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diff --git a/content/drafts/the-categories-were-made-for-man-in-order-to-make-predictions.md b/content/drafts/the-categories-were-made-for-man-in-order-to-make-predictions.md
index 7acfcb3..95537d9 100644 (file)
--- a/content/drafts/the-categories-were-made-for-man-in-order-to-make-predictions.md
+++ b/content/drafts/the-categories-were-made-for-man-in-order-to-make-predictions.md
@@ -76,6 +76,4 @@ _As it happens_, (I claim) the evidence that gender dysphoria is more than one t
 
 [explain the taxonomy, point out that it's possible to believe in a weaker version of it; link to Lawrence, &c.]
 
 
 [explain the taxonomy, point out that it's possible to believe in a weaker version of it; link to Lawrence, &c.]
 

-In less tolerant places and decades, where MtF transsexuals were very rare and had to try very hard to pass as women out of dire necessity, their impact on the social order and how people think about gender was minimal—there were just too few trans people to make much of a difference. (This is why experienced crossdressers report it being easier to pass in rural areas rather than 
-
-
+In less tolerant places and decades, where MtF transsexuals were very rare and had to try very hard to pass as women out of dire necessity, their impact on the social order and how people think about gender was minimal—there were just too few trans people to make much of a difference. (This is why experienced crossdressers report it being easier to pass in rural areas rather than cities with a large LGBT presence. Not as a matter of tolerance, but as a matter of _base rates_: it's harder to get clocked by people who aren't aware that being trans is even a thing.)

diff --git a/notes/categories-notes.md b/notes/categories-notes.md
index 743f79b..88229f8 100644 (file)
--- a/notes/categories-notes.md
+++ b/notes/categories-notes.md
@@ -163,3 +163,7 @@ from my SEXNET message—
 At least, not yet. The current situation in (progressive enclaves of) Western countries, where the need to respect everyone's self-identified gender identity is held sacrosanct, doesn't seem sustainable to me. With decreased gatekeeping and increased acceptance, you don't only get more AGPs transitioning who wouldn't have in the previous cultural regime; we should also expect transitioners on the margin to be less "suitable" (passable) with respect to traditional gatekeeper standards. That's how you end up with scenarios like that recounted by Prof. Bailey's correspondent in the "bad trans behavior" thread: if there are only a very few AGP trans women who are (out of necessity) trying very hard to pass, the impact on the social order is minimal. But as you start to have a nontrivial population of natal males attempting to live as women who are simultaneously identifiable (usually or often not passing as natal females) and noticeably not drawn from the same distribution of psychological traits as natal females, and you inject too many of them into social spaces and roles that developed around the psychology of natal females, that's going to change the dynamics of those spaces in ways that the incumbent women might not be happy with.
 
 "Development and Validation of the Transgender Inclusive Behavior Scale" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28406387
 At least, not yet. The current situation in (progressive enclaves of) Western countries, where the need to respect everyone's self-identified gender identity is held sacrosanct, doesn't seem sustainable to me. With decreased gatekeeping and increased acceptance, you don't only get more AGPs transitioning who wouldn't have in the previous cultural regime; we should also expect transitioners on the margin to be less "suitable" (passable) with respect to traditional gatekeeper standards. That's how you end up with scenarios like that recounted by Prof. Bailey's correspondent in the "bad trans behavior" thread: if there are only a very few AGP trans women who are (out of necessity) trying very hard to pass, the impact on the social order is minimal. But as you start to have a nontrivial population of natal males attempting to live as women who are simultaneously identifiable (usually or often not passing as natal females) and noticeably not drawn from the same distribution of psychological traits as natal females, and you inject too many of them into social spaces and roles that developed around the psychology of natal females, that's going to change the dynamics of those spaces in ways that the incumbent women might not be happy with.
 
 "Development and Validation of the Transgender Inclusive Behavior Scale" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28406387

+
+https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/02/when-i-was-raped-it-was-female-only-spaces-helped-me-recover
+
+caveats to the "male pattern of criminality" study: https://medium.com/@notCursedE/do-trans-women-retain-male-pattern-violence-df67954373fd