer the mannish type of woman who is more masculine in her mental than in her physical make-up." (Hirschfeld 1952, p.206) !
+
+When another transfem saw two women being close, intimate friends, they “immediately wanted to be one of the two”, and after they learned about lesbianism they would get envious too (Hirschfeld, p.71).
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/MtF/comments/utgb1d/how_to_deal_with_extreme_jealousy_towards_cis/
+
+https://pitt.substack.com/p/30k-a-year-and-my-kid-cant-tell-the
+
+I hope I may be forgiven if I do detect hints in your writing of seeing your type as better on account of not being appropriative delusional perverts. Can't say I blame you!
+
+It looks to me like the emergent strategy people are implicitly using is, "Systematically lie in order to artificially increase the rate at which AGPs transition until it reaches the critical mass at which it becomes 'normal', thus making it politically impossible to turn back the clock."
+
+It will probably work. Maybe it's even the right thing to do, in some coldly Machiavellian utilitarian calculus. But I'm sick of being lied to.
+
+I [want credit](https://arbital.com/p/6yv/) for calling it.
+> Correct credit-tracking is very important if we want our community to generate new good ideas.
+
+> It's not only a highly unethical journalism, but also a banal and boring one. Why should anyone care if someone is transgender or not? In most cases it's completely irrelevant. In particular, why should anyone be surprised if a woman in AI and EA is transgender. It's the default.
+https://twitter.com/OttoMller12/status/1533722820232060930
+
+Israelis have things to worry about from their neighbors; I would hope that American Jews are too busy counting our money from running the entertainment and finance industries to get caught up in victimhood politics
+
+when Yudkowsky talks about teenage male edgelord tendencies, people complain about him being too gendery, but it seems like they're complaining about him _naming_ the behavior as male; pure simulacra
+
+Surrender on sports: https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1536691117265080321
+
+https://twitter.com/mherreshoff/status/1537427374676922369
+> Maybe there's a bunch of ways to end up with the way-more-interested-in-things-than-people trait. I imagine being handed an ill-fitting/dysphoric gender role would push one towards interested-in-things pretty hard.
+
+A: so my household talks about planecrash a whole fuck of a lot and we have noted that eliezer doesn't act sexist to live human beings, this is exclusively a thing in his writing
+Z: I think our culture's concept of "sexism" is conflating things that are different in the territory; the So Different evopsych-sight in the writing is, in fact, compatible with not being an Evil Misogynist and treating women like people
+A: I think they would by default be in tension, so if they're not in his case, I think something else might be going on
+Z: I don't think I told you about how I had a drink with my NRx Twitter mutual when a visited New York, who is totally an Evil Misogynist
+I would guess that me and Yudkowsky and Evil Reactionary Twitter Friend actually have broadly similar beliefs/predictions about human nature; the difference between us and Evil Reactionary Twitter Friend is mostly ideological, cultural
+and basically the thing I'm trying to do with my blog is that I like our culture and I want to fight for its (renormalized) values, but it's kind of pathetic that no one can jump up a meta level and see it _as_ a culture, _as_ an ideology
+as _contingent_
+as contingent but in a way that it's OK to reason about out loud, rather than being wordlessly afraid that talking will break everything
+
+> Lia Thomas as the anti-Rosa Parks. Least sympathetic case imaginable, single-handedly turned public opinion against the cause.
+https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1538651344361246720
+
+preference cascade is starting ...
+https://twitter.com/jessesingal/status/1538541182975877120
+
+[quantifying the two-type effect:
+GD occupations in study 2
+gay men are at .48 (.14); straight women at .36 (.13); straight men at .68 (.12)
+that's d=–1.61 between gay and straight men
+a gay man only needs to be 1 standard deviation (.48-.36 = 0.12) more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight women
+whereas a straight man needs to be (.68-.36 = 0.32) 0.32/0.12=2.67 more feminine than average to be as feminine as a straight woman—that's rarer, but not impossible
+
+In percentile terms, 1-norm.cdf(1) = 0.15 of gay men are as feminine as a woman
+whereas 1-norm.cdf(2.67) = 0.003 of straight men are
+that's a likelihood ratio of 50 ... but the prior is not that far from 50:1 in the other direction! They cancel out!!]
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/115874/shirley-conran-s-lace-body-slammed-agp-back-in-1982
+
+https://pitt.substack.com/p/headline-when-a-quarter-of-the-class
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/vlopk0/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_june_27_2022/ieo2jzm/
+> Obsessive, pedantic, Talmudic talk of edge cases, cluster definitions, Bayesian filters or whatever else grey tribe weirdos might get fascinated with only gets in the way of an honest negotiation of a value handshake between majority groups. Not that I believe it would've taken place in a world with zero rationalists, but it's still annoying.
+
+> Me in 2008: I'm definitely not trans, just a regular guy who always thinks about being a woman and hates clothes shopping and hates hanging out with the guys and thinks about getting testicular cancer and loves gender-swap movies and TV shows and you know, normal guy things
+https://twitter.com/lauroralei/status/1548861652636139520
+
+24% black judges is pretty extreme affirmative action (if you know the IQ stats): https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1549237889128509440
+
+They don't think this is a pornography app, but it is
+https://samsunglabs.github.io/MegaPortraits/
+
+https://drmaciver.substack.com/p/a-fractal-of-lies
+
+The woman at a party who says that she's also somewhat gender-dysphoric and always uses gender-neutral screennames specifically because she likes being treated as an unmarked person rather than The Girl, thereby becomes way more interesting to me as A Girl. (This is the thing about my preferences that I prefer not to explain clearly because I'm secretly terrified that it's implicitly misogynistic, which is why you were so surprised when you met Linda and noticed her distinct lack of resemblance to Aphrodite.)
+
+software for generating fake people recommended by Curt Skeleton video—
+Convert Skeleton
+Deepmotion
+Deepfake labs
+Respeecher
+(actually, there were further reports that this was a hoax)
+
+https://robkhenderson.substack.com/p/let-a-hundred-flowers-bloom
+
+https://www.menshealth.com/sex-women/a41018711/sexplain-it-vagina-fetish-sex-bisexual/
+
+(stability_unsafe-0gZ54e7b) zmd@ReflectiveCoherence:~/Code/Misc/stability_unsafe$ python stability_sdk/src/stability_sdk/client.py "25-year-old Nana Visitor in the shower in 1996, full body shot, 4K digital photo" -n 4
+
+https://afterellen.com/tasmania-rules-against-women-only-spaces/
+
+"Separating Sports by Sex Doesn't Make Sense"
+https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2022/09/sports-gender-sex-segregation-coed/671460/
+https://archive.ph/OViyg
+
+new Bailey and Hsu ETII paper (August 2022): https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-84273-4_20
+
+(no context?)
+> Women do not find womanhood erotic.
+https://twitter.com/DrDebraSoh/status/1571523669809053696
+
+On Fri, May 3, 2019, 6:55 PM Zack M. Davis <main@zackmdavis.net> wrote:
+
+ Another Less Wrong post idea that can be jotted down but shouldn't actually be developed during Math and Wellness Month (so, don't comment, but feel free to say "Good idea, looking forward to it" or "Dumb idea, stop sending me this volume of obnoxious mail"): "Pick Two; Or, Kolmogorov's Iron Triangle": analogous to "good, fast, cheap: pick two", we face a tradeoff between honesty, ability to think, and mainstream credibility. The Kolmogorov option sacrifices a lot of honesty in exchange for mainstream credibility. This might seem like a good trade until you consider that "honesty" and "ability to think" aren't independent (because people are bad at compartmentalization and we need to talk to each other to think together).
+
+Michael's comment—
+> Not excited by this approach.
+> Idea of mainstream credibility us very specifically an idea about credibility as a political identity, and thus against credibility as a proposition. Flat Earth movement, as non-credible as it is, is more politically promising then "round Earth movement"
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/Cancelled/176585/october-11-2022-actual-female-wikipedia-admin-goes-out-with-a-bang
+
+https://www.takimag.com/article/invasion-of-the-nasty-nerds/
+
+https://tehswitcherscaptions.blogspot.com/2019/07/impending-shift.html links to https://www.previewsworld.com/Catalog/MAY190456 as "a mainstream comic that had
+used the idea of basically an 'impending Great Shift' as a villain's plot for making a more egalitarian society." I totally had the same idea independently!!
+
+I'm such a terrible writer: "propagated the implications of the observation that" → "internalized"
+
+https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/a-psychological-theory-of-the-culture
+> From their perspective, the "expert consensus" and "peer-reviewed studies" on the efficacy of covid-19 vaccines look no different from those that tell you men can get pregnant. Since you know men can’t get pregnant, why trust the vaccine?
+
+I don't think it makes sense to group together male puberty and administered testosterone HRT as "testosterone puberty"
+
+https://bprice.substack.com/p/trans-is-something-we-made-up
+
+-----
+
+Not going to engage because I'm supposed to be writing today, but this kind of thing in Alicorner is what I mean by _de facto_ biological sex denialism—
+
+https://discord.com/channels/401181628015050773/538097598008131594/1037807776065388616
+> I think the thing that confuses me about that theory is how some of the instances I've encountered seem to be people who feel attraction to ~masculine presenting people ever?
+
+... it's not surprising that attraction to masculine presenting women (females, a.f.a.b.s) would fail to generalize to masculine-presenting men (males, a.m.a.b.s)? Biological sex actually exists?
+
+----
+
+don't like it when science-fictional or fantasy characters are held up as trans icons (like Jadzia Dax, or when Janet in _The Good Place_ says "Not a girl") when the character has an in-universe rationale for holding beyond-the-binary status (if Trill symbionts have sexual dimorphism, it doesn't need to match their host; Janet is a heavenly robot-analogue), and real-life trans people and enbies do not
+
+https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/07/16/racist-robots-ai/
+> The scientists did not have blocks depicting nonbinary people due to the limitations of the facial image data set they used, which they acknowledged was a shortcoming in the study.
+
+http://theautogynephiliac.blogspot.com
+
+https://sugarandslugs.wordpress.com/
+
+https://firsttoilthenthegrave.substack.com/p/medium-sized-breasts-and-gaussian
+
+https://janhove.github.io/design/2015/03/16/standardised-es-revisited
+
+Is "homoncular flexibility" also responsible for AGP??
+https://stanfordvr.com/mm/2016/11/won-etsbs-homuncular-flexibility.pdf
+
+https://dataoverdogma.substack.com/p/the-feminist-to-nonbinary-pipeline
+
+Ozy suggested this as a data source on sexual violence—
+https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/datasources/nisvs/summaryreports.html
+
+> It is commonly observed that trans people assigned female at birth have hobbies that are more popular among women, and trans people assigned male at birth have hobbies that are more popular among men. Trans women are, of course, equally valid women.
+https://thingofthings.substack.com/p/lesbian-culture-for-trans-lesbians
+
+Distinguishing influence-based contagion from homophily-driven diffusion in dynamic networks
+https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0908800106
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/224699/always-at-target
+
+> I just had major, life-changing, irreversible breast surgery and I am already regretting it.
+https://archive.ph/BlALB
+
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cujpciCqNbawBihhQ/self-integrity-and-the-drowning-child
+
+https://www.thefp.com/p/an-existential-threat-to-doing-good
+
+https://www.thecut.com/article/hola-papi-feeling-phony-after-transitioning.html
+
+https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/rationalism-done-right
+https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/womanhood-is-not-like-parenthood
+https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/do-transgender-people-exist
+https://parrhesia.substack.com/p/if-you-dont-talk-about-genetic-enhancement
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/232321/it-hurts-to-know-that-my-family-sees-me-as-an-egg-waiting-to-crack
+
+2014-07-17
+(03:36:14 PM) zackmdavis@yahoo.com: my hope was to actually make progress on the monstrously self-indulgent story that I thought should be finished by election day https://gist.github.com/zackmdavis/3194ff3262028c54ce90
+
+https://gist.github.com/zackmdavis/cc535f594ff7d4d6c431
+
+woman who kept maiden name complains that even her family doesn't respect it, compared to deadnaming as offense
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/265651/my-name-and-the-pronoun-meltdowns
+
+James Baldwin's theory that Black policemen beat up on other blacks to secure their position in the white power structure seems to evoke the CovfefeAnon catchphrase :(
+https://archive.is/izSUn
+
+The ‘holy f***’ moment I knew something was wrong at the Tavistock: How Dr Anna Hutchinson, one of the whistleblowers, realised something was very wrong
+https://archive.ph/AKz2i
+
+> We have a debate every year over whether 50% predictions are meaningful in this paradigm; feel free to continue it.
+
+Someone reading this who trusted Alexander as a general-purpose intellectual authority ("the best of us", the "rationalists") might walk away with the idea that it's an open problem whether 50% binary predictions are meaningful—perhaps reasoning, if the immortal Scott Alexander doesn't know, then who am I to know?
+
+But it's not. On this website, [Rafael Harth explains why 50% isn't special](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAc4iuy4D3EiNBt9B/how-to-evaluate-50-predictions). I claim that this should actually be pretty obvious to competent quantitative thinkers, even if it's not obvious to the collective _SSC_/_ACX_ commentariat, and Alexander can't tell which of his commenters are competent quantitative thinkers.
+
+I don't particularly fault Scott for this: [by his own admission, he's not a math guy](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/31/the-parable-of-the-talents/). (And the vast majority of math people can't write as well or as fast as Scott. No one is the best at everything!) Rather, I'm saying that a culture that wants to _actually_ be right about everything would do better to _just_ focus on being right on the object level, without [wireheading on its own promises of being right about everything](http://benjaminrosshoffman.com/effective-altruism-is-self-recommending/).
+
+(Incidentally, Scott himself is actually very good about [not trying to claim more authority than is actually justified by his performance](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/07/04/some-clarifications-on-rationalist-blogging/). His fans should try to be more like him along this dimension!)
+
+I doubt that's the same phenomenon? The thing about reports like, _e.g._, ||I have a female body in all my sexual fantasies (as reported by Anomaly above)|| is that there's an obvious explanation for that ||if you're _actually female_—namely, that your fantasy life is based on real life along this dimension—and that explanation is not present for people who are _not_ female||?
+
+||I think the way to think about this question is to imagine that if you'd _never heard_ of this stupid ideologically-charged debate—would you need to _spontaneously invent_ the term AGP (or a synonym like _eonism_ as coined by Ellis in 1920 <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Havelock_Ellis#Eonism>) _in order to make sense of your experience_? If your _serious_ answer is Yes, that's _really interesting_ and I want to hear more. (Omega seems to be claiming this about herself, which is _really_ fascinating and my model _definitely_ loses some points for predicting that she shouldn't exist.) But I think _most_ females saying "yeah, sure, cis women are AGP too; it's, like, getting turned on by imagining other people being attracted to you, right? Seems normal" _after having been presented with the term in an ideologically-charged context_ are not really understanding the phenomenon in males that the term was originally coined to point to.||
+
+A much better analogy is ||the thing where you, Linta, and Swimmer report fantasizing about being male sometimes. This is plausibly auto-_andro_-philia, and like AGP, it's actually _pretty common_—_e.g._, Person _et al._ 1989 Table 3 (<http://unremediatedgender.space/papers/person_et_al-gender_differences_in_sexual_behaviors.pdf>) found 10 percent of female and 13 percent of male college students reporting yes to "Fantasizing that you are of opposite sex".||
+
+S. (she doesn't get it):
+> I do also enjoy fantasizing from the perspective of a fictional very attractive woman and imagining the inner details of a hypothetical other person's attraction to her; this is maybe a form of autogynephilia? (Though it is a bit hard for me to distinguish autogenyphilia from just getting turned on by imagining other people being attracted to you / imagining how other people see you)
+
+https://link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007/s10508-022-02359-8?sharing_token=jzX6q1NAJAY6-F_jSZ9wmfe4RwlQNchNByi7wbcMAY4WOO91AGBPQEW4W5GA-5HjFFBOW6MbqFHl6iM4xVsaD3DHcIMra_eBV8WQP5ACn0suHGXlnXqqAYAmkbrYzfglseOmxogZQqQ9SymDk_KPLQTlCvTiA2MPLdV_k8lldyE%3D
+
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-022-02359-8
+
+https://sillyolme.wordpress.com/2022/06/27/no-women-are-not-autogynephilic/
+
+https://aella.substack.com/p/everyone-has-autogynephilia
+
+testimony of female AGP
+https://discord.com/channels/745684950417932323/803338278492307518/1047261753177813034
+
+"Isn't it messed up, how I'm just dying to be him"—evidence for Serano-ism
+
+Said on charity: https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/i2Dnu9n7T3ZCcQPxm/zetetic-explanation/comment/C2EW2aDQCqPyN6tfG
+
+I thought I was a liberal mother, then my daughter came out as trans
+https://archive.is/P7tAp
+
+Cool someday project—use GPT tech to summarize the whole blog: https://matthagy.substack.com/p/hierarchical-categorization-using
+
+replying to Gowers: https://twitter.com/zackmdavis/status/1290407470452547584
+
+In the 1990 U.S. Census, _Davis_ was the 6th most common surname at 0.48%, and _Zachary_ the 181st most common male first name at 0.10%.
+
+the younger son also claiming broke suspension of disbelief
+https://lgbtcouragecoalition.substack.com/p/true-believer
+
+I agree that people who have prior reasons to be skeptical of survey evidence should be upfront about those reasons, rather than opportunistically objecting to particular questions when that's not their [true rejection](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TGux5Fhcd7GmTfNGC/is-that-your-true-rejection).
+
+https://unherd.com/thepost/calls-for-violence-in-the-trans-debate-only-come-from-one-side/
+
+Blanchard: "What I think is that people are born with predispositions or vulnerabilities to a kind of erotic miss-learning" quoted in https://since2010.substack.com/p/is-autogynephilia-innate
+
+https://www.natesilver.net/p/twitter-elon-and-the-indigo-blob
+
+https://lareviewofbooks.org/article/gender-criticism-versus-gender-abolition-on-three-recent-books-about-gender/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/15hhliu/the_chen_2023_paper_raises_serious_concerns_about/
+
+Alex Byrne podcast: https://www.buzzsprout.com/956725/13282940-gender-pronouns-and-linguistic-negotiation
+
+"Intersexual and Intrasexual Differences in Mate Selection Preferences Among Lesbian Women, Gay Men, and Bisexual Women and Men"
+https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-023-02665-9
+
+https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/13/queer-couple-co-parents-raise-child
+> In our experience, co-parenting seems to overwhelmingly appeal to cis women, trans men and non-binary people assigned female at birth. Without any exhaustive studies on this, I can only guess why.
+
+The Problem With Centering Blackness in Everyday Conversations
+https://archive.is/FzxYB
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/askAGP/comments/15wcdlg/am_i_the_only_woman_with_puretrue_autoandrophilia/?share_id=yOEg_HYP-oUW0MUhVGa5M
+
+Amazing comment—
+https://www.themotte.org/post/640/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/132334?context=8#context
+> The fascinating thing to me, is that despite being a quite gender conforming (and non-AGP) straight guy, when I read his description of his underlying desires it resonated. I could have written the exact same thing with one minor and meaning preserving word swap.
+(swapping "mine" for "me" in "wanting the soul behind those eyes to be me)
+> The most obvious way to fulfil this desire isn't "become a woman", but to own a woman [...] And if "owning" a woman is too unthinkable, you might come up with creative solutions.
+
+https://woodfromeden.substack.com/p/men-consume-relationships-women-produce
+
+
+https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/escalating-signals-cut-fertility
+> and more respect young adults who shape themselves alone, and then once they’ve achieved more distinctive personal styles and interests, search among vast numbers of potential partners for the few who most closely match what they have become
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/askAGP/comments/16g0s67/textbook_agp_as_an_afab/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/asktransgender/comments/16i82vh/is_it_ever_just_a_fetish/
+
+A Discord anecdote (https://discord.com/channels/401181628015050773/458329253595840522/1151404259460517918); I wasn't going to point out that this was gaslighting—
+> one of my parents' friends when I was a kid was a trans woman, though I didn't know that at the time (I knew she was a woman I just didn't know she was trans)
+> I remember being like nine years old and thinking something along the lines of 'hmm, [name] looks like a woman, and has a girl name, but she sounds like a guy?? what's up with that??' before ultimately concluding that Presumably my parents knew what gender she was and they were using a girl name and female pronouns for her, so therefore she was a girl
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/ftm/comments/16ko1jj/i_dont_get_along_with_guys/
+
+https://www.thecut.com/article/adult-friendships-vs-kids.html She's not ideological about it like I am.
+
+Rationalist women and men can be similar to each other and different from normies along the subspace of dimensions that rationalists and normies are different, while also being different from each other along the subspace of dimensions that females and males are different from each other, even while some dimensions are in both subspaces.
+
+https://www.heraldscotland.com/opinion/23101806.issue-day-able-bodied-norwegian-identifies-disabled-woman/
+
+https://www.tiredtranssexual.com/
+
+https://deathisbad.substack.com/p/my-agp-dudes-it-does-get-better
+
+https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/09/alliance-defending-freedoms-legal-crusade
+
+> Michael says the thing we call "trans women" are basically males who have been lied to about how sex works and who don't, can't participate in rape culture. As a virgin from the 1987 birth cohort, this resonates. I said, "Comment 171 syndrome." Although ... I have been in bed with a woman a few times, and from there the proximate cause of still-being-a-virgin-afterward was erectile nonperformance due to obligate-AGP. This is likely related to Comment 171 syndrome. Blanchard wrote about "developmental competition" (the balance between allo- and auto- hardening during psycho-sexual development): my analogue in a world where I had known how and why to ethically pursue girls as a teenager would still be in the same taxon, but maybe wouldn't have gone so far down the obligate track.
+
+https://old.reddit.com/r/askAGP/comments/173rtqp/im_agp_and_i_transitioned_at_12_ama/
+
+https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/interactive/2023/trans-women-sorority-kappa-kappa-gamma-wyoming/
+https://archive.ph/6Y2wO
+
+> A trans woman told me, "I get to have all these talkative blowhard traits and no one will punish me for it cuz I'm a girl."
+https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kq8CZzcPKQtCzbGxg/quinn-s-shortform?commentId=ByARjQ72pNfvzRoLQ
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/honesttransgender/comments/17tetu5/im_trans_and_i_transitioned_because_seeing_myself/
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/Books/519555/even-trashy-old-novels-knew-the-truth-about-agp
+
+https://quillette.com/2023/12/14/misunderstanding-the-fertility-crisis/
+
+https://www.theknownheretic.com/p/sex-mimics-are-mimicspart-1
+
+https://benexdict.io/p/math-team
+
+https://thepostmillennial.com/trans-runner-shatters-womens-sprinting-record-only-one-year-after-earning-19th-place-in-male-competition
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/MtF/comments/18tggaq/i_get_aroused_when_i_have_gender_euphoria_is_that/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/trans/comments/18vijfo/asked_my_friend_out_she_couldnt_just_turn_me_down/
+
+https://www.reddit.com/r/asktransgender/comments/18ygct1/is_autogynephillia_real/
+
+https://ovarit.com/o/GenderCritical/526364/tims-in-r-lesbiangamers-outnumber-females-2-1
+
+https://twitter.com/jmrphy/status/1746744905861345290
+> "Talking about your interests" with your wife is wayyy overhyped in the minds of single men seeking marriage. My wife is smart and I never talk to her about my interests. I talk to men about my interests (how it's been for thousands of years).
+
+https://twitter.com/LadyTetra777/status/1747381930507538451
+> Imma simplify all agp discourse. Ready?
+>
+> Me: AGP? Listen cis people, intellectualizing an experience won't give you that experience ⛔️
+>
+> Me, staring at a full mirror: Yep, AGP is real 😌
+
+https://twitter.com/extradeadjcb/status/1731503700353421315
+> My impression is that like religion, fecundity is a thing these people respect & see as extremely valuable if not essential - but it doesn't clear their personal cost-benefit calculus
+>
+> It's less that it has to be done in human ways, & more that it has to be done for human reasons
+
+Shannon Thrace appeals to the "principle of charity" and "steelmanning": https://twitter.com/ShannonThrace/status/1749609014982258933 So she is memetically downstream of us! It's not at all obvious!
+In a later Tweet (https://twitter.com/ShannonThrace/status/1756776030453272681), she cites Volokh Conspiracy (https://reason.com/volokh/2021/05/12/steelmanning-and-interpretive-charity/) who cites LW and Chana Messinger
projects / Ultimately_Untrue_Thought.git / blobdiff